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August 12, 2004

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Taiwa's military estimates it could hold off an invansion by the PLA for as long as 2 weeks. This is meant to be good news, because a recent computer game simulation said Taipei could fall in 6 days. The difference comes down to the assumptions made.

But the mass-circulation China Times quoted "authoritative military sources" as saying the computer had made certain assumptions -- such as no help from the United States -- and it did not mean Taiwan would be defeated so quickly.

"The sources indicate, in the event of a 'first strike', the air force and navy can preserve of their fighting capabilities while the army can maintain 80 percent of its fighting capabilities," the newspaper said. "Under these circumstances, Taiwan can hold on for two weeks in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait."

However, the United States -- Taiwan's main arms supplier -- had told the island's military it should be prepared to "fight independently" for a month, the sources told the newspaper.

So by the time the Americans turn up it would have been Chinese territory for a couple of weeks already. And given how stretched the US military is it could take far longer than a month for an effective boost from the US. Another good reason for Taiwan to tread carefully.

 posted by Simon on 08.12.04 at 02:28 PM in the




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Comments:

Under the new US Fleet Response Plan, as seen during Operation Summer Pulse 04, the US could mobilise 7 of its twelve carrier groups within 30 days which I think is where the one month comes in, but since America has been telling president Chen that he isn't spending enough money on his armies, and has been encouraging him to buy more weapons from them, I think that anything that comes out of America on this issue has a few strings in tow.

Right now I wouldn't rate Taiwanse chances of holding out for two weeks, not because its military is not up to the task, but because the generals would rather live under Chinese ocupation than be shot.

My money is on a negotiates surrender, following the overthrow of president Chen from indisde, that will eventually lead to Taiwan doing pretty much what it has been doing for the last fifty years, only with less US weapons and without President Chen.

Sure there will be a brief period of occupation and a lot of pro independance supporters will be marched off to the maniland for staged trials that will end in the death sentance or lengthy times in jail, but just as Hong Kong has survived so will Taiwan.

I can't see this thing lasting until the Americans get ther, unless their already steaming out of Japan as the troops ships depart from China, and I certainly can't see the US recapturing Taiwan, which internaitonally is still considered to be part of China.

Now a plug for my page on Summer pulse 04: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com/read/754285.htm

 posted by: Angry Chinese Blogger on 08.12.04 at 03:44 PM [permalink]




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