October 11, 2004

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Australian election round-up

John Howard's thumping win on the weekend was always the most likely result. Labor's inept final week and especially its unnecessary deal with the Greens which cost it two seats in Tasmania, not to mention Mark Latham's limited time at the helm, all cost them. What is interesting is the solid position Howard now finds himself in, with control of the Senate to boot. For the first time in living memory an Australian leader actually as a solid mandate to push through with reforms without having them diluted by fringe parties in the Senate (goodbye, Democrats). When Democrat leader Andrew Bartlett calls this "a disaster for democracy", what he actually means is it is a disaster for his now impotent party. What it actually means is a party elected by the majority of the country can actually implement its program without a tiny minority forcing changes. Not since the 1970s has an Australian leader had such control over Parliament. That could be both a blessing and a curse, but now Howard has no excuses to avoid fulfilling the rest of his agenda.

Some are already saying that the war on terror didn't have much to do with the result, although some disagreed. The reality is the war on terror was an issue, but by no means a major one. This was partly because Australia was blessedly devoid of any terror in the lead up to the war, with the notable exception of the Jakarta bombings. This is a blessing that seems to have been missed in the aftermath of the election, and it helped keep the war on terror far from most voters' minds. What did influence people? Well perhaps that Australia has now had an unprecedented 15 year uninterrupted economic boom with no signs of it ending; that this Government has delivered a solid fiscal position by repaying debt and not dipping into deficit; that interest rates have been low and memories of the "recession we had to have" and its 18% mortgage rates still scare the bejeesus out of this nation of mortgage and credit-card holders; Howard's party had a solid track record and had done nothing particularly wrong on the domestic front since assuming power; that Howard still has policies and reforms to implement; and even that Australia's winning ways continue in more ways than one. Against one of Australia's most formidable politicians Labor fielded a leader whom did not have enough time to shake of his past reputation and mould himself into a potential Prime Minister nor to acquaint people with his policies. They compounded their errors by downplaying legitimate criticisms and policies and instead pandering. And therein lies the lesson of those in America: the incumbent holds far more advantages than is often given credit for, and the issues that influence the voter in the booth may differ greatly from those that dominate the headlines and amongst the politicos. In other words this result tells you that as things stand Bush has a far stronger chance of being re-elected should the polls appear to be even on polling day.

So what is the rest of the blogosphere saying about all of this?

* For an excellent and detailed look at the results, go to the excellent Poll Bludger and just keep scrolling.
* Tim Blair has rediscovered his love for his country. He links to two decent pieces of media punditry.
* The Currency Lad has a comprehensive look at the issues and where the election was won and lost.
* Ken Parish wonders if Howard and his team can exercise wisdom and restraint in victory. Which begs the question whether Latham and co. would have managed the same? As I said above, Howard has a complete mandate for the first time in 25 years; why should he "restrain" himself? The voters have just given him a solid mandate to implement his policies. He doesn't need to hold back.
* Tony has found another winner on the night.
* Tim Dunlop cops it sweet and also notes that despite his expectations, the undecideds tended to break for the incumbent.
* There's already a plan for Labor's next campaign.
* John Quiggin's post-mortem begins with this gem: First, I have to concede immediately that the betting markets got this one right. Unlike polls and pundits, including me, they consistently predicted the return of the government. People who put their money up tend to put their emotions aside and concentrate more on the likely result. He then puts Howard's victory down to luck, conceding Howard's luck has lasted longer than most. The old adage says "you make your own luck", but for some on the left admitting that Howard is a good politician who beat them fair and square is going to prove impossible. And that's why the Liberals will start favourites the next time as well - because Labor has not yet had the necessary reckoning in facing up to its failures.
* Mike points out in the comments to Vodkapundit this gem from Steven den Beste: They didn't let us down. Let's hope we don't let them down.
* John Ray maintains Labor lost because they remain too far to the left of Australia's mainstream. The Gnu Hunter also lists the reasons why Labor blew it.
* There's a new superhero in town.
* How can Labor get it so wrong, so often? asks the cabbie that knows.
* Slatts has a collection of letters celebrating the win in the pages of the press.
* The Swanker echoes what is no doubt true for many Labor supporters: For my own part, I am disappointed that Labor had such a poor showing, but in all honesty I have not done too badly under a Howard Government. In other words it's the Claytons win: the win you have when you're not having a win.
* Yobbo's got a Death Pool tip.
* Arthur had a long and interesting look at the result, including his view from "on the ground".
* The Raw Prawn also rounds-up the results.
* Kev Gillett's happy and the Professor is channeling rock 'n roll.
* Whacking Day has more reactions from the politicians and some who aren't taking the news well.
* The Silent Running crew are not rubbing it in...too much. Tom Paine prepares for the left's bloodletting.
* On the international front: Wretchard reflects on the lessons Labor can learn and why a "common man" like Howard (or Bush) resonates with voters; Joe Katzman sees Australia remaining a steadfast US ally; Glenn on the spin that might have been; B5 rubbishes the notion the election was about Iraq, but hopes it's the start of a roll as does Powerline and Roger L Simon.

Finally, lest we forget, another important election happened this weekend as well.

posted by Simon on 10.11.04 at 11:22 AM in the




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Aussie Voters Back Power
Excerpt: The Economist and Chrenkoff draw some useful lessons for the American general elections on November 2 from the Australian poll on October 9. First, The Economist paints Prime Minister John Howard's successful bid for a third term as the triumph...
Weblog: Duophony
Tracked: October 12, 2004 03:11 PM


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