People are using blogs in more innovative ways and in re-creating older ways of doing things. Again via the Showcase I found the first part of a serialised story. The rest of the story forms a category and I'm only part way through but it's a good read so far. Another example of good writing shining on the blogosphere and interestingly recreating the fashion for serialised books ala late 19th century newspapers.
I've posted part of the first chapter to get you started.
Winter, the year of our Lord 1672, and I find myself looking down upon a small village nestled in the hills of the English countryside. A light dusting of snow lies across the rooftops and surrounding countryside. The muddy, rutted road is frozen hard, underlying the snow are treacherous ice patches to feet and hooves alike. The wind has a harsh, bitter edge and I pull the brim of my hat down and wrap my cloak tighter. Behind me I can hear the donkey that carries my tools and Harold calming his horse. “Here master?” he asks.
“This is the place.” I say, looking down once more at the thin trails of smoke coming from the chimneys. I have lost count of the number of these villages I have visited these last 5 years and how, come summer or winter, they all look the same too my hardened eyes. I know what I must do. Without a word I put my heels to my horse’s sides and begin the ride into the village, Harold following wordlessly.
This is my first visit to a village in over a month. I know the villagers will greet me with reverence and fear for they have called upon my services as a last resort. As I ride toward the centre I see the furtive glances, the crosses made upon chests, the hurrying of children from my sight as if even the merest glance from my eyes will condemn them. It does not bother me now. I am here to perform God’s work and the innocent have nothing to fear. A Higher Power than I will judge them – of this I am certain. I see squalor and decay wherever I look and I know for certain that these are desperate people, that I may be their only hope for something, but what? I have never understood what people see in what I do. I serve God in the best way I know how but these people seek only to serve the demon of revenge.
Slowly I ride towards the inn in the centre of town seeking somewhere to rest before meeting the mayor of this place. I am sure he expects me to come straight to the town hall but all this will be done in my time, not his. I am used to people waiting – waiting increases the anxiety and in their anger or haste they show me things I might not see otherwise. It is important I am sure – or at least I can show I am sure because that is what they want from me the most, the one thing man is not capable of. Infallibility.
Via the Showcase comes this extremely interesting post (alas, on Blogspot) from Blogosaurus, titled "Notes toward a sociology of Bush hatred" and posted on August 30th.
Since Bush's policies, like Clinton's, FDR's, Grover Cleveland's, and many other polarizing figures, are nowhere near extreme enough or unusual enough to warrant the incredible hatred and imputations of extreme evil aimed at him...the student of sociology has to look at other causes to explain this hysteria...
I'm tempted to post the whole thing, but instead go and have a yourself. It reaches an interesting conclusion.
Yet more proof China is as capitalist as the next country. China's athletes are returning home to a nation full of fawning admiration for their Olympic stars. For a nation that struggled to win medals for years it is a source of great pride to come second only to the USA in the medal count. But that's only one side of the equation.
Like other countries, China loves winners. So the Chinese medallists can expect a cash bonanza from both public and private purses. The central Government will give up to US$24,000 to each medallist and provinces will tip in more: for example Zhang Guozheng will get US$180,000 from Yunnan province. This is serious money in a country where the per capital GDP is around US$1,100. Next comes the advertisements, speeches and merchandising that is the regular meal ticket of successful atheletes. Hurdler Liu Xiang is in line for US$400,000 just from the central Government for his first Chinese atheletics gold.
However it's not all cheery. Basketballer Yao Ming is being called too "Western" and "individualistic" for expressing disappointment with his team's basketball loss in the first round. He was accused of "destroying the unity of the team." That they played terribly and deserved the criticism doesn't seem to be a factor.
Regardless of the financial gains these athletes are due to receive, they will soon find there's more to life. Indeed they could be the subject of a kindly documentary. In the words of Fumier:
Last night I watched the programme on Jade (?) about Fu Ming Xia (Fuk Ming Ha), the former high diving pin-up from the PRC who married Anthony Leung, the former high flying pin-head from the SAR.
Win the gold, win the money and win in love, even if your husband turns out to go from Financial Secretary to car driver in the time it takes to do a half twist double tumble dive. Happy days.
In return for China's cancellation of a military exercises near Taiwan, Taiwan has done likewise. On the other hand ex-President Jiang Zemin, still head of China's military, called for improvement's in China's weaponary because it is an important strategic task that will impact the country's lasting peace and stability. He also urged full preparation for winning a fight on the basis of existing weapons, improving the overall combat capability of military units and making preparations against war. It is hard to decide what to read into that: is it Jiang Zemin's attempt to re-assert his authority over the PLA and improve his standing over President Hu Jintao? Is it a deliberate racheting up in China's anti-Taiwan rhetoric? Most likely a combination of both.
Hong Kong's Polytechnic University students are in trouble for being typical university students. Immature, sexist and lewd behaviour is the hallmark of a young university student. From the SCMP:
One parent said students were forced to simulate sex acts in a game organised by the business faculty. Females were asked to sip from a soft drink from between the thighs of male students. Participants were also asked to lap up chocolate or tomato sauce sprayed on a man or sanitary napkins.
Students from the health and social sciences faculty said 120 new students were told to kiss strangers on the lips, ask them for tampons or condoms and shout words referring to sex or genitals. Losers in orientation games were required to stick out their tongues for members of the opposite sex to circle with their tongues.
I expect enrolments to jump markedly at Poly U. Hell, I'm thinking of enrolling myself. Who knew that business students could be so much fun?
It really isn't easy being a Hong Kong tycoon. Electronics billionaire William Mong was fined a massive HK$2,500 yesterday for a breach of securities law. His offence? He forgot that he bought HK$40 million of shares in Bank of East Asia when he became a director of the company. In a demonstration of the speed with which HK justice works, the offence occured in 1995.
Mr. Mong's defense was simple: he has so much money he couldn't be on top of little things like this. The only problem is he signed the cheque for the shares and there were minutes of the board meeting he chaired authorising the purchase.
I'm sure he spent more on lunch than the fine. But I'm amazed he found a sober barrister to help him.
Arthur Chrenkoff's Good news from Iraq series continues (it is cross posted at his own blog and at the WSJ). For a country that is being rebuilt almost from scratch it is remarkable to see the progress being made on so many fronts. It is information you'll never see via established media channels, because good news doesn't sell...or perhaps doesn't meet with the media's natural biases on this story. Arthur's regular reports are outstanding pieces of true journalism and it's well worth investing your time looking through it all. What really stands out is the length of each report: there is plenty of good news in Iraq and we are lucky that Arthur has the foresight to put this regular compilation together.
Regardless of your views of the merits of the war, it is vital to get Iraq's rebuilding right. It seems that many of the critics of Bush and the Iraq war are still arguing the war when the far more important debate should be about the peace. On that score overall America is doing a good job.
Andrea from T-Salon has posted on the story on the Free Culture Chinese translation project. It's an amazing story of collaborative effort by Chinese bloggers and could be the first of many such projects to come. She hopes more people in the world can understand the kind of positive changes that the Chinese are trying to bring in China. So do I. And lest you think the CCP aren't taking blogging seriously, read this.
"Super size" me: the law moves slowly when it comes to Hong Kong's favourite thing.
BWG notes the canny marketing of moon-cakes and supply creating its own demand.
Phil fisks Tung. It's like shooting a fish in a barrel.
ESWN has the details of the second article attacking China's Central Propaganda Department.
Richard asks if China can help save a piece of American culture?
Hong Kong's media may be engaging in self-censorship, or perhaps they've decided they are finally interesting in decent programming? It's effectively Government owned TV anyway.
Even top members of China's Government cannot agree on the quantum of unpaid farmer-workers' wages.
China's soft power is growing and Peking Dork says it signals the end of any chance of Taiwan independence. Dan Drezner looks at China's growing influence as a regional power; thinking about one small aspect of the US's current approach to China it seems the US isn't sure whether to treat China as a threat or opportunity.
Cracking down on pirated copyright has lead to an example being made of a US citizen, says Fons, and it is the price of crossing a sometimes murky line.
With the end of the Athens Olympics, the focus switches to Beijing and it is already having an impact.
China's found a hot new foreign investment prospect.
Stephen is usually the expert on all things concerning the Uighurs, Muslim natives of China's Xinjiang province. This week's Economist looks at the attempt by China to "Hanify" the province by enticing immigration by Han Chinese via subsidies, preferences and other means. This is the same policy followed in Tibet. The article is reproduced in the Extended Entry.
A key point is that with tacit American agreement China has been branded Uighurs as terrorists and clamping down on them, even for "splittist thought". As is so often the case, this radicalises the population and drowns out the voices of moderates who are interested only in autonomy, not independence. China's far-flung provinces are a constant source of worry for Beijing and this remains the case in such a vast country. It deals with it in the only way it knows how: by suppression. Throughout history that has been the Chinese way. Unfortunately for the Uighurs tehy are a small population in an obscure and non-strategic part of the world. The Hanification will continue until Xinjiang becomes a Chinese province in practice as well as in name.
IDH KAH Mosque, a towering structure in central Kashgar, the westernmost city in China's vast province of Xinjiang, has always been a prime meeting place for Uighurs, the Muslim Turkic people who historically dominated Xinjiang. The square outside the mosque, venerated in Uighur writing and song, used to look like Amman or Tashkent, full of skullcap-wearing Muslim men, vendors selling Arabic CDs, and kebab sellers carving hunks of fatty lamb from steaming carcasses.
These days, though, the area increasingly resembles Shanghai or Shenzhen. In the old city of Kashgar, Uighurs sit out in front of their ancient mud-brick homes and watch Chinese building workers dig huge ditches in front of their doors in preparation for their destruction. Chinese firms are razing traditional homes near the mosque—without, the Uighurs complain, paying anything close to decent compensation—in order to build flashy new shopping centres and apartments catering to the ethnic Chinese who are flooding in to Kashgar. For decades the government in Beijing has relocated Han Chinese to Xinjiang to dilute Uighur influence over the restive province, which before 1949 was briefly an independent state. But until recently most Chinese migrants went to Xinjiang's east, which had fewer Uighur people. Now, with the construction of a new railway and an oil pipeline to western Xinjiang, and large state subsidies there for Chinese contractors, the Chinese are encroaching on areas, such as Kashgar, that the Uighurs consider their cultural heartland. Combined with a crackdown on Uighur political and religious activity, this has made Xinjiang an edgy place.
The shift in Xinjiang's population is striking. China's most recent census showed the Han Chinese population rising twice as quickly in Xinjiang as the Uighur population. And these figures do not take into count the tens of thousands of Chinese “migrant workers” who come to Xinjiang for building jobs and never leave. This shift is obvious on the ground. Large sections of southern Kashgar, situated around the Wenzhou Hotel (Wenzhou is a city in eastern China), are filled with Chinese-owned businesses, many of which reportedly get help from local officials when competing with Uighur firms. Homes and offices for Chinese are springing up throughout Kashgar over the rubble of Uighur buildings.
Meanwhile, since September 11th 2001, Beijing has tried to link Uighur nationalist groups to al-Qaeda, even announcing that around 1,000 Uighurs trained with Osama bin Laden's organisation. A few Uighurs did indeed fight for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but most support non-violence, and there is little evidence of significant al-Qaeda links. Yet America at first played along with Beijing's fiction, placing an obscure Uighur group on its list of international terror groups, a designation China used to tar all Uighurs as terrorists. (China now defines a terrorist in Xinjiang as anyone who thinks “separatist thoughts”.) Under this pretext, China has over the past two years detained tens of thousands of people in Xinjiang—and executed many of them, according to Amnesty International. The authorities in Beijing recently said that this crackdown would continue indefinitely.
All this does not bode well for Xinjiang's future. Uighurs report that small-scale clashes break out nearly every day between Chinese and Uighurs in Xinjiang's western cities. The instability scares off foreign investors—foreign oil firms have pulled out of the pipeline project—which might be more willing to employ Uighurs than Chinese state companies are. And moderate Uighurs, who want autonomy but not necessarily independence, worry that repression and Chinese immigration are playing into the hands of the most hardline, conservative elements in Uighur society. Though the Uighurs historically were among the world's most liberal and pro-western Muslims, fundamentalist Islam is gaining sway among young Uighur men.
Still, there is hope. Recognising the threat posed by hardliners, the leading moderate Uighur diaspora organisations, which used to spend most of their time squabbling, came together at a conference in Germany in April to unite behind one leader, Erkin Alptekin. The Uighurs hope that Mr Alptekin, the son of a pre-1949 president of independent Xinjiang, can become their Dalai Lama, promoting the Uighur cause in the West and serving as a moderate, unifying force for their nation. Even some American officials are beginning to realise that China's definition of “terrorism” simply means anyone who opposes Beijing. When Mr Alptekin visited Washington earlier this summer, he was feted by congressional staffers, while the National Endowment for Democracy, which gets funding from Congress, has recently given a grant to a moderate Uighur exile group in America.
there is even less evidence of significant al-Qaeda links for the case of iraq. but an independent nation (not a province) was termed terrorist, invaded and occupied.
Sure, but as far as I understand it the differences include that the Uighurs did not disobey UN resolutions for years, nor did they invade Kuwait and then fail to abide by the terms of surrender, nor did they fully and certifiably give up all information on weapons programs and research, nor did they kick out UN weapons inspection teams, nor did they adopt a scorched earthy policy as they retreated from their invasion of Kuwait, to name but a few points where the comparison falls down.
There is in fact so little in comparing the two situations it makes me wonder what the basis for your comment actually is.
My question to you, Iraqcries, is should Sadaam still be in power? Would that make the world a better place than it is today? I think most Iraqis themselves prefer life today.
Finally my point is that China is using the cover of the war on terror to suppress dissent, much like Russia with Chechenya. How my views on Iraq affect my views on these situations escapes me except perhaps in an extremely broad manner. While Iraq is important it is not material to the situation in Xinjiang nor is it comparable.
i have been xinjiang, most uighurs are happy with the modernization that progress has brought them. electricity, health care and clean water. highways have also allowed for agricultural products to reach the cities which have improved the lot of the uighur farmers.
of course there are problems but what can one expect when xinjiang is right next to afghanistan and pakistan.
If we're talking about Iraq's soccer team, then there's also this to consider.
I've not been to Xinjiang and I know it's a volatile region. I also accept that China has done much to modernise the area. It is similar to the argument I dealt with last week by Philip Bowring on how Japan was "weclomed" by many nations in Asia at the start of WW2. It seems that China is being heavy handed in creating Xinjiang province in the image it desires.
perhaps the chinese should create reservations. those uighurs who want can live there and practice their religion and culture at their own pace. seems to work for the native americans.
"i have been xinjiang, most uighurs are happy with the modernization that progress has brought them"
Thank God to the Chinese for bringing "modernisation" to the poor Uygurs. The "poor" Uygurs are ancestral owners of 1/6th of China's total teritory and most of its oil wealth. Do you think modernisation is being brought for the benefit of the poor Uygurs?
Yes, lets round up 9 million of arguably , culturally and historically, the most significant peoples of Central Asia and put them in reservations in the Taklamakan desert.
Throw in some sanitation, couple of guard dogs and some barbed wire and they can dance their unique dances, play their unique music and practice their unique culture till the camels come home.
The Democrat convention is now nothing but a memory and the impact blogging had on the event can be measured in bee's dicks. Now it's the turn of the RNCBloggers.. Let's hope they learnt something from the DNC...less "I just met" wonderment and more solid news and reporting would be a start.
The Sydney Morning Herald has an article saying one of the key causes of the world's next bout of inflation will be because of Chinese farmers. The arguement runs that China's armies of surplus labour are quickly being absorbed, leading to labour shortages and bottle-necks in some parts of China. This is forcing up wages just as food prices are rising due to less farmable land (as factories replace farms) and a shrinking pool of rural labour (because money have already left for the cities). Rising agricultural subsidies complete the picture. Rising rural standards of living and wages means less leaving to join the armies of migrant labour.
In other words, as China becomes more prosperous, especially in more rural areas, the labour surplus will evaporate. It seems only partially true. China's inflation problem is more likely to have come from rising energy and commodity prices combined with an economy that was growing too fast. However these changes in the structure of its labour force will have long term implications. The problem is these are 10-15 years from today, whereas creeping inflation is a problem now. And the article seems to miss a key point, which is the large number of underemployed people still "working" in state-owned enterprises.
However the most important thing is the simplest: the article simply reflects China's growing wealth. What it forgets is the extremely low base it is coming off - China can afford to grow (albeit sustainably) at a rapid clip for many years without sparking inflation. There are plenty of other causes to blame - a partial tightening in China's labour market is not.
It is times like this that I'm glad I'm not in Australia. To call an election during that most important time of year is an outrage...or part of the plan.
The SCMP had a front page article outlining some of the costs in the new strict US immigration system. And it isn't China that is complaining: it is American businesses and universities.
American businesses on the mainland say "undignified" US visa application processes are costing companies billions in lost revenue and straining Sino-US ties.
A report by the American Chamber of Commerce in China...says members have seen a big drop in exports to the mainland because Chinese officials and customers do not want to travel to the US. The report blames (this) on an over-stringent visa application process that include mandatory fingerprinting and a lengthy approval period.
...a survey commissioned by eight American businesses estimated more than US$30 billion had been lost between July 2002 and March 2004 because of visa delays and denials.
US visa approvals for mainland travellers last year were down nearly 40% from the 2001 peak. There were 25% fewer applicants.
While the quantum of some of the numbers can be debated, the effects cannot. Other geopolitical considerations aside, China has never been considered part of the global war on terror. The US's immigration scheme is forcing Chinese students to look elsewhere for study, Chinese businessmen elsewhere for opportunities and Chinese tourists for elsewhere to visit. It may be that the US is prepared to pay that price to stay vigilant. But it is a significant and growing cost. Culturally many Chinese visa applicants feel humiliated by the application procedure, as would anyone expected to be fingerprinted and have full background checks. It will continue to drive a wedge between the world's superpower and the world's emerging superpower at a time the world can least afford it, politically and economically.
Ironically it is US business that is being hurt most by this policy.
There has been plenty of fussing over the benefits and costs of genetically modified agriculture. There are moral and ethical considerations with such powerful technology. Unless, of course, you're in the drugs industry. From the Sunday SCMP:
Colombian police have discovered a new, genetically modified variety of the coca plant that not only yields more cocaine but also produces a drug of higher purity. The authorities claim the drug cartels paid scientists more than US$150 million to develop the new plant strain...
Growing to a heigh of 2.5 metres and resistant to toxins used by the officials to readicate coca plants, the new breed was developed by cross-breeding strains from Peru with potent Colombian varieties and enhancing them unsing genetic engineering techniques.
And people think drug cartels are bad when in fact they are at the very forefront of science. Could a Nobel Prize be heading to Mendelin sometime soon?
China is tackling its growing AIDS problem, slowly but surely. Over the weekend in Beijing the NPC passed laws making the collection of blood illegal; outlaws discrimination against AIDS victims and provides money for various lower Government levels to deal with AIDS. China had a string of scandals during the 1990s where villagers and peasants became infected with AIDS after donating blood in what can be best described as dodgy conditions. The collection of blood was already illegal but the new law now makes it illegal to deal in the illegally collected blood as well.
Xinhua quotes an estimate of 840,000 people with AIDS in China.
The true number is likely to be higher, but thankfully the disease is not yet at crisis level in the country. While its response to the disease has been slow, it is heartening to see that China is moving in the right direction. The problem will be in filtering the efforts of Beijing to deal with AIDS down to the provinces and regions and even right down to village level to have a real effect. Like many things in China, good intentions from Beijing do not always translate into action on the ground.
Of course it's at a crisis level, because no one can be sure if the standard answer is the actual one. AIDS infections rates are at crisis levels all over the world.
Yesterday's brit went well. I managed to only cry once: when I was presented with the final bill. Suffice to say BL now has Hong Kong's most expensive penis. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go and find a second job.
It seems like only a year ago I started this blog. Mostly because it was.
To celebrate I was going to indulge in an orgy of hubris and narcissism. I could recount how I was introduced to blogs - the merry chuckling of a co-worker over a post at Conrad's. I justified it by thinking of it as a way to keep family and friends in touch with our adventures in the mysterious Orient. But when your first post was:
hi paul
it's best to look to the future instead. You can peruse some of my favourite posts. This site has given me a chance to endlessly sprout off about anything and everything, and amazingly people decide they want to read it. Over the past year the site has broadened its remit, so that now it covers the original family fare and reflections on life in Hong Kong, with a liberal dose of stories about one of the most fascinating places in the world: China and Asia. Sprinkle in a mix of other random bits and pieces and that's what we've got today. Will it be like this tomorrow? Who knows? The site goes wherever my whim takes me. You're welcome to stay for the ride.
But what I've got most out of this site over the past year is all the people I've met, both online and in person. I've a bulging email folder with emails from all sorts of people I would never have otherwise met. I've had the pleasure of breaking bread with some of my favourite bloggers, such as Pixy and Helen. These are relationships that I cherish and am grateful for: it has exapnded my world and made me better for it. I've learnt a hell of a lot from these people and from writing this site: that has made it all more than worthwhile. The one thing that scares me (besides makeovers by JC and PB) is that I stop exercising my mind. This site and the many others that I read have kept at least that part of my body fitter than ever.
This has already been a busy week. First BL's arrival seemed to drag in plenty of comments and links. Thanks for all the kind wishes. The site redesign seems popular too - a nice first birthday present from me to the site. If for some reason you've been lurking for a while but never got around to saying something, NOW is the time to start. Regular commenters and linkers are also welcomed. While modesty prevents me from singing my own praises, nothing can stop you from doing it. So get to it. In return all I can offer more of the same. Please don't let that put you off.
UPDATE: It appears I share the day with Allah. Obviously wasn't much on TV anywhere in the world last August 27th.
I've not really followed the whole controversy over John Kerry and the Swift Boat hubub, partly because it seems to me that at least Kerry actually went to Vietnam and faced bullets while many of his contempararies were running for cover (see both George W. and Bill Clinton). And I accept that Kerry made his Vietnam service a big part of his campaign, but I would have thought most people were more interested in what both he and George W. are going to do about the war on terror, the deficit, jobs, the environment, oil and the myriad other challenges facing America right now. You know, living in the present rather than the past and all that. After all, if American voters were worried about moral integrity, Bill Clinton would be flipping burgers in downtown Little Rock rather than plugging his book.
Anyhow, Bill has finally got around to using his blog for good, by explaining the whole Swift Boat thing. Now it still doesn't make any sense but at least you can have a laugh (and for a change it's with Bill, not at Bill).
No one knows what Kerry will do about those things, because Kerry has refused to talk about them, responding to every question, quite literally, with "when I was in Vietnam."
Okay, John, you want to talk about Vietnam, let's talk about Vietnam bitch.
He also bragged that, if anyone wanted to question his record they should "bring it on".
Okay. Here it is.
Now, suddenly, he's staggering around the ring holding his belly and waiving his arms like Roberto Duran, crying "no mas, no mas"
Just wanted to point out that at the time Bush joined the National Guard and volunteered for flying, pilots from his unit were being sent to Vietnam on a regular basis. Kerry tried to get a deferment, failed, volunteered for the pansiest Navy assignment in Vietnam he could get, which unfortunately turned into more hazardous duty than he wished.
As a former servicemember, I knew the minute Kerry started pushing the heroism he was a warrior wannabe. If you are one, you don't need to TALK about it. Although I am an independent, his conduct in this one area has caused me to question his ability and character. He comes across as a real opportunist.
Most people spend a lot of time in an effort to minimise their tax. Not, however, the Hong Kong Jockey Club. They have proudly displayed an advertisement in the SCMP stating they paid HK$12.2 billion in tax, making up 11.5% of all HK Government revenue for last year. In other words, gambling duties are one of the major sources of Government revenue in HK and form a hidden tax on the gamblers of HK. Additionally the Jockey Club gave out HK$975 million in charitable donations, just to make everyone realise that while gambling is "bad", the results are "good". Many of these projects would otherwise be the responsability of the Government or not occur at all. So it could be considered quasi-Government spending instead. It is why the odds are stacked against the humble punter - the Jockey Club and Government are happily fleecing them and wondering why illegal bookmaking flourishes in the city.
In case the message was too subtle, the thoughtful graphic artists have put the numbers in the form of a petrol pump. With the current strong state of the price of oil and fears it is heading even higher, it seems particularly apt.
Forget about the cashless society. The SCMP reports on a robbery yesterday:
Two bicycle-riding robbers escaped with a handbag containing $400,000 after threatening a pursuing off-duty policeman with what appeared to be a pistol in Fanling yesterday. One robber pointed a handgun or a replica at the unarmed sergeant from about a metre away, ordering him to stop the chase...Police said the victim had been waiting for the bank to open. It is understood the money was to be deposited to settle the recent purchase of a mainland house.
In this modern era of ATMs, internet and phone banking, credit cards and cheques, it seems to be that many cannot let go of the folding stuff. What is it with Hong Kongers and their fascination with cash? Any trip to the races or to the casinos of Macau will show you multitudes of HK residents with massive rolls of money.
As I understand it there hasn't been a significant bank collapse in Hong Kong in years. So why people walk the streets with their life savings in their handbags remains a mystery to me. Banks, for all their faults, are usually a good way to safely keep your money. Perhaps it's time for another Government education campaign.
Many HK people remember, either first hand or one generation back, when all their money in the so-called "safe" banks were confiscated. Uncle Mao didn't have much use for people with money in the bank. Just for their money.
HK people probably have a lot of gold and diamonds too.
Remember that FDR confiscated all American's gold around 1933 or 1934 too. Gold was illegal for an American to own.
Clearly my father and I need to have words. If he is going to be so selfish as not to become Prime Minister for my benefit then what's the point. Just ask Mark or Tim.
Listen sonny Jim, As a child you aways wanted to be prime minister. In the best traditions of fatherhood, I sacrificed everything so that you might succeed in your chosen career. Instead you ended up a capitalist banker in communist Hong Kong.
Luckily you produce the best children.
Time again to check out the best that Asian blogging has to offer...
Hong Kong, Taiwan and China
Hong Kong will get universal suffrage, says the CCP. It just has to pick the right candidates first. While on HK elections, ESWN follows the latest efforts by the Democratic Party to shoot itself in the foot. He also looks at the aftermath of the politician and the hooker and notes the irony that international pressure triumphed over the rule of law. Helpfully Hemlock has produced a leaflet for the hapless Democrats to use (see Wednesday, Aug 25th, or the pink thing in the middle).
Asia Media covers the trial of the 2 authors of a book on China's peasantry and the difficulties they face. Metanoiac has more on this.
Minerva says in Taiwan even the rain and voodoo are part of politics.
Phil has already reviewed the HK Olympic homecoming. He also has the riots in Hong Kong, the city where beer beats dead Commies every time.
Tom Plate covers the thoughts of a retiring US naval commander on the Asia-Pacific region.
China may be dragged into the US Presidential campaign, this time in the murky area of donations. Conrad's also on the case. It seems the dirty tricks machine is working overtime at the moment.
China is currently celebrating Deng Xiapong's 100th anniversary of birth. Richard links to an IHT article questioning his legacy and Giles compares the efforts of Britain and China.
Fumier reports on the decline and fall of a once great HK institution.
Supernaut has an article on the "truth" of the Cultural Revolution.
The home of the "laissez-faire" economy is becoming more monopolistic by the day, says Tom. He also covers HK's pathetic response to the challenge issued by Singapore's elder patriarch, Lee Kuan Yew. Perhaps because LKY is right. There's more on the whole thing at CSR Asia.
China's now bailing out the private sector as well as the public, says Fons. He also looks at China's massive unpaid wages bill.
In the irony department, even suicide isn't easy in China.
The Black China Hand says the Qing dynasty was actually China's best.
Kimchee GI covers the effects of the US troop realignment on Korea and the contrasting views of Bush and Kerry on the matter. GI Korea explains the attitude of US troops actually in Korea (via FY).
I've tried to keep this an Olympics free zone. But Korea has got its collective knickers in a twist over the controversy on Korea's Gymnastic medals: start here and over at Cathrtidae too, then move along to here, the next instalment here, and if you're still with us finish off here. Marmot thinks the Korean was screwed by the bad judging. The Olympics and poor judging: who would have thought?
Jodi notes some very different interpretations between American and Korean papers of the same event.
Marmot has all things sex and p0rn in Korea covered, so to speak, including the battle royale of Japanese p0rn queens.
SE Asia
Myrick looks at the overturning of the convictions of the Bali bombers.
Singapore's new Emperor PM is slowly opening the door to political expression. Slowly. The new PM has also decided to plunge into the China/Taiwan dispute following his visit to Taiwan last month.
I'm pleased to say Friskodude has spawned something of a similar idea to this series (for example here). It links to blogs and newspaper reports around the region. Check it out.
Thanks to Robyn from Sekimori. I hope you like the new design. It survived a hurricane in Florida, a new tooth, a new baby, a difficult to please client and numerous technical issues to complicated for me to explain because I don't understand them myself.
As always, feedback appreciated.
UPDATE: One of the improvements is you are now able to take this blog with you! For those with PDAs, try this handy link. It also appears at the bottom of the left sidebar.
shaky, unfortunately for this particular design (which had to be fixed-width due to the column detail and header graphic) the center column had to be this thin - as two sidebars were requested - and otherwise those stuck at lower resolutions would be forced to deal with horizontal scroll.
cnn.com is actually has a thinner "main column" of text by 80 pixels, so it just depends on how you judge size. ;-)
Simon is being very trendy with the narrow posting area. It is the fashion this season for blogs! Buck up everyone,just like high heels may not be comforatable, but they look good!
Philip Bowring's op-ed on Asia's relationship with Japan in the IHT is another staggering example of historical revisionism and confused clap-trap. He argues that Japan gets a bad rap in Asia, especially from Koreans and China that is not entirely deserved because some welcomed the Japanese with open arms in WW2 and earlier. He follows the Monty Python school: "What have the Romans ever done for us, except for education, roads, water, etc?" I'm sure many residents of Korea and Nanjing would have been happy to develop these things on their own without their Japanese overlords. Bowring amazingly compares Japan's lack of contrition to the West's lack of contrition for its "imperialism" in Asia. Finally he calls Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's new PM, to heel for daring to say Taiwan shouldn't aspire to independence. Bowring cites Singapore's history as the basis for this, even when modern geopolitical realities mean the Taiwan issue is far bigger and deadly than the Singaporean one in the 60s.
But therein lies the problem: Bowring seems to have little grasp of reality.
I would JT, but it's the wrong paper and there doesn't seem much point. I don't know if you saw Bowring's laughable followup to my letter in his own letter to the editor over Darfur. Really he keeps embarassing himself. I need to stop reading his claptrap.
Simon: I'm sure many residents of Korea and Nanjing would have been happy to develop these things on their own without their Japanese overlords.
Without Japanese occupation, Korea would today be part of China, just like Tibet. And China's record of the treatment of its own people is far worse than that of the Japanese. No comparison at all. Read a little Chinese history, and you'll note that Nanjing-style massacres were not particularly unusual. Nanjing's problem was that it got liberated from the Japanese and suffered both KMT and Communist rule, on top of what it endured under the Japanese.
It's a hypothetical so we'll never know. It's impossible to say that Korea would be part of China today if not for Japan. It's like saying France would be part of Germany if not for the UK and the USA.
I accept China has done plenty of disgusting things to its own citizenry over the years and while Nanjing was horrid it was not exceptional. However I still cannot reconcile Mr Bowring's contention that many people in Asia welcomed Japan as liberators with any reading of history that I can find.
If you have something then please point me to it and I'll gladly change my mind.
Hong Kong is in the process of discovering a new species and all anyone can do is complain. The new animal is capable of surviving in some of the most hostile conditions known to mankind: HK's public swimming pools. For the past we there have been daily discoverys of red bloodworms in various public pools in HK. How animals can survive such high concerntrations of chlorine will remain a mystery forever.
The good news is now HK's men in blue are on the case. I'm glad they'll be spending their time hunting for worm saboteurs rather than those that like to put bodies in suitcases and torch them. These worms could be dangerous.
It is common custom to celebrate the arrival of a baby with the ancient "headwetting" ceremony. This could dove-tail nicely with a get-together of some of Hong Kong's finest devotees and practicioners of the art (it's certainly not a science) of blogging.
When: Wednesday, 1st Sept.
Where: Start at Stormy Weather in Lan Kwai Fong
Time: Whenever I can get there. Probably about 7:30pm
I will shout the first drink to celebrate. This even includes Dr. George Adams. In order to take advantage of this offer, you must identify yourself to me using the secret password: "Rhinoceroses mating." The more the merrier so please pass the word along.
Looks like a girl lying on her back, arms up and against the car, with a guy infront of her? Maybe they were celebrating the purchase of their new vehicle? Or inspired by your tales of new babies?
;-)
Kolya
Posted by Kolya Miller at August 26, 2004 01:22 AM
There are many stories that will be retold in the coming days concerning the birth. But one needs to be shared now.
Little BL is slightly jaundiced. Mrs M and he were discharged yesterday but had to go back for another test today and will have another on Friday. I have some health insurance so the hospital rang the insurance company to check how much they pay out on the tests (here's a hint as to the insurance company's identity). The insurance company informed the hospital they will not pay out on the tests for BL. Why? Because he is not yet a member of the fund. It doesn't matter that he is 4 days old; that he doesn't even yet have a birth certificate; and that he isn't registered because he's only just got home and there are more important things to worry about than the health fund.
A pea-brained peabody from An Insurance Agency said there was no way they would cover these costs because Mrs M and BL had already been discharged and they were considered no longer part of the birth. Given that having a birth and brit in this city is costing me the GDP of an economically troubled Asian nation already, not to mention other hassles that will be revealed in time, it remains to be proven that real people actually work in insurance companies. Especially when they have the chutzpah to put out press releases saying Hong Kongers are underinsured (NOTE: it's the same link as above, I'm just pointing out the irony).
The NYT times is reporting on China's latest attempt to influence Hong Kong's voters: table tennis. The small problem is the SCMP reports ticket sales were slow, with the lone queuer at City Hall complaining the HK$20 cost and comparing it with the free showing of China astronaut Yang Liwei. The Leisure and Cultural Services Department referred inquiries to the HK Olympic Committee which referred inquiries to the LCSD.
If China were serious about influencing the election, they'd stop with all this namby-pamby stuff and cut to the chase: offering decent inducements to vote for the "right" candidates.
On top of all the regular dramas that come with a new-born, particularly a Jewish boy (let's just say the brit will be a truly mutlinational affair with a significant financial component) in Hong Kong, it is looking more and more likely that PB is going to be a left-hander.
i know this is a religious thing but how someone can inflict a circumcision on their child is completely beyond me. if it was my worst enemy, say the head of i.t. at a certain large american bank, then maybe i could envision it as an appropriate torture but under no other circumstances is it acceptable in my mind - especially on religious grounds when the poor little mite hasn't even had a chance to work out the religion and whether he believes in it or not.
Do you children enjoy playing "Simon Says"?
I have a warning for you, 'Watch your children well, for they'll never be the same, especially the newborn(soon he will be kicking dad's butt on the computer, then racing him to the car keys).
Enjoy them well
Thank you to everyone for the good wishes. Everyone is doing well.
Now to keep you going...as part of the Winds of Change team I provide a monthly briefing on Asian goings-on, particularly China and SE Asia. I thought this would give me a good opportunity to review the collection of "Asia by Blogs" from the past few weeks and pull together some of the highlights and lowlights. There will be less emphasis on Korean news because someone else is doing a Korean briefing...plus it leaves more room to look at the rest of Asia. As usual there will also be some new links from around the Asian blogging community.
Think of this as one of those "Best of" albums, even though the band is less than a year old and you've only heard one of the songs. More seriously if you haven't had a chance to follow the links from this series, this should give you a good taste of the high quality and wide variety of Asian blogs.
China, Taiwan and Hong Kong
Tom reports on Hong Kong's newest metallic import from Europe. Laosan talks about China's stunning early success at the Olympics. The Ruck talks about China's outshooting the gun-loving USA. While on sport there was the Asia Cup soccer final between Japan and China. ACB was looking at the build-up the final. Fumier congratulated Japan on their weekend soccer win but says China has won too. ESWN wraps-up the stories and photos of the weekend's Asia Cup from the press. FY looks at the whole mess from Korea, saying it proves China's not ready for an Olympics. Jodi also has more. The Ruck has photos and also has some strongly worded thoughts on the hooliganism of China's fans. ESWN looks at passion in soccer and rates the Asia Cup final.
Chris looks at the problems with Hong Kong's list system of voting in the upcoming LegCo elections. Hong Kong was titillated with when a LegCo candidate was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in China. ESWN notes significant differences between the English and Chinese language versions of events. He also notes the rapid retreat by HK's Democrats in claiming political persecution.
ESWN continues his translation of the controversial study of China's peasantry that's been banned on the Mainland.
ALN reports that doing good deeds in China sometimes has a price.
Richard looks at the release of a book written in 1989 that predicted many of the problems now emerging in the world's greatest toilet bowl: the Three Gorges Dam.
Slowly but surely Putonghua (Mandarin) is asserting itself as China's national language, but at what cost? Jodi takes a look at the same issue.
"The sloppy baker" finds some say it is a matter of not if but when China will invade Taiwan, while Donald Sensing takes another look at the potential for China to invade Taiwan.
After all the fuss over Hong Kong's ICAC raids on newspapers, it turns out all they had to do was ask.
China is facing a shortage of migrant labour for the first time in 20 years. ALN hasplentymoreabout it including why, as does China Herald. ALN also says China is not just attracting investment, it is starting to become a big investor itself.
Fons says China's efforts at clamping down on online p0rn has been primitive and largely unsuccessful.
Danwei has a list of China's top Google searches for July. Also Google never cut a deal with China's censors, according to one of its founders.
Taiping talks about the emergence of China as a force in modern architecture.
John at LiC talks about China's latest fashion craze.
Also at LiC Edward Hugh says the China economic slowdown has begun; the question is how will it end?
ESWN talks about sales training in China, the begging way. He also highlights two very different approaches to reporting the same event. There's additional commentary on this from ALN and CSR Asia.
Chris has a look at Hong Kong's alleged paper of record: the South China Morning Post. Marmot says Korean and Chinese journalists are at war.
Stephen says when the US releases Uygurs from Guatanamo Bay, they won't be going back to China. There are good reasons why. He also summarises the recent history and current suppression of China's Uygur population.
Andrea wonders if China is actually worried by a possible reunification of Korea?
Via LiC I came across this survey of differences in attitudes between Chinese and American students on a range of issues. Also via LiC is this article by Shelley Timmins on the differences between Chinese people and Chinese tourists.
Ralph Jennings talks about the case of Zhao Yan, the Chinese citizen bashed by a US border guard, and how it is being used as a pawn in a propaganda campaign. It also points out some stark differences in how the case is being handled to how it would be handled in China. ESWN says stupidity can be a two-way street in dealings between East and West. He also updates the facts on the case of Zhao Yan, the Chinese woman in question.
ACB says China has compiled a summary of China's assessments of various naval powers.
They say that sex sells...firstly Danwei says sex education classes are starting early in China. Secondly there was another trade fair in China: the adult toy expo. It includes this interesting bit: "In Australia we sell three million vibrators per year, mostly made in China," said Michael Rutner, of 'Next to nothing'. That means on average one vibrator for every sexual active woman." Now you know why Aussie women smile so much.
Korea and Japan
Again with all things Olympic, Tom talks about Japan's latest efforts to capture Olympic gold, and they are extreme. It's not the Olympics butJodi follows Bobby Fischer's Japanese chess game.
Marmot and Cathartidae covered the ongoing tussle between Korea and China over that most delicate of topics: history. Marmot goes through the background of this tiff here. Oranckay has more and thinks the spat will serve to cure those in Korea fixated with China. Marmot has plenty more on the Koguryo controversy here and here.
Coinciding with Liberation Day in Korea (FY has the historical details) Kimchee GI translates an article that says South Korea's economy is being dragged down by left wing values.
Jodi talks about some forgotten survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. She also explains why it's not good to be a Korean dog when it gets hot.
South Korea was trying to ban reporting on its deployment of troops to Iraq.
Just in case readers in America thought North Korea was nothing to worry about, maybe you should thinkagain
SE Asia
Everybody is blogging these days...although most people just stop blogging when they've had enough instead of abdicating their throne.
First Conrad says "Crooks Endorse Fool", then Myrick finds a coalition of the dispicable building in Indonesia. Myrick also disagrees with Lee Kwan Yew about what Beijing did in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
The Swanker says cedrtain prisoners were celebrating Indonesia's Independence Day; there may even be a family reunion in the offing, including mass murderers. Jakartass talks about some who didn't get to celebrate the big day and excerpts an editorial that hopes the day will be a reason to look forward as well as back. The Swanker says another crook in Indonesia's military got away with it. Jodi also takes an insightful look at the mess. Jakartass looks at Indonesia's judicial system and finds it wanting. Conrad asks why foreigners would bother investing in Indonesia.
Mr. Brown says political freedom may be coming to Singapore, via the mobile phone. Apparently Singapore is not even a U.S. ally. Rajan said happy birthday, Singapore. Nicholas looks at the Singaporean blogging of its National Day and isn't impressed; instead he gives a dose of realism. Mr. Brown asks is Singapore a country or a child-care centre? (also at Andrea)
Giles has found an alternative to the traditional wedding cake in the Philippines.
Jodi follows the aftermath of Malaysia's PM remarks on religious tolerance and how it took less than a week for tolerance to give way to warring. She also talks about religious tolerance (or lack thereof) in Asia.
CC asks where are the Philippine press in reporting on the revelations of Gracia Burnham and he takes the Philippine Government to task over its spin efforts on the testimony. Wretchard talks about the whole mess in the Southern Philippines and wonders how much (if at all) the US should help.
Jodi measures the toll of the massive monsoons that wrecked havoc over South Asia.
Via Doug comes this article on how it can be tough for single Western women living in Asia (printed from the Asia Wall St Journal from September 2003).
In the history section, Joel looks at some of the last holdouts from WW2.
(This will be cross-posted at Winds of Change later this week).
Not wanting to offend your wife a bit, he looks a lot like you Simon (minus the glasses).
But I haven't met others in your family so well, I could be wrong.
Once again congratulations and have fun!
If you are the one who will be driving him back home, drive at 20 KM/h. I know boys (sons) start crying when Daddy is a rough driver. Somehow girls (daughters) don't mind. Strange!
Cheers and good wishes to your entire family from our family.
PS: Yes, my wife and kids have been told about your baby boy. No, they don't know we are bloggers, just expat friends ;-)
Congrats to Simon and his wife for having a cute li'l baby. He is expressing gratitude with his Monalisa smile to his wonderful parents (Simon's Abridged Guide to Living with Pregnancy (for men) fame).
At precisely 3pm Hong Kong time today, Saturday, 21st August, 2004, a healthy baby boy joined our ever-growing clan. Weighing in at 3.875 kg (8 pounds 8 ounces in the old scale) and 51 cm long, he was called "generously proportioned" by some and "a whopping great big boy" by others. Mother and son are doing well. The sisters have met their newest attention-sapper and have approved. Daddy is still trying to work out how something so small can cost so much.
A fuller account will emerge in the coming days, including the most fascinating part of the entire affair: the hair-do on the nurse who admitted us. I have never, ever, in my life seen a mullet quite like it.
In the extended entry you can feast your eyes on the newest member of the team: BL.
That's one small step for man, and a hell of a lot of ink on my feet.
YAY!!! Congrats on the new arrival. Expect more late night posting now as you will no doubt be kept up for the next 12 months! Well done Simon and Mrs. Simon...
And only today at my friends' baby shower, my girlfriend smiled and said how, having recently seen IVF couples in the hospital where she's working, she thinks anyone who can have a baby is blessed. So you are, as well!
Super news Simon! Congratulations and all the best in the coming months (I know two kids is exponentially more difficult than one, so I have no idea how much extra work three is!)
Cheers,
Kolya
Posted by Kolya Miller at August 22, 2004 11:06 AM
Congratulations, we expect to see him as a guest blogger soon!
While I sit here waiting impatiently for my third child to arrive, you can amuse yourselves by visiting each and every of the following sites. These are the top 10 referrers to this site for August, so I hope you can return the favour and give them a visit:
I'll be updating the referrers every month and listing them in the sidebar. There's an easy way to get on this list...just send people this way.
Next week is going to be big one for this humble little site...
UPDATE: By the way, if you know of any new blogs that would like some publicity, please send them over to the Showcase. Or feel free to spread the word.
You know, I just had a look at that script and it is not very well written. It is not thinking about whether the www. is missing or whether it is a .com/ or a .com/index.html etc and is rendering them as separate sites. I think I should write one that actually keeps one URL together rather than splitting them all up.
Hey, thanks for your comment on my blog. Made my day. It ain't easy having outspoken views that I have in Malaysia..
Congrats on your third child, if he/she is borned already. If not, my sympathies with your wife/cohabitated girlfriend/unlucky surrogate, cause that is one hell of a long labour (looking at the date).
The Economist has a full court press (pun intended) of articles on China this week. The general theme is that China's rapid growth in the past 25 years has seen immense wealth creation and a rise out of poverty for hundreds of millions. It has also seen the creation of a middle class and a population that is learning to deal with both wealth and the greater reliance on themselves rather than the state. There is, however, a cost and the magazine looks at two of them in detail: the collapse of health care and the threat of pollution.
The collapse of health care seems overblown: for many in China, especially in more rural areas, there is no health care to collapse. What is more likely is the state is stepping out of providing it and the private sector is rushing in. It is typically chaotic, like much of China's economic transformation, but it is not at a crisis point. In fact the article itself points out that last year's SARS scare, combined with the growing threat of AIDS, is making China's health authorities more aware of the importance of adequate health care. As mentioned above, Chinese people are learning that part of growing wealthy is providing for oneself rather than relying on the state to provide. Health is one part of that.
The pollution story (no subscription required for this one) is altogether scarier and a bigger issue. China has paid little regard to pollution throughout its rapid industrialisation and prior to that. Indeed some of Mao's policies could be argued to be the greatest man-made environmental disasters ever (not to mention human disasters too). Like China's problems with its banks and bad loans, the race for growth had consequences that until were never addressed because they weren't seen to be immediate problems. This allowed them to grow and now they are reaching the point that something needs to be done. The cost will be large. But like many of the Western economies of today, the gathering of wealth comes first and dealing with the consequences comes once they can be afforded.
There are two further articles. The first looks at China's powerful bureaucrats and a recent lawsuit they losst over a trademarks dispute. People are getting excited because it may be the first time the CCP has lost a case to a private firm. It is being hailed as potentially the start of a move towards rule of law in China as judges become "more emboldened" to enforce laws against self-serving departments. Don't bet on it. The CCP is not prepared to loosen its control over anything and will not generally accept judges getting in its way. It may well allow certain judgements like this to stand, as this particular case seemed clear-cut and in breach of China's new WTO obligations. But China is run by the CCP without the normal checks and balances of a judiciary upholding the force of law.
The final article looks at China's dodgy economic figures. This is something they and I have looked at previously and remains a huge problem for what is becoming a huge economy. China is difficult enough to run as it is without worrying if the numbers are telling the real story. To some extent it is always going to be difficult to collate accurate numbers for a country as vast and big as China. However it is vital for China itself to at least attempt to improve the verasity of the economic statistics they publish. It's impossible to steer the boat if you don't have an accurate compass.
Full marks to The Economist as one of the few magazines of note that are looking at China in such a comprehensive manner. If I get some more time I will try to post more thoughts on the articles over the weekend or next week.
I really like the Economist. It's just that a weekly subscription is such an intimidating task. I usually need the whole week of train rides to get through it and then I've had no time to read anything else.
there are optimists and there are pessimists both inside and outside the PRC about China's future.
then there are pessimists from China with means and those left behind to struggle with the overblown health care crisis.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1286958,00.html
Corrupt officials have cost China £330m in 20 years
Jonathan Watts in Beijing
Friday August 20, 2004
The Guardian
More than 4,000 corrupt Chinese officials have absconded overseas with at least $600m (£330m) worth of public funds in the past 20 years, according to a government report.
The study by the ministry of commerce is thought to underplay the scale of the problem, but it highlights growing concerns that corruption could undermine the authority of the Communist party.
Describing China as the fourth-worst country in the world for capital flight, the report's authors said that bureaucrats illegally transferred 5 billion yuan (£330m) worth of dirty money to tens of thousands of firms registered in offshore finance centres such as the British Virgin Islands and the Bahamas.
PS - These numbers are certainly only the absolute low end of the spectrum.
It is a truth universally acknowledged that only bureaucrats can come up with rules as stupid as this. As part of Britain's get tough policy on citizenship it is now insisting on an English language test for new citizens from Australia, the USA, Canada and South Africa. The problem is native speakers of English cannot take the English for Speakers of Other Languages certificate, the regular way migrants prove their abilities. Instead they need written confirmation from an approved person. Except the Home Office hasn't decided who is an approved person.
In response, Australia should immediately ban export of any more of our soap operas such as Neighbours and Home & Away and recall Kylie Minogue. Actually, that sounds more like a reward instead of a punishment. Double doses of both instead.
UPDATE: Another interesting point from talking with Giles is a great deal of Brits themselves hardly speak the language. Welsh and Irish, even Scottish hardly counts as English. Cockney rhyming slang, Yorkshireman butchering the Queen's language, Oxbridge toffs, upper class twits who struggle to get words out between their silver spoons and plums...indeed even Fumier agrees of the poor grasp the natives have of their own language.
why on earth anyone would leave any of those places to go to the uk is beyond me, but leaving that aside, what's your point? most aussies speak strine or greek, most americans speak spanish, a large proportion of candians speak french and there are 11 official languages in south africa(the majority of people there do not speak english as either a first, second or even third language, and of those that do the afrikaaners would rather die than admit they know a word).
personally i think we should just ban the lot of you in perpetuity for being so lucky as get free transport from mud island to infinitely nicer places to live in the first place.
To be honest, the standard of spoken English in the UK is absolutely appalling. While I was back there just recently I was mesmorised by how bad it was.
And you ended your sentence with a verb, which is grammatically incorrect. It would seem English as a written language is also in decline.
But I have words for this, as well: British English and American English are vastly different in their uses of grammar and spellings. I am currently editing a British book. I find myself consulting obscure reference material to figure out how to utili(z/s)e certain letters.
the other side of this of course is that languages are constantly evolving. words acquire different meanings (the word "gay" being the most glaring example i can think of) and every new generation adds their own variations as part of their attempts to define themselves as different from their parents. this is probably being exacerbated by the huge growth of sms messaging (or txting if you prefer) and email and internet usage which encourage sloppy english, such as i am using here by not bothering with capital letters because i never did work out how to type properly. if this evolution didn't happen then we'd all still be grunting at each other and hitting each other on the head with mammoth bones.
the sad truth is really just that we're all old farts unable to keep up with todays "yoof". when we were kids our paprents desparied of our english, and their parents did the same of them (i can remember by grandmother telling my mother off for saying it was twenty-five past seven instead of five-and-twenty past seven).
none of the above, however, is any excuse for speaking welsh, gaelic, celtic or cornish!
The HK Observatory has done its bit in adding to the global warming scare, and the papers have obliged by reporting the highlights. The HKO says by 2090 the average annual temperature in HK will rise by 3.5 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. Of course straight away you can see there's been some cheating going on. Judging by the graphs presented in the press release, temperatures rose on average about 1.5 degrees in the 1990s. So we've got 90 more years and the average temp from today (being 2004) will rise perhaps 2 degrees, on the HKO's median scenario.
Climatologists agree the 1990s were a particularly warm decade. What they do not agree upon is why. The 1990s were the warmest decade in 1,000 years - but as the article linked asks, why was it so warm 1,000 years ago, before industrialisation and greenhouse gasses become issues? Bjorn Lomborg, author of the Skeptical Environmentalist, has dealt with these issues thoroughly and repeatedly. I strongly recommend you read this book. That way next time you come across scare, gloom and doom from greens you will be able to counter them with the one thing they lack: the truth. His major premise is the environment has actually been steadily improving rather than getting worse. If that seems a shock, it will shock you more that Lomborg uses many of the same studies that various green groups use to preach the end of the world as we know it.
But I digress. Partly due to the impact of growing environmental awareness, many of the factors currently influencing the global climate are being addressed. The impact of these changes will not be immediate, but it is extremely likely that by 2090 changes such as clean air laws, emissions controls, reliance on cleaner energy sources such as nuclear and solar, reduction of CFCs and plenty of others besides will mean the current trends are not likely to continue into the future. It is impossible to ascertain from the HKO report what assumptions they've used to make their projections. They cite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 report, which has been extensivelycriticised (The Economist has had several articles on the topic: this on how much the globe has actually warmed in the past; and this (reproduced in full in the extended entry) on the problems with the IPCC report.) Australia's former chief statistician is amongst those who see flaws in the IPCC report.
So the HKO based their observations that 5 minutes of Googling could have told them has serious flaws. Nevertheless their conclusions are that HK will experience higher average temperatures, more hot days and fewer cold ones. Which could be taken as good news: one of the little discussed aspects of climate change is that many areas that are arid or uninhabitable now may turn into useable land. And if predictions of rising oceans come true, the Victoria Harbour crowd can celebrate the efforts of nature to fight back against reclamation.
There are two major problems with this report. The first is the flawed data is it based on. The second and more important is that climatology is a science that is in its infancy. It requires the use of supercomputers to generate predictions that chaos theory have proven can be wildly different with only minute changes in initial conditions. Just like you read in the investment brochures, past conditions are not a reflection of future results. Hell, the HKO can hardly predict what the weather will be tomorrow. How the hell can they know what it will be like in 2090? That's not to say the efforts of environmentalist groups have not been worthwhile. The benefits have been great and the raised awareness of the potential problems with the environment will ensure continued vigilance. The problem is we live in a world of costs and benefits. If you are prepared to sacrifice large parts of your standard of living for nebulous environmental benefits, be my guest. But until you can convince enough of your fellow citizens otherwise, it isn't going to happen.
Especially if you try scaring us with dodgy projections.
Economist article on IPCC report
AT THE beginning of 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released, as the main result of its massive Third Assessment Review, a set of figures that have become the most-cited numbers in the field of environmental policy, and quite possibly the most-cited numbers in any field of public policy. The panel, whose task was to assess the extent to which emissions of greenhouse gases may warm the planet over the coming century, reported that “globally averaged mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100.” This alarming conclusion has become the starting-point for popular and official discussion of global warming and the policies that might mitigate it. Bear in mind how expensive some approaches to the problem, such as the Kyoto Protocol, might be if governments actually succeeded in implementing them. Vast sums are at stake.
As a rule, the IPCC is careful to attach warnings to its projections. Journalists are impatient with that: they prefer “prediction” to “projection” (less vague) and like to talk of temperature rising by “as much as 5.8°” rather than quoting the full range. This is all very misleading—but the panel cannot be blamed for the way its work is reported. What it can be blamed for is the seriously flawed methods it has followed in making its estimates.
In recent months, two distinguished commentators—Ian Castles of the National Centre for Development Studies at Australian National University, formerly the head of Australia's national office of statistics; and David Henderson of the Westminster Business School, formerly the chief economist of the OECD—have put together a critique of the panel's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The report claims to “provide the basis for future assessment of climate change”, but Mr Castles and Mr Henderson point to serious flaws in its analysis and results. Last year they began writing to the chairman of the panel. Following an invitation to a technical meeting convened by the IPCC last month, they have offered further comments. The critique which thus evolved is to be published next month*.
One key problem with the IPCC's report, sufficient by itself for Mr Castles and Mr Henderson to declare the document “technically unsound”, is the way the scenario-builders have based their projections of future output on national GDP estimates which have been converted to a common measure using market exchange rates. This procedure leads them to overstate the initial gaps in average incomes between rich and poor countries—because prices tend to be much lower in poor countries. Those gaps are in turn crucial for the IPCC's projections, because the method used in the scenarios assumes not only that the rich countries will continue to get richer but also, in most of the 40 scenarios considered, that the greater part of the (overstated) initial gaps between rich and poor will be closed by the end of the century.
The combination of overstated gaps and of built-in assumptions about the extent of convergence in the average incomes of rich and poor countries yields projections of GDP for developing regions which are improbably high. Even the scenarios which give the lowest figures for projected cumulative emissions in the course of the century assume that average incomes in the developing countries as a whole will increase at a much faster rate than has ever been achieved in the past.
Miracles and anomalies
The unreality of the assumptions about economic growth in developing countries is highlighted by disaggregated projections which were recently released on the SRES website. These projections imply that, even for the lowest emission scenarios, the average income of South Africans will have overtaken that of Americans by a very wide margin by the end of the century. In fact America's per capita income will then have been surpassed not only by South Africa's, but also by that of other emerging economic powerhouses, including Algeria, Argentina, Libya, Turkey and North Korea.
The SRES summary for policymakers tells anxious governments that the 40 scenarios “together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future emissions”. Plainly, this is incorrect. The panel's low-emissions scenarios make exceptionally optimistic assumptions about economic growth in the developing world. But it is impossible to say, without running the whole exercise afresh, what the properly calculated range of projections for temperature changes would be.
Mr Castles and Mr Henderson offer a variety of other criticisms of the SRES, and of the panel's treatment of economic issues more generally. They complain, for instance, that history is too much neglected in the consideration of future trends. They also point out that developments in the first ten years of the scenario period, 1990-2000, were pretty clear by the time the SRES was published in 2000, and that in some respects they diverged substantially from the scenarios' projections; yet the report pays them little or no heed. Mr Castles and Mr Henderson argue that the circle of those involved in the climate-change exercise has been too restricted. For the future, the panel should draw on a wider range of economic and statistical interests and expertise. In particular, where its member governments are concerned, there needs to be a greater involvement of economic ministries and statistical agencies, alongside environment ministries.
The full panel meets next week in Paris to review the preparation of its Fourth Assessment Review. It should take the opportunity to consider the Castles-Henderson critique and resolve to do something about it.
Having just spent a pleasant month looking at IPCC and global warming I think you need to get out of your airconditioned office, walk down to the reservoir and smell the air, look at the trees and listen to the wind. Or better still, record the wind, photograph the trees and bottle the air for analysis.
Anyone who relies on The Economist (which I read) and Bjorn Lomborg (whom I have read)for a balanced view of the environment has serious problems.
Stick to what you do best and produce more children who get to the starting gate on time
Da, you're right to some extent. My point is the IPCC report is not the gospel many take it to be and that the HKO have apparently projected gloom and doom based on a report that's been questioned. If you question the assumptions, you need to question the conclusions.
Good idea about getting the baby out. I'll see what I can do.
Simon, love the Blog, you do have a wonderful flair. But, please learn what reliable authorities are. Bjorn Lomborg is not in the least reliable or worth the reading. Yuch.
Anne: I've heard that a few times from people but no-one really seems to be able to back it up. If you've got some links or documents that can show me Lomborg is wrong then let me know...but he seems to have answered most of his critics pretty convincingly so far.
I take it that the enviro folks didn't mention the increased heat from the sun we've been getting. For those with a short memory, the extra heat from the sun started (this time) in the late '70s - when the hippies were complaining about the Next Ice Age™.
Everyone agrees that buring gasoline adds to global warming. But not as much as the sun pumping more heat into the globe.
In the ongoing investigation into the dental health of China, the Standard reports that Hong Kong's population cannot afford to laugh at their Mainland cousins:
About one-third of Hong Kong's population could be toothless by the time they reach their golden age if they do not improve their dental hygiene...In the recent survey, conducted in March, more than 90 per cent of the 1,300 people aged between 18 and 44 interviewed had dental problems like cavities, periodontal [gum] diseases, sensitive teeth and tooth extractions. That translates to about 2.7 million people with dental problems.
"Hong Kong people may be too busy these days and don't spend more than a minute to brush their teeth.''
Hong Kong, with one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world, still has dental health problems closer to a Third World country than a modern nation.
The only people I know in Hong Kong with perfect teeth are on Cathay Pacific ads.
Hong Kong was titillated with when a LegCo candidate was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in China. ESWN notes significant differences between the English and Chinese language versions of events. He also notes the rapid retreat by HK's Democrats in claiming political persecution.
Beijing may be on track for the 2008 Olympics in terms of infrastructure, but its tourism friendliness could do with work.
When in Hong Kong, eat like the experts. The gents from Batgung have recommendations on dimsum and curry.
Adam says people debating violence in the media need to have a look at China's official press first. ALN says even advertising can be harmful. That said Jeremy says there are still some redeeming features.
Dan Washburn's in Xi'an: home of the terracotta warriors, recooked food, early beer drinking, bragging about beer and other drinking, anti-social non-smoking, dirt, shirtless eating and crossing China's national fat line. Read it all.
John at LiC talks about China's latest fashion craze.
Andy has found a boomerang in Korean politics, although Oranckay suspects there may be more to this than meets the eye. He also sees the potential for a new era of Korean style McCarthyism. Jeff also sees a double standard in action.
While on Indonesia, libel is a criminal offence, says Asia Media.
The Sassy Lawyer has good news for Filipinos: SMS messages won't be taxed. The bad news is helicopters will.
The Swanker says some prisoners are celebrating Indonesia's Independence Day; there may even be a family reunion in the offing. Myrick finds the celebrations include mass murderers. Jakartass talks about some who didn't get to celebrate the big day and excerpts an editorial that hopes the day will be a reason to look forward as well as back.
Mr. Brown says political freedom may be coming to Singapore, via the mobile phone.
LOL.
Simon, don't you take part in the bi-weekly meetings to take over the world? Of course it is the fault of
Mossad. We Jews are at fault for everything. Tornado? That was us. ;-) Unfortunately some people would actually believe the above.
I really like how the title of the link is "conspiracy_theory". As refreshingly honest as that might be, I would think that might also be a little overused for "news" stories from that site.
Let me know where the next meeting is. I'll bring beer!
There's something about sex in the air at the moment. Xinhau reports that China is now taking its campaign against p0rn to the next stage: "phone sex" services:
"With the rapid development of the paid call service market in China, some lawbreakers make use of this form to spread obscene information and even conduct prostitution," said Wang at a national teleconference on clamping down the notorious "phone sex"service.
"This depraves social morals, and especially brings great harm to the country's young minds," said Wang, saying the move would clean up the country's paid call service and ensure a wholesome development of the market.
Some would say the depraving social morals is the whole point; people are always curious about sex. Banning it doesn't help. More importantly how does China actually plan on monitoring all the phone conversations involved to decide which are illegal? The SCMP reports that in Hebei 18 staff monitor the 100,000 people working in the phone service industry. So it will be that typically Chinese crackdown: some showy arrests, fanfare for a few months and then everyone can get back to normal.
Meanwhile Hong Kong has its own set of sex scandals. A candidate for the LegCo election is arrested in China for soliciting a prostitute. Akwardky he has confessed to the crime, perhaps under coersion says his co-Democrats in Hong Kong. But his confession says he had sex twice with the prostitute. Now the issue has the HK Justice Department unsure how to handle things, especially his candidacy for the LegCo elections. His political party, the Democrats, have back-pedalled from claims of a set-up and are now lying low and hoping the whole thing will go away; the public mostly think he did it.
To top it all off, yesterday a Hong Kong policeman was caught in Shenzhen for the exact same crime during a vice raid. Sometimes Hong Kong's press makes blogging too easy.
* With a title like that, just watch those Google hits come in, baby!
China's continuing demand for steel had lead to the phenomena of metal man-holes being stolen and sold for scrap all over Hong Kong and China. Now, the theives have gone the next step: public toilets.:
Police have stepped up patrols of West Kowloon public toilets following a rise in the theft of water taps, metal gates and drain and manhole covers.
The SCMP reports that amongst the items stolen are a hand dryer, a steel soap dispenser and a tissue holder. Luckily the Government has the perfect solution to the crime: they are putting up notices in public toilets saying "Theft Could Put U in Jail".
A survey says Poms have the loosest sexual morals in the world. "It is one of life's ironies that ugly people get the most sex, so that survey makes sense," said co-worker Tom.
you aussies are just jealous. while you're all practising the doggy paddle so you can win some pointless swimming race we're all busy practising the doggy something-else. i know which i'd rather be doing!
erm, did someone mention "doggy"? i have to say that it seems that minging folk are really good at sex regardless of nationality. and it's the rare bloke who's both a looker and a sex god.
Posted by the letter b at August 19, 2004 12:25 PM
Not just an Aussie paper-it was in the English papers yesterday too. I read it on the tube and had a fit of giggles. Loose morals, indeed. Not all English folks are ugly. This country gave us Jude Law (a bit of a pansy, but still). Pierce Brosnan, who can eat buiscuits in my bed anyday. Current bare-chested teen heartthrob Orlando Bloom. Menopausal heartthrob Tom Jones (man is he icky). And....um....
Via Rachel Ann I came across Dawn. She has no permalinks working, but try "Angel and Gin and the Beast Within" for starters. Her about me page is actually interesting and she has a fantastic writing style. Really you can pick any of her posts at random - they all seem to be winners.
There is some sensational writing going on in the blogosphere and for some reason much of it seems to be coming from women. Helen manages to turn out a great piece of writing on a daily basis: just look at today's entry for an example (and it's not just me). I am in awe of them but I'm glad they share their talent.
The world's hairiest man (with Chinese characteristics)
Reuters has an article about Yu Zhenhuan, the hairiest man in China. He surprisingly doesn't take the cake as hairiest in the world: a couple of Mexican brothers have hair covering 98% of their body, to Yu's 96%. But they haven't tried to parlay their hirsuteness in an attempt to become a rock star like the canny Yu. His first gig is obvious.
Giles pointed me to Mark Steyn's latest article. It covers everything from the Olympics to Tibet to the USA's new troop alignments and it contains the classic line The Belgians weren't half as insufferable when they were the German army's preferred shortcut to France.
Chris had a lament on HK's woeful TV last week. You might also be aware that the Olympics are currently on, an event that occurs once every 4 years. It's darn popular and most people like to watch it. In many countries the coverage is 24/7 for the duration, giving such sports as syncronised diving their one shot at mockery before they sink back into oblivion for 4 more years.
Not in Hong Kong. In the free-to-air duopoloy, both channels TVB and ATV share the rights (that is so Hong Kong). Their idea of coverage? Take TVB: one hour of highlights between 8:38pm and 9:21pm (by the VCR clock) with three hosts who are able to say not much at all while the studio waits for the next central feed to come in. Otherwise there's the 8-9am highlights, the vital 1:30pm-4pm bit and the handy 6:20pm-7:20pm session. All perfectly good times for anyone who isn't working for a living. The evening broadcasts sign off the same way: join us at midnight for live coverage right through to 5am. Now I know that Hong Kong is a city that stays up late and primetime only really starts after 9pm. But is it so much to ask TVB to refrain from showing old movies and documentaries for a couple of weeks and instead actually show Olympics coverage for a few hours when normal people are awake? I don't even mind the China-centric coverage, given the Olympics is all about faux-patriotism and ersatz-nationalism.
In desperation I went searching through i-Cable. I found 5 channels showing soccer. Not one showing Olympics. Is it so much to ask, just for a couple of weeks, to see these games instead of repeats of obscure European soccer games? A friend in Singapore told me he spent a fruitless Saturday night going from bar to bar trying to find one that would switch from Premier League to the Olympics for 10 minutes so he could watch Thorpe's swimming race. There wasn't even a soccer game on at the time; they were between matches. Every single bar said no. Not one exception.
remember most hon kongers don't care about sport except for horse racing and soccer. and much as most gweilos like to think that this city revolves around them, we make up about 2% of the population and there is no reason why hong kong tv should show any olympics at all. being thankful for what you get.
and if you think olympics coverage is bad now wait for the winter olympics. last time round i seem to remember it was not shown at all here - i think the official line was "winter sports are not popular in hong kong".
I agree with your esteemed colleague. One thought, though - does the coverage on TVB Jade have English commentary in Nicam? Not that the English commentary is up to much, as you say!!
The 100th anniversary of Deng Xiapong's birth is leading to fawning articles about the Great Helmsman, with his socialist construction theory being considered a major advance in Communist Theory. Which it was, given it basically junked most of what Mao taught and instead set China on the path to a market economy with Chinese characteristics instead. To this day Jiang Zemin, who's Three Represents theory remains a mystery to anyone who tries to make sense of it, no doubt resents his inability to stamp a similar groundbreaking theory on Chinese Communism.
But in every era theories are re-invented to conform to the facts on the ground. The SCMP reports Deng was, according to Li Peng, the former Chinese Premier, a pragmatist at heart. Deng was behind the Tiananmen crackdown, the Three Gorges Dam and everything else that happened in China of import during his reign. He also told Li, when he started as Premier, he needed to grow a backbone and become more assertive. The little man didn't mess around.
What is surprising is that experience has shown Deng's theory of "one country, two systems" has been "misinterpreted" according to the head of China's Taiwanese affairs. The official, according to the SCMP, he said
...the interpretation of the principle as a rule that Beijing should not intervene in the affairs of Hong Kong had resulted in political rows in the special administrative region...proposed that we should not intervene in the actual operation of Hong Kong affairs ... but we have implemented it by refraining from intervening in any of Hong Kong's affairs.
Mr Yu said the principle of non-interference had allowed foreign powers to sow discord between Hong Kong politicians and the central government...
"What Comrade Xiaoping meant by not intervening in the actual operation of Hong Kong affairs is not the same as not intervening in all Hong Kong affairs. "The central government has taken note of this."
In short: Beijing feels like the f*cked up in Hong Kong by letting the genie out the bottle. How did they do this? By putting democracy in black and white in Hong Kong's Basic Law. China created it's own problem with Hong Kong, no matter what spin they choose to put on it now. The new problem is how to deal with a potential re-unification with Taiwan, which now has an established democracy. The lessons China has learnt from its experience with Hong Kong will not bode well for Taiwan.
The effects of Deng's theories have caused huge changes in China in the last 20 years. They will keep causing more for years to come. Mr. Yu is said "I think we have not yet fully understood Deng Xiaoping's theory." The theory is well-understood; it's practice is not.
I've just had a 45 minute session with a "no-cost, obligation free" financial consultant who told me I will be destitute by age 60 unless I invest with him. Now I'm off to a 3 hour training session where a lawyer will tell 30 people about a bunch of US regulations that make my eyes glaze over at the thought.
When it rains it pours.
UPDATE: The session started badly: we had an American lawyer who thought he was funny and his material was interesting. What was worse were the inside jokes he shared with his fellow lawyers and at one stage we enjoyed the spectacle of two lawyers arguing over obscure aspects of US Securities Law. What a sight to behold. I managed to plough through most of my Spike magazine in peace (it wasn't a risk- it was well hidden by the handouts and the content didn't raise a chuckle).
The climax (if I can use such a word in this context) was a video on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a piece of US legislation that says not to pay bribes to other Government officials. It was an instructional video, although the casting was a little confused. The stereotypical Ivy-league investment bankers got through their parts well: the confused young tyke under the wing of the egomanical devil-may-care rules-are-for-sissies style BSD* who only cares about winning the deal. Where I got confused was when the Finance Minister of Whereverville had a plummy English accent, sitting his chesterfield and oak-panelled office sipping from a pewter goblet. Yet later when our BSD was arrested, it was by some sinister Arab looking gents imitating Feds in their sunglasses and black suits.
The funniest was that the "good guys" were the lawyers and the baddy was the guy that won the deal.
The moral was clear: the difference between a bribe and a deal is the amount of money involved.
* Big Swinging Dick - see Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis for details of "the good old days".
American lawyers? I'm sure Aussie lawyers are real princes. Plus they talk funny as any right-thinking American will tell you.
Actually, do they even have lawyers in Austrailia? Do you have "law" down there? Watching National Geographic and Crocodile Dundee, I get the impression you people aren't completely "civilized" and 7/8ths of the country is overrun by savages.
Would this also have something to do with Japanese television shows that provide extreme sex acts for women, as well as the chance to actually have sex, on stage, in front of a crowd of other women?
You mean there's more than just that soccer victory?
Arthur Chrenkoff's impressive Good News from Iraq series is up and worth a read. It is a long list of all the various successes in the new Iraq that, funnily enough, most of the media doesn't seem much interested in. While the Iraqi victory in the Olympic football tournament pool game got plenty of coverage, there seems to be an amazing lack of coverage of improving events on the ground in Iraq itself.
So next time someone mentions the word "quagmire" about Iraq, point them to Arthur's series.
"Good news from Iraq" - drivel from the Bushies written by Ann Coulter and O'Reilly (really?), no doubt. Pull the other one - its got bells on it, mate! Hell in a handbasket more likely!
Obviously you didn't go and read the article then. It's up to you - the fact remains there is plenty of documented good news, not just from "Bushies". That said I have a feeling if Kerry wins suddenly the media will discover much of this good news...
Today is PB's 2nd birthday. Her present from us was a toy cash register. Amazingly one of her favourite words is "money"; another is "three dollars"; and yet another is "chocolate" (accent on all three syllables). Ably assisted by her bigger sister PB proceeded to open the cash register drawer 204 times in the hour before summer school starts. Next they went "shopping" to get the things they needed to cook in their toy kitchen. I fully expect to come home tonight to an entire meal made of green playdough, thoughtfully laid out on plastic plates by my servers, JC and PB. I may even wash the whole thing down with some "Mummy and Daddy" juice.
There's an upside to being the only man in the family (at the moment) after all.
It's the typical story: poor peasant's life in turmoil thanks to meglomaniac's whim; peasant eats nothing but sweet potato for years; peasant starts a small business in the city selling his product based on sweet potato; makes a small profit; develops a better product and sells thousands of tonnes of the stuff and lives happily ever after. Some of the logic is worrying though: "We can increase the value of sweet potatoes 23 times if we make vermicelli from them. That means we could make 700 billion yuan if we turn all sweet potatoes in China into vermicelli'' said the inventor. That's a hell of a lot of vermicelli. China grows 800 million tonnes of the stuff.
Tom follows-up on the fate of Chinese dissident law professor Yuan Hongbing. He also has a further follow-up on Li Dan, a well-known Chinese AIDS activist, and reports on Roger Moore's visit to China and his scolding of hotels that refused to put up AIDS orphans in Beijing recently. As he points out, there is no funding to help AIDS orphans in China and when people like Li Dan try to help they are punished for their efforts.
ESWN talks about sales training in China, the begging way. He also highlights two very different approaches to reporting the same event. There's additional commentary on this from ALN and CSR Asia.
Another interesting case of Chinese corruption and someone doing the complaining via the press. ESWN translates a letter about corruption in Fujian Which is just as well, because the next day the Central Propaganda Department banned it from websites and had the Fujian authorities rebuttal instead. However there are 3 things you can never get back: the spent arrow, a missed opportunity and the spoken (or in this case written) word. ESWN rightly summarises this as now a case of one word against another. What it highlights, though, is how difficult it can be to fight corruption in China.
ACB looks at Taiwan's likely futile attempt to get a seat in the UN. ACB also says Hong Kong is to get a TV series that won't impress.
Via LiC I came across this survey of differences in attitudes between Chinese and American students on a range of issues. Also via LiC is this article by Shelley Timmins on the differences between Chinese people and Chinese tourists. And while on Chinese tourism there's a report on Jiuzhaigou National Park, China's most expensive and beautiful tourist attraction (his words, not mine). Meanwhile Dan Washburn's travels continue, this time in Hubei. He even meets the ticket Nazi on the way to the Three Gorges Dam.
Interestingly Joseph Bosco is going to start teaching a course on journalism at Beijing Foreign Studies University. The topic: American (read free) journalism. Fingers crossed it is the start of something grand, although I fear that like much that is taught in university, in the real (working) world the theory will not match the practice.
Marmot has more on the ongoing Koguryo flap between Korea and China (although from what I can see it getting next to no attention in China).
Coinciding with Liberation Day in Korea (FY has the historical details) Kimchee GI translates an article that says South Korea's economy is being dragged down by left wing values.
Oranckay tells us a little too much about Korean women.
BTM says Japan is edging towards the Apocalypse the sexless way.
SE Asia
The Sassy Lawyer says prostitutes are not always victims and looks at the Philippine law that assumes they are. That said ALN details a case in Singapore where clearly there is a victim.
Nicholas looks at the Singaporean blogging of its National Day and isn't impressed; instead he gives a dose of realism instead. Without being patronising, he's a wise head on young shoulders and he writes damn well. While on Singapore, Mr. Brown asks is Singapore a country or a child-care centre? (also at Andrea)
The EU, which recently condemmed Israel's seperation fence, has found the perfect way to express their displeasure: they are going to build one themselves, according to Globes. Even better Israeli companies that specialize in the construction of warning fences and security systems will participate in tenders to build hundreds of kilometers of fences along the EU's new eastern border.Rajan, where I found this, puts it best: Ukrainian suicide bombers have really been a pain ever since exploding in random Berlin busses.
The SCMP reports on Goldman Sachs' entrance into the Chinese investment banking business. Goldmans have entered a joint-venture with Chinese deal-maker Fang Fenglei. But nothing in China is that simple:
Bankers are calling Goldman Sachs' US$62 million "donation" to help refund investors of bankrupt brokerage Hainan Securities its entry ticket into the domestic securities market. It is the most bizarre element in the agreement between Goldman and its mainland partners to form a joint-venture investment bank in the country as Hainan Securities will have no direct link to the venture. But, in agreeing to help rescue a domestic broker, Goldman has won goodwill and other concessions for its joint venture, Gao Hua Securities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) seems happy to let foreigners buy their way into the market, seeing it as a way to rescue dozens of near-bankrupt securities firms without public money...None of this would have happened without the "donation" to Hainan Securities. The money, equal to 380 million yuan, will be used to pay back clients of the company, which stopped operating more than four years ago after banks froze its limited assets at the request of creditors. Industry analysts estimate Hainan Securities' liabilities at 510 million yuan owed to 120,000 individual clients.
"This donation looks like a back-door deal," said one European banker. "If it were taking over Hainan Securities, it would be a normal payment. But it is not. It is setting up a new brokerage and has no dealings with Hainan Securities. It is a cost which the CSRC exacted from Goldman Sachs to get in the door before its competitors. Is this ... open competition? We wonder about the identity of the clients who will receive the money. The strong suspicion is that they are not shopkeepers and schoolteachers in Hainan but state companies and well-connected individuals in the rest of China." (my emphasis)
In other words China's securities regulator is prepared to let foreign bankers into China so long as they "donate" (ie bail-out) other failed firms. Luckily the foreigners are not being forced to take the dud firms on: they just provide the cash to solve the mess for the Government. But as the article points out, the cash will most likely go to those with the best connections rather than the most deserving. It almost looks like a large-scale official bribe: you bail-out these guys and then we'll let you get a licence to bank in China.
It's a simple idea. Every three weeks the people from Strengthen The Good will find a small but worthy charity and post about it at the central site. Then bloggers who are part of the network link to that post and publicise the venture, trying to raise money for that cause. The details are spelled out here and here. It's run by Alan from the Command Post and bloggers can sign up to the mailing list. The charities highlighted will be small ones where even a $1 donation can make a difference.
Compassion fatigue is a growing problem, especially in the blogosphere where there seem to be plenty of worth causes to promote. Hopefully this will become a central depository of worthy charitable ideas instead and bring more focus to the fundraising potential of blogs. If you have a blog I'd encourage you to go and sign up; if not I intend to link to each new cause as it is posted.
On Friday Lee Kwok-sum was enjoying tea with a friend in a restaurant. Two masked men walked in and chopped his right hand with a knife. The reason? A triad boss's revenge after Lee had tried courting the boss's girlfriend. Just one problem: it was the wrong guy. The SCMP reported the man as denying he was involved in any disputes and he had no triad links, prompting the police to "suspect that the attact could be a mistake."
The Apple Daily quotes a cashier at the restaurant as saying Lee responded calmly to the attack. "He didn't yell or cry. He used his left hand to hold up the right hand which was bleeding profusely and said to me, 'could I please have some ice to freeze my hand?" she said. The man's hand is chopped off, he doesn't know why, and all he does is politely ask for some ice?
Another new HK blog with the inevitable title: Hello, Kitty!. Written by an American exchange student studying at CUHK, Rachel seems to be enjoying herself:
Where else but in HK could a single evening consist of a ride on the longest covered outdoor escalator system in the world, authentic Russian food, two absolutely awesome renditions of "I Can Boogie [Boogie Woogie]" by a pseudo-traditionally attired Ukrainian duo (that I'm currently pretty much in love with), a shot of spicy vodka in a "Snow Room" where the ambient temperature is -15 Celsius, a mad dash after a terrible Chinese Elvis impersonator, a full-on ass grab by a confrontational, flamingly gay guy, HK$35 mojitos, and fun at La Bodega with four Japanese women, two gweilos, one Norwegian, and a Korean? Ngoh mji [I don't know].
Thanks a lot for noting my blog in yours, Simon. I've been in Yangshuo for the past few days, so I haven't updated.
I just wanted to clarify: I'm actually a TEACHER at CUHK in the English department. I just finished university in the USA and I'm here on a teaching/public service fellowship from the Yale-China Association.
I did spend my summer studying Cantonese at CUHK, though, and I'm going to continue with that.
I really enjoy your blog. It's remarkably thorough.
You cannot even say this sounds like a good idea at the time. A Chinese entrepreneur wants to open a new shopping centre, in the heart of downtown Pyongyang. Zeng Changbiao is goign to sink 50 million yuan into a 5 story building with the inevitable 9 story office tower attached. As to who will fill the damn thing, its shelves (will be) stocked with goods that have been nearly impossible to obtain in impversished Noth Korea for decades. "We will mainly bring in light industry products like toothpaste, toothbrushes, towels, small tools and electric household appliances, clothes, shoes and caps," Zeng said. It's comforting to know North Koreans have got by without these things until now.
Of course there's a slight problem. Even our hero Zeng comments Their (his new employees) wages are very low, only 70 or 80 yuan (US$10) per month. So his staff won't be able to afford any of the products they sell. It's a surefire way to lose money quickly. Even better "The prices of the goods will be five times higher than in China, so our profits should be quite high." Zeng said.
I'll be reporting on North Korea's first official bankruptcy in a few months.
Hong Kong, the world's home of the beauty contest, is finally covering the vital at least 4 months pregnant beauty segment. With Mrs M's due date today, we don't have much time. Luckily no song and dance routine is required and instead the judging was based on how well they could take care of their newborn, from bathing, burping, feet massaging to feeding.
This from the same city where a "cricket match" consists of insects fighting each other. In a sign of tough love, over one hundred men were arrested at the Far East Friends of Crickets Association in Mongkok. The cricket fighting is not illegal. What is illegal is the gambling on the result. With friends like these, who needs enemies?
First, I really thought this was a joke until I clicked on the link. Now, I'm just sorry that there were no pictures of the winner as I am totally curious.
A change in format for the weekly link round-up. A combination of a busy working week a lack of decent material to link has conspired to keep my folder of links rather thin. So instead I'm going to feature a few blogs I read on a constant basis (daily to weekly).
Firstly there is Pete's A Perfectly Cromulent Blog, the best blog name bar none. He features a great idea for keeping a daughter's future sexuality under control. It's just crazy enough to work and I'm damn well going to use it too. He also looks at Harry Shearer's bleating on the Simpsons. He talks to (now) dead people. He reviews Collateral and takes on Starbucks. Read his blog: it will embiggen your mind.
Jim nicely sums up not just his but my views of politics as well. He's already been the subject of a linkfest this week, but you need to read his blog. Really.
One of the more thoughtful blogs out there is Peaktalk. A former Hong Konger himself, Pieter has talked about the shrinking undecided vote in the US election and on "hedonistic" Europe with a follow-up on how the drift between Europe and the US may lead to great closeness between America and Asia. His is one of the few blogs that has well-reasoned and thoughtful posts on a consistent basis.
Protein Wisdom requires you to engage both your brain and sense of humour at the same time. Thus many don't get it. But it is full of off-the-wall gems. He recaps the blogging of the DNC and details his plans for the Republican convention and transports THK back to the 70s. If his neighbour (note the correct spelling, people) ever read his blog, there could be some serious trouble.
Finally via Ilyka comes this little gem. If we had a choice we'd all go that way.
UPDATE: From the Living Room collective comes the inevitable Olympics Blog. It contains Olympic related news, including a report that nudity will appear during the Opening Ceremony. If it's during the mind-numbing marching of the athletes I doubt if anyone would notice. The good news is the spooks don't think there will be any terror attacks on the Games. And there's an article to remind you what the Games are really about...
The backlash against metrosexualism continues. Via Da comes the new code, for Retrosexuals:
A Retrosexual man, no matter what the woman insists, PAYS FOR THE DATE.
A Retrosexual DEALS with IT, be it a flat tyre, break-in into your home, or
a natural disaster. But if these happens to you, you DEAL WITH IT. A Retrosexual not only eats red meat, he often kills it himself.
A Retrosexual doesn't worry about living to be ninety. It's not how long
you live, but how well. If you're ninety years old and still smoking cigars and drinking, I salute you. If you are still having sex, you are a God.
A Retrosexual does not use more hair or skin products than a woman. Women have several supermarket aisles of stuff. Retrosexuals need toothpaste, deodorant and shaving gear - that's it!!
A Retrosexual does not dress like a homeboy with baggy pants that look like he's shat himself, or with a gay chain from pocket to pocket. If wearing a hat, wear it correctly - not on the side like a nancy-twat.
A Retrosexual should know how to properly kill stuff (or people) if need be. This falls under the "Dealing with IT" portion of The Code.
A Retrosexual watches no TV show with "Queer" in the title.
A Retrosexual does not let neighbours screw up rooms in his house on national TV.
A Retrosexual should not give up excessive amounts of manliness for women. Some is inevitable, but major reinvention of yourself will only lead to you becoming a handbag carrying little puss, and in the long run, she ain't worth it.
A Retrosexual is allowed to seek professional help for major mental stress such as drug/alcohol addiction, death of your entire family in a freak BBQ accident, favourite sports team being moved to a different city, favourite dog expiring, etc. You are NOT allowed to see a shrink because Daddy didn't pay you enough attention. Daddy was busy DEALING WITH IT. When you screwed up, he DEALT with you.
A Retrosexual will have at least one outfit in his wardrobe designed to conceal himself from prey.
A Retrosexual knows how to tie a Windsor knot when wearing a tie - but ONLY a Windsor knot.
A Retrosexual should have at least one good wound he can brag about getting. This does not include nancy-twats who have had cosmetic surgery.
A Retrosexual knows how to use a basic set of tools. If you can't hammer a nail, or drill a straight hole, practice in secret until you can-or be rightfully ridiculed for the nancy-twat you are.
A Retrosexual knows that owning a gun is not a sign that your are riddled with fear, guns are TOOLS and are often essential to DEAL WITH IT. Plus it's just plain fun to fire one off in the direction of those nancy-twats or things that just need a little "wakin' up".
Crying. There are very few reasons that a Retrosexual may cry, and none of them have to do with TV commercials, movies, or soap operas. Sports teams are sometimes a reason to cry, but the preferred method of release is swearing or throwing the remote control. Some reasons a Retrosexual can cry include (but are not limited to) death of a loved one, death of a pet (fish do NOT count as pets in this case), loss of a major body part, or loss of major body part on your ute or pick-up trick.
When a Retrosexual is on a crowded bus and or a commuter train, and a pregnant woman, heck, any woman gets on, that retrosexual stands up and offers his seat to that woman, then looks around at the other so-called nancy-twat men still in their seats with a disgusted "you rude pricks" look on his face.
A Retrosexual will give up his seat on a bus to not only any women but any elderly person.
A Retrosexual will have hobbies and habits his wife and mother do not understand, but that are essential to his manliness, in that they offset the acceptable manliness decline he suffers when married/engaged or in a serious healthy relationship - i.e., hunting, shot putting, shooting, cigars, car maintenance and drinking piss with the boys.
A Retrosexual knows how to sharpen his own knives and kitchen utensils.
A Retrosexual man can chop down a tree and make it land where he wants. Wherever it lands is where he bloody well wanted it to land. Except on his ute - that would happen because of a "force of nature", and then the retrosexual man's options are to Cry, or to DEAL WITH IT, or do both.
Retrosexual man doesn't need a contract - a handshake is good enough.
A Retrosexual man doesn't immediately look to sue someone when he does something stupid and hurts himself. We understand that sometimes in the process of doing things we get hurt and we just … deal with it.
Some of the people at work have ordered in dim sum for lunch today. Delivery will be by a surly woman pushing a trolley, shouting out in Cantonese the delights withing while studiously ignoring all the gweilos, assuming they wouldn't be interested in the contents. When finally cornered and asked what the food actually is, she will grunt a response and slam a plate down on the table. She will then reach over and neatly stamp the card with a Hellow Kitty imprint before turning away and muttering under her breath. Requests for more tea will go ignored as the small amount of water remaining in the pot turns to a cold, dark mud. Others will thoughtfully turn up to maximum volume the background noise and clatter of crockery, making normal conversation all but impossible.
HONG KONG - (13 August) The Roddy Murray saga continues.
The chairman of the Bar Association defended the right of lawyers to drink before courtroom appearances - as long as it did not affect their performance*.
"It's not like we're performing surgery or flying a plane," said Sir Teddy Martini. "Drinking is an age-old tradition in the law. Everyone knows the Magna Carta was composed after a rather long lunch and a jolly good bottle of red."
The Bar Association has no rules against drinking. In fact the Bar Association has only one rule: to protect their own. "We're busy worrying about the real law, let alone setting rules for ourselves," Sir Teddy said. "All lawyers, and barristers in particular, are always good fellows. Oh, with the occasional token woman. Oopps, did I say that? I move to strike that from the record!"
Asked what the Bar Association is doing about the matter, Sir Teddy said "We had a vigourous discussion last night. I wanted the Burgundy, but that damn chap from the other chambers insisted on a New World Merlot. Well, I never. We were having prime steaks, for goodness sake."
So far the Bar has received one anonymous complaint about Mr Murray's behaviour. An excerpt was played to reporters: "You should all be ashamed of yourselves. Drinking at lunchtime and not inviting me. It's just rude, dammit. He will never work in my court again unless he sends me a case of Grange Hermitage. And not one of the bad years, or my name's not Chua Fi-lan!"
Sir Teddy commented further: "People need to think through the repercussions if we were to stop barristers drinking at lunchtime. Many of Hong Kong's restaurants and bars would go out of business. Where would it end? It's not an easy job being a barrister, you know. We have to wear silly black coats and horse-hair wigs that itch like buggery in this heat. Then we've got to argue monotonous cases of little import in front of pompous and self-righteous former barristers, who now sit in even bigger wigs and big red coats. Yes we can charge a reasonable tariff for our services, but alcohol is merely the lubricant of justice in our fair system. For the really important cases I generally limit myself to an aparatif and half bottle at lunch."
When asked what constituted a "really important case", Sir Teddy replied "You know, the murders and the ones that pay lots of money. The public needs to remember it is rude for a barrister to refuse his tycoons' offers of sumptuous lunches, especially if you are representing them as well."
The press conference continued a little longer but Sir Teddy's speech became slurred. One journalist noticed his "water" seemed to smell distinctly of vodka. Sir Teddy finished the conference with this statement: "You're all a pack of lying theives. I will go you with a knife, I will. I love you. I'm so sorry. You're my best friend. I feel sick. Objection!"
ALN reports that doing good deeds in China sometimes has a price.
Richard looks at the release of a book written in 1989 that predicted many of the problems now emerging in the world's greatest toilet bowl: the Three Gorges Dam.
Phil finds a fast-(re)moving story on democracy in China in the China Daily.
Chris looks at the problems with Hong Kong's list system of voting.
In a detailed post, ESWN looks at passion in soccer and rates the Asia Cup final.
Giles and Chris both have plenty to say about Hong Kong TV. I fully agree with what Chris said.
Stephen summarises the recent history and current suppression of China's Uygur population.
Jeremy says China's papers are celebrating Deng Xiaoping's 100th birthday (being dead doesn't matter) and Beijing now has a 3 colour alert of its own. But it's not about terrorism. Jeremy also has a new slogan for Newsweek: Be the last to know.
Joel continues his exploration of the similarities and differences between Hong Kong and Korea.
At LiC Edward Hugh says the China economic slowdown has begun; the question is how will it end?
Madame Shutterfly has some of the photos of China taken by Henri Cartier-Bresson, who passed away last week.
Korea and Japan
Cathartidae, apparently living in South Africa, says South Korea's cabinet will being studying school textbooks from now on.
Antti says the conference in North Korean that was going to happen actually did happen. It turns out only certain invitees were cancelled.
Jodi, who runs one hell of an interesting blog, talks about some forgotten survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. She also explains why it's not good to be a dog when it gets hot.
FY says the quiet Korean deployment to Iraq and hopes their return is different.
SE Asia
Following North Korea's example, Richard looks at the newest dynasty handover in Asia: Singapore.
Giles has found an alternative to the traditional wedding cake in the Philippines. Conrad finds a Pinoy girl who refuses his advances because she's got better things to do.
Jodi follows the aftermath of Malaysia's PM remarks on religious tolerance and how it took less than a week for tolerance to give way to warring again.
Macam-Macam says Megawati is enjoying what may be the last few weeks of her Presidency in style.
Miscellany
Tony conducts an interesting experiment in racism.
Taiwa's military estimates it could hold off an invansion by the PLA for as long as 2 weeks. This is meant to be good news, because a recent computer game simulation said Taipei could fall in 6 days. The difference comes down to the assumptions made.
But the mass-circulation China Times quoted "authoritative military sources" as saying the computer had made certain assumptions -- such as no help from the United States -- and it did not mean Taiwan would be defeated so quickly.
"The sources indicate, in the event of a 'first strike', the air force and navy can preserve of their fighting capabilities while the army can maintain 80 percent of its fighting capabilities," the newspaper said. "Under these circumstances, Taiwan can hold on for two weeks in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait."
However, the United States -- Taiwan's main arms supplier -- had told the island's military it should be prepared to "fight independently" for a month, the sources told the newspaper.
So by the time the Americans turn up it would have been Chinese territory for a couple of weeks already. And given how stretched the US military is it could take far longer than a month for an effective boost from the US. Another good reason for Taiwan to tread carefully.
Under the new US Fleet Response Plan, as seen during Operation Summer Pulse 04, the US could mobilise 7 of its twelve carrier groups within 30 days which I think is where the one month comes in, but since America has been telling president Chen that he isn't spending enough money on his armies, and has been encouraging him to buy more weapons from them, I think that anything that comes out of America on this issue has a few strings in tow.
Right now I wouldn't rate Taiwanse chances of holding out for two weeks, not because its military is not up to the task, but because the generals would rather live under Chinese ocupation than be shot.
My money is on a negotiates surrender, following the overthrow of president Chen from indisde, that will eventually lead to Taiwan doing pretty much what it has been doing for the last fifty years, only with less US weapons and without President Chen.
Sure there will be a brief period of occupation and a lot of pro independance supporters will be marched off to the maniland for staged trials that will end in the death sentance or lengthy times in jail, but just as Hong Kong has survived so will Taiwan.
I can't see this thing lasting until the Americans get ther, unless their already steaming out of Japan as the troops ships depart from China, and I certainly can't see the US recapturing Taiwan, which internaitonally is still considered to be part of China.
Now a plug for my page on Summer pulse 04: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com/read/754285.htm
Stephen's ongoing alternative Big Mac Index has results from across Asia and it makes for interesting reading. The question is how long does it take for a worker in McDonalds to earn enough to buy a Big Mac.
China: in 2001 - 3hrs 57 mins; in 2004 - 1hr 43 mins
Hong Kong: in 2001 - 41 minutes; in 2004 - 47 minutes
Malaysia: in 2001 - 1hr 21 mins; in 2004 - 1hr 12 mins
Philippines: in 2001 - 2hrs 19 mins; in 2004 - 2hrs 24 mins
Taiwan: in 2001 - no survey; in 2004 - 1hr 2.5 mins
The differences between 2001 and today say a lot about the progress of these economies and the differences between each of them seem to reflect a changing order in the standard of living between various Asia countries. I should have more to say about this but the curry just turned up.
Hopefully, no one actually tests this theory in an attempt to get said Big Mac. It's not like Asia really needs the gift of high cholesterol and heart attacks.
The Standard reports that Beijing is running out of space - for cars. Beijing has over 2 million cars and only 600,000 off-street parking spots. Worse still the number of cars is growing by 10% per year. The reason for this problem? When many of the housing developments were constructed, cars were a novelty and no one expected people would have them.
Beijing is now mulling (I love that word) a measure like Tokyo and Singapore: to buy a car, you need proof of off-street parking. My question is this: where are people putting these cars at the moment if there's such a crisis in space? I don't live in Beijing so I can't be sure, but I'm not aware of too many people being forced to leave their cars in the middle of the road for want a car space.
The solution is obvious: there's a nice big square in the middle of town that only gets used for a couple of parades and the odd massacre. At 10 yuan a car Tiananmen could finally become a money spinner.
Hong Kong's legions of savers are rejoicing at the massive windfall now that banks have raised their deposit rates by a factor of 10. That's right, whereas once the oppressed parsimonious citizens of the Big Lychee were earning 0.001% on their earnings, they now make 0.01% instead. When asked how he intended to spend his windfall, Mr. Frank Lam replied "I'm going to buy a balaclava and shotgun. It's the only way you can get money out of banks these days."
While we're talking about self-sacrifice, it looks like I'll be giving up my regular afternoon McDonalds chocolate sundaes for a while.
McDonald's has been fined for selling ice cream with a bacterial count nearly five times the permitted level - reportedly the company's third such recent breach of food safety rules.
During a routine check in May, health officials found that an ice cream sundae from a McDonald's outlet at Victoria Peak, a popular mountaintop tourist spot, had a bacterial count of 240,000 per gram (8,400 per ounce). The permitted limit is 50,000 per gram (1,750 per ounce), she said.
Did we really need to know the acceptable limit is 50,000 bacteria per gram, let alone McDonalds weighing in at 5 times that? It makes a mockery of the constant hygiene fetish amongst many in Hong Kong, like the neighbour today who would only press the lift buttons with his tissue. You can wash your hands, but how do I know where your tissue's been, buddy?
PB had her second birthday party yesterday afternoon. I was the only male over the age of 3 in a room of 30, and I lived to tell the tale.
The guests arrived uncannily punctually at the appointed hour of 4pm. Many of the attendees, groggy from their lunchtime naps, seemed to take a few minutes to get into the party atmosphere. However hostess PB, ably assisted by sister JC, had already plunged into the lollies (which unfortunately they have taken to calling candy - damn American teachers) and PB's favourite: chocolate. While sending their blood sugar levels towards the upper limits of human capacity, they decided to test their endurance by gulping down fruit juice like they were an ex-Australian PM setting a drinking record.
The crowd was rocking by 4:30pm. The toys were getting a thorough work-over and the carpet's scotch-guarding was being tested to the limit. Misti the wonder dog was locked away to not scare the natives but proved to be a popular exhibit with some of the braver souls. The paparazzi (myself) was in full swing, snapping various guests in varied modes of play, eating or merriment. At one stage a rumour got around the cops were on their way to turn it down. The requisite quota of tears was reached early on, allowing the party to continue through to the all important sausage/chips part of the day. These disappeared at an alarming rate, leaving the party girl's father desperately lacking in nutrition to get through the remainder of the party.
Finally the moment arrived: the cake. Looking brilliant in a combination of pink icing and chocolate cake, it was well received by the crowd. After one aborted candle-blowing (there's always one kid who has to ruin it for the birthday girl) PB stepped up and did the honours. As is tradition at Hong Kong parties, the guests guzzled their cake and left almost immediately (with party bags in hand of course). Within ten minutes all that was left was a desolate wasteland where had once been our apartment.
We had a two-pronged strategy for dealing with the mess. Firstly Misti the wonder dog did her duties as a vacuum cleaner, sucking up bits of cake and lolly that would escape the human eye. Secondly we had fortunately engaged the services of a helper for the afternoon and she proceeded to make light work of the cleaning up process. Having taken JC and PB out for 15 minutes to try and burn some of their glucose still pumping in their veins I returned to find Mrs M firmly ensconced on the couch and the place looking spotless.
All parties should be as successful.
And now I'm proud to present what I said above in a pictoral exhibition of the event itself. WARNING: the extended entry is NSWD (not safe for dial-up)
Party girl sister and co-hostess JC, ready for the hordes.
The girl of the hour: PB.
Did someone say cake? Guess how old she is turning?
My daddy told me this is the only thing I should ever associate with "blow".
Concerntration is the key.
Damn that's good cake.
It's my party and I'm the queen of the day.
After a hard afternoon's partying, our zonked hostesses need some serious couch time.
One thing that normally reassures visitors to totalitarian countries is at least their citizenship means their embassy will be their to help. Unless, of course, your embassy isn't told you're in trouble:
China has released a Chinese-born American university professor who was held for two weeks on espionage charges, the U.S. Embassy said Wednesday, adding to a string of such cases against academics with ties to the United States...Chinese authorities failed to notify U.S. officials of the detention until Aug. 4, a violation of a consular treaty requiring notification within four days, she said. The U.S. government plans to lodge a formal protest with China over that delay and the "harsh and inappropriate treatment" given to Wang, the spokeswoman said.
A citizen of the US and he was still subjected to solitary confinement, deprived of sleep and water and there are rumours he was made to listen to William Hung for three hours straight.
Just a reminder that China has a nasty side that doesn't much care for diplomatic niceties.
Xinhua reports China's mobile phone users are expected to send 550 billion SMS messages in 2004, generating revenue of US$6.7 billion for the operators. By 2006 it is predicted this will rise to 1.4 trillion messages. What the hell can so many people say when they write in that mysterious language called textish? And how will China be able to keep tabs on it all?
Rusty is getting into stamps. I mean he's really getting into stamps. Your truly is honoured to have been honoured by the US Postal service in such a way. The stamp is in the extended entry and I note it has a slight but passing resemblance to at least one Hong Kong/China blogger.
Go have a look at Rusty's collection. Obviously having a baby is not impediment to prolonged bouts of blogging, not just at his own but at the Diktat too.
It's a bittersweet day today. My friend Jim at Snooze Buttons Dreams, the best blog written by a father of 3 boys in Georgia in the world*, looks like he will keep his job thanks to a takeover by some capitalist pigs at an all-powerful multinational. Next time you see one of those anti-globalisation protesters in their Nikes and Levis saying the WTO is the source of all evil, you can remind them that at least one multinational once save a great guy's job.
So why bittersweet? Because anyone that write stories as good as this are wasting their God given talent slaving away for the man.
* it's also the source of Snooze Points, obscure trivia questions, great stories, interesting insights common-sense political observations, creator of the BestofMe Symphony and all that is good in the world. Really. Plus he has excellent taste.
Tung Che-hwa's ingenious strategy of staying out of sight and hoping his popularity will rise has not worked. A survey of 1,011 people said support dropped 1.6 points to 46.7, still above the arbitrary 45 point "credibility crisis" level but off his recent high of 48.3. Now when your high is still below the 50 point mark, you know things aren't good. The survey also found the number of people with no-confidence in Tung fell to 59%, with a massive 1% jump to 21% of those with confidence in the man. A massive 18% thought he was doing a good job.
What the survey omits is the large rise in the number of people responding "Who's Tung Che-hwa?" It's progress of sorts.
Hong Kong's newest favourite drunk, Roddy Murray (aka The Singing Barrister) has found sometimes when you have a mid-life crisis, the whole world gets in on the act. The Justice Department has suspended him, the Bar Association is investigating, he's been called bizarre by the presiding judge, and to really make matters worse the SCMP reports he lives in Discovery Bay. Talk about falling apart.
The SCMP has a follow-up story, reporting the "hard-living" barister doesn't care if he's disbarred. From the article:
"Disbar me, I couldn't care less. My father bankrolled me.
Wealth is wasted on the rich. He also maintains he has a "rock-and-roll lifestyle", which is why the SCMP reporter found him with 3 beers and a bottle of champers at 8am by a ferry wharf. I've seen Liam Gallagher in exactly the same position. If by rock-and-roll lifestyle he means indulgent excesses, a penchant for entertaining the public at his own expense and living a stereotype, then mission accomplished.
I'd say send him into exile but he's in Discovery Bay already.
Heading off now to enjoy PB's birthday party. As official photographer/videoer/cleaner-upper and headache tablet person, I have the important duty of snapping as many pictures of 18 2-year-olds smearing their chocolate-stained hands over my house and belongings.
Hopefully no 2-year-olds will be harmed in the filming of this picture.
It's time to set the calendar. Sepp Blatter, who clearly hasn't had a chat with the Asian Football Confederation since Saturday's Asia Cup soccer final, has said China will make a great Soccer World Cup host: in 2018. In what could be called wishful thinking, Blatter brushed off concern over the ugly scenes that marred the final, saying it was "understandable". 14 years should be just enough time for China to work on its sportsmanship.
There's plenty of entries over at the New Blog Showcase. One of my favourites from the past week comes from Laser Cub, talking about defending marriage. It takes a look at the (now failed) US Constitutional ammendment against gay marriage and talks about preserving marriage by looking at the real causes of divorce amongst hetrosexuals. It's something Mr. Green has been on about for a while.
The other one I liked is Open-toed shoes by Funny Business. It's lucky I read this one, because I was thinking of wearing open-toed shoes to work tomorrow. It's an amusing blog with various bits and pieces about office life.
Go give 'em a visit and drop by the Showcase from time to time.
One of my relatives wears open toed shoes regularly in a legal office environment. But then again her entire life is a series of self-replicating and evolving fashion mistakes.
Sometimes members of the Bar can have difficulty distinguishing between their capital and their lower case 'b's. Yesterday afternoon barrister Roderick Murray laughed and clapped his way through a 45 minute judgement reading by Justice Chua Fi-lan. He was 45 minutes late to the morning session, before returning after a long lunch (the count was a couple of beers and two dry martinis) to liven up proceedings. In mitigation Murray said he had a problem with his fiancee and had two martinis at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel before going to the court...He said outside court that he did not think his behaviour violated the norms of professional conduct nor did he think he would be disqualified because of it. The SCMP has more: Outside court, when a Post reporter tried to ask him about his behaviour, Mr Murray motioned towards the barrister's changing room. He then accused the reporter of trespassing on private premises and started swearing at the reporter, telling her to get out. "I am as drunk as a monkey. You f****** bitch, get out of here," Mr Murray yelled. He then chased the reporter out of the room...When asked why he had consumed the drinks and whether he was worried about possible disciplinary action, he replied: "You have to hear a lot of bull**** in court. I think I should be reported to the Bar Association. But nobody is going to strike me off." Mr Murray then struck poses for photographers, mimicking sculptor Rodin's The Thinker, before getting into a taxi. I'm as drunk as a monkey you f***ing bitch. Now that's a line to remember.
Mr. Murray was prosecuting on behalf of the Department of Justice. As a taxpayer I insist Mr. Murray forgo his fees in this case. The Department of Justice must ban him from ever working for them again. Then I'd like to see the Hong Kong Bar rise to Mr. Murray's challenge and strike the fool off. But then they'd lose a drinking partner and a jolly good fellow, so it's not likely to happen.
And people wonder why gweilos have such a bad reputation in this city. Who's a fucking monkey now, you little bitch?
I remember the first time I heard a solicitor refer to his opposition as his "friend" (only barristers are "learned friends"), I thought that the judge was going to strike him dead for the sarcastic reference. I was shocked to learn that it was an acceptable form of address.
Generally, bad form to go to court drunk. It is usually ok afterwards, of course.
i don't think gweilos do actually have such a bad reputation in hk. i very rarely detect resentment here when dealing with all sorts of hong kongers. surely if our rep was so bad we'd detect negativity all the time. also, the fact that this story makes it into the press goes to show it is a break from the norm and it obviously surprised at least one news editor. not to mention the jounalist bitch. poor form for abusing her i guess, but don't journalist's need to be told to back the f*ck off from time to time?
Tom reports that my homeland is caving in to pressure from China on a refugee application. You can imagine the reception waiting for her when she gets back to China.
China is facing a shortage of migrant labour for the first time in 20 years. ALN hasplentymore, as does China Herald. ALN also says China is not just attracting investment, it is starting to become a big investor itself.
Tom takes issue with a translation by ESWN. ESWN also translates the introduction to a book by Jiao Guobiao, the professor who wrote the polemic against the CCP's Propaganda Department.
ACB says there may be an answer to China's growing power problems: the sun.
ESWN follows the ongoing flap over Taiwanese singer Chang A-Mei and her concert in Beijing.
Phil finds Tex-Mex in the middle of China. He also talks about the ups and downs of trains in China.
ACB was looking at the build-up to this weekend's soccer final. Fumier congratulates Japan on their weekend soccer win but says China has won too. ESWN wraps-up the stories and photos of the weekend's Asia Cup soccer final between Japan and China. FY looks at the whole mess from Korea, saying it proves China's not ready for an Olympics. Jodi also has more. The Ruck has photos and also has some strongly worded thoughts on the hooliganism of China's fans. What is it about soccer that brings out the worst in people? Interestingly ACB has found a case where China ignored a chance at anti-Japanese rhetoric. The catch? It was attacking US nuclear ambitions instead.
While we're on sport, Peking Dork notes that Taiwanese fans at the Olympics have been asked to not fly their own flag, but rather an "approved" version. PD also notes the double standards between Chinese fans burning Japanese flags (deemed acceptable) and the ban on Taiwan's flag. How will China deal with the Taiwanese at the Beijing Olympics?
Fumier's (via Hemlock) got a secret he doesn't want you to pass on. He's also got the shocking news that some lawyers in China can't be trusted.
Fons reports on another trade fair in China: the adult toy expo. It includes this interesting bit: "In Australia we sell three million vibrators per year, mostly made in China," said Michael Rutner, of 'Next to nothing'. That means on average one vibrator for every sexual active woman." Now you know why Aussie women smile so much.
Dan Washburn, now in Hunan, talks about the ongoing Chinese fascination with Mao and visits the late Chairman's home town.
Korea and Japan
I didn't realise but South Korea is trying to ban reporting on its deployment of troops to Iraq. South Korea's obviously not as democratic as it pretends, although Gord reports the blog blockage seems over.
Oranckay says the UN has appointed someone to look at human rights in North Korea. The question remains: will he get out of the airport?
Marmot and Cathartidae are covering the ongoing tussle between Korea and China over that most delicate of topics: history. Marmot goes through the background of this tiff here: it seems it all started when China deleted any references to Korean history before 1948 to solve the problem of dropping references to the kingdom of Koguryo in the 1st Century AD. So they're only missing about 5,000 years. Oranckay has more and thinks the spat will serve to cure those in Korea fixated with China. What all this (and the soccer debacle above too) is the wounds of wars are not healed in Asia, because there has not been acceptance and apologies. While Europe screwed the process up after WW1, it seemed to get it right after WW2 (perhaps because the start of the Cold War) and now Germany is accepted (mostly) at face value. While the rest of Europe may have reservations, Germany re-unified and has continued to be Europe's biggest economy without raising ire or causing political problems. In Asia this hasn't happened, mostly because of Japan's refusal to confront its past. Until it does these kind of problems are going to continue and sensitivities will remain fragile. And it will be to Japan's detriment.
IA says goodbye to Korea, emphatically.
SE Asia
The Sassy Lawyer talks about the plague of child prostitution in Philippines and across Asia.
Yet again China is turning into a, ummm, world beater. There's plenty of talk of "growing markets" and "rapid expansion". Scariest of all, for anyone who's ever tasted China's drinking water, is this statement: Wu Wei, president of one of China's largest makers of adult sex toys, says it is only a matter of time before couples accept "marital aids" as being "just like drinking water". I so hope not.
The SCMP has, on its thankfully little-read op-ed page, a piece of excrement masquering as an opinion piece by Philip Bowring. The whole article is in the extended entry but there is a warning attached - it contains views that make little sense.
The main thrust of the article is the Western World's "selective" approach to intervention in humanitarian causes, calling efforts in "global do-goodery" as "at best irrelevant and at worst arrogant neo-imperialism".
Before we go on, let's look at what's actually happening in Darfur. The Darfur Information Center has a tonne of links and reports. Going back to late June, there's a roundup of what was happening at Passion of the Present with plenty more right through that site. To show it's not a partisan affair, Moveon.org also has an open letter with some links on the matter. An update last week was posted at Winds of Change: the toll was 30,000 dead and over a million refugees. Robert Corr has a summary of the history and links on what's happening from late July. The Economist has had several recent articles on the whoe thing here, here, here, here and here. You get the idea.
But according to Bowring, writing from his air conditioned office in Quarry Bay, it's all very cynical that the West wants to try and "save" Darfur. He uses various buzzwords to make his point. Try this: Editorials spew out demands that the said international community "must do something" to stop the killing there. The media spurs the hue and cry by presenting a black and white version of events. Ummm, actually this time it is pretty black and white. Government backed miltias are systematically torching villages in a deliberate campaign.
He actually has a point in saying that missions to complicated foreign situations need planning and solid committment of resources to be successful, as Afghanistan and Iraq have shown. Of course if Bowring's version is correct, then it was a good job the West didn't get involved in the Rwandan genocide too. He seems to think the victims of this ongoing genocide should simply let it happen to themselves, rather than arm themselves and fight against the Government armed and backed forces. He even makes the following ridiculous statement: As for ethnic cleansing, the champions of this process in the past 100 years were the victorious 1945 allies who cleansed Poland and Czechoslovakia, for example, of their German populations. It's hard to read that and think he's being serious. His main point seems to be that the West engages in "victors' justice" and they should be more even-handed; how that follows from the rest of his article I'm not entirely sure. He is implying it is better for the West to never intervene in such events rather than being seen to take sides.
The SCMP is usually a pretty mediocre paper but they manage to avoid total rubbish. This time, however, they have reached the bottom of the barrel. The article is a disgrace and Philip Bowring's confused arguement reflects badly on himself and the paper. It is literally disgusting.
The bad news for Mr. Bowring is this is a world that requires you to take sides. Fence-sitting has never been an acceptable excuse.
The west seems to have an almost endless appetite for what it sees as global do-goodery but others see as at best irrelevant and at worst arrogant neo-imperialism. Its saviour complex is usually dressed up as the views of "the international community", but it reeks of hypocrisy and usually betrays a lack of understanding of complex issues.
The latest people the west wants to "save" are those in Darfur, the westernmost province in Africa's largest country, Sudan. Editorials spew out demands that the said international community "must do something" to stop the killing there. The media spurs the hue and cry by presenting a black and white version of events. The goods guys are "innocent black Africans"; the villains are the Sudanese government and the Arab militias that it supports. The words "ethnic cleansing" are again in the air as reason for intervention.
There is talk of Britain and Australia sending troops, as though they had not learned enough in Afghanistan and Iraq of the problems of trying to impose a foreign order on ethnically complex countries. Thankfully, US President George W. Bush sees the lack of wisdom, in an election year, of another foreign imbroglio, however much it is dressed up in humanitarian clothes.
For sure, nasty things are happening in Sudan, which have led to an exodus of refugees into neighbouring Chad. But the brutal fact is that Sudan has been afflicted by internal ethnic strife for 40 years.
Who is to blame? Sudan's borders are a chance consequence of the interaction of British, French and Turkish empires in 1898 - although Darfur was not formally added until 1916, when the British invaded it and killed its sultan. Perhaps all these African borders should be remade to fit tribal and religious divides. But that is a proposition put forward by no one, least of all by the western nations which created those borders.
Anyway, changing Sudan's western border is not going to solve anything because the issues of Darfur are so much more complex than the saviours would have us believe. For starters, the Arabs there are as black as the "Africans". Unlike in the partly Christianised south, all are Muslims. Second, there has long been tension over land between the cattle herders, who are mostly but not entirely Arab, and the settled peoples, who are mostly but not entirely non-Arab tribes. This rivalry has been exacerbated by the southwards push of the Sahara desert.
Third, the "innocents" being killed are in many cases from villages aligned with armed rebel groups. Fourth, there are two separate rebel groups, divided mainly along tribal lines, and one is backed by militant Arab Islamists in Khartoum. As if that were not enough, political factions in Chad, where the government is kept in power by French troops, are parties to the Sudan turmoil.
No one seems to be asking: who armed the rebels? As for retaliatory bombing and burning of villages, this is very similar to what has been done in Fallujah, eastern Afghanistan and Gaza. That is not nice, but given how many Iraqi and Afghan civilians have been killed by British and American bombing, to hear the sanctimonious prattle of US Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Prime Minister Tony Blair about Sudan is sickening.
As for ethnic cleansing, the champions of this process in the past 100 years were the victorious 1945 allies who cleansed Poland and Czechoslovakia, for example, of their German populations.
The west's selective application of "international justice", needless to say, does not extend to French activities in Algeria circa 1960, or US actions in Nicaragua - in which several members of the current Bush administration played a role.
It would be nice to see international organisations such as the UN and World Court being strengthened. But international bodies can only work effectively if they are believed to be even-handed, not dispensers of "victors' justice".
Two interesting bits of news over the weekend. Firstly China's top causes of death are lung cancer and traffic accidents. This is not a surprise for anyone that's ever been to the place. In fact I'd estimate that traffic accidents caused by drivers smoking is likely to be the highest single killer in China.
Meanwhile Hong Kong tops the developed world with the highest abortion rate. 30% of all pregnancies are terminated in Hong Kong. That's a staggering figure. The article blames Chinese cultural pressures for only being married before having babies, but the article says there is a high rate of abortions within marriages too. What is omitted is there are women in HK who also travel to the Mainland for abortions, meaning the true figure for HK is likely to be even higher. While I know the whole issue of abortion is a moral minefield it seems like, in HK at least, for some it is becoming another form of post-conception contraception. It demonstrates the need for far better sex education in schools.
China lost to Japan in the Asian Cup soccer final. China has blamed everyone for its loss except the most obvious suspect: themselves. The coach refused to take his medal as runner-up on the grounds the refereeing was biased against the Chinese. This is despite Several coaches of opposing national teams complained that China was helped to advance by biased refereeing, and that the team's overall performance has deteriorated since the last World Cup. If the Chinese team had followed there would have been real chaos on the streets of Beijing. The match was always going to be tense, and soccer is well known for mixing sport with acting. The Chinese team played well but were outclassed by a better side. But it is impossible for them to acknowledge that when their opponents were the Japanese. China's coach deserve full sanction by the AFC. Losers never like the refereeing but you don't refuse your medal. Even worse was this statement (via SCMP):
...he (Chinese coach Haan) did not regret his actions. "I would do it again. It's the second time I didn't take my medal. At the World Cup in 1978 the whole team did not go up. Why should we accept everything just because we are sportsmen?"
You shuold it accept it because you are sportsmen, you flippin' idiot. This is not something China can take pride in. Which is a shame, because they did well to reach the finals in the first place. The real tragedy is the Chinese coach, a Dutchman, has simply disgraced himself and will drag down the reputation of his team with him. If the Chinese football authorities had any guts, they'd sack him. And they should stop looking at others to blame and simply focus on trying to get better for the next time.
My Da always used to say "Put you money where your mouth is." He also used to say "if you're so smart why aren't you rich?" but that's for another time.
So I decided there's a far better way than mere opinion polls to find out who's likely to win the US Presidential Election. I went to Tradesports.com, a betting exchange, where there is a set of bets on whether Bush will win the electoral college votes of each particular state. If he does it pays out 100, if he doesn't it pays 0. States that are solidly Bush, for example Alabama, are currently trading at 97. California is trading at 9 - in other words, there is only a 9% chance of Bush winning it. Then I assembled the electoral college votes for each state and set a simple rule: if the Tradesports number for that state exceeds 50% Bush gets those votes, otherwise they go to Kerry. Then it's a quick matter of adding it up and getting the answer.
This isn't perfect. But the fact that these are tradable contracts and are reasonably liquid (judging by the volumes) it's far more likely to be right than an opinion poll. I know there are a couple of states where the electoral college isn't winner take all, but for this I've assumed all states (and DC) are winner-take-all only. I'm happy for people to point out any other problems with the methodology. The Excel file is in the extended entry if you want to look yourself.
So with that in mind, what does it say? At the moment it has Bush with 274 to Kerry's 264 (out of 538 in total). That's awfully close. I went one step further. I said if the price was between 40 and 60, call it a "crucial state" - states where there is a reasonable chance of swinging to the other side. There are only four: Florida, Nevada, West Viriginia and Wisconsin. A swing in any one of those states would turn it around for Kerry. But according to the betting money, these are the only 4 states that matter at the moment. And I'd believe people putting their money where their mouth is more than one hundred opinion polls.
I'll look to update this from time to time. Any feedback or thoughts are welcome.
UPDATE: There's some interesting discussion on the merits of this method.
Ok, that's fascinating. In my head, I sort of thought the swing states included Pennsylvania and Ohio. Your analysis though seems like a great approach. Let the market filter the available information and then decide. Personally, I live in NY. I assume NY will go Kerry no matter who I vote for, although it is likely to be Bush. There may be a lot of people, like me, who could be swayed by the debates.
Also, bear in mind that Colorado could change big time to permit splits of electoral college votes as a percentage of the popular vote. Right now CO is a winner take all state but there is a proposal to change that.
Ok,
Here are the potential problem I have with this particular futures market.
1) Number of actors in the bidding process? Are there enough people participating to make any variance random, or are their few enough that their is a Bush skew?
2) Age of information. In a normal market, traders can expect to receive quarterly reports from companies or daily prices for commodities. Then, futures traders can examine their own predictive capacity with actual results. My concern is that since the last 'reporting day' was four years ago, traders with poor predictive powers are not punished (ie, weede out of the market place). Hence, there seems to be a severe bias in this market towards simply assuming every state that went Bush last time will go Bush this time.
Rusty: Fair points but I think I can deal with them. Firstly these contracts seem reasonably liquid: they have all traded at least a couple of thousand times. If they're weren't enough people trading it would open up opportunities to make money by trading against the biases of the traders currently in the market.
Your second point can be dealt with the same way. Traders may have poor predictive powers, but so do opinion polls. As I said I';d rather trust people investing cash in the result rather than someone answering a market researcher over the phone. The traders are "punished" because if they are wrong, they lose hard cold cash. If I were trading this I'd be scanning opinion polls and talking to contacts in each state to find points of value and to trade them. There are people no doubt already doing it. While we can argue about the merits of the efficient market, you have to assume this is pretty close to one.
Where was the first spot that you'd go for information on betting tips? Those same polls that you discounted.
And "losing money" is not equal for all people. Some people would think HK$30 for a cup of coffee everyday would break the budget. Others are bound to hang out in Pacific Coffee in IFC with great regularity.
And sports betting where there are defined "teams" like the Donkeys and the Elephants will create a skew on the betting based upon team preference. If asked to place a small bet on a Rugby 7's match between the Wallabies and the English, isn't there a bias towards being "a homer" and betting on the side that you're cheering for?
Where people get their information is irrelevant to the merits of this method. If I buy a share on the sharemarket, it might be because I do research on the company or it might be because I like the name. The point is that people are staking real money on the outcome. Sure for some (probably most) it will be an amount they don't mind losing, but nevertheless it is real money so there is a sense of loss. In an opinion poll, there are no consequences for giving a "wrong" answer. Losing some money, even if it is small amounts, is a punishment for being wrong.
This also answers the problem of "skew". I could be a rabid Republican or Democrat, but would I risk my hard earned cash for the result? Maybe for a few, but it would simply push prices to a point where more neutral observers could make money from the incorrect pricing.
I'm going to search for other odds to see if it correlates with this set.
To validate the method, you could just see what the track record is for this method in predicting the outcome of previous elections. I'm guessing that, since the pundits tend never to consider it, it's probably not much better than a random guess.
I, personally, think that the method is flawed and that the traditional polls are much more valid for an obvious reason: traditional polls ask "Who are you going to vote for?" but the gambling method asks, "Who do you think will win?" It reminds me of an old spoof-article in "The Onion" which began:
WASHINGTON, DC—According to a Gallup public-opinion opinion poll released Monday, a solid 85 percent of the American people strongly believe that the American people no longer strongly believe that Bush is performing effectively as president.
"Due to perceived dissatisfaction over the economy, a strong majority of Americans believe that a strong majority of Americans believe that Bush's reputation has taken a hit," said Paul Mallock, a spokesman for Gallup. "In addition, we discovered a small but growing minority that believes a small but vocal minority is dissatisfied with the way the president is handling the situation in Iraq. The small but growing minority we found believes that a small but vocal group of Americans thinks that reconstruction is messier and more expensive than Bush originally said it would be."
Of the 10,577 U.S. adults polled, 8,891 "strongly agreed" that more Americans "strongly disapproved" of the president's current performance.
The gambling method doesn't address who will win, but instead it addresses public perceptions about who will win - which is an entirely different subject.
For those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites (including Tradesports) here.
Executive summary: of the 30 sites surveyed, 22 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Three sites show Bush winning. The approximate average of all sites is Kerry 296 - Bush 242.
It's not right: it's Friday afternoon and work is busy. That means this linkfest will be nowhere as creative as some, but as someone once said, a link by any other name would be as sweet:
Helen, the best writer in the blogosphere today, talks to a dead man extremely well and says despite the many bumps in her life, it has all been worthwhile.
In the celebration stakes: Ilyka turns one; it was Jim's birthday and Matt had a baby, while Winds of Change had its 2,000,000 hit!
This was the week of the Operation Give debacle, with more from Dean, the Chief and our own man in Atlanta: Jim. The latest update is here. Hell, it's even hitting Operation Shoefly...good one Atlas Line - you've ripped off two charities at once.
On a better note, yours truly had a final spurt (so to speak) and finished second on Jim's points ladder! Damn you, Rob.
Sometimes the blogosphere gets itself tied in knots over the stupidest things. Just as it seems to be making headway, with bloggers at the DNC and Republican conventions, it seems to take a giant step backwards. You see, sometimes a t-shirt is just a t-shirt. It all started when Atrios and this guy decided they didn't like Glenn wearing a t-shirt that Frank J. (he's still not that funny, maybe because he's really Atrios!) with a collection of guns on it and the line "Celebrate Diversity". Sure it's not that funny but the reaction and hyperbole against it are way over the top, asotherspointout. At least there's some common sense and good humour coming out of the mess. With everything going on in the world, you'd really think there are more important things to argue about.
While we're on bloggers pretending to be other people, Paul tries it and then denies it. There's no 5th ammendment in blogging, buddy.
Rusty puts his academic brain to use and does the maths: he's not making money blogging...unlike some. He should try asking for money and then promising to go on holidays for a month. Now that's chutzpah.
Politics
Tim Blair follows-up on Margo's stupid comments part 4976. UPDATE: But wait, there's more.
In the apparently Kerry was in 'Nam files...Lotsofchatterabouta newpolitical ad in the US by Swift Vets for Truth, basically calling Kerry a liar, liar, pants on fire. My take: no-one disputes he actually went and served; the problem is if he's being truthful about what happened. Who the hell ever knows what really happened in a war 30 years ago, even amongst those there? While it reflects on his character, there's far more important issues to deal with in the here and now. Hell, look at Clinton's past and it didn't stop him getting in twice - because he stayed focus on issues as much as he could. Spoons says this TV ad may backfire. Kerry missed a big opportunity to shift the focus from Vietnam to today's issues at the DNC and he lef the door open for this to continue. That was a massive mistake by him and his campaign.
The Commissar sums up the over-reactions to flight 327 (the Syrian musos who frightened a paranoid journo).
Miscellany
Via Dean comes this review of Day After Tomorrow, the only one you need to read. Comprehensive and insightful on a stupid movie.
Via Joe comes this piece on why iPod is a passing fad and answers to questions asked from the original post. It is worth taking the time to read it all.
Couldn't resist this little bit from the China Daily:
The example of Hong Kong and "One Country, Two Systems" is the best model to benefit reunification of Taiwan with the motherland, said Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam yesterday...Lam said implementation of the "One Country, Two Systems" principle has enabled Hong Kong to achieve sound political and economic development over the past few years. It has enabled Hong Kong people to express different opinions on political issues and constitutional development, he said.
The Basic Law, together with Hong Kong's legal system, has made it possible to solve new problems that have popped up since the handover, he noted.
Who needs a comics section when you've got cr@p like that?
Does any one have some examples on how the Chinese and English language editions of the same newspaper have different versions of the same story? I can't read Chinese, but I'd like to compile some of these.
By the way, technical problems have prevented me from updating my blog, Crackpot Chronicles for quite a while. I'm still here.
Usually HK Magazine (actually a weekly newspaper) is good for one thing: the weekly fix of Savage Love (this week's is particularly good). However their editorial on the Albert Cheng story (details here and today's latest here) is worth reproducing in full because it is accurate and sarcastic all at the same time:
At the top of the hour, this just in...more developments in the ongoing struggle between Commercial Radio (CR) chief executive Winnie Yu and I-bar-you-listen talk show host Albert Cheng. All of this might have started years back when Cheng, who hosted "Teacup in a Storm" radio talk show, was inexplicably chopped for reasons unknown. Once he was stitched up, he said something about surviving to go back on the air, which he did, until recently, that is, when three of CR's talk show hosts resigned, including I-bark-you-listen Cheng, citing mysterious threats from the Mainland. Even then, most of us wouldn't really care, except that this came on the heels of Beijing's recent declarations about patriotism which forced everyone to think that some radio hosts resigning really does mean the end of press freedom as we know it. The jury's still out on that one, but before we even had time to go to the bathroom, I-bark-you-listen Cheng suddenly says he's quitting because CR chief Yu says that he had to choose between being a radio host or running for LegCo - this coming from the woman who used to maintian a major job at an Internet provider company while being the director of a radio station at the same time. So he resigned because otherwise CR said they were going to terminate his contract, then the former I-bar-you-listen talk show host Cheng said that he was going to go complain to the ICAC, who were just the subject of their own freedom of the press headlines when they barged into seven newspapers and conducted a raid. Anyway, that's another story. So Cheng thought he was in the right because his talk show was number one for nine years [doesn't say much for HK radio - Ed.], but before he could do all this, CR chief exec Yu suddenly decides that she's going to have a rational format - whatever that means - then she fires her COO and decides she'll direct everything again. Then, just when people thought that Cheng was using all the headlines for future political gain and Yu herself was just enjoying the headlines the station was getting, overnight CR says that it will honour their contract with Cheng, who then announced he will run for Legco in Kowloon East, THEN go back on air. So as of this moment, CR, the new rational station, will have the former I-bark-you-listen emotional host Cheng reinstated as talk show host, who will also run for Legco, which CR didn't want before but now seems OK with, and we'll be sure to read more headlines about Yu and the I-bark-you-listen talk show host Albert Cheng. But hold that thought because by the time this gets to you, our rational explanation of the irrational goings on at the station could change...
Australia is close to signing a free-trade agreement with the USA. It's not a perfect deal by any stretch: there are serious restrictions and ommissions due to various domestic political pressures. Anyway, the Sepos have done their bit, seeing it as a thank-you to a coalition of the willing member. In Australia the deal is stuck in the Senate while the two major parties quibble over the impact on Australia's drug subsidy scheme but it is inevitable that a deal will be done: can't go p!ssing off the Americans when they are saying thanks.
One of the overlooked aspects is Australia will now have to increase the term of copyright protection by 20 years. It seems perverse that retrospectively some items that were in the public domain are now to be removed again. My limited understanding of law is usually courts frown upon retrospective legislation and this would seem to be a case of it. Is this part of the law of unintended consequences or just a mistake? I hope the latter because it defies belief that which was open and free can suddenly become copyrighted again.
yep that reminds me of the chewing gum issue. we just cant imagine the u-turn/about face when them Legitimate Gangsters caved in to some US Senator's demand. we were disgusted i tell ya. disgusted.
And the US already pulled the stunt of putting public domain material back under copyright. A Mickey Mouse act of Congress to protect the original Steamboat Willie cartoon of Walt Disney featuring Mickey from becoming public domain. This was when copyrights stopped being about protecting the ability of creative people to make a living and more about protecting the profit margins of corporations that scavenge off the creativity of dead (think Walt) or just brain dead (think Britney) people.
Simon's Guide: What not to say when a woman is in labour
In the next instalment of the Simon Guide series, here's few handy things not to say when your wife is in labour:
"It can't be that painful."
"What are you worried about, I just stubbed my toe!"
"Do I have time to shave, shower and read the paper before we go to the hospital?"
"I don't know what you're complaining about. Plenty of women have done this. Hell, even your mother has done this."
"Can we stop at the drive-through McDonald's first?"
"Can you just grab those bags and take them out to the car?"
"Can you just grab that bucket and keep it under you in the car? I just had it washed."
"Why don't you drive and I'll navigate?"
"I thought you filled the car with petrol."
"Are you sure it's mine?"
"Whoa, that's an awfully small hole for a baby to get out of."
"No thanks doc, I don't like the sight of blood."
"That's gotta hurt."
"That's disgusting."
"Babe, you're hurting my hand."
"My word, doc, that's an awfully big needle."
"Doc, what are you doing with those sicssors?
"Doc, wanna chuck in an extra stitch or two?"
"Doc, we want to try and keep this as cheap as we can."
"Honey, no you cannot have an epidural - they're too expensive."
"Yes honey, the sidewalk is a perfectly safe place to give birth."
"Honey, remember that boys weekend in Bangkok..."
What are the right things to say? Ha! There aren't any. The most important thing to remember is this: in times of such extreme pain, a lot of truth comes out. The other thing to remember is it is better to be the strong, silent type, because whatever you say won't help and she'll be crushing the life-force out of your hand anyway.
It's all worth it in the end. You get a brand new baby and a nice big bill. More on that next time...
You can probably add to the list what I said to my wife's OB while my wife was in labor. I said, "Doctor, I'm a little concerned. Here we are in this totally private room, it's saturday night, and my wife is totally uninterested in sex. Is there anything you can give her for that?"
Beijing's in trouble. Their preferred set of lackeys for the LegCo elections in Hong Kong are all getting ratings that even Tung Che-hwa can laugh at:
The pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) is facing a battle for survival in next month's elections after it emerged as the least popular of all parties in a recent poll...The Article 45 Concern Group was the most popular party.
Some 78 per cent of respondents said they were unhappy with the DAB, while 74 per cent expressed dislike for the Progressive Alliance. Another 54 per cent were dissatisfied with the FTU and 51 per cent with the Liberal Party.
On the other hand, 77 per cent expressed support for the Article 45 Concern Group, followed by 68 per cent for the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), 63 per cent for the Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and 52 per cent for the Democratic Party.
Holy ballot-stuffers, Batman. At least Beijing had the sense to back the least bad horse: James Tien's Cartel Liberal Party. Unless something drastic happens between now and the election (and it cannot be ruled out), the democrats are heading for a landslide. This is despite them having not much of a platform other than universal suffrage.
Methinks it will not be a happy evening in the Forbidden City on September 12.
Hong Kong has again been let down by a couple of bad apples. A SCMP report on a poll of Hong Kongers' eating habits has found 2% of residents do NOT have a fast food habit. Luckily the other 98% of us do - and how. The survey said HK has more than 11,000 restaurants, of which 3 had no rats in their kitchen. It also has 5,000 grocery stores, of which 1 had a staff member who cared (but whom was instantly dismissed after the release of the survey). The survey said fast food fetishists gorged on the stuff about 7 times a month. That seems amazing because there really isn't much else to eat but "fast" food in HK given Cantonese cooking is based on quick cooking.
While we are talking about people letting Hong Kong down, another survey has said there is an amazing 17% of Hong Kongers' without a mobile phone. This is an absolute disgrace. I hope this year's Christmas appeals help these unfortunate types.
And I shudder to think of the poor wretches who fall into both categories: healthy eaters sans mobile phones. I shudder at the thought. The HK Government must do something at once.
It is obvious the reporters at the South China Morning Post don't read their own paper. What's even more embarrassing is neither do the subbies or editor. The front page is a splash of Guangzhou's new white elephant Baiyun Airport, with fawing coverage under the headline "Easy takeoff with a few minor bumps." The article interviews an American who was waiting an hour and a half after landing to still leave the airport and some nutter who was "so excited" he decided to sleep at the airport just so he could be the first to leave the place. It finishes on the cheery note that a flight from Hong Kong had "some problems with the control tower, which was unable to give clear instructions on where to park." It's not a shopping centre, it's a friggin' airport.
Regardless there's an article a few pages in under the very different headline "Public gives mixed reviews for Guangzhou's showpiece airport". It proceeds to detail the litany of what went wrong: a badly designed terminal, no directions, confusing signs, misallocated baggage, unhelpful staff, dirty and inadequate toilets. Doesn't sound like a few minor bumps to me. No one ever said opening a new airport was easy (and Hong Kong should know) but the SCMP could at least get its stories straight.
Who's saying what in Asian blogging? Find out below...
Hong Kong, Taiwan and China
Via Richard comes an interesting article on how a cousin of Pu Yi, China's Last Emperor, got through the Cultural Revolution and was ironically working in the Summer Palace.
Tom reviews China's New Rulers: The Secret Files. He recommends it with the caveat it should not be treated as gospel truth. He also says HK's Government is now just following Beijing's script in responding to questions on interpretation of the Basic Law. What a surprise.
ESWN continues his translation of the controversial study of China's peasantry that's been banned on the Mainland. He also says Hong Kong is getting its very own flip-flopper in the shape of Albert Cheng. He's getting plenty of media coverage, which tells you how little there is for media to cover here. And it's not just me.
Time has an article on the carnage on Asia's roads. ACB says China's authorities are taking steps to protect car owners against defective models.
In an article asking Chinese about American Chinese food Wayne finds some great lines.
ESWN reports on a massive police crackdown on peasants on a village in Henan Province. The reason for the riots? After trying to get central attention to the expropriation of their land and embezzlement by their local leader, the response was 600 riot police. Funny how it hasn't been reported in China. Fons has pictures.
Taiping talks about the emergence of China as a force in modern architecture.
Conrad fears The Standard is trying to match the SCMP in a race to the bottom. While on media Jeremy links to a review of San Francisco's six Chinese language newspapers. Even Hong Kong doesn't have that many Chinese language papers!
Brendan from Bokane is leaving China and has a great farewell post.
Danwei says sex education classes are starting early in China.
Following the publication of a letter by Lu Yuegang on the realities of media in China, ESWN has a commentary on it by a fellow Chinese reporter. Jeremy reprints a WaPo article on the Southern Metropolis Daily, which has discovered the limits of independent Chinese media the hard way.
Ralph Jennings talks about the case of Zhao Yan, the Chinese citizen bashed by a US border guard, and how it is being used as a pawn in a propaganda campaign. It also points out some stark differences in how the case is being handled to how it would be handled in China.
Via Mad Minerva, Donald Sensing takes another look at the potential for China to invade Taiwan.
Korea and Japan
Kevin says the Korean blogging block may be lifting on typepad and Munu blogs (or is it?). Here's hoping. However it seems the Korean Government's obsession with news control is a bigger problem than I imagined. FY has more info on the troops headed for Iraq.
FY has pictures and an article (from Aljazeera!) on hypocritical Korean "peace" protesters.
Just in case readers in America thought North Korea was nothing to worry about, maybe you should thinkagain. And IA says there's an interesting middleman involved. The same middleman whom he now links to the Bushes as well; as he says, you may as well back both horses in a 2 horse race. Tony talks about the joke that is inter-Korean relations; the same North Korea that makes large amounts of foreign exchange through drugs.
Marmot says Korean and Chinese journalists are at war.
Andrea, posting at LiC, wonders if China is actually worried by a possible reunification of Korea?
Spirit Fingers reports on a disturbing Japanese beauty contest. While on Japan Antti finds a Japanese imperial family impostor at work in Korea.
SE Asia
The Sassy Lawyer says while some Singaporean students are using tablet PCs, others in the Philippines need to share textbooks. Bring back the quill and ink.
CC asks where are the Philippine press in reporting on the revelations of Gracia Burnham. Wretchard talks about the whole mess in the Southern Philippines and wonders how much (if at all) the US should help. Also CC wonders about the Philippine response to the new sectarian violence in Iraq against Christians; he wonders about Malaysian PM Abdullah as well.
Macam-Macam says that Wiranto just won't give up in the Indonesian election, even though he's already lost. Also via Macam-Macam comes Jakartass on cleanliness in Jakarta.
Jodi measures the toll of the massive monsoons wrecking havoc over South Asia. She also talks about religious tolerance (or lack thereof) in Asia.
Jodi, who's got one darn interesting and always readable blog, says it ain't easy being a husband in Thailand.
Miscellany
Via Doug comes this article on how it can be tough for single Western women living in Asia (printed from the Asia Wall St Journal from September 2003).
The other Big Mac index continues: numbers are in for Taiwan. Word is spreading (for example via Tim and David). Stephen is still looking for more data so help him out and eat a Big Mac.
In the history section, Joel looks at some of the last holdouts from WW2.
Tom talks about Japan's latest efforts to capture Olympic gold, and they are extreme.
methinks the tablet PC issue was taken totally out of context. if whomever cares to read the story as a whole, the reason for the hi-tech thinghies was students would be spared from lugging about 30-35 kg worth of schoolbags *daily*.which has been a problem for almost 2 decades now.
it's really easy for people to start comparing with the have's and havenot's - or in this instance, country vs country - and that is what gets my goat.
Hey. It's not surprising that the local government is following Beijing's script. It's surprising that the script contains only one paragraph, like a help desk with only one response and no path for escalation. "Have you tried to reboot your SAR?"
And I think I can name 6 HK Chinese newspapers and suspect that there are at least a few more lurking about.
The IT boffins are soon to attack my computer for "an hour" (read "as long as it takes to get it working"). They are doing it over lunchtime, so it must be important because I've rarely even seen an IT person at lunchtime, let alone seen them working.
In the meantime let me give you a quick recommendation. If you only rip off one music company this year by illegally downloading an entire set of songs off Kazaa or something similar, make it the songs from the album "O" by Damian Rice. It's friggin' good. More precisely it's mellow (read guitars and strings) ballads that are well executed. It is crafted to seem a little rough around the edges and the lyrics can take themselves too seriously at times, but these are minor quibbles. It is a smooth and solid set of songs that get better with every listen. Rice relies mostly on melody to carry the songs, with bass often provided by a quiet cello and usually without a drum at all. He has a good but not outstanding voice but he uses it effectively as another instrument in the music, rather than in opposition to it. Best of all he succeeds in filling the soundspace despite his spartan use of instruments - something many musicians struggle to do. There is nothing extraneous or unnecessary and holistically the result is far greater than the sum of its parts.
Hell, it's that good I actually bought the CD for real. If you only fill one record company's coffers this year while the artist gets 3% of the sticker price, make it this one.
What ever happened to the head banger who wanted to go down with Jeff Buckley. I alsways told you head banging would finally knock some sense into you (or was it 2.92 kids)
"I've rarely even seen an IT person at lunchtime"...
You mean you've seen one of these pale, reclusive creatures? They really exist? My pleas, emails and calls for computer CPR don't actually disappear into space, there really are people that can help?
Deroy Murdock has an article on the encroachment by China on Hong Kong's media. It borders on hysteria at times but neatly summarises the recent pressure Hong Kong's media has come under from the CCP.
Mind you at their blog, "The Corner", they're giving air to an article from the Asia Times. Conrad has effectively looked at Asia Times and this "Spengler" previously, with more here and here. Just because it's on the net doesn't make it true.
Japan and China will play in the finals of the Asian Soccer Cup this weekend. The event is being hosted in China and fans are being asked to be "civilised" towards their opponents. It is often difficult for outsiders to imagine the depth of feeling Japan arouses in other Asian nations, especially Korea and China. Any analysis of history can see the justifications for such anger and hatred and it drives many of the geopolitical and economic dynamics in Asia today.
William Pesek Jr. has an interesting article on how Japan's past may now start hurting it economically. The thrust of his argument is as Korea and now China become significant economies and drivers of growth Japan will miss out unless it confronts its military past effectively and completely. Until such time as Japan is prepared to honestly face up to its past deeds it will suffer economically and politically. While culturally and domestically Japan PM Koizumi has to visit shrines honouring the war dead, including convicted war criminals, the rest of Asia will find it impossible to engage with Japan in a meaningful way. Indeed China will not let Japan's PM visit the Mainland for this very reason.
So you have Asia's two biggest powers and economies in a love-hate relationship. China has and will continue to do far better without Japan whereas Japan will miss out to a great extent if it cannot capitalise on the rapid growth in its neighbour. Pesek's conclusion is the right one: while these two countries bicker it will be the to detriment of both. But it is up to Japan to take the steps to move the relationship forward. It's in their interests, no matter how painful it may be.
Regarding the China-Japan soccer game. While I find it great to hear that the fans promise to be good after a show of poor sportmanships prior to this, their comments are actually scaring me. I mean, there is a balance between being a good sport and also having fun (within reason of course). All these pledges to be good make me wonder what the government did to scare these people into being robots. There is such thing as having a balance of both good and bad. Last game the Chinese fans went overboard on the bad...but are they going to go overboard on the good? Is this yet another way to censor people?
My folks always told me you don't get money for nothing. Or maybe it was Dire Straits. It was someone. Anyway, it turns out that in China that's not true. As part of China's ongoing population policy they are now starting to pay people for not having kids. The policy is aimed at farmers who had no children born between 1973 and 2001 in violation of state policies and regulations; they have one child, two girls or no children; (and) they are at least 60 years old. One child or two girls - you read that right. Those who qualify get an annual payment of 600 yuan, a significant sum for many in rural areas.
Ironically in places such as Singapore and Australia they are paying to have kids. If immigration limits were eased then all these Governments could save taxpayer money and population balances could be brought more into line.
The daily horror of dealing with car bombs is usually the burden of Iraqis and Israelis. You can add a new addition to the list: Hong Kong. When a man is killed by a small car bomb after an unsuccessful similar car bombing attempt 4 years ago, you need to follow the advice of my wise Ma: if you swim with sharks you're gonna get bit*. Whether it was triads or Mainlanders, either way it was clear this man had pissed the wrong people off. I have a feeling Hong Kong's tourism strategy won't include mentioning this little item.
* while you might imagine that being said in a Southern drawl, Ma is actually a Pom turned Aussie with a slight hint of English accent about her refined voice. Hi Ma, I got me a blog!
I have earlier talked about the radical differences between the wealth in China's rural and urban centres and the discussion kicked along at Brad deLong's, with much bandying about of Purchasing Power Parity when comparing differences of wealth. Stephen Frost is working on an innovative Big Mac index to find how long it takes a McDonald's worker to buy a Big Mac as one alternative to the more academic PPP calculations.
Today's People's Daily has an editorial on the same subject. They seem to use it a stick to beat up on Japan (again), but it also asks the question how rich is China and has a welcome dose of reality compared to much of the Western media hype. Of course, there's an ulterior motive, but we'll get to that.
Based on World Bank and IMF figures, according to the article, Japan has 3 times China's nominal GDP but China's PPP-adjusted economic "power" is twice Japan's. That I doubt but the point remains that in 1990 China's per capita GDP was US$2,700; with a decade and a half of average 9% growth vs USA's average of 2.7%, so the gap should have closed, even allowing for population growth (which China's one-child policy has curtailed significantly). The article contends this does not represent the real situation: China has scored remarkable achievements for its economy but there is still a long way to go to have a powerful economy and an affluent population.
The article then finally reaches the nub of the matter before finishing in a confusing mess:
Any overestimation of China's GDP will bring nothing but damages to the country. By exaggerating China's national strength the truth is covered up. It will also unfairly bulge China's bills in international organizations in which China has a membership. And the access to international loans and special treatment with favorable terms will be more difficult for China.
Aaahhhhh. You see, if China's considered rich it will be expected to pay more to organisations like the UN and the World Bank and receive less in development aid and other concessions. To be rich might be glorious but no-one said it was easy.
Dear #2 son. I have followed the discussion on a revised Big Mac Index. Steven Frost is on the track but the problem is that a Big Mac is too cultural. For instance there is no beef in India and some countries tax beef excessively. A better index might be a medium McFries since the price of potatoes is less likely to be distorted and where potatoes are no used a substitue can be used eg rice.
If you want to see rich and poor with a huge gap, check America.
I forget the numbers but figure for the number of children going hungry because of family poverty is shocking and so are the health problems generated by those who don't have medical programs.
Poverty and wealth diferentials are a problem for the developed and the developing world.
Xinhua reports that crime is down in Macau. The only areas where it went up were in "false money and drug trafficking". The patriots at Xinhua finish with this:
The crime rate in Macao has sustained a downturn since it returned to the motherland in 1999. Prior to that, gangland violence used to infringe the city's gaming industry, which blackened Macao's international image in the 1990s. Crimes involving in the use of gang violence has basically eradicated here in recent years with the strong support of the Chinese central government.
China cracking down on organised crime: now there's a novel idea. The biggest crime remains the obscene amounts Macau's gambling industry makes. But that's a crime where the victims choose themselves, so it is impossible to have any sympathy for them.
Everyone likes to blame fast food and movies for corrupting the youth of today. Beijing's found an even more insidious evil. Xinhua reports:
A three-month action plan focusing on the Beijing market has already discovered up to 56 kinds of illegal or unhealthy computer games--and this is even before the nationwide campaign officially gets cracking..."To protect youngsters from the influence of violent computer games and to safeguard copyright, we took action during April and June in Beijing," said Kou Xiaowei, a senior official with the State Administration of Press and Publications.
Kou said it had achieved "satisfying results."
If a Chinese official has a satifsying result, it's time to worry or get the Kleenex. The article says some of the banned games "hurt national dignity and interests". For example, 'Project IGI2: Covert Strike' has Chinese soldiers being attacked and "smears'' the Chinese army's image. Like the PLA doesn't do that itself. The other example is "Hearts of Iron", which calls for Tibetan independence and includes Taiwan Province in the territory of Japan. The horror.
I'd like to see more realistic games. One that springs to mind is where you are President of China and General-Secretary of the Communist Party and you have to run the country. There's no instruction manual because none of the controls work anyway. The game thoughtfully provides an opponent in the head of the Military Commission, who also happens to be the ex-President. Throughout the game various "crises" occur, like trouble with Taiwan, trouble with Tibet, trouble with the US, trouble with Japan and trouble with North Korea. If you go to the hardest level they include an economy factor, again over which you have little control.
I went to a small school back in Sydney. No, not for people of less than average stature (and I still maintain 5"7' is right on average, damnit). My entire graduating year had about 30 kids in it. I say about because there were one whom I was never sure was enrolled or not, but he seemed to turn up a lot. And I say kids because surely we were. The day we all left school for good was a happy day because spending 6 years of your life with the same 30 kids going through the usual adolescent dramas ends up being a mixed bag.
So it pleases me no end to have recently revived contact with one of my closest buddies from those days. He's now living outside of San Fran (for a small class we've sure dispersed) and he even has his own blog on Business Continuity, if you like that kind of thing. In the words of the anti-semitic mouse drawer: it's a small world after all.
We had a further chat with our faithful potential helper last night - the one who is waiting for a sign from God to tell her if the job was right. It turns out it was a different sign entirely she was waiting for. In the course of discussions we got down to tachlis, in particular money. After she proceeded to tell us why the job would be very difficult and worthy of a high salary, she then proceeded to tell us of her inflated expectations for her food allowance "because I've been told you need more food here." I didn't bother asking her why she figured her calorie intake need to increase when she was going to be doing the same job she was at her previous employer given she wasn't going to get the job anyway.
But we've learnt our lesson. The sign she was waiting for was a dollar sign, not a heavenly one. In the battle between God and Mammon, God hasn't got a chance.
Simon,
You posting this is downright spooky. I was listening to this very report on my drive into work this morning. This reporter, Rob Gifford, struck me as very intelligent and articulate. For someone reason I thought of you (not in that way!).
It was an interesting report about how young girls are attracted to jobs as "hostesses" by the ability to earn in one night what it takes others a month to equal. They quickly find themselves trapped in a job they hate but supporting a family that has no other way of earning that kind of money. Incredibly sad!
America's National Public Radio has a series following a reporter's 2 week trek across China. The journey on route 312 starts in Shanghai, then through rural and significantly poorer Anhui and then a report on the re-emergence of both prostitution and religion in China. It sounds like it would be great to listen to, but I'm not paying $4.95 per transcript to find out what he's got to say. Nevertheless I'd recommend it to any American readers as an insight into life in China. If any readers are able to somehow get a copy of the series I would like to hear it.
The Standard reports that many Chinese companies are being forced to bend or break rules to raise cash to survive. As Beijing's austerity drive bites companies are resorting to various tricks to obtain cash:
They are evading administrative roadbocks to domestic borrowing by applying for foreign currency loans which are then converted into yuan, diverting approved loans to other uses, and under-reporting production and investment in order to free up internally-generated cash.
Yet Chinese companies have for years been remarkably adroit at getting around the rules when there is money to be made. Though no one can quantify it, virtually all analysts agree that a significant part of the US$53 billion (HK$413.4 billion) in ``foreign direct investment'' last year was really mainland-controlled money that is moved offshore then brought back in order to evade capital controls and sometimes to win investment incentives aimed at foreign, not Chinese, investors. (my emphasis)
Something to bear in mind next time you read about China's record rates of foreign direct investment (FDI). Once you take into account flows coming from Hong Kong and Taiwan as well, there's far less "foriegn" money flowing into China than is commonly thought. Secondly I've talked before about how unreliable Chinese economic data can be. If companies are fiddling their reported numbers down, as the article implies, China may revert to under-reporting its growth while the underlying problems remain. While outsourcing remains a battleground in the US election, the reality is China has far bigger problems of its own making to worry about. America's politicians and Wal-Mart shoppers* (not to mention shareholders) should be more worried about China's domestic economic health than it's potential for "taking" jobs.
Finally don't forget that this austerity drive does not apply equally. Companies with the right connections can get around anything in China.
Tung Che-hwa has finally learnt the secret to ensure his popularity: stay out of sight. His popularity has risen to a two year, not co-incidently at the same time as he has barely featured in local news. If he keeps this up he could end up doing a double service to Hong Kong: staying out of the way and enhancing his standing. Talk about win-win. With the news dominated with the non-story of the year, which is stumping even the finest from the British Foreign Office, Tung's ratings can only rise further from here.
This is the same Hong Kong that has yet again shown its heels to its erstwhile rival, Singapore. The China Daily reports Hong Kong is the least bureaucratic region in Asia, according ot a poll of drunken expats taken at some bar after a long hot Sunday afternoon. I'm not quite sure why taking expats' opinions of Governments is considered a valid surveying technique, but whatever. I wonder if they surveyed Macau, where bureaucracy is minimal. There the casinos do Big Brother for them.
China's infrastructure is often being cited as a constraint on its economic growth. So it is good to see China is finally investing in key improvements:
China's capital Beijing, trying to flush away its reputation for primitive public toilets, plans to boost investment to build more lavatories and keep them stocked with toilet paper, the China Daily said on Tuesday.
The city government, trying to polish its image as it gears up to host the 2008 Olympic Games, pledged to invest more than 100 million yuan ($12 million) a year into modernizing its latrine infrastructure, the newspaper said.
The Olympics can already be credited with doing something good for Beijing.
Went to the doctor with Mrs M, PB and JC last night. Our doc, an avuncular Englishman of the old school, did the appropriate doctorly things. JC and PB did the usual kids things in the waiting room, playing with the toys and removing all the brouchures. Somehow PB found a water bottle and brought in; later a nurse came asking for it and I returned it. The nurse then pulled me aside and whispered, "Sir, please make sure you wash your children's hands." I asked her why? "Because she touched the water bottle," came the slightly exasperated reply. The doctor and Mrs M, who were privvy to the conversation, both laughed at once. I reassured the nurse I would take care of it and she left happy she had done her duty. This had all come just minutes after the doctor and I had discussed the trend to overly-hygenic cleanliness and the detrimental effect it can have on immunity, especially for kids.
It's OK, I told the doc. Next time PB kisses the dog I promise to wash her hands.
Isn't the point that kids are somehow attracted to all kinds of bugs that just slip them by? That they just absorb all of the radioactive material they touch and bounce along just fine? Should we put them in a bubble, or accept that this is childhood?
There's loads of time for them to get squidgy and worry about germs. And we'll have the anti-bacterial hand gel to prove it.
I'm from the school of thought that says a bit of dirt does no harm to most children, I ate my way through a few areas of garden growing up and it did me no harm.
But seeing someone wipe down babies/toddlers toys with a dirty rag that was just used on the doors of a lift isn't quite so tasty. Esp. as parents watching would presume that the play area was now clean.
According to Dean and Chief Wiggles the problem with the shipping company Atlas Lines that I previously mentioned has not actually been resolved. Via Joe there's details of the company in question, Atlas Line (USA), here. The very short story is Operation Give is a charity which many in the blogosphere have contributed to and it brings toys and other items for Iraqi kids. Now the long and the short of it is this shipping company, Atlas Line, has US$30,000 belonging to Operation Give and are not giving it back. There is documentary proof and a comprehensive timeline.
Jim or anyone else that is in a position to help, you need to get in touch with Dean Esmay and see what you can do. These guys are ruining Georgia's reputation.
Even if this ends up being a misunderstanding it is very hard to see how Atlas Line can justify their actions. It's a charity they're dealing with, not a business.
UPDATE:I didn't realise until I read over at Sgt. Hook'sOperation Shoefly that OPSF is also affected by this. So it's not one, it's two charities that are suffering here. These Atlas Line people need to know they cannot get away with this cr@p.
My Da, a wise man with a terrible sense of humour (sorry Da, but it's true), always told me that "money makes money". He also used to say that one day the Jade Monkey of Zandar would be his and he would use it to rule the world, but that story is for another time.
So Bill Gates is worth, on last count, about $1,432 squizzillion dollars. Yet he has realised there is a limit to the amount of wealth any one family needs. He decided to setup the world's biggest charity, modestly named after himself. This is something I have talked about before and this week's Economist looks at the issue of philanthropy too.
Then you read something like this. I don't quite understand why Bill's charity has decided to invest in equities instead of giving its money away. But this little Chinese company's shares jumped 50% just on the news Gates invested. Nothing else has changed at all. Just they have a new shareholder and it's Bill's charity.
What I want to know is why Gates doesn't employ this tactic more often? If he can make share prices jump like this imagine how much greater the endowment at his charity could be if he just took the trouble to invest a little instead of giving it way.
Gates can't possible give that much away effectively at one time. Trying to do so would just result in enormous waste and misallocation. The point to creating an effective foundation is to give it an endowment sufficient that it can continue on into the future.
HK:
Microsoft just declared (last week I think) that it is going to start paying out a substantial dividend.
Conrad: I agree he can't give it away all at once and his foundation is an effective way of disbursing such a huge amount. What I don't understand is why they are investing in shares.
The need is to have an endowment with a steady income that can be meted out. So, the foundation invests in stocks, bonds, and property and continually gives away the income.
China is continually being accused of knocking-off brand name goods and selling cheap imitations. The latest to bleat is the maker of Zippo lighters but the article itself points to clues the issue is not as cut-and-dried as first seems:
Zippo, which employs about 700 people, has refused to manufacture overseas. Its complaints will play a prominent role in the government's case that China needs to do a better job stopping counterfeiters...The vast majority of bogus Zippos are made in southern China at factories that can knock out 45,000 replicas a day, as many as the Zippo factory in Bradford..."The stronger our brand gets worldwide, the more problematic it becomes," Booth said. "It's just the number of plants interested in counterfeiting."
With Zippos going for $30 in China - a week's pay for some workers - the demand for cheap knockoffs is immense. Counterfeiters can make so much money on fake Zippos in a few days, it can be worth setting up shop for a week, said Peter Morici, professor of international business at the University of Maryland.
Even with rampant counterfeiting, Morici and other trade experts say Zippo won't leave China anytime soon. "This is a matter of leakage, but it's a pretty big pipe and there's going to be a lot of water running through it," he said. "It becomes a question of selling 1 million lighters when you think you could be selling 2 million."
They cannot bear to look but nor they cannot bear to stay away. The reality is China excels at copying and these companies that sell their goods at high prices are going to have to get used to it or deal with it in far more imaginative ways than bleating to politicians. For a start Zippo might consider selling their lighters for far less than US$30 each in China.
In a relate note The Standard reports the US Conference Board does not see any benefit in pressuring China to revalue the yuan. As they rightly point out, most companies already do business in foreign currencies if they are dealing with overseas counterparts, and usually that's US dollars. What they forget to mention is a revaluation of the yuan is also likely to bankrupt China's banks and cause the collapse of much of its financial system. I think even George W. would be happier with a China growing at 9% per annum, providing demand for his countries exports and keeping over a billion people in a rising standard of living, rather than the alternative a revaluation could bring.
Finally Hong Kong will be hosting the WTO meeting in December 2005, with an expected 10,000 junketeers expected to attend. I've already seen estimates that it will cost HK$200 million to stage this event. With the priceless images it will present of Hong Kong to the world, it will be money well spent. You could have a nice postcard of the rabble (in their Nikes and Levis) protesting the evils of globalisation, or a great photo of a long-haired lout in the arms of a caring police officer. The rest of the world can thank Hong Kong for drawing their rabble away from them for a week - no extra charge.
The greatest irony will be the Communist People's Liberation Army will no doubt play a prominent role in the security of the event. I will pay good money for a poster sized picture of a PLA officer with a Mao-ist anarchist Trostskite in a headlock as he gets lead to a tour of the brig of the PLA's barracks.
Richard points to the first in a series by the New York Times on the huge gap between China's urban (relatively) rich and rural poor. Richard highlights one particularly unfortunate but not uncommon story.
ESWN says stupidity can be a two-way street in dealings between East and West. He also updates the facts on the case of Zhao Yan, the Chinese woman subjected to beatings by a US Border Guard and has a story about the treatment of Chinese brides in Taiwan. Wayne says there's no shortage of mail order bride services.
ACB says China has celebrated the end of the US's Operation Summer Pulse 04 with a blast. They've also compiled a summary of China's assessments of various naval powers. Mad Minerva says the Chinese are taking all the fun out of the "guess the reaction" game.
ALN has a comprehensive summary of Chinese labour related news for July. Stephen also has a post by an Indonesian migrant worker in Hong Kong on what life is like for such people. And via ALN I came to Dan Washburn's Shanghai Diaries and this report on his trip to a village in Jiangxi. Well written and interesting stuff.
China's war on sex has gone too far, says Fons. He also points to Wang Jianshuo who says the war on these sites is causing collateral damage.
Chris has a thorough look at two books on Chinese history. I just finished the Cambridge Illustrated History of China myself and can recommend it as a good overview (albeit necessarily brief) of Chinese history and culture. It has a great selection of photographs but a word of warning: it weighs a tonne and is bulky making it very uncomfortable to read while in bed, as several bruises on my arms will attest.
Peking Dork says ESWN took too much at face value on a recent corruption case.
Korea and Japan
Conrad asks what has South Korea done to deserve such wrath from their cousins in the North? Especially when the North produces such usefulproducts. FY has a more on the defectors and Asia Times covers the route defectors have to take. Jodi points out the difficulties facing the new arrivals in South Korea and the Marmot expands on the same topic.
In today's South Korea blog blocking update, a letter by Gordon Sellar on the issue (mentioned in the previous Asia by Blog) was published in the Korea Times. Jodi says Japan is now censoring news too.
Marmot says South Korea has returned serve in the latest round of cyber-tennis.
Apparently we're losing the arms race with North Korea, via IA.
Conrad asks why foreigners would bother investing in Indonesia.
Marc takes the Philippine Government to task over its spin efforts on the testimony of a former hostage of Abu Sayyaf. Jodi says Arroyo has got to stop nannying her citizens and stop shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to Iraq.
As usual The Swanker is keeping you up-to-date on the latest Indonesian Presidential machinations.
Thanks RP. Anne - even God got a day off, so you'll have to forgive me if family and the great outdoors take precedence over this site on the weekends.
Now if you're offering to guest blog over the weekends we might be able to come to some arrangement...
Simon,
Thanks for this Asia Blog roundup. It helps me catch up with news so that I can converse with friends more easily. Also, it brings me back there, when I'm thinking of HK, et al, like I was this past weekend.
Former Hulk and good Aussie bloke Eric Banner is to become the next James Bond. Apparently the beefy beat off competition from the other main contenders Jude Law and Ewan McGregor to take over the role of the super-spy in the long-running series of films.
Kudos for picking an Aussie for this important role. Although I cannot help but feel they really missed picking the right man for the job...
We are currently looking for a new domestic helper. We have found one we are happy with in terms of experience and personality and wanted her to come in for a trial run. So yesterday Mrs M delegated to me the task of ringing her to give her the news. Let's call her R. She was unsure if she was interested in working with us as her experience is only with Chinese families. After we had intereviewed her we told her to think about it, as would we, and we would get back to her. The conversation went something like this:
Me: "Hi, we've been talking about it and have decided that you are a very good candidate for the job."
R: "Thank you, sir. But I haven't yet made my decision."
Me: "OK, when do you think you will make a decision because we are looking for someone to start right away?"
R: "Well sir, I've prayed to God and I am waiting for 2 more days for a sign from him."
Me: *stunned silence*
If Hong Kong is overtaken by a plague of locusts or the rivers turn to blood in the next few days, I'm sorry. Mrs M and I have asked R to come in for a day anyway to help her make her decision. We're tempted to help her search for signs. The bathroom mirror reading "TAKE THE JOB" might do it. I was tempted to ask her when does she think God might be getting back to her, but blasmephy never goes down well.
It leads me to another question. After interviewing many Filipinas over the past few weeks it seems that most of them here in HK are not Catholic, as I would suppose, but rather born-again Christians belonging to a plethora of evangelical churches. I don't know if this pattern is the same in the Philippines but clearly here in HK the Catholic Church is struggling against the evangelicals. It seems a key requirement of these newer churches is for members to wear brightly coloured t-shirts to interviews to prove they are good, faithful folk rather than the hedonistic type. Clearly fashion isn't always heavenly.
I once went with my maid to her church on Sunday. No idea what to expect but it turned out she was part of the Christ is Lord, United Filipina Church or something like that.
At one point in the ceremony, one of her friends noted my bemused look at all the shouting and evangelical trappings of the service. She said it probably wasn't what I was used from a Catholic or European point of view. She joked that this style of worship going down better with the Filipinas because it would be close to impossible to keep Filipinas quiet for more than fifteen minutes.
I suspect however, that most Western interpretations of Christianity have a strong bias to the concept of humanity having sinned and our own unworthy souls need to be redeemed or some such dogma. I guess the working conditions for many Filipinas is enough hardship in life without the burden of religion adding to that. Hence the need to celebrate something more joyous and happy comes through and why the evangelical style is more popular amongst Filipina workers in Hong Kong.
LOL, very funny. Gosh, more memories flooding back. From what I remember from living in Manila, there was a real struggle as both, the Catholic Church and schools, were losing people in droves.
The church was agressively pursuing people, and my arrival netted me 3 visits from various priests inviting me to their services. I think it was the fact that I might have been flusher with cash, than a more spiritual motivation.
The Straits Times has an interesting article on the growing number of Chinese websites that are exposing graft in official-dom. While not necessarily blogs these sites are fulfilling many of the same roles and are starting to have results. However there is speculation there are greater powers at work here than a few lone rangers trying to shed some light on official corruption:
...several websites here have been gaining attention lately for casting an uncomfortable spotlight on official corruption and encouraging Internet users to report such abuses.
Webmasters running two of the websites, fanfubai.com and yuluncn.com, told The Straits Times they had been publishing incriminating evidence of official wrongdoing well ahead of some of the more daring newspapers here. Citing the example of the 'scandal of the moment' involving Vice-Mayor Li Xin of Shandong province's Jining city, who is under investigation and faces imminent arrest, fanfubai.com's webmaster Liu Lishun said he published several damning photos and documents a week ahead of mainstream news portals and newspapers like the Southern Weekend...
The Internet's growing influence in China and the seemingly mysterious origins of these websites have prompted speculation in some media reports that they have high-level backing. The reports have also suggested the websites could be part of the government's push to root out corrupt local officials who might otherwise use their influence to cover up their tracks or hush up the whistle-blowers. But three of the webmasters running such sites maintained that they were merely acting as concerned citizens.
'Why do I need any special status or background to do this?' asked a Chinese journalist helping to run chinatousu. org. He declined to identify himself. However, media scholars familiar with the development of the Internet in China said with certainty that there had to be some level of official support for these sites. They pointed out that the sites fit in with the government's intention of using the Internet and e-government to promote transparency and root out abuses of power. 'It is a technological solution to a deeper cultural problem,' wrote Nanyang Technological University's Associate Professor Randolph Kluver in an e-mail reply. He added: 'There is a 'tolerance' of websites that focus on criticism, especially on corrupt or incompetent local officials. If the criticism turns to the party as a whole, however, or top-level officials, it will get shut down.'
The article finishes by saying several of the websites mentioned have been shut down or are 'under construction'. Still, it's a start.
Beijing's continuing crusade against p0rn websites continues apace, although they mention in passing they are also closing other "undesirable" sites. Yet the powers that be have missed the crucial role p0rn plays in society:
>Lack of sex education, especially for college students, is seen by some as another reason why there were so many young people browse p0rnographic webpages...Traditionally, Chinese parents have not discussed sex with their children. Many are still reluctant to do so.
Last year, China Social Survey, a well-known domestic sociological research firm, conducted a survey in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenyang and some other major Chinese cities. The findings showed that 92.5 percent of the students investigated have encountered sex-related problems, but only 2.6 percent got answers from their parents. Sex education is almost absent in universities and colleges, though related courses, limited to basic physiological knowledge, have been arranged in middle schools. Currently, only a few Chinese universities have lectures on sex education in China. Curious students are therefore often forced to turn to p0rn websites, videotapes and cartoons for answers.
That's right - p0rn is educational. I hope you learnt something today...I'd better get home and do some serious study myself.
Macau was flavour of the weekend in the newspapers here. The Sunday SCMP reported Macau's 14 casinos raked in HK$4 billion (US$512 million) last month in revenue. The Macau Government collected HK$6.5 billion in casino taxes in the first half of this year, up 42% on last year and making 78% of all Government revenue. Even bloody Willian Hung, the man who's 15 minutes is taking an awfully long time, had his Asia debut in Macau on the weekend (reports said takings were down significantly at that casino).
The genii at the SCMP have then realised there's a perfect way to drag the story out: combine Hong Kong's love of gambling with its love of property. So inevitably all this has been followed up with today's front page splash on Macau's booming property market. Admist all the hype there's even the priceless quote from a Macau property type: "This is unlike the property bubble that burst in 1993. This time, Macau's economy may be growing rapidly, and it may appear as if the property market is bubbling. But even if it is, it is a solid bubble that will not burst. Who knew there were such bubbles?
This is the same paper that followed up this story on an adult film company's recruitment efforts by sending a reporter and getting him to file a story on the experience. The article in Sunday's SCMP didn't even succeed as a schoolboy excursion in titilation. It's what we've come to expect from the SCMP...not very much.
According to AFP (no link): At least 80% of mainland adults have dental problems and 57% of rural Chinese - or 500 million people - have never brushed their teeth...The National Leading Group for Dental Disease Prevention found that only 0.22% of adults had good dental health.
![[boomerang]](http://simonworld.mu.nu/boomerang2.gif){kind=small}
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