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August 04, 2004
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Laws of unintended consequences
The Standard reports that many Chinese companies are being forced to bend or break rules to raise cash to survive. As Beijing's austerity drive bites companies are resorting to various tricks to obtain cash: They are evading administrative roadbocks to domestic borrowing by applying for foreign currency loans which are then converted into yuan, diverting approved loans to other uses, and under-reporting production and investment in order to free up internally-generated cash.Something to bear in mind next time you read about China's record rates of foreign direct investment (FDI). Once you take into account flows coming from Hong Kong and Taiwan as well, there's far less "foriegn" money flowing into China than is commonly thought. Secondly I've talked before about how unreliable Chinese economic data can be. If companies are fiddling their reported numbers down, as the article implies, China may revert to under-reporting its growth while the underlying problems remain. While outsourcing remains a battleground in the US election, the reality is China has far bigger problems of its own making to worry about. America's politicians and Wal-Mart shoppers* (not to mention shareholders) should be more worried about China's domestic economic health than it's potential for "taking" jobs. Finally don't forget that this austerity drive does not apply equally. Companies with the right connections can get around anything in China. * Wal-Mart imported US$12 billion from China in 2002 and 10% of all US imports from China go via Wal-Mart. posted by Simon on 08.04.04 at 10:15 AM in the
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