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May 17, 2004
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Slow boats to China
The Economist this week has two articles on China's economy. In their leader they warn that a slowdown in China will have global implications although they are not as pessimistic about a "hard landing" in China as some. What worries them is the prospect of a “twin tightening” of monetary policy in both China and America...If America's Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates more rapidly than expected and this happens at about the same time that China's economy slows sharply, stockmarkets would take a beating and global growth could stall. Monetary-policy announcements from Beijing are still not as important as the Delphic words of Alan Greenspan, the Fed's chairman. But as the weight of China's economy in the world continues to grow over coming years, one day they will be.In all the gloom about an upcoming Chinese economic slowdown the reality is China will grow into one of the world's top economic powers.The broader implications of that in geopolitical as well as economic terms are not often debated in all the current discussion about the Middle East. The second article is a far more thorough look at China's efforts to engineer a slowdown, rather than the global implications of that slowdown. I'm going to quote liberally from it because it is a fine summary of the issues at stake. Rumours are rife that the People's Bank of China is about to raise interest rates (one-year bank-lending rates are currently 5.3%) for the first time in nine years. The fact that this is even being discussed shows how concerned the Chinese leadership is about the investment boom...The State Council, China's highest executive body, has issued new guidelines requiring companies to use more of their own capital and less debt to fund steel, aluminium, cement and property projects, the sectors which show most signs of overheating. Provincial government leaders have also been told to be stricter about approving investment in these sectors. On May 9th, the State Development and Reform Commission, the top economic policymaking body, instructed local officials to cap price increases in areas such as utility bills and public transport if inflation, currently 3%, rises much more.This last point emphasises a huge problem with China - their statistics are rubbish. And with bad information it becomes very difficult to know what is going on, especially in a country so vast. While this is an important part of China's economic reform to get right it is also riddled with problems. Local officials don't want accurate numbers. They over-estimate and inflate reports because that's what they are assessed on. That's a natural response to their incentives. What it means is in aggregate China's numbers are junk. ...Hong Liang, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, thinks that talk of a hard landing is premature, because there are several differences between today and the early 1990s. Policy has been tightened sooner this time. In 1993 inflation was already 15% (it rose to 28% at its peak) before the central bank tightened, while money-supply growth then was twice as rapid as today's. In the early 1990s, real interest rates were negative, falling at one point to minus 13%. Today, bank lending rates are positive (see chart). Even so, the level of 5.3% is far too low for an economy where nominal GDP is growing at around 15%.It is not demand that is causing this boom, it is over-investment. That's interesting because every Western company piling into China is doing so to capitalise on "growing demand". It is growing, but it's not booming. That bodes well for the chances of avoiding widespread devestation if things turn sour. The losers will be investors, not consumers. The debate over the extent to which China's economy is overheating is sometimes a bit confused. The term “overheating” is normally used when an economy is suffering from excess demand, which then causes inflation to rise. But China's boom has been led by investment, which means that supply is booming as well as demand. As a result, the biggest risk to the economy is not inflation, but overinvestment. A glut of property or industrial capacity could depress profitability, bankrupt firms and swell banks' non-performing loans.We are at the top of the boom and China's banks have up to 50% of assets as bad loans. Imagine what they'll be like if the economy turns. The other good point is a "slowdown" is relative. China won't stop growing. It will stop growing at such a furious pace. The measures taken so far have lacked teeth. The People's Bank of China is therefore likely to raise interest rates and to introduce further, stricter quantitative measures to curb lending to the hottest sectors. The recent rash of announcements suggest that the government is starting to panic. The longer the economy grows at its current pace, the greater the risk of a hard landing, which would push up unemployment—something which Beijing cannot afford because of the risk of social unrest.And that's the crux of the matter. The one thing that scares Beijing is "social unrest". If you don't have a popular mandate (ie if you aren't elected) then legitimacy only comes from being a benevolent ruler. In China that used to mean making sure there was enough to eat. Now it is changing to mean there's enough jobs so people can have a rising standard of living. That's the problem with people -they always want more. What do economists mean by a hard or a soft landing? In developed economies a hard landing implies negative growth, but not in China, where growth has averaged 9% over the past two decades. A soft landing would be growth slowing from its current 10% to not much less than 7%, the minimum needed to create enough jobs to absorb surplus rural labour and workers laid off by state-owned firms. Even that could still imply a halving in the rates of growth in industrial production and investment. A hard landing means growth significantly below 7%. Official figures suggest that growth after the early 1990s boom never dipped below 7%—a perfect soft landing. But many economists reckon that growth really slowed to 3-4%.Bet you won't hear too much about that during the upcoming US elections. But what about another apparently telling piece of evidence: China's huge trade surplus with America? This, argue American politicians, proves that the yuan is undervalued. In fact it does not. China's overall trade balance was in deficit in the first three months of this year, thanks to strong import growth.That won't be mentioned much in the US, either. A third argument is that China's large surplus on its basic balance (the sum of the current-account and net foreign direct investment) and its huge build-up of foreign reserves are both symptoms of currency undervaluation. Mr Xie again disagrees. The increase in reserves, he argues, partly reflects speculative capital inflows. Moreover, if the capital account was opened (which is unlikely over the next four or five years), allowing firms and households to hold foreign assets, the yuan would probably fall, not rise, as the Chinese diversified their savings.So China has deliberately removed a tool from their eocnomic kit and even they aren't sure if the exchange rate is at the "right" level. Only markets can really settle such issues for sure, but opening the yuan to convertability will bankrupt the entire financial system. So America's politicians may or may not get the yuan exchange rate they want and cause an economic collapse with very definite consequences. That's why American political calls for a revaluation are cr@p. The strongest argument for a revaluation now is not that the yuan is undervalued, but that an adjustment would halt speculative capital inflows and so mop up the excess liquidity. It would be unwise for China to float the yuan until it has cleaned up its banking system, but it could repeg against the dollar at a higher rate and shift to a currency basket, which is what the government has said it would like to do. The snag, however, is that a small revaluation of only 5% might encourage expectations of a further appreciation and attract more capital inflows. Any revaluation would need to be large enough, say 10-20%, to head off such speculation. But a rise of such proportions would be unacceptable to the government, so the yuan is likely to remain fixed for the moment.That final point is the most important. If you look only 10 to 15 years into the future, China's economic future is bright. The next few years are far harder to read. But at least China has learnt from the last time this happened in the early to mid 90s. Hopefully this time they are acting early enough to forestall worse happening later. Perhaps Mr. Greenspan could actually learn something from China after all? posted by Simon on 05.17.04 at 11:09 AM in the China economy category.
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