October 20, 2004
John Zogby on the US Election
Last night John Zogby of the eponymous polling firm gave a talk in Hong Kong on the state of the current election. His speech covered a wide number of topics and thoughts on the election. Zogby himself is a Democrat but takes pains to eliminate bias from his surveys. He also had a few words about his polling rivals, especially Gallup.
Plus plenty more. All below the fold...
Update: Welcome to the many new readers to this site. Please have a look around at the rest of the blog, which concerntrates mostly on Asian and especially China related news and views. I also have a twice weekly Asian blogging roundup, the most recent edition of which can be found here and previous editions here.
NOTE: these are the views of John Zogby, with my occasional $0.02 thrown in. For the most part they are in the order he spoke, with some cutting and pasting where similar topics were discussed.
The Christian Conservative Myth
Red vs. Blue
The Missing Centre
The mobile phone question
Differences between polls
Asia in the election
Internet, blogs and the election
Zogby: "Polling is 80% science and 20% art."
Zogby: "The race is Kerry's to lose" (although others see it the other way around).
My thoughts: Zogby has an obvious personal bias to Democrats but I take him at face value when he says his research is impartial. His speculation that the race is Kerry's to lose didn't convince me, but nor do I buy that it is Bush's to lose either. I think the struggle for both candidates now is to go and win the race. Otherwise his thoughts on the missing centre certainly make sense and gel with my impressions of American politics (admittedly from afar). The small amount of undecideds are the key battleground, but I'm not sure they will break for Kerry in the numbers Zogby expects, especially given the reluctance of many to change Presidents during times of war. What is clear is unless the margin is reasonable, which is unlikely, there's going to be one hell of a mess.posted by Simon on 10.20.04 at 03:07 PM in the
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Simon polls Zogby
Excerpt: Our man in HK, Simon, attended a talk by pollster John Zogby - and his after action report is filled with some interesting material, and some good observations - even if he does spell 'center' in that odd, psuedo-Brit sort...
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Tracked: October 20, 2004 07:12 PM
John Zogby on Polling
Excerpt: Blogger Simon of Simon World attended a lecture given by pollster John Zogby recently in Hong Kong. Topics covered - - The 4 million Christian Conservatives. - “The Armageddon Election” - Differences between red and blue states and the key...
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Tracked: October 20, 2004 07:27 PM
Now Set to Music
Excerpt: No my leftie trolls, this is not a "big deal," but can't you just lighten up and laugh at something every once in a while? It's even funnier when you visualize Dick Cheney in his place. For readers that demand...
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Tracked: October 20, 2004 08:23 PM
Zogby on the election
Excerpt: Simon has a good write-up on Zogby's comments on the elections. The interesting part was about the myth of the Christian conservative vote, I think Karl Rove and George Bush got it wrong here. Pan...
Weblog: Rajan Rishyakaran
Tracked: October 20, 2004 10:16 PM
John Zogby on Polling
Excerpt: In a further example of things in my life happening in "themes," I've found this post from Simon World summarizing a speech John Zogby gave on polling in the current election. John Zogby is someone I hadn't heard of until Dr. Tomlinson mentioned him in...
Tracked: October 21, 2004 12:54 AM
'Round The Web
Excerpt: Around the web this morning - first, a new entry on my left margin, Donkey Rising, which is the blog to read if you want to figure out what the polls really say, underneath the horserace. Then, some fun: via...
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Tracked: October 21, 2004 01:05 AM
What rough beast?
Excerpt: "Poll: Bush Doubles Support Among Blacks" (AP) resident Bush has doubled his support among blacks in four years and S...
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Tracked: October 21, 2004 01:08 AM
Zogby speaks on the 'Armageddon' election in Hong Kong
Excerpt: Simon was there and reports: Blogs: Zogby saw these as important, with each having its own constituency. However they are unlikely to change minds; instead "they serve to stoke the fires of anger." In other words, blogs are preaching to...
Weblog: The Jawa Report
Tracked: October 21, 2004 01:15 AM
Is there any chance that AZ can go Blue this Presidential Elections?
Excerpt: I know AZ is just about as Red a state as it can get. However, since my visit to Arizona during the third Presidential debate and upon insistence of one of my dearest of friends in AZ, I decided to dig a little deeper and see if there really was any c...
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Tracked: October 21, 2004 02:28 AM
The 10 Spot - Around The World Edition
Excerpt: Ten things you might not have seen on the Internets... Simon of Simon World has a very interesting recap of pollster John Zogby's lecture to a Hong Kong audience. A view of the Red Sox - Yankees series from Iraq....
Tracked: October 21, 2004 03:59 AM
Propaganda Can Be Counterproductive.
Excerpt: And so can be idiocy. I wonder how many Democrats feel this way: I'm one U.S. voter who's never voted Republican for president, but now I'm torn between voting actively against the disgusting "industrial strength" wackos like Ted or leaving...
Weblog: Silent Running
Tracked: October 21, 2004 04:30 AM
Simon World blogs Zogby's Hong Kong talk
Excerpt: John Zogby thinks the race is still Kerry's to lose. Simon disagrees but finds many of Zogby's insights compelling. Here are a few that struck me: Red vs. Blue This election is a repeat of 2000 in many ways,...
Tracked: October 21, 2004 05:17 AM
West eats meat
Excerpt: Simon had a long talk to U.S. pollster John Zogby last night and has an interesting record of conversation available....
Weblog: The Road to Surfdom
Tracked: October 21, 2004 12:02 PM
JFK vs GWB: it's close as hell
Excerpt: "If you know what time the Washington Post puts up its tracking poll each day", says Tim Grieve, "you need to admit that you have a problem." If you too are an addict who must know how to read the...
Weblog: Back Pages
Tracked: October 21, 2004 02:13 PM
Simon's E. Asia Briefing: 2004-10-27
Excerpt: The following is a digest of highlights from the past month's Asia by Blog series over at simonworld.mu.nu. The round-up has four key areas of focus: China, Taiwan & Hong Kong (Politics, Economy & lifestyle, History sport & culture, Information), Korea...
Weblog: Winds of Change.NET
Tracked: October 27, 2004 10:07 AM
Infidel's Choice (Part 1)
Excerpt: The election is not just a horse race, but a snapshot of American political culture. Stratfor's George Friedman, in "The U.S. Presidential Election: On Its Own Terms" (Subscription-Required), in an email supplement, sets the field: This year, the Democ...
Tracked: November 1, 2004 07:55 PM
Interesting stuff!posted by: Chris on 10.20.04 at 09:10 PM [permalink]
Very compelling notes! I've just added you to my favorites. :Dposted by: Matt Warren on 10.21.04 at 12:46 AM [permalink]
Well done. I live in Illinois (not a swing state, unfortunately), and I'm sure a lot of Americans will find this support very useful. Thanks.posted by: MDS on 10.21.04 at 12:48 AM [permalink]
I can't argue with most of his points and his polling had been excellent before this year, when he changed his process. However, this is is downfall:
Many poll watchers believe that Zogby is way off here, and have observed a significant shift to the right in party affiliation over the years. That means that Zogby is overweighting Democrats.
Did Zogby call Kerry unilateralist here, or did you?
Anywho, I know why the Dean machine died, and it did happen right in the Christmas/New Year's week.
I don't think Zogby understands the net. At least _I_ read all sides on the internet, including the fringes, which helps.
It's a lot harder to lie to all the people, all the time, now.
Nice effort.posted by: Josh Narins on 10.21.04 at 06:03 AM [permalink]
I also question Zogby's methodology in the area of party affiliations. If he is to maintain his magical balance between Republican and Democrat percentages, how does he do it exactly? If you truly contact people randomly, you won't know the percentages until you are done. You would then have to exclude certain responses to maintain the ratio you want. How do you pick who to exclude?
Just a random observation.posted by: Steve L. on 10.21.04 at 07:49 AM [permalink]
I've been involved in alot of volunteer organizations and the one thing that makes people show up is ANGER. Voting is a voluntary activity and my gut feeling is that people are more angry at Bush than they are at Kerry.
When was the last time this bozo was correct? When will he be right the first time? If he can keep a straight face while claiming twice his margin of error doesn't matter, he needs to be on comdy central. My old stats professor made a point of saying that stats is for random events, not people. People have motives and they will lie to pollsters. Very little is random when humans are involved. And there is no way to correct for that. The entire point of polling is to make money for pollsters. Mr Zogby is very sucessful at that, despite never being correct.
Let me clarify a few things:
1. Zogby was the one who made the observation on Kerry/Bush positions on North Korea. I made the observation that this is the one time the two sides have switched approaches.
2. Zogby's assumption on party affiliation makes some sense to me: why would the number of voters identifying themselves as (say) Democrats fluctuate widely from poll to poll? It's different to whom they intend to vote for and it's a valid assumption to make; I can't see that people would switch sides so quickly or constantly.
3. Zogby's comments on blogs was in response to my question. I agree that it is a superficial view of bloggers; while some such as (say) Daily Kos may stoke the fires of hate (his words), others act as news sources, reasoned opinions or civilised discource. I know on some issues discussions have changed or influenced my views on matters. I think it was Keynes who said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"posted by: Simon on 10.21.04 at 12:21 PM [permalink]
A good job by Simon, however Zogby's numbers have been much more pro Kerry this year than the other major US polsters, although admitedly Zogby was one of the best in past elections. Like Dick Morris I believe EVENTS will be the key - will there be an attack in the US or will there be another DUI type news smear in the days before the vote? Time will tell!posted by: david on 10.21.04 at 01:19 PM [permalink]
i respect zogby a great deal. in 2000 all the polls had gore 4 - 8 points behind. not mr. zogby. his numbers were much closer and he got the popular vote for gore right. he can't be dismissed.posted by: tom conten on 10.21.04 at 05:25 PM [permalink]
Ableiter writes: "When was the last time this bozo was correct? When will he be right the first time?"
Well, actually, Zogby's numbers for both the 1996 and 2000 elections were more accurate than those from any other major pollster. So to dismiss him is to whistle past the graveyard. I also note that, in recent days, more and more of the national polls seem to be converging on Zogby's numbers, so he's hardly a voice in the wilderness here.
Additionally, as I recall, Zogby is a Republican.
Zogby's track record is very good, and as I look at state polls, as opposed to national numbers, I increasingly think Zogby is correct and that Kerry has an edge in this election. I say this, incidentally, as someone who will vote (albeit reluctantly) for Bush.posted by: Adam Hargandon on 10.21.04 at 05:30 PM [permalink]
Zogby is a liberal.posted by: Scott on 10.21.04 at 07:33 PM [permalink]
Perhaps it is not relevantbut Zogby's brother is the head of an Arab-American Activists group. Perhaps that is why his poll consistently is the most favorable for Kerry in its results.posted by: Bruce on 10.24.04 at 08:00 AM [permalink]
Well, it's well past 10/20/04 when this article was written. Today, 10/29/04 and the various polls are all over the place and Zogby is out of the variance of most.