October 29, 2004
Marx at work

Many believe Communism is close to dead. North Korea and Cuba, the last two hold-outs, are both basket cases. Otherwise the ideology has been superceded, even in China. Except for one place, close to the heart of even the biggest capitalist multinational.

We here at the Traktor factory put up with a lot. We are rapidly approaching one of the worst times of the year: the appraisal process. In the very best touchy-feely HR way, this requires employees to sit down with their bosses and fill in boxes on a form that will be filed away and never looked at again. Words such as "objective", "team", "potential", "diversity", "accomplishments" and "development" are bandied about. Bewildered employees and their put-upon bosses go through the motions because hell hath no fury than an HR staffer scorned. Employees fill out a self-appraisal form and then sit down with the boss to discuss both that and the boss's view of the employee. Once each employee's many shortcomings and few achievements are duly recorded, with immeasurable objectives set in ink, it is time to turn the tables. The employee, in a "360 degree review process", gets to evaluate a boss. While ever assurance is given that this is open and their are no repurcussions the reality is you work with your boss every day (and let's note it here that mine is great and really is a role model) whereas some HR flunky will see your form as a chore to be entered into a database so management can have a report on the what employees think: all 300,000 of us.

There has only ever been one similar ideology in history: Marxist criticism and self-criticism. Forget about Reds under the bed. They're all alive and well in your Human Resources department. Think about that next time the company launches a "cultural revolution" or "5 year plan".

The Commies won after all. Who knew?

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[boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:24
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About me (redux)

In May I had an About Me post, but instead of me listing useless trivia about myself I asked readers to ask questions that I would respond to in turn. Originally Jim and Pylorns obliged and there it stayed until yesterday. Pieman and more recently Ilana has asked some questions to which I've now responded.

With plenty of new readers since then, you are all cordially invited to join in and ask questions in the comments of the About Me post, and I'll post the question and answer in the main post.

UPDATE: It's been updated.

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[boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:47
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Media bashing HK style

Hong Kong's media had a bad day yesterday. The esteemed Far Eastern Economic Review has effectively folded, going from a weekly to a monthly cut and paste job with op-eds instead. The world has its global weeklies such as Time and The Economist against which a regional mag like the FEER was always going to struggle. It's done well to last as long as it has.

Far worse for the local newspapers is the news that Hong Kong's police will move in December to new digitally encrypted radios for communications. Instead of reporters being able to listen in to the police network they will have to rely on police internet bullitens instead. The papers make a habit of arrving at the scenes of accidents before police to take graphic photos they can splash across the front page or to expose whichever celebrity has had a car accident. This will no longer be possible as the police will only give out surnames and the broad nature of the incident.

You can expect Hong Kong's papers will protest about freedom of the press and the pubilc's right to know. It's not. And it should make looking at a news-stand a lot easier in the mornings from December onwards.

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[boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:50
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The right place

Politicians often get a bad rap, commonly putting up with the cliche "they're all crooks." Turns out in India it's well deserved. Almost a quarter of India's 545 national MPs face criminal charges including rape, murder and extortion. That's only national MPs and only criminal cases. It must make the police's job easy, knowing where to find the usual suspects.

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[boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:31
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October 28, 2004
China raises interest rates

Bloomberg has reported that China has raised its interest rates by 0.27%, taking the lending rate to 5.58% and the deposit rate to 2.25%. This is the first time rates have risen in China for 9 years and is a stepping up in the Government's efforts to control China's economic growth and inflation. The flipside is this will increase pressure on China's currency to appreciate/revalue as even more foreign money is sucked in to chase these higher yields. This was a difficult choice facing China and they've opted for domestic economic control at the possible expense of their control over the currency. China has also removed the ceiling on bank lending rates, a small deregulatory step in freeing up the financial system.

It makes this article look pretty stupid.

The announcements are in Chinese on the PBoC website: here and here.

Developing...

Update: the reaction so far? The US dollar has strengthened against all the major currencies, commodities are getting hit e.g. copper's down 1.6%, gold's down, US Treasuries down in price, commodity company shares down e.g. BHP down 3.3%, Rio and Anglo American 2% and likely more Chinese rate rises to come. This is going to have a far bigger economic impact on the world than whatever happens in America next Tuesday.

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[boomerang] Posted by Simon at 19:53
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Asia by Blog

Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

This edition contains changing Chinese newspaper terms, football, New York Times lies, killer tomatoes, Koreans defecting both ways, death in Singapore, the curious case of the dictator's son and Maria Sharapova's underpants, plus plenty more...

Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Look through this fascinating list of changing terms used in Chinese papers over the past 50 years. It tells you a lot about the changes the country has gone through in that time.
  • Joe asks questions in dealing with China's nationalist movement. My response is here.

  • A good look at China's economic and foreign exchange policy.
  • While China's soccer is a mess, it's really becoming a modern nation now it is getting its own football hooligan law...but the law isn't just about football.
  • Andres has two excerpts from Red Dust. The first on the campaign against spiritual pollution and the next on the River of Ghosts.
  • Attack of the killer Chinese Tomatoes, in Italian.
  • We Observe the World is a project by Chinese journalism students, bringing to the world first hand opinions by China's next generation. Joe Bosco is behind the project.
  • China is a partner in Europe's Galileo satellite network, a rival to America's GPS. ACB looks at the issues.
  • Chinese workers are striking in larger numbers.
  • China's emerging middle "stratum".
  • Another piece of NYT misinformation unearthed by Jeremy.
  • China rounded up 65 potential North Korean defectors, attacked them with cattle prods and asked Western embassies to please stop helping them.
  • Via Fons, the Globe and Mail looks at the impact of the internet of China's youth. Could the USA be doing more to help the net in China? Matthew draws attention to the entire excellent Globe and Mail series, with a truckload of varied and intelligent articles.
  • Why use English signs in China?
  • Brilliant title: Bonfire of the bourgeois vanities...Running Dog takes an excellent look at the madness of the Cultural Revolution.

    Korea and Japan

  • This could be huge: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's son, who may or may not have been living outside of the North since 2001, may have deliberately left a memo attacking the North Korean regime. Perhaps the start of a struggle for succession?
  • Jodi looks at a shocking form of discrimination against HIV positive non-Koreans.
  • It makes a change when there are South Koreans defecting to the North through a hole in the fence.
  • Seoul will remain Korea's capital (forcing some to drink) and Infidel uses the decision to look at the regional rivalries and disparities within the two Koreas. Oranckay looks at the same thing from a political view. Infidel also looks at the economic and political preparations for Korean unification.
  • Korea has the fourth highest suicide rate after Hungary, Japan and Finland. Marmot's found a common factor between all four countries.
  • Terrorists took a Japanese hostage in Iraq, but Koizumi will not withdraw troops. Joi Ito has an interesting slant on the Japanese reaction.
    Kirk has a Korean blogging round-up.

    SE and Other Asia

  • Indian Hindu nationalism as dangerous as Islamic fundamentalism.
  • Thailand had 79 people die in police custody. Terrorists plot revenge and get their justifications ready...along with their Wahhabi connections.
  • The original hobbits were Indonesian. Look out New Zealand. Someone's not surprised at the find.
  • Thai monks know how to party.
  • Jeff Ooi says the US Secret Service outdoes the Gestapo and the Red Army. Rajan deals with this stupidity.
  • Frisk Dude's SE Asia roundup is up to edition 34.
  • An Australian faces the death penalty in Singapore. Hicky has the case against the death penalty, Australia and Amnesty's pleas to Singapore, an SMH editorial "The Death Penalty as Society's Loss" and Singapore as Disneyland with a death penalty. The death penalty never works, anywhere.
  • Like that other rising Asian power, India's military needs to modernise.

    Miscellany

  • A look at the rise of Asian film-making. The Economist this week also sang the praises of South Korean cinema (sub req'd).
  • The real reason attendance was so high at a Japanese tennis tournament? Undies.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:41
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    A different kind of international trade

    Could Colin Powell's controversial statement on Taiwan yesterday, which didn't go down so well, actually be part of a greater bargain with China? US efforts to get North Korea talking again and China more involved in the process require a quid pro quo, says this article. China is extracting its price from the US in order to get Kim Jong-Il to the table again. The article says the payoff may include concessions on Taiwan, the US backing off selling advanced weapons to Taiwan, a lifting of the US arms embargo and improved engagement with East Asia by the White House. Some of this is unlikely regadless if the Bush administration is re-elected, except perhaps the change in stance on Taiwan.

    However if Kerry is elected things could become a lot more interesting. Kerry has a more bilateral approach to North Korea rather than the current administration's multilateral one. The article thinks Kerry may be more open to a deal with China and North Korea on the basis of pragmatism and national interests than Bush, whose ideological preoccupation has been seen as a major obstacle for the past four years by friends and foes alike. That makes absolutely no sense at all. Kerry's North Korea policy emphasises bilateral talks concurrently with the 6 party talks. His op-ed piece from August 2003 in the WaPo makes no mention of China at all. So this talk of a bargain with China over North Korea doesn't stand up if Kerry's elected. Yes he's pragmatic, but he's not going to make bargains with an emerging world power over North Korea. At least I hope not.

    It's interesting that on this issue Kerry has the more hawkish position. Whether his approach could get results remains to be seen. He's got to get elected first.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:31
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    Undermining the great firewall

    The Heritage Foundation has an article on China's Orwellian Internet. It summaries the history of China and its internet, including the jailing of cyberdissidents, the army of censors the police the internet, the current anti-porn crusade, tracking of mobile phone messages and the "aid of US firms" in the clampdown (on which Tom has more and more). The article correctly argues that if democracy in China is a US policy goal then the internet is a key part of bringing about that change. The author proposes three strategies to help break down the Great Firewall:

    1. Designate Internet censorship and monitor­ing systems as “police equipment" so they become regulated under Export Administration Regulations.
    2. Renew research into anti-censorship tech­nologies, although Chinese bloggers have found plenty of ways around it already.
    3. Establish an Office of Global Internet Free­dom to co-ordinate and monitor these efforts, although personally I'm not sure another Government office is going to help matters much.

    China understands the power of the internet to undermine its rule and usher in democracy. That's why it watches and controls it so closely. While these suggestions will help, the firewall itself will likely eventually fall because it is an unsustainable model for controlling information and the net.

    (via Enzo)

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:42
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    Shooting feet

    China's rapidly imploding Chinese Football Association (to catch up, try here and here) has now docked another major club points and levied a fine after the team walked off due to a disputed refereeing decision. The CFA now has seven of its top teams threatening to boycott the rest of the season until the proposed reforms are carried out. However the CFA refuses to postpone the games and insists that reform happens within the existing CFA structure.

    To make matters worse the CFA proposed adding an extra game to decide who goes in the final eight World Cup qualifiers for the Asian zone. FIFA rejected this outright. China proposed this because they now face an uphill battle to qualify, having lost to Kuwait and now needing to beat Hong Kong by at least 2 more goals than the margin in the Kuwait/Malaysia match. More on that here, here and here.

    The good news for Chinese sport is they won in the Asian Rugby Tournament against India last night, winning 50-15. No walkouts, no controversy.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:03
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    October 27, 2004
    (Chinese) Food for thought

    Before diving into the meat of this post, I'd like to mention a new blog focussed on China matters: Fabian's Hammer. On the Asian blogroll and interesting posts such as questioning Chinese nationalism and its implications.

    Which segues nicely into the thought-provoking post by Joe at Winds of Change on the same question: China's growing nationalist movement. This is a follow up from Joe's post on neo-fascism and China's future and was sparked by the same Globe and Mail article that Fabian discussed above: China Nationalist Fervour Runs Amok. As an aside, kudos to the Globe and Mail for such an extensive and intelligent series of articles on China.

    Joe poses a set of questions about the potential for nationalism and fascism to overrun China and what that might mean. I strongly recommend you read the post and follow the interesting set of links Joe has compiled.

    Before I add my $0.02 to the pile I'd note it is important to keep China's history and culture in mind, rather than viewing it through a "Western" mindset. China for literally hundreds or even thousands of years was a feudal kingdom but with key differences to what would be viewed as fascist today. For example the national civil service examination system usually prevented wealthy and powerful families from cementing their influence and allowed for a merit based system of promotion, regardless of wealth and station. Also while it may not seem like it, in fact the current rulers of China are similar in format and nature to China's historical political structure. It was the unsettled years at the end of the Qing dynasty and the establishment of the Nationalist Government that were the aberration in Chinese history, not the current system. Another mitigating factor against the rise of fascism is China's vastness. While reasonably (albeit not totally) homogenous in race, China is a massive country with wide differences between regions. What appears to be strong central rule is actually more like an overall co-ordinating body that the various provinces report and pay tribute to, again like China of old. China's provincial and local governments remain strong and tolerant of central rule only so long as it benefits the regions in turn. The imposition of a structure akin to World War 2 fascist states such as Germany or Italy would simply not work in China.

    China is a proud country with a long history. Like many countries with a great deal of homogeniety, racism and nationalism is commonplace. This is because there is little sense of "other". For example Hong Kong recently introduced anti-discrimination laws that are discriminatory. Indeed even that law is progress compared to the blatant and open racism that occurs in mainland China against non-Han Chinese. In fact there have been articles in Chinese papers arguing racism can be legitimate. This naturally leads to a fierce nationalism that explains, for example, why China's population is firmly behind in the leadership in aggressively dealing with Taiwan. The same fierce nationalism true of other Asian countries, for example Japan. Combined with Asia's difficult history (not just modern, either) you can begin to understand the competing forces at play in the region, as shown lately in the Japanese push for a UN Security Council seat. Nationalism is nothing new, especially in China. It is, in fact, a thousand year old force that has been vital in seeing China become a nation despite a turbulent history. Is it growing worse? Not as far as I can tell. So long as the Taiwan issue burns so brightly that will remain the main outlet for Chinese nationalist fervour. If (when?) Taiwan and China reach a settlement under some kind of reunion, then it may be time to worry about China's further nationalist aims. But in such a huge country that is safely content with its existing boundaries, the only extension of further nationalism will be to turn China into another superpower.

    The China as superpower debate is often bandied about without reliance on the facts. Jacques Chirac as recently as a few weeks ago was in China, showing French arms and quietly bandying the idea of Europe and China emerging as counterweights to US "hegemony" (I hate that word). It may one day happen that China will rival the USA. But that day is a long way into the future. Militarily and economically China is a long way from catching up to anything near the USA's levels. China's leadership knows it, even if they don't actively talk the idea down. It flatters China's place in the world, but it is an emerging global power, but nothing more. The recent G8 meeting and China's attendance are testimony to that.

    There are good reasons to think that China's populace would not put up with damaging nationalism. For example the growing middle class know their future is tied to greater integration and trade with the world, not retreat from it. China's deliberate merchantilism ties China's fate intimiately with the USA's, at least economically. China holds the second highest amount of US dollars as reserves in the world, after Japan: something like US$450 billion. This is invested in US Treasuries and the like; China has no interest in seeing this money being blown away by its own moves. The only issue that has the potential to force China beyond its own economic interests is Taiwan, which can be viewed as an internal Chinese issue. As an extension of nationalism it would come at great economic cost - a price the country might be prepared to pay, but a cost nonetheless.

    The difference between Chinese nationalism and those of European countries in the leadup to WW2 is whereas those countries were trying to recapture past political and economic glories, China is attaining this glory in a global sense for the first time. It is coming off a much lower base and has a huge amount to go before it ever rivals Western levels.

    China has constraints on its growth that Joe alludes to in his posting. The potential remains for China to become more assertive on the global stage, especially to defend its energy security and economic growth. Already the world is seeing some of the results of China's growth in higher commodity and oil prices. China's environment is a mess and the rapid depletion of water tables, droughts and over-cultivation are all problems the country is dealing with. The rapid migration from country to city and the large and growing gaps in wealth between these two are large factors in China's future. But again all of these are internal domestic issues, not factors that will drive a sense of nationalism. Now that China has adopted a path of market economics (after a fashion) it will continue to grow and catch up to the rest of the world, even though as Joe mentiosn there are no doubt going to be hiccups on the way. But to put the gap into perspective, even if China outgrows America by 6% on average every year, it will take 176 years to catch up in terms of GDP. At the same time America will not stand still, waiting for China to catch up in military and political terms. That will continue to remain a check on any growing Chinese ambitions.

    Joe also asks if the CCP is keeping the nationalist movement on a leash to use to its own ends. To me this is muddled thinking (with all due respect). China's Communist Party is a nationalist movement and has been since its founding. Now that to a large extent Communism has been dismantled in China you can argue that it is only a nationalist movement that serves to unify a wide and varying country.

    Originally Joe postulated:

    ...I was asked about threats to the future peace and stability of the world. Islamofascism was #1, of course, but I also spent a bit of time explaining my worries about one possible future for China: a future of state capitalism under dictatorial control, a strong need for external resources to fuel that economy, carefully fostered xenophobia, a legacy of belief in the racial superiority of Chinese peoples, a major demographic problem in an excess of young males, and the meme that China is being cheated of its rightful place in the world. Germany's history in the 20th century teaches us what this combination portends.
    Until his final sentence he hits the key issues facing China in the years ahead. Where I disagree is that the lessons of Germany can tell us what is in store for China. China is unlike any Western country and its future will not be an imitation of modern Western history. I for one don't see Chinese nationalism as a dangerous element in the world in the years ahead, with the notable exception of Taiwan. But Joe has posted a set of interesting questions that deserve consideration and debate.



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:22
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    China's middle class

    The China Daily takes a look at China's middle stratum, noting that "middle class" is considered politically incorrect in China and middle stratum is more acceptable.

    A report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says the middle class was 19% of China's 1.3 billion population. With projected income and economic growth, this should reach 40% of the total by 2020, according to the report. The definition is a family with assets between Yuan 150,000 - 300,000 (about US$18,000 to US$36,000).

    Regardless of the exact number China is rapidly gaining a class of people who are increasing in affluence and disposable income. If they can overcome their natural inclination to save (Chinese private savings are as much as 25% of income, compared to low single figures in many Western countries) China's consumers will become a factor in global consumption. But they will not become the solution to all companies' growth questions in the years to come. Look at those numbers again. We're talking about families with total assets of about US$25,000 on average. Sure the cost of goods is lower in China and on a purchasing parity basis this amount gets you more bang for your buck. But it does not mean that suddenly Chinese consumers will imitate Western ones in both the quantum and pattern of consumption. The rapid growth in Chinese wealth is great but there is still a massive gap to catch up to Western consumption and wealth levels. China's GDP is just over US$1,000 per person; Hong Kong's is over US$27,000 per persno.

    This leads to the next problem: the growing inequality in wealth distribution in China. I've talked previously of the growing differences between the rich urban coast and poor rural interior in China. In Communist China the Gini coefficient has now risen to 0.39 against the international average of 0.40*. China's farmers earn on average US$317 per year, which has risen 4% in 2003 despite boom times for rural China. So in fact the urban rich have average incomes far higher than the per capita GDP suggests. As my pervious post put it, there are two Chinas: a wealthy coastal urban China that is rapidly becoming like the West and a poor rural army of peasants struggling to divine any benefits from China's new wealth.

    This presents the Chinese leadership with two challenges. Firstly they need to ensure that this second, poor China gathers at least some of the benefits of this new golden age of Chinese economic expansion. The Communists based themselves and their legitimacy on representing the peasantry and advancing their interests. At the same time the leadership need to deal with a growing group that have something worth protecting in terms of assets and lifestyle. While the emergence of China's middle class is at an early stage, it is going to pose a growing challenge to China's governance.

    * 0 means perfect equality; 1 means all wealth is in the hands of only one person



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:36
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    Please stop helping

    China have very nicely asked foreign embassies in Beijing to stop sheltering North Korean refugees. Why? Because they are really "illegal migrants led by activists with 'ulterior motives.'" Those motives being freedom from oppression, food, shelter; you know little things like that.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:19
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    Japanese hostage in Iraq

    As usual Rusty has the details; a Japanese national is being held hostage in Iraq, threatened with beheading unless Japan withdraws troops from Iraq. Apparently the hostage is a "drifter" who hasn't spoken to his family in months. His family didn't even know he was in Iraq. The kidnapping is part of these terrorists strategy to test each country's resolve in Iraq.

    Thankfully Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi has categorically stated his forces will not withdraw from Iraq. Japan has already successfully faced down these kidnappers once, when in April 3 aid workers and 2 journalists were taken but released unharmed. Those hostages faced a torrent of abuse when they returned to Japan for putting themselves in harm way. The same fate awaits this young man if, and I pray he does, returns to Japan unharmed. These terrorists have picked the wrong country to try and force a withdrawal. A quick perusal of modern history shows Japan does not easily surrender.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:14
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    Beauty not brains

    She might be pretty, but movie star (Crouching Tiger, 2046) Zhang Ziyi isn't going to help her popularity in Hong Kong:

    Ziyi says, "I think Hong Kong - they are just snobbish. I don't know, they live in such a small...' The actress was then interrupted by the manager LING LUCAS, who interjected, "Oh honey, I don't think you should go there. We live in a little island."

    Ziyi quickly altered her opinion about Hong Kong, and said, "I love Hong Kong. The food is so great."

    That's what happens when you're "too busy and famous" because you're a Hollywood star now. Thank God her publicist was at the interview; otherwise we might have heard what she really thinks.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:00
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    New US policy on Taiwan?

    With a week to go to the US elections, suddenly it seems Colin Powell has altered US policy on Taiwan. After meeting with Chinese officials, where the usual exchanges took place, Powell said in an interview "there is only one China. Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy," a marked difference from the previous ambigious policy of the US. Suffice to say Taiwan is pissed off and the State Department is scrambling. Even China isn't sure what this all means, suspicious of the motives behind the move and have rejected Powell's call for talks with Taiwan.

    Not a good time to be making gaffes.

    UPDATE: David's right, I've missed the big story: FOOD FIGHT! If you've seen the Cat in the Hat (which I have, several times, thanks to the kids), you'll appreciate the drama and entertainment Taiwan's Parliament provides for all of us.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:44
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    Asia by Blog - Month in Review

    This is cross-posted at Winds of Change.

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. Previous editions can be found here.

    This edition contains a summary of the previous month's editions of Asia by Blog...

    China, Taiwan and Hong Kong

    Politics

  • There may be more to the case of arrested NYT researcher Zhao Yan than just the breaking of the Jiang resignation story. The IHT is saying China should release NYT researcher Zhao Yan as a sign of Hu Jintao's new reign. However Hu's rule will not be a massive shift from the old regime, but rather an extremely "subtle" change.

  • Meet John Kamm, someone you should know about.

  • Phil looks at the Taiwan/China arms race and predicts a winner.

  • China's navy is making inroads into South Asia. And elsewhere China takes its first steps in international peacekeeping and humanitarian operations.

  • Taiwan's Foreign Minister slags off plus the response from Mr Brown and Satay look at the lost in translation stakes. Itsnot fair.

  • The authors of the now banned Study of Chinese Peasants have won a major European prize.

  • America is send a naval battle group to patrol the Sea of Japan - close to both Taiwan and North Korea.

  • Hong Kongers are both smarter and more patriotic than TV gives them credit for. ESWN looks at the issue of anthems and sums up: If this national anthem thing bothers you, you just hold it against them and don't let them get the satisfaction. Just remember who these people are and make sure they don't get what they want. Ever.

  • Kevin pointed me to this little known incident in Beijing recently, with international implications. Read it...very funny.

  • Beijing is sending peacekeepers to Haiti, in America's backyard. The world's changed.

  • China and Russia sorted out where their border is, but don't want people to know.

  • Matthew comprehensively looks at China's foreign policy.

  • The Dalai Lama offered, and China said no.

  • Is Osama bin Laden hiding in China?
  • Economy and Lifestyle

  • Amongst others, Disney, McDonalds and Coke are staking their business models on China.

  • Tom discusses the possibility that China might start dumping their US dollar investments, with the inevitable "blame Bush" angle. Problem is where else will they go? The yuan is pegged only against the US dollar - it would be taking a hell of a gamble to start investing in Euros or even (perish the thought) Yen instead. China and Japan are hostages of their large US dollar holdings. Dumping them only hurts themselves.

  • Property is all the rage in Hong Kong again. ESWN explains why those in 40 square foot units are living in relative luxury. I looked at the growing demand but lack of supply of bigger units in HK and why property in HK is forming a new bubble.

  • Driving on China's roads can be murder. And even worse the WHO says Beijing is underestimating the numbers by more than 100,000 deaths a year. Phil looks at solutions.

  • Chris looks at the huge value of Hong Kong's helper army.

  • To get a credit card in China don't worry about your financial history.

  • China's mining disaster is unfortunately nothing new. Liberalisation and reform may be the answer, although Infidel worries about nuclear power in China.

  • The latest form of Western cultural imperialism has breached China's defenses...and they seem happy about it. Conrad, however, has a problem with the advertising.
  • History, Sport and Culture

  • Not all Ferrari drivers were winners at the Shanghai Grand Prix.

  • The Qing dynasty also had an Idol show.

  • Jodi points out China celebrated National Day by speeding up its death machine.

  • China is taking concrete steps in its fight against AIDS, on the subways and in the pubs.

  • The Chinese are actually Jewish.

  • China's children are going crazy and Jodi's worried.

  • All is not well in Chinese football with more developments and what this means for broader China here.

  • China takes their lion statues seriously. Very seriously.

  • John comments on a repulsive TV ad on Chinese TV for an abortion clinic. On the other hand Jeremy has ads we'd like to see.

  • The CIA have released a set of documents analysing China's leadership and the CCP back in the days of Mao. They're generating a lot of interest.
  • Information

  • Google responds to the China news censorship story, although many, including Fons and Andres, are unconvinced. Adam has an open letter to Google. Would you rather not have Google News in China at all? (Jeremy agrees, as does the WSJ.)
  • Korea and Japan

  • A memo to North Koreans: if you're going to invade an embassy, don't make it a Canadian one.

  • In order for Japan to get its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, China has helpfully laid out the barriers it sees, which Chinese Suburbia has helpfully scored.

  • Even ex-Kamikaze pilots don't like being compared to suicide bombers. Gordon has no sympathy for them.

  • Joe looks at the new Japanese Cabinet.

  • They've got some odd houses and neighbours in Japan.

  • Sean looks at the massive task of reforming Japan's Postal Service (even if it doesn't interest voters much), which is actually the world's largest financial institution amongst other things. As he points out, the Government should heed the lessons of California's energy crisis and learn the difference between privatisation and deregulation.

  • The wrong people have remembered South Korea.

  • For an interesting contrary view on living in North Korea, try Part 1 and Part 2. Plus more on why North Korea's rulers have popular support of North Koreans, although perhaps it is because the populace don't know much about the wider world.

  • One Japanese export made good in America.

  • The future is here for school kids in Japan. It sounds scary until you realise that mobile phones are extremely effective personal locators as well.

  • A Japanese cartoonist came under fire for portraying the Rape of Nanjing, and eventually was forced to withdraw the cartoon.

  • South Korea has laid claim to a chunk of Chinese territory but didn't want anyone to know, so they buried it in a Parliamentary report, which a newspaper then exposed. Oops. On the same topic Tom Plate says China should waive its territorial claims in the Koguryo controversy for its own sake and that it is not yet time to lift the arms embargo..

  • Japan was hit by a massive and deadly typhoon, then an earthquake (more here) and now Japan's bullet train had its first derailment in 40 years. Also look at the scale Japan uses to measure these things.

  • Japan's to restore an 8th Century historical ruin: a flushing toilet.

  • If I were in South Korea, I'd be getting mad now: Team America won't play there. I'm so keen on this movie I might actually pay to see it rather than wait for the Shenzhen copies. It's getting rave reviews. Tony isn't impressed with Korean movie quotas, either.

  • There is an excellent discussion on the potential for China to annex a collapsing North Korea over at Marmot's.

  • There is plenty more at Robert's monthly Korea briefing at Winds of Change.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • Brad DeLong eloquently fisks a stupid article pleading for a boycott of products made by Indian labour; as Richard points out you could easily substitute China for India.

  • India can teach the US a thing or two about voting.

  • It's not strictly Asia, but Jodi has the details and thoughts on the rape trials starting on Pitcairn Island.

  • Single men, you might consider Kemukus mountain for your next holiday.

  • Brunei is imitating Hong Kong: votes that mean nothing. Macam-Macam has a no-holds-barred look at this land of his birth.

  • Is Pakistan preparing for the famed October surprise? They'd better hurry up if they are.

  • In Malaysia the fallout from the Jeff Ooi incident continues. His blog has come under investigation for a comment by "Anwar", who has now apologised. It is now getting more attention, including at Slashdot and Reporters sans Frontieres. All the fuss seems to have done is boosted Jeff's traffic. "Anwar" has been identified and is likely to be charged.

  • Piracy in the Straits of Malacca is getting worse.

  • Indonesia officially got a new President and a sore loser. Megawati's sulking. Not impressed. More importantly is what will SBY do now? Pieter wants him to tackle the economy and corruption first, not terror. Winston has a very thorough look at the task ahead and Jakartass has a poll of what the public want him to do. Agam was on the ground during the inauguration. Macam looks at SBY's cabinet.

  • Conrad has excerpts from the five part Asia Times series on the Philippines. And he has a plan.

  • Singapore's Temasek Holdings, the Government company that controls most of Singapore's major businesses, has opened its books.

  • Cambodia has a new king.

  • Burma's Prime Minister was fired for being "moderate". You've got to use scare quotes when it comes to Burma (not Myanmar).

  • Jihadis crossed the final line when they took and killed Chinese hostages in Pakistan.
  • Miscellany

  • Just like elsewhere, oil is a big factor in East Asian foreign policy. Also what Asian issues feature in the US election?

  • Unsurprisingly Asia has done poorly in the Corruption Perceptions Index. Bangladesh "won".

  • As Joel points out, only in Asia can "Nazi fashion" be ever considered a good idea.

  • Rajan asks that age old question that puzzles so many in Asia.

  • Did the USSR collapse because of Western powers or because senior officials lost faith in socialism?

  • Spirit Fingers is doing the police's job for them. Some people are taking the 'Asian tiger' thing too seriously.

  • They're good enough to die, but not good enough to be British.

  • Lost Nomad discovers why Asians are better at maths.

  • Turning the tables on Engrish comes Hanzi Smatter, a site dedicated to the misuse of Chinese characters (via John). Funny stuff in whatever language.

  • Japanese men are taking things sitting down.

  • Love often is the victim of tortured analogies. But this could be a first for cabbage. While on love, looking for a Hong Kong wife? Mr B is here to help. Otherwise you can try this way instead.


  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:12
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    October 26, 2004
    WoW

    Joseph Bosco has started a project with his journalism students at the prestigious Beijing Foreign Studies Unversity: WoW: We Observe the World. Joseph describes the project:

    "WOW: We Observe the World," will be a combination blog and online news magazine produced by the Journalism Department of Beijing Foreign Studies University. The site will not be a place for lyrical prose from wistful Chinese college students. It will be a real news entity written by young adults majoring in journalism. Many of them already have experience working in media.

    From the perspective of young Chinese adults, WOW will cover international, national and local news. Real news. It will also feature sections on LifeStyle, Sports, Books, Movies, Music and the Fine Arts. While I am the faculty supervisor for the project, student journalists will produce the content.

    I wish them every success with the endevour and it has already been added to the featured Asian blogroll. As a taste there is an interesting survey of almost 700 students at various Chinese universities and their attitudes to the American elections and on the war in Iraq. Here's hoping this portal into the minds of China's next generation of leaders goes from strength to strength.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:24
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    Judge not

    Hong Kong's judges are writing their own code of conduct, including detailing judicial behaviour outside of court:

    Among other things, it says judges "should exercise care'' if they visit clubs and other social places "run by or for members of organisations such as the police, the ICAC and Customs and Excise Department...It would be undesirable for him or her to frequent or become a member of such clubs or to be a regular user of such facilities.''

    And it offers advice on gambling and visiting karaoke bars. "Discretion should be exercised. Judges should consider how such visits are likely to be perceived ... in the light ... of the reputation of the place visited.''

    I expect a mass of resignations from the FCC, LRC, HKCC, AMC and other clubs as judges immediately remove themselves from such perverse places. Even worse, the takings at the Captain's Bar at the Mandarin are going to take a nose dive and I pity the clubs of Wan Chai.

    Thankfully there are barristers to take up the slack.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:41
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    ASSets

    Hong Kong's known for being a convention city: each week thousands come to wander through Government subsidised halls to gawk at various trade shows and sponge off friends living in Hong Kong. But it's time for HK to branch out for the usual round of toy, electronics, fashion and jewllery fairs. Somehow an ass and donkey fair seems like a good start.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:06
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    October 25, 2004
    Your taxpayer dollars at work

    The always interesting Webb-site takes a look at one of Hong Kong's many Government money tips: Cyberport. Despite the law clearly requiring the development to submit annual reports, the company managing the white elephant has not yet done so and doesn't intend to anytime soon. Hong Kong's Government has made these property projects something of a habit: look at Disneyland or the new West Kowloon project as two further examples. In return for huge dollops of Government money the same old developers get their hands on great chunks of taxpayer money with no accountability. Cyberport, for example, is a residential property project dressed up with a few (empty) office buildings and a shopping mall. It will end up working because the Government will force it to. What is staggering in Hong Kong is the Government can waste so much taxpayer money and still tax its citizens so little.

    I shudder to think what the SAR Government would do if they got their hands on ever-more dollars the handful of people who actually pay income tax in this city earn.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 18:33
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    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    This edition contains Korea's worst season, China's mines, Hooters, which US Presidential candidate is best for China, Japan's earthquake system, could China annex North Korea, pissed off Pakistanis and plenty more...

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • China's mining disaster is unfortunately nothing new. Liberalisation and reform may be the answer, although Infidel worries about nuclear power in China.

  • Sharpies, business in Wenzhou and shoes in Spain - all in one.

  • The latest form of Western cultural imperialism has breached China's defenses...and they seem happy about it. Conrad, however, has a problem with the advertising.

  • It ain't easy being a croc.

  • HK Democrats are working towards a referendum on voting in Hong Kong: Tom has the details.

  • Phil says "People's" in a country name means anything but.

  • ACB continues to look at China and the US and their competing interests.

  • Fumier has a first person look at the Chung Yeung festival. And while on dead people, everything you wanted to know about Mao's embalming.

  • China is looking to learn from one Hong Kong model: its property market.

  • Xinhua needs poopreaders proofreaders.

  • A complete set of links to the Globe and Mail's China survey, including migrant workers, the environment, spiritual vacuum, sex and drugs plus more.

  • Matthew looks at which US Presidential candidate would be better for China's economic and political relations.
  • Korea and Japan

  • There is an excellent discussion on the potential for China to annex a collapsing North Korea over at Marmot's.

  • The gold is finally decided in Olympic gymnastics.

  • Eating out in Japan is becoming an expensive business.

  • Seoul is going to stay as Korea's capital.

  • Someone needs to tell North Korean defectors that international schools aren't consulates.

  • Joel's been "researching" Koreans' love of plastic surgery.

  • Why do China and Korea dislike Japan? Matthew's keeping watch on China's anti-Japan rhetoric ban.

  • First typhoons, then earthquakes (more here) and now Japan's bullet train had its first derailment in 40 years.

  • While on Japan's earthquake, a look at the scale Japan uses to measure these things.

  • A look at Korea's economic woes.

  • Korea's entering its worst season of the year: the suicide season.

  • Unsurprisingly, North Korea has the worst "freedom of press" in the world.

  • Colin Powell's in Tokyo to discuss the restructuring of US forces in Japan.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • Jihadis crossed the final line when they took and killed Chinese hostages in Pakistan.

  • The Commonwealth has just made becoming a certified democracy much easier: coup, rewrite constitution, ban opposition, rig elections and you're done.

  • Bush makes odd bedfellows.

  • What works in Estonia may not work in the Philippines.
  • Miscellany

  • If Vietnamese food is your dish, check out Noodle Pie.

  • When you've finished here, trying going around the world by blog instead.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 14:09
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    Yuan for the money

    Asia Times takes a look at the pressure to revalue the yuan and calls it a folly. Instead the article takes an anti-US dollar line, complaining about the primacy of the US dollar in world finance and Asian central banks' willingness to support the dollar come what may. It also says that revaluing the yuan won't help solve the current trade imbalance. I've not yet had time to look through the article thoroughly, but it looks like it has kernels of truth wrapped within lashings of dogma. I'll update once I've gone through it.

    Additionally there's another article pointing out the flaws in China's economic statistics and what the most recent numbers mean, a topic I've looked at previously.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:07
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    China and war

    The Jamestown Foundation have posted an article looking at China's energy security question (via Kolya). Between China's rapidly expanding industrial base and its rapid replacement of bikes for cars its demand for energy will continue increasing quickly. So China is worried where it will get its energy from. It continues to expand its domestic power generation through increased oil exploration, greater use of nuclear and natural gas power, developing strategic reserves and energy conservation. But it will continue to become a greater consideration in China's geopolitical planning in the years to come; for example the great efforts exerted by China to capture the new Russian oil pipeline and its opposition to sanctions on Sudan. The final question is this: will China eventually go to war to secure its energy supplies?

    Likewise the SCMP reports on a conference held last week in Taiwan on China's likely modes of attack on the island. Held jointly with American think-tanks, the consensus was that China would aim to quickly force Taiwan to negotiate with Beijing under a one-China principle rather than trying to completely conquer the island. The strike would be limited in scope, only trying to eliminate Taiwan's will to fight and to prevent the US entering the conflict. It would do this by targetting the island's leadership and communication infrastructure and forcing a Taiwan negotiation without a US presence. In being quick and launching such a "decapitation" strike the PLA sees it can reduce or eliminate any chance of the US being able to respond. Taiwan's answer will be a need to hold off long enough for the US to join the fray and escalate the war. It all sounds about right.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:52
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    Sport imitates life

    The drama in Chinese soccer continues (to get up to speed, check here). The latest move is for the clubs to demand the Chinese Football Association (CFA) to let the clubs, manage, operate and own their own clubs. Seven of the clubs have asked for the championship to be suspended until various reforms are implemented. In the interim the clubs will play "friendlies" with the proceeds going to charity. The CFA is planning to respond on Tuesday.

    This saga is a small example of the changes gripping China. Suddenly the old command-and-control style represented by the CFA is being overturned by clubs with significant financial interests in appropriate outcomes. When people have something to defend and protect, they become a lot more interested in those that govern them. That is the challenge faced by both the CFA and in a much broader sense by the Communist Party itself.

    Funnily enough at the same time China is implementing in law private property rights. While these have existed in theory via the constitution, this law is the first real step to making property rights facts on the ground.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:54
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    October 22, 2004
    Enemablog

    It's time to collate the links from across the blogosphere for another week:

    * Bill's back but jobless. If you can spare some change don't waste it on a beggar, give it to Bill - the best source of trash talk in blogging today. Jim's further along the road with his second interview. And if Paul continues to outsource his blogging to me I'm going to have to start charging.

    * Dean looks at what blogging life will be like AE (after elections). Less than 2 weeks to go and the whole thing is rapidly approaching farce (via Dean), which is a shame when Americans are voting for the leader of the free world. For those interested in the issues, check out the Toast-O-Meter. Otherwise check out some of the real differences between red and blue states. And finally someone's come up with a Florida voting machine that cannot fail...unless you're older than 6.

    * Everyone's going on about the "fall" of Castro. Forget that, why not take a closer look at that t-shirt icon Che Guevera. He hates fruit and a racist in that South American way. It's the end of the Cult of Che (or try here, here, here, here, here, here or here). You listening, Long Hair?

    * Arthur's got a comprehensive and excellent speechwriting guide.

    * So true. I could add plenty more. Comrade, you need this.

    * The Red Sox may have won their series against the Yankees, but they lost the battle.

    * Martha Stewart's jail diaries are online already: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

    * Greedy Western capitalists saving African kids. The horror.

    * Mike and Tim have been having fun this week. Makes me miss being in Australia. There was the storming of the Mill Hill, inspired firstly by Tim things with the faces of silliness forgiveness and the sequel and Mike took it to a whole new level. Never have the people of the Mill Hill been so sorry. Hell, the Mill Hill was my local. I'll be back at Christmas, gents. Let's take the Bellevue next time...they do great bangers and mash.

    Finally here's some of my own efforts this week:

    * Cleaning can be such a chore. Rubbish, moving furniture, throwing out dead bodies...
    * Doing something for the kids of Hong Kong, because they're teaching the adults how to live.
    * China's "human" market.
    * The Dalai Lama peace offerings were rebuffed by China.
    * Soccer in China is a mess.
    * I went to a talk by John Zogby on the US election.

    NOW IT'S YOUR TURN: Got a post you consider your best of the past week? Link it back to here so everyone can read it too. If you send a trackback (here's how), it will appear below and let readers follow your link. Alternatively nominate someone else's in the comments or with your own post linking both to here and the nomination. This post always remains at the top of the site until Monday, giving everyone a full weekend of exposure to your brilliance.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 14:26
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    Terror fakes

    Interpol is warning that buying fake bags/clothes/watches may channel money to terrorists. Except the officials didn't name specific groups. And despite many of the fakes being manufactured in places like China, where terror groups aren't a factor. Talk about drawing a long bow. If that's the best these companies can do to protect their products from fakes then they should just give up.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:51
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    Run for the hills

    The WWF (no, not the wrestlers) have released their annual scare report on the state of the world's environment. The inevitable conclusion? The world is using its resources too quickly and it is all unsustainable. You can even measure your personal "ecological footprint" - mine came in at 14.3 global hectares and I got the admonishment that "If everyone lived like you, we would need 7.9 planets". I think Mars is free.

    These reports are great for the press: they allow every local paper to tell their readers how greedy Western imperialists like themselves are surely ruining the planet. For example here is Hong Kong's and here is Australia's.

    The problem? It's baloney. Firstly of course those us living in developed economies consume more than the average. The millions of Africans and Asians living in poverty use less than the average; that's what makes such averages meaningless. In fact a far more useful comparison would be to look at what environmental impact each country has compared to its per capita GDP. In other words, what kind of return on does each country get from its use of its environmental resources? Secondly aims such as environmental protection, clean air, lower energy consumption and the like are laudable and worthy causes. But if you ask someone whether they are prepared to sacrifice their standard of living to improve these, you will get some very mixed answers. There are costs to protecting the environment just as there are benefits, and these need to be weighed against each other. Some improvements are not worth the money, just like any other investment. Thirdly is the WWF proposing that the world stop trying to alleviate poverty through economic growth? China's ecological footprint is rapidly expanding, but at the same time its population is experiencing a rapid rise in living standards. Fourthly as long ago as Thomas Malthus there have been scares that the world will "run out of resources" based on the fallacy that the supply of resources stays constant while demand constantly rises. The supply of resources reacts to demand as shown through price signals. At the moment, for example, the rapid rise in the oil price will entice greater production and exploration for the stuff. Additionally technology and science are constantly advancing our ability to make the most of our natural resources. Agricultural yields have improved, our ability to extract minerals have improved. Progress brings its own rewards.

    Some previous postings on this topic are here on global warming and here on why to be sceptical of green claims.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:22
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    China economic figures

    Reuters is reporting numbers for China's economy for January to September compared to the same period last year:

    GDP up 9.5%
    Industrial output up 17%
    Retail Sales up 13% (inflation adjusted up 9.7%)
    Fixed-asset investment up 27.7%
    CPI up 5.2%

    Clearly the economy is still growing too fast, despite China's best efforts to slow it down.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:19
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    October 21, 2004
    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    This edition contains Afghan's President at 30, questions over control North Korea if it collapses, China's lack of progress in fighting poverty, is OBL in China and plenty on Indonesia's new President, just for starters...

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Breaking Hong Kong news: 1997 never happened.

  • ESWN wants the real culprits behind the Taiwan bus crash that killed 5 Hong Kong tourists: the tour operator.

  • China takes their lion statues seriously. Very seriously.

  • One night in Hong Kong: The Eagles, thirsty gweilos and one running dog. Funny stuff.

  • John comments on a repulsive TV ad on Chinese TV for an abortion clinic. On the other hand Jeremy has ads we'd like to see.

  • Come get exploited by evil Western movie producers and star in a film to boot.

  • The Lama offered, and China said no.

  • Being a journo in China is easy.
  • Chinese football is in dire straits.

  • One Chinese newspaper says China has no reason to be proud in its war on poverty.

  • The CIA have released a set of documents analysing China's leadership and the CCP back in the days of Mao. They're generating a lot of interest.

  • Matthew comprehensively looks at China's foreign policy.

  • China's financial regulator says half of the country's brokerages are risky or very risky.

  • Is Osama bin Laden hiding in China?
  • Korea and Japan

  • If North Korea fell apart, who would take it over? South Korea or China? More on this question at NKZone and from Infidel.

  • Duophony is not impressed by the North Korean Human Rights Act. And some are saying Kerry would be harder on North Korea than Bush.

  • Spielberg wanted a Korean actress to play a Japanese geisha. She declined, and Jodi and others are questioning her decision.

  • It's OK to spy for North Korea now. Which is just as well, because Marmot has pics of the very latest in North Korean military technology. Juicy stuff.

  • South Korea's first astronauts are going to be a housewife and a missionary. Please start jokes on positions now.

  • Japan's been hit by a massive and deadly typhoon.

  • Japan's to restore an 8th Century historical ruin: a flushing toilet.

  • If I were in South Korea, I'd be getting mad now: Team America won't play there. I'm so keen on this movie I might actually pay to see it rather than wait for the Shenzhen copies. It's getting rave reviews. Tony isn't impressed with Korean movie quotas, either.

  • Lee always comes up with the crazy stuff that makes you shake your head about the Japanese. The latest is the "SushiDisk".
  • SE and Other Asia

  • Megawati's sulking. Not impressed. More importantly is what will SBY do now? Pieter wants him to tackle the economy and corruption first, not terror. Winston has a very thorough look at the task ahead and Jakartass has a poll of what the public want him to do. Agam was on the ground during the inauguration. Macam looks at SBY's cabinet.

  • Burma's Prime Minister was fired for being "moderate". You've got to use scare quotes when it comes to Burma (not Myanmar).

  • India's most wanted has been killed: take a squiz at the reactions.

  • Afghanistan's likely President Hamid Karzai, at age 30.

  • Hicky looks at Singapore's twisted application of the death penalty.
  • Miscellany

  • Just like elsewhere, oil is a big factor in East Asian foreign policy. Also what Asian issues feature in the US election?

  • Unsurprisingly Asia has done poorly in the Corruption Perceptions Index. Bangladesh "won".

  • Looking for a Hong Kong wife? Mr B is here to help. Otherwise you can try this way instead.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:37
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    Turning evil to do good

    My spam is getting worse and worse. The latest are "free offers" - click this for a free X-Box/Dell/Car, just so long as you play some online poker.

    So it's nice to see that bots are now being used to fight back. Computers playing computers at poker: just when Ben Affleck finds his calling, computers supercede him. That guy just can't catch a break.

    Elsewhere, the words doggy and style spring to mind (seperately, of course).

    And one last one: funny stuff.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:26
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    Good deeds

    Way back in February my brother Paul guest-blogged here for a couple of weeks. One of his posts was If I was a rich man...., where he recounted the good fortune he had in "winning" millions in the Spanish lottery...despite not even buying a ticket to enter.

    Then yesterday Romana posted this comment:

    My father received one today, October 20, 2004. Thanks God, he does not speek English, he would have sent all his bank account information to that "Spanish company".I told him it's a fraud but he wouldn't listen, until we found this page.Thank you for putting this on the Internet!
    Thanks to the power of Google and blogs, a man's life savings have been kept out the clutches of those diabolical scammers. Paul's tempted to ask for a reward: perhaps a real ticket in the Spanish lottery? And people say blogs have no power.

    Simon World: defeating scammers since 2003.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:24
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    The pride of the French Air Force

    France, as part of its China charm offensive, have sent some of their air force to Hong Kong. They put on a display yesterday of their very best, the pride of one of the world's best air forces. Unfortunately the gyroscope wasn't working properly*...

    upsidedown.jpg

    * Yes it's a cheap shot at the French; no it's not justified. Sue me. The French have replaced the Irish as European laughing stock. Deal with it. Oh, and some of my best friends are French.



    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:55
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    Snowballing

    It all started with a lady crossing the road in Wanzhou, Chongqing and being hit with a pole carried by a delivery man. When the pole carrier refused to apologise, the lady slapped him. Then her husband joined in and that's when things got really bad. The husband pretended he was a Government official, seized the pole and beat the carrier. That turned into a brawl, which drew a crowd. The cops came and carted the 3 away. But the crowd wouldn't budge, accusing the police of bullying and abusing their powers. By the night the crowd had grown to 20,000, police were attacked and cars torched. The leadership order a clampdown, arrests were made and the crowd dispersed.

    It was an interesting explosion in anger by the populace against the police and by extension the ruling party. What's even more interesting is that news got out about the riot. The incident was reported in the Chinese press, but with the number of rioters placed at "a few hundred" and with the incident downplayed. So much so that I cannot find a link to it on Xinhua's or People Daily's sites (admittedly they basically are the same thing). But Reuters and the SCMP both have the story. A slip in the net?

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:51
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    No Regrets

    Harbour Fest has been comprehensively covered previously in these pages: here, here and here for starters. Hong Kong's public service may be world class (at least judging by what they are paid) but their investigative skills are either extremely thorough or those of a snail. Nevertheless finally Mike Rowse, the public servant who signed the cheques for Harbour Fest, is facing "disciplinary action". This is a scant 4 months after the Public Accounts Committee recommended such action be taken. In the best tradition of public service "inquiries", however, Mr. Rowse is likely to get nothing worse than a slap on the wrist:


    Two civil servants of higher rank than Rowse have been appointed in an inquiry committee, which may subject him to a hearing. A civil servant found guilty of misconduct faces penalties ranging from a reprimand to sacking. But it is believed that Rowse will keep his job.
    His bosses will sit in judgement on him, even though if they reprimand him (or worse, fire him) they implicitly condemn their peers as well.

    While on things Hong Kong, it turns out the newly re-elected legislator Chim Pui-chung is in trouble with the Securities and Futres Commission for breaching the law. It appears Mr. Chim and his son control 95% of the stock of a publicly listed company called Kanstar, breaching the 75% limit set by the Ordinance. The SFC warned "Shareholders and the public are advised to exercise extreme caution when dealing in the shares [of Kanstar].'' Mr. Chim previously spent one year in jail for forgery.

    Mr. Chim represents the financial services sector in the LegCo.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:26
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    October 20, 2004
    John Zogby on the US Election

    Last night John Zogby of the eponymous polling firm gave a talk in Hong Kong on the state of the current election. His speech covered a wide number of topics and thoughts on the election. Zogby himself is a Democrat but takes pains to eliminate bias from his surveys. He also had a few words about his polling rivals, especially Gallup.

    Topics covered:

  • The 4 million Christian Conservatives.
  • "The Armageddon Election"
  • Differences between red and blue states and the key predictor of voting intention (it's not what you think)
  • The missing centre of American politics
  • Mistakes in the Kerry and Bush campaigns
  • The Nader impact
  • The impact of blogs and the internet on elections and politics.

    Plus plenty more. All below the fold...

    Linked to Show trial, OTB

    Update: Welcome to the many new readers to this site. Please have a look around at the rest of the blog, which concerntrates mostly on Asian and especially China related news and views. I also have a twice weekly Asian blogging roundup, the most recent edition of which can be found here and previous editions here.

    NOTE: these are the views of John Zogby, with my occasional $0.02 thrown in. For the most part they are in the order he spoke, with some cutting and pasting where similar topics were discussed.

    Undecideds
    * The undecided vote is down to about 6% of voters. If the undecideds vote, they'll vote for Kerry. But the question is if they vote. This number has been unchanged since March 2004. In past elections in March the number of undecideds is around 20-25%.
    * He is actively tracking the undecideds in focus groups in key states such as Florida. He takes care to maintain the same proportion of political affiliations in these groups to keep consistency.
    * Both candidates get 47% each just for showing up. The election is bigger than the two personalities involved. The 5 or 6% of undecideds are a very fluid group.
    * Those that move from (say) the Kerry camp to undecided do NOT move to Bush. Zogby was very clear that once they move out of a camp, a voter then tosses up between not voting or voting for "their" candidate. Very few are prepared to jump across the gap to the other candidate.
    * Bush cannot do anything to persuade these undecideds. All he can do is keep challenging Kerry and raising enough questions about him that it keeps the undecideds at home. He's done a good job of this. He's made it hard for people to support Kerry because the US cannot pull out of Iraq so there's little Kerry can do; it's unlikely multilateral support will stream in for Iraq regardless; and there's little Kerry can do to fund his education and health plans given the big deficits, even with his tax hike on the wealthy.
    * A key question on the minds of undecideds is "Can Kerry deliver his promises?"

    Tactics
    * He cannot understand why the Democrats have pulled out of Arizona, Colorado and Missouri, among others. His polling is showing those states as close enough to at least force the Republicans onto the back foot. He also thinks the Democrats lost momentum in the South after appointing John Edwards, especially in potentially winnable Virginia and North Carolina.
    * The Presidential debates shored up Kerry's base, dragging back some Democrat voters whom may not otherwise have voted at all. That was the only impact of the debates.

    The Christian Conservative Myth
    * The 4 million Christian Conservatives (CCs) that Karl Rove obsesses about are a myth. He has done extensive polling and found no evidence that there were large numbers of CCs who chose to stay at home in 2000. As Zogby put it, why would these people choose not to vote knowing that could land Al Gore in the White House? His polling shows these are highly motivated voters.

    Red vs. Blue
    * This election is a repeat of 2000 in many ways, and Florida and Ohio are the key states this time.
    * The "Armageddon Election": the US has 2 equal sized warring factions divided ideologically, demographically and culturally. Cicero at Winds of Change has an interesting post on the same lines.
    * Poll done back in December 2003:
    - Percentage whom worship at least once a week: Red 54%, Blue 32%
    - Percentage orientated to God: Red 75%, Blue 51%
    - Red define God in moral absolutes; Blue in moral relativity
    - Percentage owning guns: Red 58%, Blue 38%
    * The key difference: married vs. singles whom have never married. On every poll this is the key predictor of voting intention, even when broken down by sex and age.

    The Missing Centre
    * In the past the candidates tend to move to the centre in the last few weeks of the campaign and sound similar as they fight over the middle ground. This time each candidate is talking to their bases as if the centre doesn't exist - because it doesn't.
    * Why is the centre missing? Bush won in 2000 with 48% of the popular vote but rather than reaching for the centre, he started out from the right (Zogby though this was a squandered opportunity). The 4 million Christian Conservative "myth" of Karl Rove meant Bush wanted to pander to them to shore his support up and push his numbers up over 50% and hold them there for 4 years, rather than reach across to conservative Al Gore voters. This explains why Bush quickly rescinded Clinton's environmental orders and decision on Government money for family planning groups that support abortion - he was chasing the CCs. On September 1, 2001 Bush was at 49%.
    * The "rubber ball" analogy: Bush had three poll bounces since 2001, but each one has been shallower and shorter than the next.
    * Post 9/11 he went to 85% and Bush started by responding. Zogby notes the Sept 20th speech to Congress and the incident when Bush was talking to a group of iron workers, police and firefighters at Ground Zero (when some called out "We can't hear you", Bush responded "I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear from of all us soon," as two key attempts to connect with the entire population.
    * However with 10 days of 9/11 Zogby did a poll, asking do you support the War on Terror (WoT)? 91% said yes. When asked would the support the WoT if it lasted one year, it went down to 77%; for 2 years, down to 67% and more than 2 years 55%. Zogby took this to mean the US still suffered from a post-Vietnam syndrome of wanting wars won quickly and troops out of harms way as quickly as possible.
    * Fast forward to March 2003, just prior to the bombing of Baghdad. Bush's approval is at 53%. Post bombing bounces to 67% but the bounce didn't last long: by mid-May he was back to 50% and it didn't budge. Over the (northern) Summer of 2003 the opposition to the war on Iraq turned angry, and that is the first time that talk of the "stolen" 2000 election emerged.
    * The final bounce. In December 2003, when Sadaam was captured, Bush went to 56% but within 2 weeks was back to 50% again.

    The Democrats
    * Before the primaries started 66 - 73% of registered Democrats in key states thought they couldn't beat Bush. When asked, they stated in 2:1 ratio they wanted someone they believed in rather than someone who could beat Bush. This explains the rise of Howard Dean. By December Dean was up 7% in Iowa, 36% in New Hampshire and a couple of points in South Carolina. Dean's problem was the primaries happened too late. Zogby cannot explain why but he didn't poll between Christmas and New Year. When polling restarted in January 2004 suddenly things shifted. The new polls had 85% of Democrats thought a Democrat could beat Bush and now in 3:1 ratio they wanted someone who could win.
    * John Kerry was the last man standing in Iowa, despite until then running a woeful (my notes say shit, but I don't think Zogby used that word) campaign. There had been too much "nuance" and explanations that would fit trains, not bumper stickers. Zogby said "Presidential candidates need bumper stickers, not trains." Suddenly in January 2004 his message was simplified to three points: I can win, I'm a veteran and I'm experienced. He gained a point a day while Gephardt and Dean lost a point a day each and so once Kerry won Iowa the momentum was unstoppable. On Jan 10th Kerry was at 10% in Iowa; once his numbers crossed Dean's then Kerry's numbers took off and didn't look back.
    * A key quote from a Kerry staffer: "John always knows when his homework is due." The Presidential debate was another example of this, getting the message right at the right time (although hopefully not too late).

    Key States
    * Penn., Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Florida. Each one is very close. His latest numbers are showing 46 Kerry 45 Bush but no clues on the undecideds still.
    * The potential surprise states are Bush in Iowa and Wisconsin and Kerry in Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.

    Money
    * It is unusual but at this stage of the race Kerry has more money than Bush to spend.
    * Kerry's fundraising efforts were greatly assisted by a motivated base and by good use of the internet, learning from Howard Dean.

    The Running
    * The race is Kerry's to lose, barring unforeseen events. If he loses, it is only his fault.
    * Why? Because Bush's numbers have not gone above 48%. Three other key polling indicators are all terrible for Bush amongst undecideds:
    - Presidential job performance: 35% positive versus 60% negative
    - Is the country headed in the right direction? net negative
    - Does the President deserve re-election? 15% yes versus 40% no.
    These numbers have always been net negative for Bush amongst undecideds. The last 3 Presidents with those numbers were Carter, Ford and Bush snr. None won.
    * Another reason: undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Zogby sees them going like in Reagan in 1980, so that the margin is 2% but it is the same in each key state and it is in favour of Kerry, thus the Electoral Vote ends in a decisive victory.
    * A higher turnout favours Kerry. 2000 election had 105 million voters. Anything over 107 million this time and Kerry will win.
    * The youth vote: always heavily Democrat, this time the youth vote are unusually motivated and may turn out in bigger numbers than expected, tipping the race to Kerry.
    * If the focus of the final two weeks is the War on Terror ---> Bush wins
    If the focus of the final two weeks is Iraq and/or domestic issues ---> Kerry wins.
    * If the result is like in 2000 there will be masses and months of litigation. Neither side will back down and it will be complete chaos, far worse than 2000.

    Nader
    * Nader is a spent force and irrelevant to the campaign. He does not take votes from Kerry.
    * Voters for Nader would otherwise have not voted at all, so no loss to either side.

    The mobile phone question
    * What is the impact of the increased use of mobile phones on the accuracy of polling?
    * 6% of all adults and 15% of under 30s have only mobiles, with no land line phone. Does this introduce a bias in polling?
    * Zogby has tested this and seen no reason to expect these mobile-only adults will be any different (i.e. there is no anti-liberal bias).
    * On a slightly different question, young voters are always under-represented in polling and Zogby weights to increase their representation. He is using higher weights this time compared to 2000 due to increased activism.

    Differences between polls
    * While being diplomatic, Zogby basically said Gallup's numbers are junk. They use different methodologies but Gallup's variations from poll to poll are too big to be creditable. In Zogby's polling Kerry and Bush both bounce between 44 an 48, and haven't deviated from that range.
    * Zogby maintains the same proportions of party affiliations in each poll as he doesn't think that number changes much, which cuts the variability down.
    * He was emphatic there is no bias in his or any other polling organisation he knows. To have bias would be the death of any polling firm.

    Asia in the election
    * There are three Asian issues in this election: North Korea, the Chinese currency, Taiwan. [Ed. - there's also a fourth, outsourcing, but that was overlooked despite it perhaps being the most prominent issue of the four.]
    * Of the three, only North Korea is figuring in people's minds. 37% say North Korea is the US's number 1 military threat.
    * There is an ironic difference on this issue: it is the only one where Kerry is a unilateralist whereas Bush prefers a multilateral approach.

    Internet, blogs and the election
    [Ed. - I'll note that I asked Zogby about the impact of the internet and blogs on the election, so this was a prompted answer rather than part of his speech.]
    * The impact of the internet has been huge. In 1996 about 4% of voters got most of their political information from the net. In 2000 it was 31%. For 2004 it will be in excess of 50%.
    * The second key impact has been in fundraising. Firstly Howard Dean, then John Kerry have used the internet to balance out and neutralise the fundraising power of Bush and the Republicans. Ironically Al Gore, the "father" of the net, didn't capture this avenue in 2000.
    * Blogs: Zogby saw these as important, with each having its own constituency. However they are unlikely to change minds; instead "they serve to stoke the fires of anger." In other words, blogs are preaching to the converted.
    * Zogby reads Real Clear Politics daily but I didn't get a chance to find out if he follows any others.

    Zogby: "Polling is 80% science and 20% art."

    And finally:

    Zogby: "The race is Kerry's to lose" (although others see it the other way around).

    My thoughts: Zogby has an obvious personal bias to Democrats but I take him at face value when he says his research is impartial. His speculation that the race is Kerry's to lose didn't convince me, but nor do I buy that it is Bush's to lose either. I think the struggle for both candidates now is to go and win the race. Otherwise his thoughts on the missing centre certainly make sense and gel with my impressions of American politics (admittedly from afar). The small amount of undecideds are the key battleground, but I'm not sure they will break for Kerry in the numbers Zogby expects, especially given the reluctance of many to change Presidents during times of war. What is clear is unless the margin is reasonable, which is unlikely, there's going to be one hell of a mess.



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:07
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    China Soccer Saga

    Chinese soccer is a mess. There's the difficult task of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup against Hong Kong with the dirty "collusion" allegations still floating around; but even more interesting is the implosion of China's top soccer league following a protest by one of the major clubs, Beijing Hyundai.

    Now that saga has reached a tentative conclusion. Firstly the club played their League match on the weekend despite previous threats to withdraw. The official line is the club has made peace with the CFA now that the referee at the centre of the storm has been suspended for the rest of the season and a session adressing the future of the CFA is to be held. Additionally the CFA has been forced to open its books to scrutiny by the Premier League clubs after allegations of corruption and botched commercial deals. More pressure is emerging in China, for example this opinion piece in the China Daily or this from Xinhua, on the CFA.

    What is most interesting in this whole debacle is the pressure of free markets is having on an official body. In times past the CFA would never have come under such pressure for corruption and incompetence but with so much money now at stake, the clubs involved have started to defend their rights and push for greater disclosure and a more open CFA. It is a clear example where incompetence and corruption was having such an impact that the people involve announced they weren't going to take it any more, and staretd to fight back.

    Where soccer leads, could the rest of China one day follow?

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:07
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    Thanks but no thanks

    Yesterday I printed excerpts from Time's interview with the Dalai Lama, where he reiterated his pragmatic approach to Tibet and China. China's response? They completed rejected his overtures.

    China rejects Dalai Lama's statement The Chinese Foreign Ministry accused him of being insincere, saying ‘‘We believe the Dalai Lama should genuinely abandon his position of advocating Tibet independence and make public statement acknowledging that Tibet and Taiwan are inseparable parts of China. He should also stop all his splittist activities abroad. Only this way, we can make further contact or initiate discussion with him."

    While I understand the domestic pressures in Chinese politics that make such statements necessary, if China continues to insist on such dogmatic statements both over Tibet and in the Taiwan dispute, then neither will be solved any time soon. Should China start showing some degree of flexibility, as is the norm in diplomacy, there are great gains to be had. In the past week both Taiwan and Tibet are reaching for dialogue with China. China's refusals to engage are to its own detriment.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:09
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    October 19, 2004
    US Presidential Election News Flash

    John Kerry served in Vietnam. Who knew?

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 18:14
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    John Martinkus and Google

    The Australian journalist kidnapped and then released by Iraqi terrorists has Google to thank for his release. The company who's motto is "do no evil" will be pleased to know that the Iraqi kidnappers Googled the journalist's name, realised he wasn't an American "informer" and released him.

    Mr. Martinkus needs to buy some Google shares and a lottery ticket.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:12
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    Buy property, sell oil

    Morgan Stanley is saying Hong Kong's strong property market will not last due to pressue on the region's wages and population growth, especially from Guandong. Which might be true in the long run, but as the saying goes, in the long run we're all dead. The economist has overlooked just a couple of important factors, namely supply and demand. Supply is tight at the moment because the Government restricted sales in the post-1997 property crash. Property supply takes time to come online, because building blocks takes years. Only now is the Government starting to release land parcels for redevelopment again. Against that Hong Kong's economy is recovering strongly from the slump due to SARS. Hong Kong property has large amounts of untapped demand thanks to ample liquidity courtesy of the US's easy monetary conditions.

    Guandong will exert only limited pressure on Hong Kong in the years ahead. Even as China's richest mainland city, Guandong has only a fraction of Hong Kong's wealth, productivity, capital and resources. If Hong Kong was still an economy reliant on cheap labour, I'd be worried about Guandong and China. However Hong Kong isn't. It is a port, a logistics centre, a legal and financial centre, a first world city with a first world legal system. There is no city in China, not even Shanghai, that is close to challenging Hong Kong's status or economy at this stage. Like all markets, Hong Kong's property market will continue to move according to the only forces that really matter: supply and demand. Everything else is irrelevant.

    At the same time I'm going to make a bold prediction. With the SCMP running an oil price scare headline on the weekend trumpetting the potential for US$60/barrel oil, I am pleased to say I have seen no better sign that the bull run in oil is almost over.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:04
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    One Nation under God

    The upcoming Hong Kong vs China World Cup soccer qualifier is attracting a lot of interest. Phil notes another potential form of collusion for the AFC to worry about.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:19
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    Tibetan reality

    Time has an interview with the Dalia Lama. He is rapidly adapting to current realities in Tibet and moderating his views in a pragmatic way. How this leaves those in the "Free Tibet" movement remains to be seen. Some key parts of the interview:

    TIME: You've faced some criticism for giving up Tibet's fight for independence.

    Dalai Lama: Some Tibetans now accuse me of selling out their right to independence. Even my eldest brother is for complete independence and he always accuses me [of this]. But my approach is actually in our own interest. Tibet is backward, it's a big land, quite rich in natural resources, but we completely lack the technology or expertise [to exploit them]. So if we remain within China, we might get a greater benefit, provided it respects our culture and beautiful environment and gives us some kind of guarantee. For us [it would mean] more modernization.

    ...

    TIME: was the international Free Tibet movement a fad, like saving the whales?

    Dalai Lama: I don't think so. I think interest worldwide in Tibet and support groups are active still. Sometimes concerts happen, sometimes they don't. Another factor may be Afghanistan and Iraq; they make Tibet a secondary issue.

    TIME: if international interest and pressure are not maintained, does China win?

    Dalai Lama: China is already in a win-win situation in any case. It already controls Tibet...We're not suggesting separation, [but] that Tibet becomes more prosperous within China—and that it is also in the interests of the people of China to preserve our cultural heritage. Only if you seek independence or separation is it a question of win or lose.

    The question unasked: will common sense survive the Dalai Lama's death? China should seize this opportunity to quickly achieve some kind of compromise that it can live with. If it is endorsed by the current Dalai Lama it will take much of the sting out of international criticism of China's position in Tibet, regardless of whether it is justified or not.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 14:31
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    Opening a crack

    You're not going to read about this in any of the mainland media outlets, but a Chinese court has just cleared China Reform magazine of libel. The court in Guangzhou ruled against a property developer that had been suing for libel over an article saying the company had been stripped of its assets, posted losses and laid off workers after several changes of ownership. Normally in China libel suits are used to bully media outlets.

    This time, however, the court saw things differently. They ruled that journalists have immunity if reports are backed by "reasonable and believable" sources. China's constitution, in Article 35, says citizens of the People's Republic of China enjoy freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of procession and of demonstration. Obviously that's not always the case. But this case could represent the start of something big. Then again, it might not. No doubt the judgement will be appealed. But it's a start.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:13
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    Learning from the young

    Welfare is a big issue in Hong Kong, with further cuts proposed to the welfare budget after pensions were cut by over 5% last month. This is despite record land prices, a budget that is rapidly approaching surplus again thanks to a booming economy and a misguided view of basing welfare payments on the past deflation rather than the approaching inflation.

    But the poor of Hong Kong needn't despair. A 10 year old has shown them the way. From the SCMP:

    A 10-year-old schoolboy spent $10 to buy a rice box, got free water from a McDonald's restaurant and slept rough in a park each day after running away from his Tuen Mun home nine days ago.
    Primary Six student Pang Kap-lun, who wore a vest and shorts when he left home with about $100, also bought himself a $10 shirt to keep warm during the chilly nights, according to his father.
    If you assume an average month has 30 days, then pensions need only pay HK$333 for Hong Kong's poor to live comforatbly. It's nice to see the youth of this city taking a lead on such a difficult problem.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:01
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    October 18, 2004
    The "Human" Market

    Dan Washburn's travel diary of his journey through China is rivetting for what it reveals about the country and its people, not to mention being exceedingly well-written. His latest addition about Chengdu's "human market" and Dan's brush with the law is an absolute must read. A taste:

    If you've ever been to China, you have likely been to an open market before. And you've likely seen the rows and rows of stalls selling fruits, vegetables and about 1,001 kinds of animals and their respective parts (all of them). The stalls are always overflowing with produce. Well, in your mind, substitute the produce with people.
    Go read it all.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 18:24
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    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    This edition contains Asian "tigers", an unreported incident in Beijing, teaching China about Michael Moore, map games, the "Anwar" thing and plenty more.

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Blood, oil, money, the UN...and it's not Iraq.

  • Hong Kong's fun parks, public subsidies and toxic waste.

  • See Gweilos in their natural habitat.

  • ESWN has the story of a suicide bomber in Sichuan.

  • China: where the name game's @

  • ACB has an interesting look at student suicide in China. Joe looks at suicide in Japan as well.

  • Keep watching the sky.

  • China's brainwashing gulag for Falun Gong members.

  • Tibet's government in exile is p!ssed off...because of a beauty contest.

  • Kevin (when are you going to add me to that blogroll?) pointed me to this little known incident in Beijing recently, with international implications. Read it...very funny.

  • To get a credit card in China don't worry about your financial history.

  • All is not well in Chinese football.

  • After my own guide on HK taxis, Batgung helpfully provides a guide to mini-busses.

  • Nathan says "Communist" China is outdoing America.

  • Infidel has thoughts on battling China's internet firewall and points to another posting on the subject. Both he and Andres have a request for all bloggers (mine's now set at 999 words, which is the maximum MT allows).

  • Beijing is sending peacekeepers to Haiti, in America's backyard. The world's changed.

  • Educating Chinese about Michael Moore, one person at a time.

  • China and Russia sorted out where their border is, but don't want people to know.
  • Korea and Japan

  • A critical look at both candidates' comments on Korea in the US Presidential election.

  • Marmot keeps track of Korea's favourite game: map-changing. And China's getting in on the act too, this time with Japan.

  • In Japan, reading magazines in stores can be deadly.

  • ,li>South Korea has given up catching North Korean spies.
  • If North Korea is such a paradise, why are groups of people scaling barbed wire to seek asylum? Rebecca wants to know what's happened to the unlucky group that were turned over to the Chinese by the Shanghai American School.

  • Japan celebrates the horse that can't.

  • Japan's on the UN Security Council for 2 years, but looking to make it longer.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • The "Anwar" from the infamous Jeff Ooi blog comment incident in Malaysia, has been identified and is likely to be charged.
  • Jodi looks at the issues facing Singapore as it modernises at the cost of its history.

  • Cambodia has a new king.

  • What Ramadan in Indonesia really means.
  • Macam-macam notes the challenges of the festival in non-Muslim countries. Niraj notes capitalism reaching its claws into this holy month.
  • Have a look at what the Indian blogosphere is saying. And look at the two approaches by Korean and Japanese firms in India.

  • Rezwan has a look at the complex relationship between Bangladesh and India.
  • Miscellany

  • Hello Kitty is being exploited for charity. Where will it end?

  • Some people are taking the 'Asian tiger' thing too seriously.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:38
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    Just don't tell anyone

    China and Russia have solved their border dispute after President Putin's visit last week. The Oz talks about the results on the ground and how the visit was a complete victory for Russia with nothing in it for China. Russia gets China's backing for WTO entry, solves the border dispute and more and all China gets is a likely no to a crucial oil pipeline.

    The resolution of the border dispute is the result is being downplayed by both countries, despite it resolving a 40 year issue over which the two countries nearly went to war in 1969. There have been press releases but the details of the key dispute, over 3 islands (two on the Ussuri River in Heiloongjiang Province, the other on the Ergan River in Inner Mongolia), have been downplayed. The sovereignty will pass to China under the doctrine of thalweg but with "joint use" for the islands, allowing the current Russia residents to remain on the islands. The agreement is being downplayed to prevent nationalists on both sides of the border from opposing the deal.

    That's real estate for you. Even when you get a good deal you can't tell anyone about it.

    UPDATE: Duophony has more.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:37
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    New SAR initiative

    I've got access to a soon-to-be-released press release from Associated Press:

    AP - (October 18th, Hong Kong) - A survey by the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department, as reported in today's South China Morning Post, has found that only 45 per cent of school students had ever seen fireflies, 41 per cent had stepped on grass in their bare feet, 40 per cent had heard the breeze in a bamboo forest, 36 per cent had hugged a tree, 29 per cent had gone camping and 18 per cent had seen the spikes of a porcupine.

    In response to this Sarah Liao, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works, has announced a new Government program to "give Hong Kong's children the feeling of nature without them having to leave their own homes." Under the program the Government will start sending either a one foot square patch of grass, a piece of bamboo with electric fan, a plastic Christmas tree with hugging instructions, a tent or the spikes of a porcupine. Should the program prove successful it will be expanded to include leeches, mosquitos, various animals' excreta and stagnant water with a choice of fungal infestations. The program is expected to cost HK$19 million in the first year, to be funded by cutting school excursions to Country Parks.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:36
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    Sporting

    The ruckus over the November 17th Hong Kong vs China World Cup (soccer) qualifier continues. The Asian Football Confederation has warned against collusion, to which the HK Federation has responded angrily. What they have actually done is turned an interesting match into an absolute must-see. It will be a ratings bonanza. Hats off to some brilliant marketing.

    In other football news, Beijing Hyundai have backed off their threats to quit the Chinese soccer league. Hit with a fine and deduction of three League points for pulling out of a game, on Friday the club had appeared to back away from its threats. However once the punishment was announced, the club again threatened to withdraw from its upcoming game unless the punishment was revoked. The club is now being supported by Dalian Shide, another top flight Chinese club. What's even more bizarre is the referee at the original match was suspended for 8 matches by the Chinese Football Federation for the making the wrong decision that has resulted in all this chaos. In the end Beijing Hyundai played on Sautrday and won 2-0 against Qingdao but the club is still appealing the punishment.

    Football is quickly becoming a fascinating game in China for all the wrong reasons.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:27
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    Diplomacy

    Someone should point out to Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian that the ferrying of messages is the job of the State Department, not Hewlett-Packard.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:11
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    Productivity

    Never again should anyone doubt the ability of mainland Chinese labour to get the job done, no matter what. From the SCMP:

    Police and welfare groups expressed alarm yesterday over the death of a man whose body lay undiscovered for up to five months in his New Territories home.
    The death of Au Yeung Wan-shing, 74, was only discovered when his remains were thrown out with the rubbish by a labourer hired to clean out his apparently empty two-room home in Sha Kok Mei so a new tenant could move in...Au Yeung's death was only discovered when the landlord, a distant relative, found the home seemingly abandoned last week and hired a mainland labourer to clear it out for a new tenant.

    The labourer, who police are trying to trace, threw the home's entire contents, including the body, down a wooded bank outside.

    Pesky dead bodies can making cleaning such a chore.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:07
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    October 15, 2004
    Enemablog

    Time to give you the links that have been lingering in the inbox for this week, and fellow bloggers please check the note at the bottom:

    *She's one of the best blogging writers (bliters?) around. Read Dawn's story about Michael: Part 1 and Part 2. She also has the best "100 things about me" you'll ever read.

    * Rusty gets the "best of the week" award with his instalanche vs insta-lunch.

    * For all those on the dating scene, Spirit Fingers has the must haves.

    * Some people will do anything to get hits.

    * The link-fest seems to becoming ubiquitous. The traffic-jam, the show trial, the (massive) debate round-up or Allah-fest, the breakfast, my own humble efforts, the 10 spot. Where would we be without trackbacks?

    * Space sandwiches (via Yobbo)

    * Check out the New Blog Showcase: there's some great new blogs out there.

    * First phones, now your hard drive. Google's motto may be "do no evil", but Michele suspects a trap. Trust no one.

    * Finally here's my highlights from this blog this week:
    # The Australian election results, response and reactions.
    # The Hong Kong file: Hong Kongers as stupid as Albanians; a strange judgement from HK's Court of Appeal; and it's time to start thinking about 2047.
    # Science: one on the economics of Chinese education; the other on mathematicians fighting the war on terror. While on the WoT, there were the Chinese hostages in Pakistan: the Gitmo connection and the raid.
    # Sports: Hong Kong has a chance to stick it to China.
    # Media and blogging: HK blogger Hemlock scoops the mainstream press; and professional blogging: the risks and rewards.

    ANNOUNCEMENT: Got a post you consider your best of the past week? Link it back to here so everyone can read it too. If you send a trackback (here's how), it will appear below and let readers follow your link. This post always remains at the top of the site until Monday, giving everyone a full weekend of exposure to your brilliance.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:39
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    The Italian Job

    Italian blogger Enzo has several interesting links today*. The first two deal with Jacques Chirac's visit to China. In the IHT is an opinion piece worth reading in full, but I'll reproduce the conclusion here:

    Was Chirac's eagerness to sell $4 billion worth of French products to China so great that he forgot that France's own revolution, about which Zhou Enlai was so cautious, called above all else for liberty?
    That reminds me of this. Perhaps I should write for the IHT too? Next article is from Liberation, which also isn't impressed**.

    Finally a look at China's crackdown on internet p0rn, questioning if p0rn is the real target (an elusive one at that). The crackdown actually hits two birds with one stone: it gets rid of p0rn sights that offend officialdom's morality and it can be used to sweep away other sites that offend officialdom in other ways.

    * I should note that I do not speak or understand Italian, althoug my mother-in-law is an Italiaphile and fluent in the language. Enzo kindly sent these links by email. He also promises to start blogging in English one day - that day cannot come soon enough.
    ** My French sucks as well, but I think I got the gist.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:56
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    Turning the tables

    For once China has found itself at the mercy of Hong Kong, rather than vice versa.

    It all started when China lost 0-1 to Kuwait in the World Cup Asian group qualifying match. That now means China needs to win its next match by two goals more than Kuwait's score against Malaysia. And who is China playing in its final match? The Big Lychee's best.

    It took all of a day for a Chinese newspaper, the Oriental Sport Daily, to suggest the Chinese Football Association ring their Hong Kong associates and ask them to "do their patriotic duty", and throw the match. To his credit, China's coach Arie Hann, dismissed the idea immediately. Nevertheless the paper eloquently rapped its plea in rhetoric:

    "When the cat asks the mouse not to eat him, then this is a real football revolution. What he (CFA vice-president Yan) must do is use that thick magnetic voice of his to recite to his beloved Hong Kong compatriots the saying that 'blood is thicker than water'. Of course he must shed tears in order to show them how moved he is. (translation via SCMP)
    Now you know why China scares the sh!t out of Hong Kongers. Hong Kong needs to grab this opportunity and trash their Chinese opponents on November 17. And what better time to play that video, to really get the patriotic fevour going.

    This continues soccer's tradition of stupidity.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:08
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    Scoop of the week

    On Monday Hemlock broke the story of LegCo member Philip "The Finger" Wong's interesting educational background. With a couple of dodgy degrees from such well-known institutions as Southland University and California Coast University, "Doctor" Wong isn't looking so smart.

    Now, finally, some of Hong Kong's media have caught up. Today The Standard "breaks" the story of "Lawmaker's degrees from 'diploma mills'":

    But an investigation by The Standard has uncovered evidence that suggests the quality of the degrees issued by both CCU and SU is questionable.
    It is an interesting report but begs two questions:

    1. Do reporters read blogs? If so why wasn't Hemlock's journalism acknowledged?
    2. Is Hemlock actually Colum Murphy, the reporter for The Standard who broke the news? It would certainly help explain this.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:50
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    Wrong move

    Pakistan commandos raided the al-Qaeda militants holding Chinese hostages in Pakistan after hearing gunfire from the compound. Unfortunately Wang Peng, a surveyor on the hydro-electric dam project, was killed in the raid.

    Quick note to al-Qaeda: you've now pissed off the Chinese. Not a good move on your part. They are not as "constrained" in their freedom of action should they fully join the war on terror.

    UPDATE: China is send a team to investigate and express condolences. Dare I suggest there may be other "teams" on the way?

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:39
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    Good news Friday

    After 40 years, China and Russia have finally settled on where their border is. The bad news is it looks like China's going to miss out on the Russian oil pipeline it was hoping for (past entries on this here and here).

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:21
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    October 14, 2004
    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Hong Kongers are both smarter and more patriotic than TV gives them credit for. ESWN looks at the issue of anthems and sums up: If this national anthem thing bothers you, you just hold it against them and don't let them get the satisfaction. Just remember who these people are and make sure they don't get what they want. Ever.

  • Is Chen Shui-bien Taiwan's Nixon?

  • The Chinese are actually Jewish.

  • Dan Washburn's latest installment of his excellent travel series is online. When will he get the book deal he so clearly deserves?

  • The Chinese Peasants Study has really made it now: it's being used in a computer virus.

  • The always-thoughtful Andres has set-off an interesting debate in the comments to Adam's post on a book by Ethan Gutmann about the American expat community in China. Gutmann responds to Adam's thoughts in the comments as well. But back to Andres' question: do China bloggers suffer from a sort of schizophrenia? After the first few comments the thread falls foul of an ongoing unrelated dispute between two other bloggers. The new thread has begun here Dave has some interesting thoughts worth reading through on the topic as well. This is a good discussion China bloggers need to have.

  • China's adding pounds.

  • First Reuters announces it is targeting Chinese consumers; next day the head of Reuters is visiting Xinhua. Fons is on to Xinhua.

  • China's children are going crazy and Jodi's worried.
  • Korea and Japan

  • South Korea has laid claim to a chunk of Chinese territory but didn't want anyone to know, so they buried it in a Parliamentary report, which a newspaper then exposed. Oops. On the same topic Tom Plate says China should waive its territorial claims in the Koguryo controversy for its own sake and that it is not yet time to lift the arms embargo..

  • Counting years and history making Geishas.

  • Read what Korea can learn from Japan's mistakes in Iraq, by someone who's been there. And with Korean troops in Iraq, a look at Islamic Koreans.

  • Defector Jenkins is back at work, in uniform, claiming his pay and with his North Korean raised family living on a US army base.

  • North Korea's Kim Il-sung missed a great potential sideline: health tips.

  • Oprah, you wouldn't like Koreans when they're angry.

  • There a major trade dispute brewing between Korea and Japan...

  • Even Stalinists don't like North Korea.

  • Joshua says diplomacy isn't working and its time for another approach for dealing with North Korea.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • The Bali was two years ago: Rajan points to this Mark Steyn piece and has his own thoughts; The Swanker also reflects on what happened and what it means: There can be no dialogue with terrorists. Unconditional surrender should be the only peace terms we seek.

  • India has new angle on tourism: the medical kind.

  • Conrad has excerpts from the five part Asia Times series on the Philippines. And he has a plan.

  • It is not a happy time for the glitterati in Singapore. Some of them could be hanging around...

  • Singapore's Temasek Holdings, the Government company that controls most of Singapore's major businesses, has opened its books.

  • FriskoDude's SE Asia round-up includes foreplay, the Cambodian abdication, drugs, prostitutes and a yeti. Go read.

  • The Argus covers the Afghan elections in both words and pictures.
  • Miscellany

  • Did the USSR collapse because of Western powers or because senior officials lost faith in socialism?

  • Andy's getting married.

  • Did you know that Kim Jong-il blogs?
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 18:42
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    Boffins against terror

    First it was the economists waging the war on terror; now The Acorn points out that even the mathematicians are joining the fight: abstract maths on how to disable terrorists networks.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 13:43
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    Leung Long Hair joke of the day

    If only someone could point Leung Kwok-hung, newest member of HK's Legco and wearer of the indy world's logo of choice, a Che Guevara t-shirt, to this fascinating bit of history from Che's life. It seems like such an apt metaphor.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:09
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    Go now

    God is not an equal opportunity kind of guy: proof.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:05
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    Denying history

    The approaches of Germany and Japan in dealing with their history are markedly different. Germany faced and has largely dealt with its legacy and has become a prosperous nation that is slowly assuming its place in the world. Japan, on the other hand, has not properly faced up to its actions in and before WW2 and it continues to act as a brake on Japan's recent baby steps to become more active in the world.

    The previous edition of Asia by Blog noted a Japanese cartoonist under fire for portraying the Rape of Nanjing. Now the cartoonist has found his cartoon has been blocked due to political pressure. It represents a double failure: both of facing up to Japan's history and of freedom of the press. It is why Japan does not yet deserve a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

    UPDATE: Someone else is also unimpressed, with a far better title to boot.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:34
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    A new one

    Honey, it's not what it looks like...I was sleepwalking.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:10
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    A click is a click is a click

    Asia Times reports on a new way for Indian housewives to supplement their income: clicking internet ads. Contracted to companies that promise to deliver a set number of clicks to online ads, these women can earn up to US$1,000 a month by simply sitting and clicking. No doubt those mean advertisers aer working on getting tracknig software to clamp down on the practice at the cost of these poor Indian housewives. Damn globalisation.

    Time for a boycott of online ads?

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:47
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    Guangxi

    What does Mickey Mouse, American tax law, pollution, America's standing in Asia and Feng Shui all have in common? They are crammed into this NYT article on HongKong Disneyland. They can't help themselves:

    As Disney prepares to open the park with the broadcast on Thursday of the first television ads in Shanghai, there are some signs of growing anti-American sentiment here. A survey of nine Asian countries and territories released on Monday found that 47 percent of residents here held a negative opinion of the United States, second only to Indonesia. Gallup and TNS, a market information company, conducted the survey.

    The survey found that the poor opinion here had been shaped mainly by American foreign policy, however, with residents still holding a much higher opinion of the American economy. Eden Woon, the chief executive of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, which played host to Mr. Iger's speech, said that he saw very little chance of any anti-American protests here and doubted that any such sentiments here would hurt Hong Kong Disneyland. "China always is conflicted between accepting foreign things and trying to maintain its own culture," he said.

    Many prosperous residents here pursued various stratagems to obtain American passports before Britain returned Hong Kong to China in 1997. Jeffrey K. F. Lam, a member of the Legislative Council here who attended Mr. Iger's speech, said that some were now renouncing their American citizenship.

    Interesting how turning in passports is framed as Hong Kongers being digusted with America, when the truth is actually very different.
    But he said this was mostly to avoid paying American taxes in addition to Hong Kong taxes, and because of renewed confidence in Hong Kong's future, not because of hostility to the United States.
    What does annoy HKers is that the Government has subsidised Disney to the tune of more than US$4 billion. The article mentions US$2.88 billion but that excludes the various transportation and infrastructure works the Governmetn is also subsidising. And Mike Rowse, who negotiated the contract, forgot a tiny little detail: that Disney might also want to open another in mainland China, likely Shanghai. Incredibly they did not include a clause restricting Disney from opening another park within greater China.

    It's good to know that Disney changed the orientation of the park a few degrees to enhance the feng shui. It is also good to know the site was chosen to take advantage of the HK vista...except now pollution from Guandong is going to obscure that view. Perhaps if the HK Government ploughed some of their money into working towards cleaner air, they'd be doing something that both Disney and the people of Hong Kong can benefit from.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:33
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    October 13, 2004
    The Professional Blogger

    Reading the online symposium hosted by John Hawkins, with Michele, Ace, Bill of INDC and Frank J I came across the following exchange:

    John Hawkins: Speaking of which -- take a look at the following numbers. This is how much money the following bloggers are making per week off of Blogads if you take how much money they charge for a weekly ad and multiply times the number of ads they have. Keep in mind that these numbers will be a bit high because rates longer than a week are a bit cheaper...

    Frank J.: Instapundit is making more than my salary as an engineer.

    John Hawkins: Daily Kos $14,500, Talking Points Memo $8500, Eschaton $6000, Instapundit $3250, Andrew Sullivan $5200...

    Ace: John, You're killing me. Crushing me.

    Bill: Jesus.

    John Hawkins: Hugh Hewitt $3000...

    Michele Catalano: A week?

    John Hawkins: MyDD $6200 , Wonkette $4000

    ....

    John Hawkins: So is money changing the blogosphere in your opinion? As far as I can tell, it's only changing it for the better.

    Frank J.: I know I wouldn't post as much if I weren't trying to improve my traffic so I can charge more for ads.

    Michele Catalano: I think it shows in how much people post.

    Ace: I've gotten no money thus far (save from donations), but I know I'm tempted to cool down my rhetoric in exchange for a little jack. (my emphasis)

    There's more. Blogging is going the way of the internet before it: it is going from the hobby of amateurs to the domain of professionals. But Mammon is a funny old God to worship and there are serious questions that need to be considered. Ace's comment is the key: it would be natural for bloggers to "adjust" their message to persue advertising dollars. In this bloggers would simply be following in the footsteps of mainstream media. Despite journalists protestations to the contrary, most media are aware who pays the bills. That's natural and that's capitalism. Now it's blogging's turn.

    Much has been made in recent months of blogging as a new medium and its impact on mainstream media. Yet it seems to me that at the same time money from advertising is luring some blogs into a spiral: a blog serves a niche and thus delivers particular readers to advertisers and so that blog continues to specialise and specialise in that niche to attract more ads. Perhaps it is inevitable. Blogging is strange in that the more popular you get, the more expensive it becomes. There are reverse or dis-economies of scale.

    I don't begrudge bloggers trying to earn money from their sights. Hell, the idea that at least some might follow in the steps of Andrew Sullivan or TPM and become almost full-timers is an exciting prospect. What I would like to see is that each blog that accepts money via Blogads (or similar schemes) has a post somewhere prominent clearly explaining the blogger has considered the issues that come with accepting money from advitisers. Issues such as how potential conflicts-of-interest will be dealt with. What ads will and won't be accepted. Any explicit influences advertising has over content. In other words, I'd like to see bloggers facing up to the same issues that other media have dealt with on this issue.

    It is great to see blogging rapidly change from a hobby to something far greater. The arrival of money is a part of the evolution of this new field. It brings both risks and rewards for bloggers and their readers and it important that both are considered, rather than just rushing for the money. And while I accept that bloggers are fully justified to recoup their costs and be repaid for their time and effort, I also feel an ambivalence. One of the great aspects of blogging in its earlier guise was that it was the work of amateurs and that it wasn't done for money, but only for the hell of it. Just as the Olympics seemed to lose a special something once professionals were admitted (and Rugby Union while we're at it), so blogging to seems to be losing a certain something about it just as it is gaining credibility and respect. Call it nostalgia.

    I'd be interested in others' thoughts.

    Posts on the Symposium:
    * RWN
    * IMAO
    * INDC
    * Ace
    * ASV
    * Others listed here.



    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 19:41
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    2046 +1

    An article by Ted Naganawa on the future of Hong Kong amazingly combines some keen insights with superficial cliches. The gist is that Hong Kong's focus on democracy should be secondary to improving itself economically. In the introduction there is the usual comparison of HK with its "rivals" in Asia, namely Singapore and Shanghai, although the author already hits upon HK's key advantage: the future is based on China's development and Singapore is too far away (not to mention not Chinese) and Shanghai lacks HK's infrastructure, legal system and collective expertise.

    Next the author asks if full democracy in HK is an end in itself and thinks it is not. Here is the one key insight the author reaches and something I've been thinking about lately myself:

    Election reform is only one step in a process to achieve an ultimate objective, not an end itself. What really matters politically—and economically—is not immediate democracy, but the preservation of Hong Kong’s special status after 2047, when the “one country, two systems” stipulation of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, expires...No matter how much democracy Hong Kong enjoys internally for another 43 years, once the Basic Law expires and Hong Kong becomes another big—however democratic—city in Southern China, then democracy in Hong Kong probably will not mean a whole lot. Instead, what will matter is how much China itself would be democratized by then. However, if Hong Kong attains, by 2047, the position of an unparalleled financial/business center in Asia and the world, the approaches of the Beijing government and the entire world, including that of the United States, when dealing with the city, would be different.

    Regardless of the democratization of China itself, whether the Beijing government wants to maintain Hong Kong as a democratic free economy after 2047, or do something else about it, depends on three key factors: the economic advantage for the mainland economy in keeping Hong Kong democratic, the international recognition of Hong Kong’s importance to the global economy, which would force a political calculation by the Beijing government, and the democratic will of the people of Hong Kong.

    The "one country, two systems" formula is a good enough fig leaf and at the time of negotiation I am sure 50 years seemed an ample amount of time to sort out how HK would be properly integrated into China proper. Indeed the massive changes in both China and HK since the 1997 handover show that speculating on what will be happening in 2047 impossible. But it is not an issue that can be put off indefinitely. Within the next 10 years there will need to be at least some progress towards the final settlement of HK's status. Why? Because any proposition involving a long term committment of capital, for example property purchases or factories, needs to know what the rules of the game will be. Any hint of uncertainty would be the certain death of HK.

    The article in question makes one other good point. For Hong Kong to have a better hand in determining its own future, democracy is not the only factor at play. Gaining greater links with the USA, in the author's opinion, is crucial to act as a counterweight to China. That isn't true: Hong Kong's status is and will be an itnernal Chinese issue. But keeping its economy vibrant and remaining a key gateway to China (dare I use the words "world city"?) will be crucial in determining the city's future post-2047. Most likely is Hong Kong's "special" status will be retained post-2047; while China's growth is rapid, it is a long way short of HK in living standards. Why would China ever give up its golden goose? In other words, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:03
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    Smart people

    The FT prints an article by the China Economic Quarterly team on the the economics of education in China. There has been rapid growth in the number of children attending school and the study attributes this to the jump in the average increase in annual income expected for each extra year of schooling. The rate was around 4% in the late 80s, but is now averaging closer to 10%. There are even higher gains for technical school education and college education. So China now has an army of smarter workers and it is growing: there are now 132 million students in senior high school, up from 51 million in 1995. The number of university graduates has doubled to 1.9 million a year, and is expected to double again by 2008.

    The article explores the economic consequences of this smarter workforce. No doubt it is a major reason that China is experiencing such rapid economic growth and it will be a factor underpinning that growth for years to come. The article links this improved education with the labour shortages now hitting the Pearl River Delta and other regions (although The Economist (sub req'd) notes other factors such as higher rural incomes, lack of social security and health-care). Another extremely important factor is China's tradition of a national university examination system. This has been a part of China's education system for literally hundreds of years and has helped balance out social inequities by giving the best and brightest a chance regardless of income. Compared to many other developed and developing countries, this system allows for far greater social mobility and acts to reduce stratification of social classes.

    What the article overlooks is the political implications of these changes. A more educated and richer workforce has more to protect and aspire to. This is the great challenge that faces the CCP: to remain in power they need to work on retaining legitimacy. In times past they may have been the party of the peasantry, but with the changes in Chinese society that is no longer relevant nor enough. It is a problem that Hu Jintao has recognised and is tackling and it is the biggest challenge facing the CCP since it claimed power. Because as China's population gets smarter they will also start asking questions abot the way they are governed and the CCP will need to have answers.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:11
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    Ponzi in HK

    In these days of spam and emails from Nigeria promising riches, it amazes me that Ponzi (pyramid) schemes still occur. The biggest example in modern times was in Albania, where such a scheme lead to the collapse of the Government and near civil war. But that was dismissed as ignorant, backwards Eastern Europeans out for a fast buck. However there is currently a court case in modern, prosperous Hong Kong prosecuting a similar scheme.

    From the SCMP:

    A transport worker said yesterday he had parted with almost two months' pay to join a pyramid investment scheme after he saw people waiting in a queue that stretched 18 floors...He was giving evidence on the second day of the trial of four men accused of fraud in what has been described as Hong Kong's biggest pyramid-selling case. The court has heard that it involved $7 billion and 14,000 victims, and returns of up to 3,300 per cent were promised.

    Mr Au said that he was told he only needed to contribute $11,000 to reap net returns of about $140,000 14 months later. He bought two shares in the company's Plan D, paying $7,188 on September 5, 2000 and $7,000 two days later. At the time he was earning $9,500 a month. He said he was told to pay an extra $2,000 on October 9 the same year to complete all payments due, in the hope that the money would automatically accumulate without any further action on his part.

    If it's too good to be true, then it usually is. Obviously greed is a trait that can overrule even the most "sophisticated" people.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:28
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    Expanding

    As China is getting richer it is fast emulating the Western world in many ways...including obesity. To get rich might be glorious, but it also packs on the pounds.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:18
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    October 12, 2004
    Breaking European news

    Common sense prevails, despite the best efforts of Jacques Chirac.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 18:50
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    Good times are back

    As I write this I am watching the Cable TV broadcast of Hong Kong's latest land auction. Under the system the HK Government lists various blocks of land available for development and a minimum reserve price. Once a developer is prepared to at least pay the reserve it sets off an auction which is open to all comers for that property. In times past this was a major revenue generator for the HK Government, but since the property crash this source has dried up.

    Until today. The bidding for the block at Ho Man Tin, expected to go for around HK$7.22 billion, is currently bid at HK$8.42 billion with no end in sight. The main bidders are a company gweilo, a lawyer looking type and some dodgy looking guy with a cap pulled low over his face. I'm guessing Tung Che-hwa is watching and having a jolly good time watch property developers quickly eroding what's left of HK's budget deficit. Clearly Hong Kong is on the rebound.

    UPDATE: $8.54 billion with the dodgy cap guy and still going.
    UPDATE 2: $8.92 billion while I went for coffee and still going. When does Tung announce tax cuts?
    UPDATE 3: Dodgy cap guy for Chief Exec! Bidding at $9.06 billion or almost $2 billion above expections.
    UPDATE 4: The gweilo's back, bidding $9.28 billion, but the shadowy lawyer type keeps coming back. $9.3 billion bid...it must be a good price because now the whole office is watching, not just the gweilos.
    Final UPDATE: The gweilo won at $9.42 billion or US$1.2 billion. That's a hell of a lot of schools, police, doctors...

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:47
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    Biometric babies

    I've just returned from the photo shop where young (7.5 weeks old) BL posed for his passport photos. Under the strict new requirements for an Australian passport, the following was required: white background; mouth closed; eyes open; looking straight at the camera; no other people visible in the photo. It only took 4 attempts, which apparently is good going for a baby. Why don't they ask us to herd cats while we're at it?

    Best of all is this passport will be valid for 5 years. Just like his sisters before him, BL will have a baby photo in his passport until he's age 5, at which point he'll look completely unlike his passport photo. Perhaps the biometric systems being put in place can allow for the rapid changes in a child's face in their early years, but I doubt it. As to how the world is safer because a baby's mouth is closed in a photo, I do not know.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:12
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    Leading the world

    I really shouldn't be surprised by the innovations that Hong Kong's world beating financial services industry come up with to stay ahead of the game. In terms of co-branding, this has to be the ultimate...

    The Hello Kitty credit card.

    kittycard.jpg



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 14:25
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    Claytons judgements

    The ongoing saga of the ICAC newspaper raids has reached a farcial stage. The Court of Appeal handed down what can only be considered a perplexing judgement. The Court decided it had no jurisdtiction because the case should have been lodged in the Court of Final Appeal instead, as it was a civil matter nota criminal one. Normally that would have been the end of the judgement. But not this time. Instead they then went on to actual deliver what their judgement would have been:

    ...the judges added: "Had this court possessed the necessary jurisdiction, the appeal would have been allowed with costs.''

    Speaking on behalf of the three, Justice Geoffrey Ma said: "I am satisfied that the ICAC acted entirely lawfully in seeking the search warrants in this case. The freedom of the press in the present case must be seen against the fact that serious crimes may well have been committed.''

    So the Court saw fit to waste a week of its own time, allow the ICAC (funded by HK's taxpayers) and Sing Tao to pay their armies of lawyers for a wasted few weeks of work, and take time away for other pending cases. If it was clear the court had no jurisdiction the judges should have stopped the matter and delivered that judgement immediately and without an additional commentary on the merits of the case. It is absurd for the judges to say they can't rule but then making a non-binding ruling regardless.

    ICAC now has the option of appealing to the Court of Final Appeal and no dobut they will, being emboldened by the pat on the back by the Court of Appeal. That means even more HK taxpayer money wasted. Before they did they need to ask their legal team some serious questions. The first one should be why the hell they launched the first appeal in the wrong court. I'd be interested in the answer.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:21
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    Chinese hostages in Pakistan

    Two Chinese engineers were kidnapped in Pakistan on the weekend and are being held hostage. The terrorists have now strapped explosives to the bodies of their hostages and are threatening to kill at least one unless they get safe passage to their leader, although they've already "spared" them once. The terrorists are now in talks to free their victims and are demanding the release of 6 of their fellow Taleban/Al-Qaeda operatives. It begs the question of why in the hell would Al-Qaeda want to goad China into becoming more active on the war on terror?

    But even better is this:

    Pakistan officials said the kidnappers were taking orders from [Abdullah] Mehsud, a former inmate of the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, who now heads tribesmen fighting alongside al Qaeda fighters in South Waziristan...

    Abdullah, who is in his 20s, was among 26 inmates freed from Guantanamo Bay in March after the Pentagon said they were no longer a threat to the United States and had no intelligence value.

    That's one serious mistake by the Pentagon.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:55
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    Caffinated ignorance

    Note to Pacific Coffee in Cheung Kong Centre: "Nothing will come of nothing" is by William Shakespeare. It's bad enough to have trite blackboard slogans to deal with each morning, let alone incorrect ones.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:55
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    October 11, 2004
    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Driving on China's roads can be murder. And even worse the WHO says Beijing is underestimating the numbers by more than 100,000 deaths a year. Phil looks at solutions.

  • Chris looks at the huge value of Hong Kong's helper army.

  • China is taking concrete steps in its fight against AIDS, on the subways and in the pubs.

  • Hemlock notes (Monday, Oct 11 entry) the dubious qualifications of HK's famous finger waver and the gweilo population of Hong Kong will be gone, by 2193.

  • First spam, now Cialis in contraband medicine. Maybe they should try fish instead?

  • Jodi explains why the arms embargo against China should remain in place. She also thinks China has been remarkably tolerant with Taiwan.

  • A fascinating piece of Hong Kong's history: the events of October 10th 1953 left some with a disdainful view of Anglo-American ideas of "freedom" and of the Republic of China.
  • Korea and Japan

  • Forget about the war on terror. Marmot has everything you need to know about that other war: the war on prostitution. Those affected are protesting vigorously.

  • There's a price on the head of Korean soldiers in Iraq

  • Why hasn't North Korea collapsed? The original article by Nicholas Eberstadt has plenty of food for thought. Andy takes issue with some of the points raised, particularly on the political side while the Infidel says the main question is not how the North persists but why it should? Also take a look at a thorough analysis of the USA's North Korean Human Rights Act and policy on North Korea. Clearly China's worried about an influx of more North Korean refugees.

  • A Japanese cartoonist is coming under fire for portraying the Rape of Nanjing.

  • North Korea's position on the US elections: they don't care who wins.

  • Joi Ito wonders if Japan was ready for a super-typhoon.

  • Japan's trying to stop another kind of invasion.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • The Acorn looks at the Afghan poll and Rajan takes issues with the idea the poll was too early.

  • The Swanker thinks more Aussies should learn Asian languages and that it might help in Australia's war on terror. Rajan thinks it would be a waste of money.
  • Miscellany

  • Arthur goes around the world in 31 blogs.

  • The perfect gift for your Korean friends this Christmas.

  • Rajan takes issue with the Nobel Peace Prize. Niraj has a good suggestion for a winner for the Economics Prize.

  • Love often is the victim of tortured analogies. But this could be a first for cabbage.

  • Where being ostentatious has no bounds.

  • Do they all really look the same? Play the game and test yourself. And then wonder about the reverse: to many Asians, all caucasians look the same.

  • Even the humble accordion is being digitised.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:01
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    Australian election round-up

    John Howard's thumping win on the weekend was always the most likely result. Labor's inept final week and especially its unnecessary deal with the Greens which cost it two seats in Tasmania, not to mention Mark Latham's limited time at the helm, all cost them. What is interesting is the solid position Howard now finds himself in, with control of the Senate to boot. For the first time in living memory an Australian leader actually as a solid mandate to push through with reforms without having them diluted by fringe parties in the Senate (goodbye, Democrats). When Democrat leader Andrew Bartlett calls this "a disaster for democracy", what he actually means is it is a disaster for his now impotent party. What it actually means is a party elected by the majority of the country can actually implement its program without a tiny minority forcing changes. Not since the 1970s has an Australian leader had such control over Parliament. That could be both a blessing and a curse, but now Howard has no excuses to avoid fulfilling the rest of his agenda.

    Some are already saying that the war on terror didn't have much to do with the result, although some disagreed. The reality is the war on terror was an issue, but by no means a major one. This was partly because Australia was blessedly devoid of any terror in the lead up to the war, with the notable exception of the Jakarta bombings. This is a blessing that seems to have been missed in the aftermath of the election, and it helped keep the war on terror far from most voters' minds. What did influence people? Well perhaps that Australia has now had an unprecedented 15 year uninterrupted economic boom with no signs of it ending; that this Government has delivered a solid fiscal position by repaying debt and not dipping into deficit; that interest rates have been low and memories of the "recession we had to have" and its 18% mortgage rates still scare the bejeesus out of this nation of mortgage and credit-card holders; Howard's party had a solid track record and had done nothing particularly wrong on the domestic front since assuming power; that Howard still has policies and reforms to implement; and even that Australia's winning ways continue in more ways than one. Against one of Australia's most formidable politicians Labor fielded a leader whom did not have enough time to shake of his past reputation and mould himself into a potential Prime Minister nor to acquaint people with his policies. They compounded their errors by downplaying legitimate criticisms and policies and instead pandering. And therein lies the lesson of those in America: the incumbent holds far more advantages than is often given credit for, and the issues that influence the voter in the booth may differ greatly from those that dominate the headlines and amongst the politicos. In other words this result tells you that as things stand Bush has a far stronger chance of being re-elected should the polls appear to be even on polling day.

    So what is the rest of the blogosphere saying about all of this?

    * For an excellent and detailed look at the results, go to the excellent Poll Bludger and just keep scrolling.
    * Tim Blair has rediscovered his love for his country. He links to two decent pieces of media punditry.
    * The Currency Lad has a comprehensive look at the issues and where the election was won and lost.
    * Ken Parish wonders if Howard and his team can exercise wisdom and restraint in victory. Which begs the question whether Latham and co. would have managed the same? As I said above, Howard has a complete mandate for the first time in 25 years; why should he "restrain" himself? The voters have just given him a solid mandate to implement his policies. He doesn't need to hold back.
    * Tony has found another winner on the night.
    * Tim Dunlop cops it sweet and also notes that despite his expectations, the undecideds tended to break for the incumbent.
    * There's already a plan for Labor's next campaign.
    * John Quiggin's post-mortem begins with this gem: First, I have to concede immediately that the betting markets got this one right. Unlike polls and pundits, including me, they consistently predicted the return of the government. People who put their money up tend to put their emotions aside and concentrate more on the likely result. He then puts Howard's victory down to luck, conceding Howard's luck has lasted longer than most. The old adage says "you make your own luck", but for some on the left admitting that Howard is a good politician who beat them fair and square is going to prove impossible. And that's why the Liberals will start favourites the next time as well - because Labor has not yet had the necessary reckoning in facing up to its failures.
    * Mike points out in the comments to Vodkapundit this gem from Steven den Beste: They didn't let us down. Let's hope we don't let them down.
    * John Ray maintains Labor lost because they remain too far to the left of Australia's mainstream. The Gnu Hunter also lists the reasons why Labor blew it.
    * There's a new superhero in town.
    * How can Labor get it so wrong, so often? asks the cabbie that knows.
    * Slatts has a collection of letters celebrating the win in the pages of the press.
    * The Swanker echoes what is no doubt true for many Labor supporters: For my own part, I am disappointed that Labor had such a poor showing, but in all honesty I have not done too badly under a Howard Government. In other words it's the Claytons win: the win you have when you're not having a win.
    * Yobbo's got a Death Pool tip.
    * Arthur had a long and interesting look at the result, including his view from "on the ground".
    * The Raw Prawn also rounds-up the results.
    * Kev Gillett's happy and the Professor is channeling rock 'n roll.
    * Whacking Day has more reactions from the politicians and some who aren't taking the news well.
    * The Silent Running crew are not rubbing it in...too much. Tom Paine prepares for the left's bloodletting.
    * On the international front: Wretchard reflects on the lessons Labor can learn and why a "common man" like Howard (or Bush) resonates with voters; Joe Katzman sees Australia remaining a steadfast US ally; Glenn on the spin that might have been; B5 rubbishes the notion the election was about Iraq, but hopes it's the start of a roll as does Powerline and Roger L Simon.

    Finally, lest we forget, another important election happened this weekend as well.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:22
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    Balance

    The entire family had the pleasure of taking in the Gaelic Football Sevens yesterday afternoon in Aberdeen. As could only be expected when several hundred Irishmen and women gather in a celebration of their national sport, the Guinness flowed and the "to be sure's" where thick and fast. The Korean team proved victorous in the mens, despite being widely despised for their victory at all costs mentality. However I am pleased to report the Hong Kong women's team did the Big Lychee proud.

    The day included a male stripper, whom in time honoured tradition managed to wear himself out by running the length of the field twice. Not to be outdone young PB, now in the second week of her toilet training, decided after the final game that the half-way line was a perfect place to practice her number ones. Thus disrobed she proceeded to spend a merry hour with her sister JC chasing her Daddy all over the park, running after the ball and showing extremely good form to boot (pun intended). Just trying to balance out the sexism in streakers.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:15
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    Double Tenth

    In a much heralded speech, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian used his National Day speech to call for peace talks with China (the full speech is here). These National Day celebrations where a break with the past. Chen proposed moving forward based on the 1992 Hong Kong consensus, which says both sides accept there is only "one China" but differ in their understanding of what that means. He pushed for a code of conduct to control the arms race and prevent future conflict over Taiwan. At the same time, however, he re-iterated support for Taiwan's massive arms purchase from the US. Naturally the opposition KMT were accusing Chen of gimmickery and trying to attract voters in year-end legislative elections in Taiwan.

    China's natural reaction has been to reject the speech, saying it was "more symbolic than substantial". The official response has been that there is nothing new in Chen's speech and that he is still determined to push forward on Taiwan's independence. Interestingly though, the China Daily quotes a Chinese expert on Taiwan, Li Jiaquan:

    "His call for bilateral talks suggested even the Taiwanese leader himself has come to realize the significance of improving cross-Straits ties to the stability and economic development of Taiwan...But he has apparently failed to find a correct way of breaking the stalemate in cross-Straits ties by sticking to his pro-independence stance."
    That's as close to an admission of progress as you're likely to hear from the China side. It's early days but this could signal the first progress in China-Taiwan relations since Chen's election back in 1999.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:59
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    They both have red in their flags

    Here's a quick lesson in realpolitik for you: President Jacques Chirac spends time finding broad consensus with his Chinese counterparts on many issues, including lifting the EU arms embargo. Not co-incidentally China Air orders a massive 26 Airbus airplanes, Airbus at the same time announced its intention to increase its purchasing in China, and Alstom of France announces contracts worth 1 billion Euros for trains to China.

    That's a good investment, at the small cost of ignoring China's appalling human rights record. Liberty, equality, fraternity stops at the border.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:37
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    October 08, 2004
    Enemablog

    After a sabbatical (and just in time for Shabbat) I've resurrected the weekly linkefst to various interesting links from the wider blogosphere, as promised. Enjoy your weekend...

    * Where's Bill? As Paul says, it's like a ghost town in there.

    * There was great excitement at the success of SpaceshipOne's winning of the ANSARI X-prize and Richard Branson is already setting up Virgin Galactic (which reminds me of Pan Am in 2001: A Space Odyssey and how quickly that proved to be an anachronism, but I digress). But no-one seems to have focussed on the main game: when will the budget space airlines start? Will the hub and spoke model prove as bad for space as it has for Earth-bound airlines? Will the International Space Station become the Denver airport of the skies? And why wasn't anyone watching Area 51?

    * And hands off Paul's goose, Arnie.

    * Rusty ain't buying any more Prince albums.

    * Say what you like about Google, those wascly wabbits have won gweat sense of humour that you can take where-ever you may go.

    * The Commissar constructs the Shrill-o-Meter.

    * Don't forget to catch up on the latest in Asian blogging.

    * Meet Angus, a man with a great sex-life and a great woman-friend (she isn't a girl).

    * Some things are so good they are worth linking to twice: Michele's take on the current state of blogging, not some new kind of journalism. If there's one thing bloggers like talking about, it's themselves and their medium. Michele is one who's taking stock is worth the pixels it's written with.

    * You don't even need to know Pete to help compose his biography. Just read what other people have written already in the comments and join in the fun.

    * When Andrew Sullivan fisks Wretchard, he doesn't get mad, he just fisks back.

    * Some men never learn.

    * The damn SIMS game is getting in the way of my regular reading.

    * Kim Jong Il is about to star in a blockbuster American movie. And there's a sequel coming from the famous JibJab "Our Land" team. Like most sequels, it's likely to follow the path of the first but not quite hit the same highs. I hope I'm wrong.

    * John Zogby is coming to Hong Kong in a couple of weeks and I have the pleasure of attending a talk of his. It will be interesting to hear from this prominent pollster, who has a great record and is currently out on a limb compared to most polls on the US election.

    * Canada pays too high a price for a cheap sub.

    * Darfur is rightly getting a lot of attention, but RP wants to know why Uganda is being overlooked?

    * For once "show me your tits" is encouraged in the world's oldest charity technique: money for boobies.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:58
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    Going to the chapel

    There are more than 100,000 weddings in Shanghai every year. That means 100,000 neurotic brides, panickying mothers, over-paid planners and ambivalent grooms. One of the chief sources of anxiety is the dreaded "something going wrong", which could be anything from the wrong photo being displayed to a massive bout of food poisoning. Thankfully China's enterprising insurers are here to help: wedding accident insruance is here:

    The insurance, which caters to the city's booming wedding market, covers mishaps such as food poisoning. The bride and groomcan get compensation of up to 180,000 yuan (21,770 US dollars) while guests can be compensated up to 20,000 yuan (2420 dollars) and have 5,000 yuan (605 dollars) of their medical costs covered.

    According to China Ping'an, the newly married couple pays 29 yuan (3.5 dollars) for themselves and individual guests pay 1.5 yuan (18 cents) to have their wedding insured.

    No word yet if the insurers will develop honeymoon insurance or even rest of married life insurance.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:44
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    I just called to say...

    President Bush rings President Hu Jintao to chew the fat over the yuan, Taiwan and North Korea. I've always wondered about these phone calls - I imagine they are stiffly formal affairs, completely pre-arranged where both read a script on a conference call with 200 people listening in. Completely useless, in other words. But the timing cannot be co-incidental. This week President Chirac of France is in Asia, partly to push the EU to lift its arms embargo on China. Again it isn't a co-incidence that France has Europe's biggest arms industry. The Americans are firmly against lifting the arms embargo, fearing (correctly) it will upset the strategic balance between Taiwan and China and hurt efforts to improve human rights. The flow-on is if the EU lifts its arms embargo, the USA could withhold defense co-operation with the Europeans. While that could well suit the French, the more Atlantist members of the EU, such as the UK and Poland, will no doubt veto the lifting of the arms embargo.

    So the end result is France looks good in the eyes of China while it knows that even if it loses in attempting to overturn the embargo, it wins in other favourable concessions from China. Say what you like about Chirac, he's a canny politician and diplomat.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:26
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    China being invaded

    Kuwait, which only a little over a decade ago was invaded itself, is now planning to stake a claim in China. There's a flip-side to all the foreign investment pouring into China. Sometimes it means more competition for local companies from well funded and international experts. And the Kuwaitis are playing a smart game. They are promising to invest huge amounts to create new refining capacity in China, something the coutnry desperately needs to continue supply its rapidly growing energy needs. But the Kuwaitis will only invest if they can also open up retail outlets in direct competition with China's own PetroChina and Sinopec. China will have to weigh up the benefits of securing another large investment in its energy sector with exposing its partially state owned oil retailers.

    It's a no-brainer: China is constantly trying to diversify and secure its oil supply. The Chinese oil retailing industry is about to get a massive shake-up thanks to those invading Kuwaitis.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:09
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    Amensty can relax

    While most of China is on holidays this week, China has just announced that the third week of October will be a "national anti-pain week". That will be a relief for both prisoners and torturers right across China - they all get a week off too.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:58
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    October 07, 2004
    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Property is all the rage in Hong Kong again. ESWN explains why those in 40 square foot units are living in relative luxury. I looked at the growing demand but lack of supply of bigger units in HK and why property in HK is forming a new bubble.

  • Follow Dan Washburn's journey through China. Great site and great writing.

  • For once, everyone stayed home in HK on a Saturday night.

  • There's an interesting set of connections between a WaPo story on Chinese land seizures, the arrest of NYT researcher Zhao Yan and outspoken Fuzhou city party boss Huang Jingao.

  • There's a worse scourge than gambling hitting the youth of Hong Kong.

  • Adam's found an effective way to get around China's Great Firewall.

  • America is send a naval battle group to patrol the Sea of Japan - close to both Taiwan and North Korea.

  • Phil has a comprehensive list of feedback and thoughts on Living in China and where it can go. Go and leave your comments too.

  • Even in this holiday week there's no getting away from China's traffic jams.
  • Korea and Japan

  • Marmot comprehensively covers reports that China would send up to 400,000 troops to support North Korea in a war, including the US plan that called for almost 700,000 American troops within 90 days in the event of a conflict. America has agreed to delay its troop withdrawal by 3 years, to give Seoul more time to prepare. Perhaps because the latest reports are that Seoul would fall to North Korea within 15 days without US troops. Ironically at the same time there is a report on a secret South Korean plan for dealing with the collapse of North Korea, including accommodating 200,000 defectors.

  • Also, find out what really pisses Marmot off and his follow-up as well: ...while it might give one a warm, fuzzy feeling to see Old Glory being waived around at a mass demonstration (beats the hell out of seeing it burnt), a look at the figures and groups involved might make one think twice about whether seeing the symbols of the U.S. invoked at an occasion like Monday’s is such a great thing.

  • Tokyo's Governor is a colourful character, with statements like If Japanese hadn't fought the white people, we would still be slaves of the white people. It would be colonization. We changed that. Read Jodi's take.

  • North Korea has found employment for 500 of its pimply teenagers. They've even discovered a new twist on the "open source" idea.

  • The Infidel is back, with his wife (via Budaechigae).

  • More on why North Korea's rulers have popular support of North Koreans, although perhaps it is because the populace don't know much about the wider world.

  • Andy has more on why the 6 party talks with North Korea are the only game in town.

  • GI Korea has a detailed look at prostitution and human trafficking in Korea.

  • Don't eat cheap sushi (via Joi Ito).
  • SE and Other Asia

  • In Malaysia the fallout from the Jeff Ooi incident continues. His blog has come under investigation for a comment by "Anwar", who has now apologised. It is now getting more attention, including at Slashdot and Reporters sans Frontieres. All the fuss seems to have done is boosted Jeff's traffic.

  • The case of abused maid Nirmala Bonat continues, but meet the real person behind the headlines.

  • Piracy in the Straits of Malacca is getting worse.

  • Will the Khmer Rogue finally be brought to trial?

  • The latest Subcontinent Survey is up at Winds of Change (by Nitin and Robi).

  • Hamas killed a Thai in Gaza, so far without condemnation by the Thai Government.

  • Macam-Macam has a no-holds-barred look at the land of his birth: Brunei.

  • Indonesia officially got a new President and a sore loser.
  • Miscellany

  • Turning the tables on Engrish comes Hanzi Smatter, a site dedicated to the misuse of Chinese characters (via John). Funny stuff in whatever language.

  • Japanese men are taking things sitting down.

  • What are you doing in there?

  • A museum to take JC to.

  • Rent-a-relation in Korea.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:20
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    Taiwan pincer movement

    Wang Xiangwei at the SCMP is on a roll. Today's article represents a major shift in China's Asian diplomacy as it steps up pressure on Taiwan:

    Beijing is planning steps to overcome diplomatic differences with Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries in return for their support for increased pressure on Taiwan.
    The move signals a significant shift in foreign-policy priorities, with the so-called Taiwan issue now one of the most important factors, according to mainland diplomatic sources...

    Beijing (is) ready to make the necessary concessions and overtures to set aside its differences...the Taiwan issue had become one of the most important facing President Hu Jintao. The mainland leadership believed Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was leading the island towards independence and therefore they should seek more international support from neighbours that would suffer should a war break out across the Taiwan Strait, the sources said.

    As part of the effort to improve relations, the leadership is also ready to take measures to curb strong expressions of anti-Japanese sentiment by nationalist elements. Zhao Qizheng , the minister in charge of the State Council's Information Office, told Japanese journalists last week that Beijing had decided to ban anti-Japanese articles from mainstream media. The sources said the Information Office had also shut down several anti-Japanese websites, including one calling for a boycott of Japanese-made goods.

    They said Premier Wen Jiabao's current visit to Vietnam would see both countries set aside their differences over the Spratly Islands and focus on boosting trade links.

    Beijing is also taking steps to defuse the row with South Korea over Koguryo, the ancient kingdom straddling the Korean Peninsula and northeast China. The Koreans claim Koguryo was a precursor of the Korean nation, but mainland scholars recently asserted that it was a local government under central Chinese rule.

    This is a serious move on China's part, laying the diplomatic groundwork for a more decisive move on the Taiwan issue. If China's prepared to make compromises on so many of the sensitive issues that are outstanding with its other Asian neighbours the quid pro quo of pressuring Taiwan will be a small price to pay. It's a canny move on China's part and a massive worry for Taiwan.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:21
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    Words and deeds

    At times the CCP can be stunning in its hypocracy. The lead item at Xinhua's website, the official mouthpiece of the CCP, is titled Government for the interest of the people and proceeds to details various efforts taken by the Government to help workers claim unpaid wages, improve peasants' health, deal with AIDS, help the unemployed and the move from "Serve the People" to "Exercising Government Power in the Interest of the People".

    At the same time the SCMP reports that all media editors have been told not to report on economist Mao Yushi or his Unirule Institue of Economics. The Propaganda Ministry has blacklisted the professor and banned a book he has written, as well as banning some conferences his Institute has tried to organise. Why? Because he reports on cases of farmland acquisition by local cadres, a common source of local protest and corruption. Even better the news blackout also covers websites specialising in exposing corruption and irregularities by local officials. They are not allowed to follow up on land-seizure cases they have been covering.

    "Exercising Government Power in the Interest of the People" indeed.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:10
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    The beautiful game

    China is passionate about soccer but its top league is currently undergoing massive convulsions all due to that typical Chinese problem: corruption. Major club Beijing Hyundai is quitting the league in protest at a series of events in a major dispute with the Chinese Football Association (CFA). On the weekend Beijing Hyundai was playing in a match when at a crucial point a penalty was awarded against them. In protest they went on strike - they literally left the field and did not return. The referee announced the match abondoned and declared a 3-0 win for Shenyang Ginde (the score was 1-1 at the time of the walkout).

    The problem was the Beijing club felt that it was again victim to corrupt referees ("black whistles"), officials and players. The club alleges that matches are ficed and that referees and players bet on games. The CFA has been ridiculed for not maintaining a grip on its Super League and seems powerless to control the current situation. Even worse, three Beijing Hyundai players are in the Chinese national team now playing a World Cup qualifier against Kuwait. Under the rules, players must belong to a CFA club to play for the national team, so these three may be forced to withdraw from the squad.

    Normally in case like this when a coach and team have a hissy fit after a refereeing decision they don't like I have no sympathy for them at all. The rules are the rules and that shuold be the end of the matter. But in this case the team is alleging there are massive levels of corruption right through the ranks of football in China and it is sadly believable. The reality likely lies somewhere in the middle between Beijing Hyundai's allegations and the inevitable CFA defence. Over 1 billion yuan has been invested in the Super League in the past decade and the coach of Beijing Hyundai is saying that much of it has been wasted. He's likely right.

    The cancer of corruption reaches deeply in China: it even touches such holy grails as football.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:29
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    The Games have begun

    While the antics of the Long Haired Lout dominated the headlines, there was something far more interesting going on yesterday at the first day of the new LegCo in Hong Kong. During the election of chairs of various committees, pro-democracy lawmaker Emily Lau won chair of the key Finance Committee in a surprise victory. How did this come about when the democrats are supposedly a minority? Because suddenly the Breakfast Group, a loose alliance of 6 legislators, have realised they now hold the balance of power. While Mr. Huff and Puff will have his fans, the main game has certainly changed and will pass him and his slogans by. Even pro-Beijing business business is getting in on the act: the SCMP reports the HK Chamber of Commerce wants an explicit timetable to full democracy and wants the Government to acknowledge that 2012 is the target date for universal suffrage.

    Could it be that despite Beijing's best efforts Hong Kong could actually have a LegCo with a majority of democrats after all?

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:00
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    October 06, 2004
    Memory and loss

    Cable TV is reporting that DBS, the bank that robbed itself, is going to offer a minimum of HK$100,000 compensation for each box holder. Now I think about it, I had a safety deposit box there. Yep, that's right. It had lots of old and hard to value jewellery in it, and mounds of cash to boot. This is better than the lottery...

    In even better news, Long Hair Leung lost his stupid attempt to use his own oath of office in being sworn into LegCo. Justice Hartmann of the High Court was to the point, according to the SCMP:

    "(Mr Leung) has not been able to demonstrate an arguable case ... the intended oath, no matter how laudable, will be unlawful and will have no effect."
    No doubt he will have still attempted some kind of grandstanding gesture at the ceremony today. As expected, he has gone from making a mockery of LegCo to making a mockery of himself. I still stand by my prediction that he won't be a LegCo member within 6 months. It's looking conservative. UPDATE Having just watched the footage of Leung taking the oath, perhaps I was wrong. He dutifully read the correct oath before screaming his own addition. So perhaps his slow metamorphasis has begun.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 17:50
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    Laws of linkage

    I've been reading the round-up of reaction to the Vice Presidential debate at The Moderate Voice (via Dean) and Allah's, both impressive efforts. Knowing how much work goes into link-fests, it is even more impressive and a great way to quickly summarise the general reaction (which in this case appears to be mixed) to the debate. But it has lead me to formalise something I've been thinking about for a while, which I now dub the Law of Linkage:

    The value of any one link in a post is inversely proportional to the total number of links in that post.
    For example, if there is only one link in a post, then that link is extremely likely to be followed by interested readers. If there are 10 posts, the chances of jumping to the links are significantly decreased, because if you start following the links you're going to lose the gist of the original post. I admit that on occasion you can find yourself jumping from link to link in random fashion, but usually you're at a particular site because you want to read that site, not others. Obviously if the link is a key part of that post (e.g. an entry reaction to a post at another blog) the chance is that link will be followed; but again the chances are that will be the only link in the post.

    When it comes to link-fests there's a second law as well:

    The likelihood of any one link being clicked in a post decreases with each additional link that precedes it.
    In other words you may even follow the first few links in such a post, but you're not going to be spend hours following them all. In that case the ones at the start are far more likely to be followed than those below (with the possible exception of links at the very end of a post).

    These are issues I've been conscious of in constructing the regular Asia by Blog series. It comes down to weighing up being comprehensive to being practical. Going forward I am going to restrict the number of links in each edition in order to make each link more "valuable", albeit not at the expense of providing appropriate coverage. Thoughts welcomed.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:32
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    Trading places

    There's another sign that property is hot again in HK: this is my second entry on the topic in two days (the first was on the new bubble). Jake van der Kamp in the SCMP notes an interesting discrepency opening up in Hong Kong's property market. Prices of larger flats (those over 1700 sq feet) have seen outsized gains compared to smaller ones. The chart is in the extended entry for your perusal. In 1990 the prices of all flats moved approximately in tandem. Since then and particularly in the past year or so the gap between the bigger and smaller flats has grown - they still move up and down together, but the spread between them grows ever larger. Larger flats are now 3 times the per square foot price of the smallest ones, a massive gap. As van der Kamp points out, these are average figures. He dismisses the value of premium flats because of this, however especially in a rising market, the top end of the premium market is going to drag the average of that class higher still. Nevertheless his main point remains valid.

    More interestingly is his question as to why this should be so. The second chart shows that Hong Kong has become a much wealthier place in the past 20 years; real per capita GDP has doubled in that time to US$24,000 per person. At the same time the average usable size of new private flats has actually declined slightly. Today the average size of new flats sold in HK is 370 sq feet of usable area. People with US$24,000 each of economic value do not want to live in flats no bigger than a closet.

    Who is to blame? I would have thought it was the property developers whom insist on building such tiny places. But apparently not. It is the planning regulators that decide the size of units in each approved development. So civil servants, many of whom no doubt live in substantially larger units than this 370 sq foot average, determine that Hong Kongers must continue to live in tiny flats. Because that's how things have always been done. Perhaps if these civil servants were made to actually live in the apartments they approve, things would be different. In the interim the market has found its own solution: the price of bigger flats is going up faster than those of smaller ones. With the long lead times on new property developments, the planners need to start approving larger flats fast, or they'll have a middle-class riot on there hands when the price of bigger places becomes completely out of reach.

    hkpropertysizechart.jpg



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:51
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    Waste not

    China's rapid economic growth is putting a squeeze on resources, including water. At the same time as it grows wealthier there has been an explosion of car ownsership. So naturally combnie the two and you get the very best of Chinese ingenuity: the 300mL car wash. If they could only figure how to make the cars run on 300mL of petrol, everyone would be happy. Well, except some Middle East despots.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 15:10
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    It's all happening

    There's plenty of interesting Korea news at the moment and it can't wait for the next Asia by Blog.

    Marmot comprehensively covers reports that China would send up to 400,000 troops to support North Korea in a war, including the US plan that called for almost 700,000 American troops within 90 days in the event of a conflict. I'm tipping that now wouldn't be such a good time then. Interestingly America has agreed to delay its troop withdrawal by 3 years, to give Seoul more time to prepare. Perhaps because the latest reports are that Seoul would fall to North Korea within 15 days without US troops. Ironically at the same time there is a report on a secret South Korean plan for dealing with the collapse of North Korea, including accomodating 200,000 defectors. While I'm writing this I'm watching the end of the US Vice Presidential debate. Asia, home to one third of the Axis of Evil, has not been mentioned.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:34
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    Movie idea

    Movies get re-made all the time, with adaptions to their new audiences. Personally I'd like to see Green Card redone with Chinese characteristics. Casting suggestions welcomed.

    show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:08
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    Slow steps

    China has made a great deal of noise about clamping down on corruption amongst the ranks. One of the steps was to publish the report of the State Audit Office, which exposed upward of 4 billion yuan of embezzled funds and caused 600 cadres to lose their jobs. Now China News Weekly reports only 12 of 41 central government units and 5 of 21 provincial ones have done anything about it. In other words, a few have been punished and now it's business as usual. Another example of lip service. Until China publicly and systematically goes about uprooting corruption, all the public pronouncements aren't worth the paper they're written on.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:55
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    Command and control

    China has been desperately trying to engineer a "soft landing" for its economy after growth approached unsustainable levels in the past year or so. At first they used market based mechanisms to achieve this, for example by increasing bank reserve requirements (which should have restricted lending). This didn't work. So they moved onto more direct tools, for example the Government started restricting lending to particular sectors by diktat.

    But now there are fears the efforts have been overdone and in fact will backfire. The Standard quotes economist Andy Xie:

    "The world is sitting atop the biggest property bubble in history, with the biggest exposure in China and the US, in my view,'' he said.

    If the bubble's origin is super-loose United States monetary policy, which has sent waves of cheap cash sloshing round world markets, China has made matters worse by refusing to raise interest rates in line with inflation, he said.

    Deposits pay 1.98 per cent a year, well below inflation of 5.3 per cent, spurring more people to put savings into property as a hedge against inflation, which is already being fuelled by speculative real estate purchases from overseas Chinese.

    The SCMP also reports the Chinese authorities are now scapping the previous restrictions. While still keeping tight control over money and land supply, the administrative restrictions on lending to certain sectors will be removed. Why? Because the measures were too effective: lending completely stopped for the most part in sectors such as steel, aliminium, cement, property development and car manufacturing. That's the problem with regulations rather than price based mechanisms in an economy.

    Even more interesting is the role of black market financing in China. From the same article mentioned above:

    Informal financing is a staple in entrepreneurial corners of China where many resort to banks only for large sums. Citigroup's Huang Yiping puts the size of the informal capital market in Wenzhou at 200 billion yuan (HK$188.46 billion), exceeding the 180 billion yuan in deposits lodged with commercial banks.

    Economists say interest rates on the kerb market in places like Wenzhou has risen to around 15 per cent.

    So where price based mechanisms work, interest rates are high. Real (ie after inflation) interest rates are negative based on the official figures. This means depositing money in the bank actually penalises you, because your deposits lose value in real terms. So inevitably the money flows to other asset classes, which in China basically means property. That is the basis of the fears of a property bubble, much the same as in Hong Kong.

    In any economy the key in monetary policy is not the nominal interest rate level, but real interest rates. Negative real rates are appropriate when an economy is in recession and needs a monetary stimulus. They are not appropriate when the economy is growing at 9.6% per annum and investment is growing at 15% per annum. Yet China's authorities still refuse to raise official interest rates. With China's households being massive net savers, the wall of money will continue to flow to more speculative sectors until such time as they feel they can get an appropriate return on their money. It's a disaster in the making and it needn't be that way. But China's authorities need to gain confidence in price based economic tools, and raising rates would be a good start.



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:36
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    Locked in the vault

    Hong Kong's papers are all covering the biggest story to hit the town since a rogue crocodile: the demolition of 83 safe deposit boxes at a branch of DBS Bank in Mei Foo. The SCMP attempted to reach the contractor renovating the branch, end(ing) with an office staff member refusing to accept calls and hanging up the phone. Now the problems really start. By their nature the contents of those boxes is private. So how will DBS go about compensating the aggrieved box holders? Does it simply take their claims at face value? It's one hell of a mess.

    I imagine HK's Inland Revenue Department will be helping the aggrieved box holders with their claims.

    Also check out Phil and Chris.

    UPDATE: Hemlock (Wed, Oct 6 entry) sees even more sinister undertones:

    For decades, Singapore’s proprietor Lee Kwan-yew has plundered his subjects’ wealth by diverting their savings into a provident fund that invests in state-owned losers – sunset industries and cosseted corporations, like Deposit Box Scrapper itself. Could it be that the Lion City is now ransacking the Big Lychee’s private hoards in a desperate attempt to maintain its despotic regime, with its elaborate and costly security apparatus of public speaking permits, chewing gum detection devices and rattan canes? No other explanation makes sense. How despicable.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 09:59
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    October 05, 2004
    Natural blogging

    Michele eloquently and accurately pops the latest blogging bubble. Her premise is simple: that the very moment blogging is getting wide exposure, blogging is also reaching a low point. While I agree with her sentiments I can see a silver lining in the current clouds.

    At least some blogs are mutating into quasi-journalists, hunting for scoops and trying to break news as a direct result of the success of the Rathergate (what a horrid name; it's such a cliché to add "-gate" to any controversy. Surely the blogosphere could have come up with some better?) and the large spike in traffic that resulted. The emergence of advertising on blogs and the rush of such exposure has turned some blogs into "scoop junkies".. This inevitably leads to pressure to break the next big story. But just like Big Media, news isn't like that. There are occasional big stories separate by the more humdrum and mundane. Sometimes several big stories break at once, but then there are periods of relative "quiet".

    Some bloggers whom have hit upon the idea they may be journalists may be right. As is so common, whereas initially the blogging medium was composed mostly of generalists, we are now seeing the rapid specialisation by some blogs. This narrowed focus creates blog experts in particular fields and allows readers to jump immediately to certain nodal blogs for information on particular subjects. This is, I think, what Michele is lamenting. But specialists are following their interests and their traffic. The rewards (either financial, in readership or otherwise) are there for those that follow their focus. Yet there is still room for generalist blogs, although their popularity may suffer. Every day there are more blogs, there is more to read and yet God dictates there are only 24 hours in each day. You could compare the changes in the blogosphere to the general pattern of evolution - a combination of survival of the fittest and the best adapted. Generalists retain their niche and specialists find theirs, all coming together in a "blogosystem".

    However at times the output of the blogosystem as a whole can disappoint readers, particularly long time ones. Blogs change over time as the interests of the author(s); some blogs that are now branching into journalism are a case in point. Along the way they will lose some readers and gain others. It is part of the constant process of change in the evolving life of each blog within the blogosystem. Just as the blogosystem as a whole evolves, so do the blogs within it. I share Michele's disappointment that some previously favourite sites have changed for ways I consider less interesting. But thankfully there are plenty of others out there to take up the slack. Another analogy is a marketplace. Stores change their wares to capture new or different customers or enhance their profits. Some older customers don't like the changes and have to find new stores to replace them. It's a pain in the backside, especially after finding a set that you like and can rely on. But eventually you find others to take their place. The stores (blogs) follow their self-interest and the shoppers (readers) follow theirs, and Adam Smith's Invisible Hand creates something greater. It's laissez-faire capitalism in action.

    Longer time readers will note that the weekly "Enemablog" feature, where I summarised some of my favourite links of the week from around the blogosphere. It was for a simple reason: each week there was less and less I thought interesting or worthy enough to link to. I understand the intensity of the coverage of the US election; the importance of breaking the Rather story; and the other top stories floating around at the moment. They bore me to tears. The constant incestual linking between certain blogs is danger of becoming a constant cycle of mutual admiration to the exclusion of anything interesting. There seems to be so many more important things in the world worth talking about: Darfur, Iraq, events all over Asia. But if my previously favourite blogs choose to focus on things that no longer interest me, then that is fine. I'll simply move on to those that do. Like Michele. Or Joe. Or Dean. Or Helen. Or any one of the other blogs on my blogrolls. Time and content permitting, I'll bring that weekly feature back once I start seeing links again worth hanging on to.

    We bloggers and blog readers have a choice. Thank God for the blogosystem's diversity.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:45
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    Repeating history

    Suddenly property in Hong Kong is hot again. The number of transactions jumped by 26% in September from the previous month, and the value of transactions jumped by 34% from August. Year on year the jump in value is a massive 75%. Suddenly all the usual suspects, from real estate agents to property developers, are signalling the boom times are here again. The SCMP reports on a record price for a Mid Levels apartment of more than US$3,500 per square foot. Factors driving this include improved economic outlook, new development launches and the 95 per cent mortgage introduced by the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation in July and of course speculation. Indeed analysts generally believe that in the mass housing market prices will rise by 10 to 30 per cent next year.

    There's one problem. Rents are not rising anywhere near as fast, if at all. What does that matter? Well just like a share reflects the present value of all future dividends so a property price should represent the present value of its rental income (either real or implied). If these rents are unchanged, and that is what the economic data is saying, then rising property prices indicate one of two things. Either investors are prepared to accept a lower return on their investment - this could be possible, but unlikely; or a this is a typical case of excess liquidity spilling over into asset price inflation.

    You would have thought Hong Kong learnt the lessons of the 1997 Asia crisis and the subsequent property bust that caused years of economic malaise and deflation. But when a city's financial system is built on speculation, you can only keep animal spirits repressed for so long. In other words, here we go again.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:13
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    Grabbing the chance

    This morning I went to the Australian Consulate here in Hong Kong and voted. The whole process took less than 5 minutes; there were no hoardes of desperate politico types shoving wads of waste paper ("how to vote" leaflets) into my hands and exorting me to vote for Labor/Liberal/Democrats/Greens/No GST/Fishing/Lower Beer Excise/Family First (all real parties); no waiting in lines and all during work time.

    Hong Kong is missing a massive tourism opportunity.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:43
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    Changes in EPL

    Manchester United is being taken over by an American. What hasn't been reported is Malcolm Glazer's plans for the future of the club. I have it on good authority he plans to suggest a few changes to increase the appeal of English Premier League and soccer in general.

    Firstly Man U will be renamed the Manchester Cowboys. There will now be an offensive and defensive teams, with numerous breaks so they can all run on and off the field at random times. Body armour will become compulsary for all players. In what will no doubt be a popular innovation, the Manchester Cowgirls will form a new cheer squad with the finest lasses the Mersey Irwell (see below) has to offer. Cigars will be handed out for free at all games but due to no-smoking rules they must only be chomped, not smoked.

    But most excitingly will be a new method of starting the game. In fact we have a photo of a helpful demonstration of this innovation:

    Senator Kerry demonstrates the new starting method of English Soccer:

    kerry2.jpg

    (Pic lifted from Rusty)

    UPDATE: Phil's right, it should be the River Irwell.



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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:07
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    October 04, 2004
    Asia by Blog

    Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Monday and Thursday, providing links to Asian blogs and their views on the news in this fascinating region. Please send me an email if you would like to be notified of new editions. Previous editions can be found here.

    Reminding you there's more to the world than two old white guys debating...

    Hong Kong, China and Taiwan

  • Tom discusses the possibility that China might start dumping their US dollar investments, with the inevitable "blame Bush" angle. Problem is where else will they go? The yuan is pegged only against the US dollar - it would be taking a hell of a gamble to start investing in Euros or even (perish the thought) Yen instead. China and Japan are hostages of their large US dollar holdings. Dumping them only hurts themselves.

  • The Qing dynasty also had an Idol show.

  • Could being anti-triad mean being anti-democracy? And what does Marx have to say about the Tiger of Jordan?

  • Adam has an open letter to Google. Would you rather not have Google News in China at all? (Jeremy agrees, as does the WSJ.)

  • The oil price is so high they're even singing about it.

  • Taiwan's looking at getting offensive weapons but Winston Marshall doesn't think it will change the strategic balance.

  • Jodi points out China celebrated National Day by speeding up its death machine.

  • There were riots in Spain last week over Chinese shoes.

  • Expect a new flurry of old stories about China.

  • Get an inside look at what China's NPC delegates are talking about.

  • The authors of the now banned Study of Chinese Peasants have just won a major European prize.
  • Korea and Japan

  • The Canadians haven't stuffed up the North Korean hostage situation, yet. ACB has plenty more on the situation.

  • The wrong people have remembered South Korea.

  • Marmot has more reactions on the passing of the North Korean Human Rights Act in the US. And Matthew Stinsons' Hollywood analogy of North Korea exposes the futility of the South's Sunshine Policy. For an interesting contrary view on living in North Korea, try Part 1 and Part 2 at Dog Stew.

  • John Kerry hasn't ruled out pre-emptive North Korean strikes; he's kept the same position on the subject: the wrong one. Andy says the 6 party talks are the only game worth playing. Kevin also questions if President Kerry would be up to the task now Bush has sent the US Navy to patrol the Sea of Japan? Joshua explains clearly why there is bipartisan hatred of Kim Jong-Il in America to the misguided people at OhMyNews. Shape of Days wonders how China would react to the Kerry plan?

  • Following up on his earlier post on what to do about North Korea, Power Politics addresses some other proposals.

  • The Bank of Japan has quietly bought out the private sector banks' share portfolios. So now the BoJ are punting shares, rather than the banks. Doesn't really solve the problem, does it? Also Joe has a wrap-up of stories from Japan over the weekend.

  • One Japanese export made good in America.

  • The future is here for school kids in Japan. It sounds scary until you realise that mobile phones are extremely effective personal locators as well.

  • Japan's cops can't cope. Thank God their crime rate is so low or they'd be in real trouble.
  • SE and Other Asia

  • Brunei is imitating Hong Kong: votes that mean nothing.

  • John Berthelsen argues that Philippines foreign worker remittances makes the Philippine Government lazy.

  • There's gold I tells ya, gold!

  • Jeff Ooi is fighting back against a front page attack.

  • Mr Brown gets involved in the pi-sai debacle. And via Mr Brown, I discovered the egg is near for Singapore.

  • Is Pakistan preparing for the famed October surprise?
  • Miscellany

  • When you've finished here, go have a look at what the rest of the world is blogging about.

  • Rajan asks that age old question that puzzles so many in Asia.

  • Spirit Fingers is doing the police's job for them.

  • They're good enough to die, but not good enough to be British.

  • Heartbreak for Adam.

  • Lost Nomad discovers why Asians are better at maths.
  • show comments right here »

    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 16:40
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    Property deals

    The British have much to answer for. It seems they don't even understand the basics of property, such as giving land back to the people you took it from, rather than someone else. Now the good people of Sulu in the southern Philippines are again pushing their territorial claims to Sabah, now a province of Malaysia. But even worse was the deal the British negotiated. Malaysia's Government pays annual rent of RM5,000 (about US$1,300) to the Sultan of Sulu as compensation. The payment of rent implies the land is still properly belonging to the Sultan of Sulu, even if the land itself is rented in perpetuity. What exactly have the British done for the world?

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 13:13
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    Only in hong Kong part 392

    The SCMP reports on a plan that only Hong Kong can love:

    Hundreds of trees near the Stanley waterfront will be chopped down to make way for Hong Kong's first garden park in a bid to boost tourism. The 48,477-square-metre site, bordered by historic Murray House, Ma Hang Estate and Cape Road, will be cleared under the Housing Authority plan...

    The park will have two sections. Two-thirds of the site will be turned into a public park, with a hiking trail, nature education path and playgrounds. The rest of the site will become the horticultural park, which will feature different types of Chinese-style plantings. Visitors will be charged to enter.

    Knocking down trees to make a park. It's actually quite funny, but inevitable all the same.

    UPDATE: What Phil said.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:31
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    G7

    China has taken to imitating Groucho Marx in expressing a complete lack of interest in joining the G7 anytime soon. Why would they bother? Sure it's nice to sit and chew the fat with some of the big boys, and sure China is now the seventh biggest economy in the world (and growing rapidly to boot), but to go and listen to everyone lecturing you that you need to loosen your exchange rate every year is a bit much. The G7 has ceased to be an effective talking shop years ago.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:27
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    That's what Daddy does

    The Hong Kong Jockey Club has taken a leaf out of the Big Tobacco school of addiction and had a family day out at Sha Tin yesterday. Typically anti-gambling groups have protested the day, criticising the Jockey Club's excuse that it was a day for families to celebrate China's National Day by correctly pointing out the races were held 2 days after the said day.

    Nevertheless I wholeheartedly endorse the HK Jockey Club's move. Firstly it's great for the kids to see where Mummy and especially Daddy are pissing their hard-earned dollars instead of investing in their children's education and future. Secondly given the HK Jockey Club is effectively also Hong Kong's social welfare agency and white elephant creator, the little 'uns may as well give something back to to Hong Kong. Can't be selfish and all. Thirdly it could be worse: they could be forced to go watch executions instead (thanks Enzo for the tip). Lastly I'd much rather they were out at Sha Tin rather than swarming over Ocean Park with the millions of Mainlanders whom descended upon the place yesterday. Why you would build a huge fun park on the side of a mountain without ramps for, say, strollers, beats me. But it was built with a kind donation from the Jockey Club*.

    Thanks kids.

    * As compared to HK Disneyland, which has chewed up over US$4 billion of HK Government money.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:16
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    October 01, 2004
    Visit these fine folks

    Time for a look at the top referrers for September. Thanks for the traffic from everyone who visited and linked. The winners are:

    Instapundit
    Tim Blair
    Winds of Change
    Gweilo Diaries
    Marmot
    Brainysmurf
    Shaky Kaiser
    Hemlock
    Politburo Diktat
    My Pet Jawa

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 13:54
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    Turning their back, again

    Hong Kongers have great experience with Mother Britain turning its back on its erstwhile colonials. In the lead-up to 1997 and with overblown fears of hoardes of wealthy Hong Kongers fleeing to London and Liverpool, the UK came up with a wheeze to deny HKers British citizenship. Instead they offered ersatz passports called British National Overseas, which are passports without citizenship. It was a disgusting episode by the British and a funny way to say thank you to one of its more successful colonies.

    And now they are doing it again. The Nepalese Ghurkas, considered good enough to join the British army and risk life and limb for the Queen, have until now been denied citizenship by the British. Tony Blair has given in to immense pressure and now allowed Ghurkas whom have served in the British armed forces the right to citizenship. With a catch. The law will apply only to those demobilised after July 1, 1997. Not co-incidently, this is the day that Hong Kong was handed back to China. To see why, we need to go over some history:

    The Gurkhas have served in the British army since 1815 when they impressed officers with their valiant defence against British invasion.

    The brigade was transferred to Hong Kong from Malaysia in the 1970s to help quell Chinese-communist fomented political unrest. Some 7,500 were stationed here in 1997, but ahead of the handover Britain trimmed to brigade's numbers by some 5,000, the rest being redeployed around the world.

    About half those demobbed remained in the city, taking advantage of the Beijing-backed government's offer of right of abode.

    A far more comprehensive history is here. At the time of the handover many had been demobilised. It is an exact repeat of the short-sightedness that clouded the Home Office's vision in the lead up to the handover with Hong Kongers. There will not be hoardes of Ghurkas suddenly upping sticks and moving to England. And even if they did, the UK should welcome them with open arms and say thank you for everything you did for us. Instead we have another example of British xenophobia masked as a "prudent" decision. It is disgusting and demeans the UK.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 12:52
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    Reason 367 to stop watching HK TV

    The SCMP:

    The national anthem and a video featuring diving star Guo Jingjing and astronaut Yang Liwei will be broadcast on Hong Kong's Chinese-language television stations every night from today in an attempt to boost people's patriotism.
    I hadn't realised that CCTV had taken over Pearl and Jade - missed that one in the business pages. It might be a slight improvement over the inane Announcements of Public Interest (APIs) that dominate the airwaves, but only just.

    It is a great irony that while Hong Kong is home to some of the best and cheapest TVs in the world, there's absolutely nothing to watch on them at all.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 11:05
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    Is it time to panic yet?

    Maybe. I don't know why bird flu hasn't been getting much attention yet. Thankfully Thailand is taking the threat seriously and China and others are stepping up their prevention methods. Perhaps some of the lessons of SARS have been learnt after all.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:39
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    Who I won't be voting for

    After my detailed and careful reasoning on how I'm going to vote in Australia's election, Kolya sends me a good reason to reconsider:

    Right wing Australian Christian political party Family First wants an annual levy of $7 to $10 on all internet users in Australia to fund a $45 million mandatory national internet filtering scheme aimed at blocking pornographic and offensive content at server level...Great firewall of Australia, here we come!
    The good people from the China firewall department would love to help, I'm sure.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:26
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    Reason number 492 to stop subscribing to the SCMP

    Due to a contractual dispute, they've just stopped publishing the Alex cartoon in the business section. On the plus side Jake van der Kamp nicely fisks James Tien of the Liberal Party today. He is now the only reason to buy that paper.

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    [boomerang] Posted by Simon at 10:20
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