The goodbye 2005 edition (although 2006 will be a second late)...

• A prominent Chinese lawyer's diary of his surveillance.
• Sun Bin reflects further on China closing the economic gap with the developed world.
• The latest Japan/China spat over a diplomat's suicide.
• Xinhua gives you the official top 10 news stories in China in 2005. Incredibly, there's no mention of Super Girl, the Taishi riots or the anti-Japan protests.
• Chinese kid art.
• What the BBC's China Week in March reflected about British (and Western) fears about China.
• Real time propaganda and anti-corruption songs.
• China's high householding savings are a reflection of weakness, not strength.
• A civil exchange on Yasukuni.

And finally, let's finish 2005 on a bright (pink) note:

• Hello Kitty iPod covers.

Wishing you all a happy, prosperous and successful 2006.

China winning war on Internet pornography, proclaims the China Daily. Almost 600 sites have been shut by the end of November. But all is not well in Pleasantville:

"Due to the specialized nature of Internet technology, there are still some places where pornography exists," he added. "Harmful information on overseas sites can still be transmitted internally, and a minority of people try to use the Web to carry out illegal activities."

Xinhua.

A couple of samplers:

1. Luring Bikini girls in movies.

2. Jennifer Lopez on the beach.

3. Anything from the "Entertainment" section of the website.

Stephen Vines in The Standard sympathises with Donald Tsang during his "duty visit" to Beijing, explaining how this yearly ritual follows closely what has always happened for Hong Kong's rulers. The difference in Beijing insists on doing the assessments in public:

surely there's a less humiliating way of conducting relations between the central government and the SAR. Schoolchildren might expect to have their report cards made public - although even this is frowned upon these days - but heads of government should be treated better.

However, this is unlikely to happen within a system that maintains the old Chinese imperial principle of tremble and obey. The leaders in Beijing keep their grip on their vast empire not by being nice or by conceding liberal doses of devolved power, but by making it absolutely clear that all real power resides at the center, and that the center not only manipulates the levers of control but does so in full public view.

The other stark contrast is between Hong Kong and Macau. Macau's Chief, Edmund Ho, is and has remained Beijing's darling. Ho has turned Macau from a sleazy den of vice and gambling into a modern den of vice and gambling, embracing the gift of a gambling monopoly from his Beijing masters. The Macanese never expected democracy in their future and their previous colonial masters, the Portugese, never toyed with such ideas. Running a colony a fraction of the size of Hong Kong is, funnily enough, a fraction as difficult. But my sympathies today lie with the people of Macau, especially those near the grand opening of Fisherman's Wharf:

...singer Francis Yip and American soft-rock group Chicago, both top acts of the 1970s, will officially inaugurate the project by performing their signature songs for free on New Year's Eve in the complex's Roman amphitheater as part of a program to include fireworks and a show by a British acrobatic troupe.

A rather interesting forecast highlighted in the People's Daily Online today about how China is set to import US$4 trillion over the next five years from abroad. The forecast, by well-known Qinghua University economist Hu Angang, expects that that order of import requirements will create 80 million jobs abroad.

A helpful perspective for people that only believe that China is taking jobs away. Here is the other side of the equation.

Be good for Oz, eh, Simon?

Another fascinating article from David Barboza of the New York Times (free subscription site). It is about a man that could soon become the country's richest - he's in real estate, runs the Shimao Group, and his name is Xu Rongmao. He has US$9 billion in projects, is due to complete 145 million suare feet in real estate by 2010 and - he used to be a factory textiles worker.

The article paints a picture of the heady wealth that some men have achieved from lowly positions - factory worker, truck driver. It also demonstrates how little these men want to share how they achieved their wealth, for fear of government investigations or reprisal. Contemporaries though, pay Mr. Xu great homage for his vision and foresight.

Imagine how different Australia or America would be if all of its tycoons were rags-to-riches stories - pondering the meaning of it on society is a fascinating exercise.

Read a fascinating pair of articles today from the New York Times (free registration site). This first one is about how Viacom's Nickelodeon, the children's cable TV network, is targeting the children of China is fun, irreverent rogramming that dispenses with dogmatic messages about how to behave. Great strategy - will the parents and the government like it? A quote from the article:

Viacom already has a 24-hour MTV channel in southern Guangdong province. China Central Television and the Shanghai Media Group broadcast Nickelodeon's "Wild Thornberries" and "CatDog" cartoons. "SpongeBob SquarePants" is due to premiere here next month.

But with television programming in China entirely state-controlled, Western media companies must negotiate every nuance of programming. And experts say that parents here may be even more restrictive than the government, viewing American-style television as too unruly.

"It wouldn't be surprising if the government said no to programs like these," says Lei Weizhen, who teaches about television at People's University in Beijing. "The public may question whether or not these shows are good for Chinese children."

In the cutthroat competition of contemporary Chinese society, parents invest heavily in what is often their only child. Urban children especially may attend school from 7 a.m. till 4 p.m., followed by hours of homework, music lessons and other enrichment courses. Deviating from this rigorous program is not encouraged.

"We don't allow him to watch too much TV," Qiu Yi, a 41-year-old advertising salesman in Shanghai, said of his 11-year-old son. "I'm not against cartoons. But I try to encourage him to watch documentaries on dinosaurs and the Second World War. These programs are useful to his study."

The back from the tummy bug edition...

• For some great reading, check out Joel from Far Outliers' greatest hits.
• David Beckham and friends support Hong Kong's constitutional reforms.
• Historic changes in China's population.
• A profile of ESWN's Roland Soong.
• An opinion piece on why some are nostalgic for Mao. Some in Russia are nostalgic for the days of Stalin, which goes to show they don't make nostalgia like they used to.
• An introduction to the Yakuza.
• What to invest in China's banks? Nearly 800 employees were punished for "irregularities"costing US$73 billion - and that's the ones that were caught. Fraud is widespread - it is estimated to cost 2% of China's GDP.
• China's government has no problems with gays, just groups of gays.
• In defence of Beijing's swearing.
• Media bias conspiracies made simple.
• Can Confucianism be distinct of the various cultures and contexts it is an integral part of?
• Private safaris and zoos in China.
• Taiwan's democracy as an insurance policy against Chinese annexation.
• A review of the key events in Asia in 2005.
• Bizarre job discrimination in China (via MM).
• China's booming economy will never surpass America's.
• Motherhood and power in East Asia.

There used to be an old joke floating around that people who paid money for bottled water from Evian were silly and that it was nothing more than a way for the manufacturers to call people "Naive" (Evian spelled backwards). Well, that could be, but not in China. There, it could be the difference between life or death.

Apparently the deputy director of China's State Environmental Protection Administration has admitted the underground water in 90 percent of China's cities are polluted:

The underground water in 90 percent of Chinese cities is polluted, China's environmental bureau said Wednesday, sparking concerns over the safety of drinking water for most of the 1.3-billion-strong population.

The deputy director of the State Environmental Protection Administration Zhang Lijun described the situation as "serious," China News Service said.

China is slowly starting to count the environmental cost of two decades of stellar economic growth, with industrial and human pollutants finding their way into the ecosystem.

"A survey showed that underground water in 90 percent of Chinese cities has been polluted by organic and inorganic pollutants, and there are signs that (the pollution) is spreading," it reported.

The pollution is generally caused by industrial waste from factories or untreated human waste discharged into rivers and then seeping into the ground.

Underground water is the source of drinking water for nearly 70 percent of China's population and is the source of some 40 percent of the country's agricultural irrigation, the report said.

It said the water pollution, which was worst in northern cities, was causing direct economic looses of tens of billion of yuan, or billions of dollars, not to mention "countless" indirect losses.

"In the next 25 years, China's water situation will face enormous pressure under a new round of economic growth," the report quoted Zhang as saying.

"It will be a key period as to whether (we) can limit the deterioration of water quality," he said.

As the article states, there are also huge economic repercussions as a result of the pollution and it's only going to get worse as China continues to move forward with its modernization process while neglecting its responsibility to the environment.

The environment will suffer, the economy will suffer and in the end the people will suffer the most.

I read with interest this article on how a restaurant in Harbin has been carved out of 800 cubic meters of ice from the Sungari (Songhua) River. Similar to ice hotels and bars in Scandinavia, the restaurant is made completely out of ice, relieved and insulated only by very heavy carpets - patrons nevertheless must don heavy parkas. Allow me to quote the People's Daily:

It took workers more than 20 days to finish the construction, using some 800 cubic metres of ice, according to Liu.

The restaurant can hold some 100 people, with six large tables in the main hall and an adjacent separate room.

The most vivid design is the ice bar counter, where customers can sit on the ice stools while sipping hot drinks.

The main food offered in the restaurant is the traditional Northeast China's hotpot, with families or groups of friends sitting around a table to eat from a steaming pot in the middle.

But customers are advised to wear their thick winter clothes while enjoying the "extreme delicacy."

Thick carpet is laid on the floor to restrict the cold air from the ice floor below and the ice stools are all covered with woollen cushions.

"Of course, we aim to attract them to sit down not to freeze them," said Liu.

Liu said there was no need to worry about the hot air produced by the steaming hotpot melting the ice dome as it is very high up.

But equally interesting are the ingredients put into the local hotpot, at least as listed by the People's Daily:"The restaurant is offering four special hotpot dishes, with some ingredients which can be rarely seen in common hotpot restaurants, such as meat of wild boar and deer, gnosis and ginseng, [the proprietor] said."

Now the other three I can understand, I grant you - but gnosis was something that rang a bell from my ancient philosophy classes. Allow me to quote from the Merriam-Webster dictionary online:"esoteric knowledge of spiritual truth held by the ancient Gnostics to be essential to salvation."

Perhaps a bit more "gnosis" in hotpots everywhere in China would be a good thing. Especially with the water quality being what it is, people'll need it in the afterlife!

Chinese citizens are taking their first, tentative steps towards an American-style litigious society - or are they? If so, this example will certainly not set the class-action lawsuit industry ablaze in China. I read today about a female government official from Nanjing whose lap and private parts were badly scalded by a cup of boiling water accidentally spilled on her, apparently by a careless flight attendant on Northwest Airlines.

The captain took note of her injuries and asked two ground staff at Narita to take her to an airport clinic. But the airline would not pay US$200 for her, so she left without treatment, a decision that cost her 3 months of suffering.

What is the unfortunate woman asking in return? US$1, and apologies in major newspapers, a case she is fighting in a higher court in Hawaii. Methinks she may have better luck in getting good lawyers if she upped the ante slightly - by a factor of a hundred million, say. That tends to focus corporate attention.

To be clear, I do not expect tendentious lawsuits dragging their way through China's rickety court system anytime soon.:)

Oh, and if this story was not strange enough, a witness that said that she actually spilled the drink on herself was a Japanese missionary.

• Hong Kong blogger and model Elyse Sewell is to release a book in January, to be published by the SCMP.
• An underground Chinese Christmas. On the flipside, a look at China's Yuletide revolution.
• 12 good reasons to learn Chinese: the rise of Chinese blogging.
• One year since the tsunami.
• A Taoist view of Christmas.
• All the latest on the Hwang cloning scandal. Also Hwang's betrayal of the ethics of both science and Confucius.
• Why a massaged NYT is better than Xinhua for China's newspaper reading masses.
• Laowiseass is sceptical of China's pledge to make it easier for foreign journalists in the country.
• Japan's robotic reporters.
• Will explains China's public holiday system.
• Danwei interviews Penguin's China representative, and talks about books and the China market.
• The KMT's sale of 3 media companies will not alter Taiwan's journalistic biases. But what a fall for a political party richer than most corporations.
• The seed that caused a tidal wave. The potential implications of a lawsuit in Chongqing.
• China's one child policy and its economic consequences.
• Doug Ireland looks at the plight of China's gays and lesbians.
• Intelligent Design in Japan.
• China's banks have been told to expect no more bailouts. Yeah, right. China has no choice but to bail out banks, as and when needed.

Mao Zedong was such a lunatic that even his successors running the Chinese Communist Party saw fit to largely disown his ideology. Even behind the clouded veil of recent Chinese history there is plenty of evidence that Mao is firmly ensconced in the pantheon of modern monsters. Which makes op-ed pieces like Pueng Vongs in today's SCMP almost criminal. The headline reads Still an inspirational leader, and in the spirit of Scrooge here's a Christmas fisking.

Almost 30 years after the death of Mao Zedong, many are still trying to define the controversial leader. But, like China, Mao defies simple classification. And his name still evokes deep respect amonst many Chinese.

Today, Beijing officials will honour the 112th anniversary of Mao's birth...

...Outside the country, many Chinese around the world say Mao gave China back its dignity. Yun Shi, 31, who grew up in Shangdong province and now lives in California, recalls the poet, hero and liberator who rescued the Chinese from a "century of humiliation" - the 100 years of foreign domination following the Opium Wars. In founding the people's republic in 1949, "[Mao] annoucned in Tiananmen Square that the Chinese have stood up," Shi said.

Ms Shi doesn not discount the controversial leader's crimes. Her own family suffered during the communist takeover led by Mao before be became chairman. While she may not agree with Mao's tactics, she still belives in the principles of a fair society, she said.

Not all Chinese see Mao in a favourable light. In Wild Swans, author Jung Chang chronicled the hardships her family endured as one of millions jailed or sent to the countryside for hard labour during the Cultural Revolution. In her recently release Mao: the Unknown Story, Chang uncovers a far darker side of Mao, much of it never before reported. After the book was released, Chinese came to Mao's defence on internet message boards, citing his contributions to China.

Ling-chi Wang, a professor of ethnic studies at the University of California at Berkley, said that while Mao's wrongdoings cannot be discounted, he "made an important contribution to Chinese history, as a leader who instilled a great sense of self-reliance and pride in the people.

In San Fransisco, where Chinese form the city's single largest ethnic group, a restaurant in the Richmond district called Mao Zedong Village is a living homage to the former leader.

...Beijing has recently been using Mao's influence to advance its own agenda, said Chaohua Wang, editor of One China, Many Paths and a dissident. "As discontent grew in the countryside over the growing disparity betweem rich and poor, in the late 1990s the government began to talk about Mao to comfort those who were complaining," Mr Wang said.

Leaders like President Hu Jintao copied Mao, he said, travelling to villages in the countryside [Where else would villages be? - Ed.], and emphasised MAo's achievements in making China strong". The message that they deliver was different from Mao's, however. Instead of speaking about "class struggles" against capitalism, as Mao did, they emphasised a "harmonious society".

Indeed, these days Mao is becoming more intertwined with China's spectacular rise. Shanghai-born Miachel Xin, 42, a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley, is in awe of what his country has become. And he says Mao gets a partial nod for laying the foundations.

1. The biggest and easiest gains came from undoing collectivization and giving individuals the responsibility for farming. In other words, Communism doesn't work.

2. Reducing taxes the poor face helps alleviate poverty. In other words, the less the Government interferes, the quicker people get out of poverty.

3. China benefited from a relatively equitable land distribution when collectives were broken up. Given what the country had to go through to get to that point, it's a silver lining in a very black cloud. Nevertheless it emphasises the importance of land reform and distribution in poverty alleviation.

It boils down to something very simple: does the means justify the ends? Especially if those ends are so obviously wrong? 73 million dead Chinese say no.

The Merry Christmas edition...

• Christmas in Korea.
• Christmas cards of the damned.
• A good example of the reality of Hong Kong's WTO protests.
• Santa's Chinese elves.
• Wordpress gives it Chinese users a nice present: it's been closing down Chinese blogs without notice.
• Chris explains "Chinese Christmas:" - the winter solstice feast.

And now with the non-Chrissy stuff:

• China's environmental problems are political. Additional thoughts on China's environmental regulation and protection after the cadmium spill in the Beijiang River.
• China as an insecure but rising superpower.
• The Tiananmen cleanup, 2005 style. Contrast with the 1989 version.
• Fons questions the news value of a reporter covering the "local hospital on a penis-beat". But it beats (pardon the pun) trying to cover Pudong fires.
• Asiapundit rounds up The Economist's articles on China's sex toy industry, Japanese humanised robots and after the Dalai Lama.
• Japan's population starts shrinking. There's an obvious solution to this demographic time-bomb...it's called immigration. Yes, it's really as simple as that.
• Coxinga: pirate or king?

Today, on my own blog, I wrote about the misadventures of the French expeditionary force organized to rescue the embattled Legations of Peking during the siege of the Boxer Rebellion in 1900. But while the French force mustered to save the Legations left much to be desired, many of the Frenchmen on the spot demonstrated tremendous bravery. One of them was a 22-year old French scholar named Paul Pelliot. Although not trained as a soldier (he was an academic that just unfortunately happened to be in Peking during the Siege), under fire he stormed an emeny position, and also relieved the dietary stress on the defenders by procuring for them fresh fruit.

True reknown came to him though, in his academic and archaelogical discoveries. He discovered a huge number of paintings and scrolls in many places near the Taklamakan Desert, including Dunhuang, which he felt were endangered by the anarchic last days of the Qing Empire and safer in French hands. So he bought them from a monk at the monastery named Abbot Wang.

Both were reviled by the Nationalist and Communist governments for giving away priceless Chinese artifacts. In Dunhuang today, you can still see a mini-museum dedicated to what they called the cultural robbers of men like Paul Pelliot and Sir Aurel Stein.

Which is why I was so surprised to read an article today about a joint Sino-French expedition, almost 100 years after Pelliot first set out for China, that discovered several ancient cities from the Western Han dynasty over 2000 years ago, on the southern fringe of the Taklamakan Desert (which means, he who goes in, will not come out - I can tell you from personal experience the area is so vast and arid that it can be believed at face value). Funny how things change!

Speaking of which, those of you in Hong Kong can enjoy a show entitled "The Silk Road: Treasures from Xinjiang" at the Heritage Museum in Sha Tin.

People have been debating for several years about whether or not Hong Kong truly is a World City, and whether the label Asia's World City is really appropriate for a city with such a homogenous population.

Well, today at the opening of the rather ambitious exhibition facility near the airport called the Asiaworld-Expo, Donald Tsang unintentionally gave us some insight into this claim:

When we adopted the brandname ‘Asia’s World City’ for Hong Kong a few years ago, it was intended to be partly descriptive and partly aspirational. We have since been working hard to live up to the promise of being a premier city in the region and beyond. With the opening of AsiaWorld-Expo, we have turned another small part of our vision into reality.

The title is a subversion of a silly, immature T-shirt often sported during the cold war, replete with a mushroom cloud, that read: "Peace Through Superior Firepower".

I refer to the issuance today by China of a White Paper on Peaceful Development. The full text, for anyone with a lot of time on his/her hands, is here. It is basically saying that China is big, it just wants to make money for its people and leave the world alone, and by doing so it will make the world a better place. Let's leave aside the environmental challenge posed by China's coal-based industrialization for the moment, and discuss how it will really affect the international political environment. Little has been written on this subject so far.

Discussion below the jump.

I would argue that China's rise, particularly if the United States retreats from some of its international obligations, will actually mean that the United Nations will become an organization more closely aligned with its original founding principles.

China has been a big fan of the UN since taking its rightful place on the Security Council in 1972 from Taiwan - indeed, it has been a bigger fan of democracy in international relations than in domestic policy. In recent years, the UN has become rather activist, and has been brought in on several occasions to effect nation-building. Overall, too, after the end of the Cold War there has been a greater willingness worlwide to tolerate multilateral interventions in states the world community considers to be failing, whether due to human rights violations, the persecutions of minorities, or otherwise.

But the chief purpose of the United Nations, when it was founded in 1945, was to stop countries from invading each other (specifically, Germany and Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland) and the most sanctified virtue of the original UN Charter was that nations always had the right of sanctity in its own internal affairs. But the rise and fall of the Iron Curtain, and the many momentous events during and after, made that principle subordinate to other considerations (with the exception of Bush I invoking the sanctity of sovereignty of Kuwait after Saddam invaded it).

Now China, given its political set-up, rather likes that principle, and does not really care for countries being able to attack one another, particularly over differences in how a country should treat its own people. The guiding philosophy for Chinese international relations in the 21st century is set out in this white paper - we make money, you'll make money too, and we'll all be happy - happy enough to leave each other alone in terms of internal issues. It invokes Chinese history constantly to prove its point.

The trouble, as I've said before, that what China considers 'internal affairs', its own 'Monroe Doctrine', if you like, has been a continually shifting set of territories. France and China went to war in 1884, for instance, over who had a stronger sphere of influence in Vietnam (China lost, but evidently tried to re-establish it unsuccessfully in 1979). China has throughout history tried to exert its influence in much the same way a Godfather (in the Puzo sense) does, in setting up tributary relations for all bilateral ties. Let us hope China does not revert to historical norm on this front as well.

• Link of the day: a recruitment ad for Japan's Navy (via Howard French).
• How to tell the real Santa. And if you really want to impress someone this Sunday, try this Chritsmas cake.
• China honours a 'good Nazi'.
• The brilliance of Hong Kong's police chief.
• The Tao of Dongzhou.
• China to launch a next generation sub. I've always wondered if next generation weapons are the offspring of previous generations?
• Japanese erotic mass hypnosis videos reviewed (via A/P).
• It's official, stop the presses: China's news release mechanism works.
• The New York Times is to get four days of "unrestricted" access to a Shanghai court. I can't wait to see that report.
• When it comes to sex, China wins, Singapore loses.
• A Jewish-Russian Chinese homecoming (via New Economist).

As expected Donald Tsang's constitutional reforms were voted down in Legco. While a bitter Chief Secretary Rafael Hui had a go, the key question is what will The Don do now? He's off to Beijing next week for instructions and there are two very different paths. The first is to simply say that he tried, he offered and it was rejected and so the status quo will remain until there is a broader consensus on how to move forward. He'll bury the idea in various committees and commissions and the democrats tactical victory will end up being a strategic defeat. The second is The Don decides to engage the democrats and try again on a new package.

The first is the more likely path. The Don came out and said there will be no new proposals on the 2007/8 elections. No doubt The Don worked hard to convince Beijing of the merits of the now defeated package, and Beijing aren't going to cave in to the demands of 24 legislators in Hong Kong. The boys in Beijing will emphasise their support for The Don, especially as we now have Anson Chan as the unofficial leader of the opposition.

The democrats will enjoy the headlines and kudos for the next few days. In the actual vote they played a smart political game and ran rings around the government and pro-Beijing forces. But what have they achieved? They've rejected a positive step forward towards universal suffrage for the longer term goal of a timetable. They have reduced the chances of eliminating appointed district councillors; they have rejected a chance to expand the electoral college that elects the Chief Executive in 2007; they've rejected an expansion in the Legco for 2008 that would likely benefit them and remove the functional constituency veto. Perversely, the democrats have voted to stymie democratic reform and played into Beijing's hands. Beijing and The Don can now say they offered progress and were rejected. Beijing has won thanks to the democrats. This game makes for odd bedfellows.

In short, they've gone for a double or nothing strategy, but with nothing looking the more likely outcome. It highlights the short-termism that pervades the democrats in Hong Kong. It is all well and good to be a purist and hope for an instant transition to full democracy. But politics is the art of the possible and as such it involves compromise and messy reality, not high ideology. The lack of courage and leadership from the democrats is as lamentable as it was predictable.

Unfortunately, Hong Kong is the loser.

Update (14:15) Daisann McLane reports on an extraordinary night for Hong Kong politics in Slate. She yet again mentions "her friend Hemlock". But will she go to jail to protect her sources? And what's with calling locals "Hong Kongese"? For the curious, Hemlock mentioned her back in March (Tuesday, 8th March) and she him in her piece on Long Hair. Hemlock's more switched on than we thought.

Elsewhere, Gateway Pundit gets it completely wrong and shows what happens when you buy into an issue based on glib media reports. Make sure you read the comments from Conrad. God I miss his blogging.

(19:10) LfC looks at local media reaction and wonders if they are all reporting on the same thing?

According to an article in the Sydney Morning Herald speaking Mandarin requires more brain power than speaking English:

Mandarin speakers use more areas of their brains than people who speak English, scientists said, in a finding that provides new insight into how the brain processes language.

Unlike English speakers, who use one side of their brain to understand the language, scientists at the Wellcome Trust research charity in Britain discovered that, in Mandarin, both sides of the brain are used to interpret variations in sounds.

I've also spoken to many Chinese students in the US who believe mastering the English language is the hardest thing they've ever done, but I suppose that depends on the individual because there are many people who are able to pick up foreign languages without a great deal of effort. Still, some say it is impossible to decide which is the most difficult language to learn.

• Interestingly environmental law issues from the Songhua River toxic spill (via Gordon).
• Elton John speaks out against China's cat fur trade.
• The danger Disney poses to Hong Kong.
• Chinese fire cars and the WTO.
• 150 Chinese businessmen arrested and released in Manila.
• Hong Kong's white elephant race begins: Kai Tak and Tamar are neck and neck, but West Kowloon is lumbering up from behind.
• Signs of Christmas in Beijing. Dan Drezner wonders about Christmas in the Pacific Rim.
• Comparing the sprawls of Tokyo with New York.
• China is starting to fund NGOs.
• Will 2006 be the year China's economy hits problems?
• It's official: you can't go a year without buying something made in China.
• Korla: a remote boomtown where mainly newcomers benefit.
• China's Supreme People's Court five year plan for court reforms.
• Communications problems at the top of Taiwanese politics.
• Jeff Ooi compares Singapore and South Korea's development and finds South Korea has done more with less (via A/P).
• What good is ritual?
• How Koreans chose Japanese names.
• The travels of Neil Bush and "Reverand" Sun Myung Moon in Asia.
• The Intelligent Design smackdown....taking the intelligent out of ID.
• Brad DeLong ponders irrational exuberance.

While the delegates have flown home, the impact of the WTO meeting on Hong Kong is far exceeding the impact Hong Kong had on the WTO.

1. The government is to promote spending in Wan Chai and Causeway Bay to help shopkeepers make up for the losses they copped for being closed for a week.
2. Peter Gordon suggests the government establish a free trade think tank here in Hong Kong, helping advance our claim to being "Asia's World City".
3. 11 Korean protesters were denied bail but their detainment conditions were improved, while the potential for more serious charges to come later this week was also raised. As a sideline there's the potentially interesting case of a mainlander also arrested but claiming mistaken identity. The Korean government minister visiting Hong Kong has now apologised twice to the city, but also said the protesters will not face any action on their return to Korea. If the law operates properly these protesters will be prosecuted and if found guilty thrown into jail. Demonstrating Hong Kong's adherence to rule of law would tell protesters that they are not above the law. They abused Hong Kong's hospitalilty and whatever their grievances with the WTO, their rioting and destruction was not justified. Think I'm being biased? Try this from Doug Crets in The Standard:

After apologizing publicly for the violent clashes for a second time, Lee said the actions of the protesters were not directed at the Hong Kong government and consequently they did not deserve further punishment by the Korean government on their return.

"I [have] asked the authorities to give some special favor to look into this matter. The demonstration had nothing to do with the sovereignty of the Hong Kong government," Lee said.

A small public relations storm erupted over the weekend as some nongovernment organizations and sympathizers with the Koreans' cause alleged that police overreacted to the protest Saturday. But eyewitness accounts by reporters from The Standard support claims that police action was commensurate with the level of violence.

For more than four hours police warned the Koreans to assemble peacefully and that violent action would be met "with force." Tear gas was only used when the mob became unruly.

But these police didn't do that. They stuck to rigid positions. They followed protocols. They reacted to an action, they didn't, as far as I could tell, create an action. In fact, the very actuality that the Koreans were able to break through Central Plaza to get that far to the convention center tells me that the Koreans kept pushing till they broke the riot police's ideological stance. After that happened, it was all reaction, and then a clamping down.

As I have said before, these demonstrations were about power and control.

What I want to know is, can anyone tell me how I can arrange to spray paint the United States Consulate General and get away with it? Seriously, how does that happen?

The core team for Curbside will be dispersed after they complete their coursework. Each one of them will probably have their own weblogs and/or fotoblogs. However, there was a moment in time when they all got together to work on a group project that was much bigger than the sum of each one of them.

As reported previously, China's GDP was revised up by almost 17% yesterday. This was thanks to a large revision in the contribution by the services sector. But some economists still consider the figures understated, perhaps by as much again as this revision. From the SCMP:

The long-underestimated service sector now has a GDP ratio of 41 per cent after the revision, up from 35 per cent. But Mr Tao said this ratio of the booming service sector was still too low, and up to 220 billion yuan was probably underreported.

"Anybody who has been to both India and China would tell you that China's service sector is as robust as India's, if not more ... China's GDP ratio of its service sector should at least come closer to India's 52 per cent," he said. Mr Tao said the underestimation was a combined result of an underground economy, tax evasion and currency undervaluation. He said sectors such as catering, hospitals and construction were prone to data collection faults...

Economist Andy Xie from Morgan Stanley said the lack of an independent national statistics agency was the major reason behind the unreliability of economic statistics as local authorities would tend to "massage" statistics.

1. China is now the world's sixth largest economy, behind the USA, Japan, Germany, Britain and France.
2. Several elements of China's government spending are set for big rises, especially education, health and defence, as these are usually set as a percentage of GDP. However the question will be how the Government will pay for these increases - just because the statistics say there's a jump in GDP, it doesn't mean the money magically appears in the coffers.
3. China's per capita GDP is higher again, taking the country to 107th in the world from 112th. Everyone in China is 17% richer than they were yesterday. I somehow doubt it will spark a consumption boom.

Here's a translation of the National Bureau of Statistics statement on the economic census.

David Altig notes the contrast with Japan.

There is a rather interesting article demonstrating the greed and fear with which California's agricultural kingpins regard China. It is worth reading just for its reminder of how to track the rise of China's bourgeoisie:

You want to track the middle class, check the refrigerators," says Robert Tse, director of trade for the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

• The historical background to Singaporean gambling.
• More WTO: A fisking of the Asian Human Rights Commission report on Hong Kong's alleged police brutality. Our boys in blue need to take a look at this (NSFW). The Korean politicians are annoyed that Hong Kong believes in rule of law. No word on what happened to these Taiwanese sex activists (does that mean they actively want more sex?)...it's not easy being a HK cop. And Fumier has a haiku for our departing Korean friends.
• China's transport plans for the next 15 years.
• Bhutan's King voluntarily steps down for democracy. My God, if this catches on in Asia, who knows where it could end? Singapore? Hong Kong? China?
• KFC marches to a different drumstick in China.
• China closes all unregistered web sites.
• Are cultural barriers still an impediment for doing business in China?
• The mystery of China's sinking stocks.
• Taiwan is upping its defence budget.
• China's quest for Asia from the Hoover Institution's Policy Review (via Singapore Angle).
• The Confucian renaissance.
• The Chinese financial conundrum: external strength, domestic weakness.

History in the making. I wonder if any enterprising economic historians have thought to explore what the history of taxation has to tell us about human history and progress?

Compare and contrast: China will officially scrap all agricultural taxes, a tax that has existed for 2,600 years. On the other hand, Gaungzhou is to introduce a capital gains tax on property to curb speculation. We've gone from taxing the produce of the land to taxing the value of the land itself. That's progress for you.

On a completely different note, Skinhua brings you Yu Na in bikinis, helpfully labelling it "hot". Thank goodness China's official media outlet is leading the crackdown on declining morality.

This just in: raw tuna is going to be off the menus of most sushi joints in Shanghai next year, and presumably (I would hope!) the rest of China.

To remain fresh, the deep-water tuna must be stored at -55 Celsius to remain fresh for the consumer. Once it is not, tuna changes in color from a deep red color to a brownish shade. Given that such low temperatures are not possible in China, tuna is often treated with carbon monoxide. This is potentially quite damaging for the consumer's health, particularly the kidneys.

The report quoted a local tuna expert, Professor Wu Jiale of the Shanghai Fisheries University, as saying on last Thursday that a study group he heads has finished drafting an industry standard for tuna eaten raw as Sashimi. The draft, now submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture, is expected to go into effect next year.

It may affect nearly all the restaurants and supermarkets in Shanghai offering tuna Sashimi, industry insiders worried, because most of the tuna on the local market is treated in this way.

After reading this article on organic food apparently being on the rise in Asia, I am prompted to ask the readership this question: when in Chinese, produce is labeled 'green food', does that mean it's organic, or is that just a meaningless label any produce-grower can stick on its vegetables? I've wondered every since I started seeing packs of 'green food' bok choy and choi sum in my local Park N Shop.

All of is grown in China, which naturally has thus far prevented me from actually buying any of it or allowing myself to have any faith at all in the 'organic'-ness of the produce in terms of not using dangerous pesticides, etc.

• The anatomy of a Chinese internet crime.
• Korean and Chinese surnames.
• China raises its stake in North Korea.
• Sam Crane on why there will be more Dongzhous. The official Dongzhou story. How Chinese netizens have used a 1926 essay to talk about Dongzhou.
• Jodi reflects on the Korean way and the cloning scandal.
• China is predicting overproduction in 11 economic sectors. The deflationary crunch is coming.
• Google's China strategy. Related is how America's top Internet companies are helping China's free speech crackdown. Nothing new but a summary of how does business with China's government.
• Beijing needs a giant monster attack. And they don't have any gay festivals.
• The real threat of fascism.
• The buzz in Japanese handbags.
• Chinese restaurant ordering calculations made easy.
• Gordon wants captions for a great photo.
• China forcing Taiwanese businessmen to spy on Falun Gong.
• Danger and opportunity does not equal crisis via FiaW).
• How to raise high-achievers.
• Ways to think about China's transformation.
• Hollywood, you have a problem with Asians.
• A debate on Chinese journalists ethics.

Now the WTO carnival has left town, it's time to focus on Wednesday's Legco vote on Donald Tsang's constitutional reforms. It looks very likely that the democratic camp will veto the changes, even after The Don today offers to phase out appointed democratic councillors by 2015 (nothing happens quickly in this game). Everyone is pondering what next, with The Don flying to Beijing next week to get further instructions and to shore up his position even though he's screwed up the one thing Beijing tasked him with doing in his 2 year apprenticeship.

Below the jump are the results of a poll done by the SCMP on what Hong Kongers think about the democracy reforms. People are split on whether the reforms should be passed, but a pluarity think the pace towards universal suffrage will slow if Legco vetoes the package. It's another perverse example of the democrats vetoing the package despite it conferring many advantages for them. Wang Xiangwei in the SCMP says a veto plays into Beijing's hands:

If democrats hold up hopes that the veto of the reform package could pressure Beijing to make more concessions on the timetable for universal suffrage, they are seriously mistaken. The rejection of the package would play right into the hands of Beijing, which has no intention to accelerating political developments in Hong Kong.

From Beijing's perspective, when the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping laid down the rules that "everything remains unchanged" in Hong Kong for 50 years after 1997, the package was wholesale, meaning that neither the economic system nor the political system should change much. Following this logic, for any timetable on universal suffrage, Hong Kong people would have to wait until after 2047. It may sound depressing, but that seems to be Beijing's bottom line...

After the rejection of the package, Beijing is most likely to adopt a policy of "sitting tight in the face of 10,000 changes" on the political developments in Hong Kong, to borrow a Chinese proverb. However, that does not mean mainland officials will pay less attention. In fact, they are most likely to heighten their alerts as the December 4 march has stoked their fears about the impact of Hong Kong's democratisation on mainlanders.

Ever since the recent series of "velvet revolutions" in neighbouring Central Asian nations such as Kyrgyzstan, Beijing has become paranoid about such a revolution spreading to China and has begun taking tougher measures against dissenters.

Imagine you are the parent of a young child. One day, that child begins to crawl. How would you react? Would you encourage the child and look forward to the day it will take its first steps, or would you tie the child to a bedpost and announce that you will force it to sit still until it can walk properly?

Many are privately hoping the proposal, which they see as favourable to the democrats, will be voted down.

A leader of one pro-Beijing organisation said quite a number of those in the leftist camp were viewing the administration's woes over the reforms with indifference. "Many would actually prefer the existing electoral arrangements to remain intact."

So what will happen after Wednesday? Nothing. The democrats still won't have a timetable, and they won't have the potential for electoral advantage either. If the democrats could see past their short term politicking they might realise that sometimes large change is best achieved by gradual steps. This is an opportunity wasted by the democrats.

1. All forms of agricultural export subsidies to be eliminated by 2013 - achieved in parallel and progressive manner. A substantial part to be realized by the end of the first half of the implementation period.

2. All forms of export subsidies for cotton to be eliminated by developed countries by 2006.

3. Developed countries will give duty and quota free market access for cotton exports by developing countries once the policy is implemented.

4. The 32 least developed countries will enjoy duty and quote free access for their products in 97% of all product categories, excluding rice and textiles, which the USA and Japan are protective about.

5. For service industry, countries will adhere to the Doha Ministerial Declaration and continue to aid the developing countries, as stated in the Modalities for the Special Treatment for Least-Developed Country Members in 2003.

So as the conference packs up and the baby products convention moves in, what have we learnt? The Korean rampage on Saturday night was, sadly, inevitable. Hong Kong's police did an outstanding job and made the city proud - compared to the chaos at both Seattle and Cancun this meeting went relatively well. I'll return to this later.

More importantly, have Hong Kongers learnt something from the Korean protesters? The spotlight swings back onto the constitutional reform package this week - will Hong Kongers gain a new sense of militancy? That could be an interesting legacy of the government's staging of the WTO.

The final question - which city on Earth would bother wanting to host the next ministerial?

Other links

• The aftermath from Saturday nights riots continues. The protesters got help from inside the conference centre from NGOs. Some are angered at the detention conditions of the arrested protesters. Others have put themselves into the police's shoes and asked who do you blame for the outcome? The arrest and chaos were exactly the result the Koreans wanted - don't think it was anything but a well planned and co-ordinated event.
• Some have latched on to the couple of hundred locals who turned out in support of the Koreans as a sign of widespread support. That may have been true prior to Saturday night's chaos, but far less true today. In local eyes the violence of Saturday night shot down much of the sympathy locals had for the protesters.
• Two excellent commentaries on Saturday's riots: Kevin Rafferty says the Koreans must be made to asnwer for the mayhem. He aptly compares the Koreans to football hooligans and says the same measures should be used in dealing with them.
• The second great commentary is from Andrew Work of the Lion Rock Institute, who talks about the violent enemy within - a good hard look at the Korean Peasants League. He warns Hong Kong's trade unions not to pay any heed to the KPL example. He notes the Korean farmers have spent at least US$2 million for this week's protests, all to protect sixty-three percent of their income comes from government support totaling almost US$20 billion (HK$156 billion). Like a desperate heroin junkie, they are willing to resort to violence to ensure the next hit. All at to the cost of Korean taxpayers and consumers. They think their livelihood is more important than that of a street-sweeper, semiconductor factory worker or a single mother working as a waitress. If you feel any sympathy for the KPL, read that article.
• Pascal Lamy's blog was last updated Saturday, but hopefully he'll have more to say.
• For the keen, a copy of the WTO ministerial conference draft final text.
• The SCMP reports the Korean government is sending an envoy to ensure the release of their farmers. I do hope the HK Government will also leave the envoy with a bill for the damage caused.
• Trade unionist and HK People's Alliance on WTO head Elizabeth Tang is rightly taken to task over yet another ridiculous press release. Thank goodness this thing's over so this group can disband...and Elizabeth Tang can return to be irrelevant.
• ESWN translates some interviews with Hong Kong police involved in the riots.
• Braving the wilds of Wan Chai, Spike reports first hand on the damage the riots did to the workers of Wan Chai.
• Hemlock's got the right idea on what to do with the Korean arrestees:

  Being in a merciful and rehabilitative frame of mind as we count down the days before Christmas, I urge my fellow commuters to consider a more educational approach. “We should put the thugs to work on a prison farm,” I tell them, “then make them sit in chains in street markets, trying to sell their produce at 10 times the price other stall holders are asking. For this, they would receive 10 dollars a day, but they would have to pay for their food. Their menu would have two options – Korean beef and rice for 25 dollars a bowl, or foreign beef and rice for 5 dollars. Plus extra kimchee for good behaviour in economics classes.”

• Some Koreans want Hong Kong to keep the arrestees.

Inside the game of brinkmanship continues, with little progress being made. Typically deals are only concluded at the last minute, if at all, so what you see from the meeting itself is only negotiation tactics at this stage.

Police chief Dick Lee Ming-kwai said security at the convention centre, which was locked to ensure protesters did not storm the building, was not compromised. He said he had not contacted the PLA garrison and saw no reason to do so.

Below the jump is the SCMP's full report on last night's chaos.

Other links

• ESWN comments on the protests and says they were a PR disaster for the police and media and that the protesters were the winners. He's now followed up with further observations of the local media's coverage and impressions on the PR war. Many in Hong Kong have been very sympathetic to protesters (before last night, at least), but personally I think the HK police have done an outstanding job.
• Also a reporter's insider account of being a reporter at the WTO protests.
• Various quotes overheard by photographer Samson So during the course of the protests.
• A couple of reports from those on the wrong side of the lockdown: Dan Drezner and Stephen Spruiell (via I/P).
• Dan Drezner also reports on a potential trade deal being reached...with a small hitch. Unsurprisingly, tired and cranky negotiators aren't getting far...maybe the ladies of Wan Chai can help perk things up?
• ESWN translates a discussion on civilian journalism and bias, based on a report from someone involved in last night's chaos.
• A first person report from admist the tear gas and riots. Also Curbside reporter Sam Graham was in the middle of last night's riots and gives his account.
• A digest of local and international media coverage of the riots and WTO meeting.
• Here's a collection of press photos of last night's riots.

They had warned Hong Kong all week that Saturday would be their day and so it was.

Korean farmers were joined by thousands of others from around the world for the first time - a motley collection of local troublemakers, students, NGO delegates and an assorted rent-a-crowd - but it was the Koreans who had the guile to lead them all to the edge of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre rather than the desolate Wan Chai cargo area set aside for them.

Police had authorised a 2pm march from Victoria Park and had prepared with the week's biggest battalion of officers - 2,000 - backed up with giant saltwater cannons, pepper spray and a barricade which saw them tower above the mob.

This was to be the biggest official action by protesters for the day and police were ready. But if you are a fanatical peasant or unionist from Korea with a reputation for violence, you don't follow plans. Plain and simple, the police were caught out.

The Koreans realised most of the riot police would be gathered around the official cargo-area protest site, leaving the majority of police on the streets in normal uniform and not kitted out for a riot or to battle such a well-drilled and experienced army.

By 3.30pm the first small and, surprisingly, local group, was engaged in another series of futile battles with police blocking the path to the WTO venue far in the distance.

But while the crowd chanted "Shame" and "F*** the police", in Victoria Park there remained a large contingent of militant Korean unionists and members of the National Peasants' League who had fuelled the violent clashes with police all week.

When they decided to move, they moved fast, separating into groups in Causeway Bay and Wan Chai.

Then they arrived at Marsh Road in Wan Chai, the entrance to the cargo area. But instead of continuing to the protest site they turned and used brute force to charge through the thin blue line of officers and started running down Lockhart Road.

The first real clashes with police were savage, running battles, with individual protesters armed with bamboo poles charging at officers, seizing their shields, batons and even attempting to roll a police van.

Officers were left stranded and set on by groups, some falling to the ground and being set upon by the mob. Taking advantage of the chaos, the group then retreated back to Marsh Road and began running down Hennessy Road.

Police were nowhere to be seen as some turned down Fleming Road and others down Luard Road, before bolting into oncoming traffic on Gloucester Road and surging into Fleming Road.

Fate had found them in the perfect place for the oncoming brutal battle that was about to take place.

A line of riot police stood before them, with long metal gates blocking them from direct contact with the batons and shields.

The first clashes were just before 6pm.

While they had only been armed with bamboo, now they seized the metal gates dividing the police and pulled them to the back of the crowd as protesters and onlookers continued to flood the area.

They had come to the vicinity of of the convention centre and were planning their final stand.

At the back of the crowd, a section of the group was busy pulling the barriers apart as the drums sounded and more protesters continued to make their way to the site as word spread that they had their chance to storm the WTO.

The barriers were gone, and police now stood face to face with their enemy. The noise intensified, with the Koreans standing and chanting while random protesters taunted the police ranks.

The unionists and farmers took the front line on both sides of the road divider, which filled with onlookers, many with cameras.

It was nearly dark when the first outbreaks of violence occurred. Groups of protesters targeted the mobile riot officers, who had only small shields.

But no longer were they armed with only their fists. Metal rods from the gates and even flagpoles were used in the vicious assaults on the police from all sides.

By 6.30pm, the attacks had reached their zenith, and the fear in the eyes of the police on the front line had turned to weariness.

Protesters like Rakesh Tiket from an Indian Farmers' League proudly displayed the broken shields they had seized from the police to the roars of the crowd.

The Koreans had turned the metal skeletons of the barricades into battering rams, and the police line retreated from repeated assaults. Others dismantled the wooden shutters put in to protect the windows of Central Plaza.

Emboldened by their victory, the crowd surged forward, a large contingent split from the pack to form a third front and began taking on the police in the forecourt area of Central Plaza.

Again, police were caught unprepared, and one-to-one combat broke out between officers and armed demonstrators.

By 7pm, and despite what looked like an impenetrable cordon of riot police, the group broke through. Police unleashed at least three canisters of tear gas into the crowd, while those that broke through ran to within metres of the convention centre's main door.

The police then fired another four canisters of the tear gas into the first group. People fell to the floor, vomiting, tears streaming from their faces. But the Koreans in the front kept going, so another two canisters were released.

"Help me, help me," one woman screamed from the floor as retreating protesters trampled over her.

Amid the choking gas, the final group continued to push on before five canisters of gas saw them turn on their heels and flee.

On the Fleming Road overpass, protesters cried and washed their eyes as a lone Korean farmer tried in vain to break a stolen police shield.

The heart of Hong Kong had been turned into a battle zone and as the protesters gathered into the night on Gloucester Road, it was far from finished.

I just got back from Shenzhen last night. I always used to feel sorry for Indians and other people from the subcontinent, because they were often given an incredibly hard time by immigration officers worldwide. But my thought of the day is this:-

In a Chinese immigration line, Americans are the new Indians.

Love is complicated in any society and China is no exception - in fact, it may be the rule. In most cases there are cultural and ethnic traditions, dowries and a long list of other protocols that must be followed (as I had to), but for China's migrant workers things can sometimes be even more complicated:

Marriage is nothing to be flirted with in a hasty way, but among young migrant workers from east China's Jiangxi Province, they are tying the knot in no time by binding each other with "marriage down payment". Lin Qing, a 24-year-old girl in the countryside of Jiangxi's Anyi County, married her husband Yang Geng on the seventh day after they got acquainted through a matchmaker in January this year. Yang, also a local farmer, had a job of selling aluminum alloy in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province.

Before the marriage, Lin's mother Li Laiying received 23,000 yuan (about 2,875 U.S. dollars) from Yang's father -- 13,000 yuan for wedding feast, buying clothes and jewelry and 10,000 yuan for "marriage deposit" or "marriage down payment". The 10,000 yuan is meant for guaranteeing that once Yang is not faithful to Lin, the girl can at least get some compensation, and the money will be returned to them if the couple can remain in the wedlock and have child, said the mother.

Receiving down payment has become very popular in rural families with young people working in cities in Anyi. Generally, when a young man returns home from his migrant working life during a short vacation, he will be introduced to a girl by a matchmaker. If the two think it is all right to stay together, they will immediately sign an agreement to define their lover or spouse relations. After handing over some 10,000 yuan or more to the mother-in-law, they are allowed to go out working in cities and start a couple's life.

The cynics are out, asking why would Hong Kong want to associate itself with a failed meeting? Such cynicism is misplaced. Firstly, Tonga successfully was admitted to the WTO yesterday, making a neat 150 members. Secondly it appears a deal over allowing the "least developed countries" (LDCs) full and free access to developed markets is nearing completion. In a neat change the EU is taking the high moral ground, having already granted such access to many LDCs, while the US is busy trying to exempt Bangladesh and Cambodia (they're too good at making certain textiles) and sugar (because American sugar farmers can't compete without handouts). On the downside, the developing countries are digging their heels in over a services agreement. The problem with that is the EU, Japan and Americans will not consent to an agriculture deal of any sort without some kind of concession on services. And what's the concession? It is merely to change how the services agreements are negotiated - that's right, they're argueing about how to negotiate negotiations. Finally, Hong Kong's Tourism Board may have found a new advertising angle: tourists from Singapore find this whole protesting thing quite novel.

Protesters are complaining of being upstaged by South Korean demonstrators, a leading international activist says. Protesters who had not taken part in demonstrations with the Koreans had complained of "grandstanding" to the detriment of other causes, she said.

To cap it all off, Donald Tsang was in Central with a loudhailer, although it wasn't clear if he was defending his constitutional reforms or protesting the WTO. No pepper spray was used on him.

Other links

Updated throughout the day.

There's an ongoing debate between the Chicken Man, myself and others on the merits of the WTO and free trade.

• Read a digest of what the world and Chinese press is saying about the WTO. LfC also has snaps of the local Hong Kong papers' coverage.
• The Standard's got a gallery of photos from yesterday's protests.
• China may benefit "unfairly" from the WTO talks. You see, China's developing but its also developed when it comes to American trade paranoia.
• An interview with Trotskyite Greg Bradshaw, a young Australian socialist who flew a Boeing on Qantas, wears Adidas and came to Hong Kong. Then he and his mate Mark Boothroyd headed off to McDonalds for lunch, saying "We're not against hamburgers. The problem is capitalist society." I challenge anyone to make sense of that.
• At the "fair trade" fare, the SCMP notes a can of Pepsi is marked up 30% higher than the regular retail price. Fair trade comes at a cost.
• Doug Crets looks at the reality of protesting.
• Today's must read: the WTO can promote both free trade and human rights.
• From the Guardian blog on the horse trading in the "green room" - the backroom where the trade agreements are really hammered out.
• Who gains from agricultural subsidies? French farmers and the Queen.
• Violent protest and the media's role.
• Lots of good stuff at Hong Kong blog: looking at the American problems in this negotiation and Africa's interests in liberatisation are two examples.
• Dan Drezner on deja vu in Hong Kong.
• Pascal Lamy's blog is updated...talking about some progress but with much still to do.
• The protesters are winding down with some wierd jamboree with the usual folk singing and dancing. Behind them is a sign saying "WTO Kills Farmers". I thought they killed themselves?
• It's 17:45 and the Koreans are out spray painting the outside of the US Consulate. Amazingly neither the Marines, nor Hong Kong police, nor King Kong, have emerged to stop this vandalism. Where is the long are of the law? How can such wanton destruction be condoned? And if this is the Koreans upping the ante, the major question remains: are they serious? Graffiti is as radical as it gets? The lack of creativity is a major disappointment.
• It's hard to describe the farce that is these protests. It seems the cops have moved in after a couple of protesters stupidly tried to storm the Consulate gates. It was hard to see with the wall of flashes and cameras. The media scrum was huge. If you ever doubted it before, these protests are as much a media production as they are genuine outpourings of feeling.
• The graffiti says "Down, down WTO" and an observation of Hong Kong's sterile concrete cityscape: "No Bush". Yes, more greenery would be nice.
• A final note: the leader of the protesters has a small flag, just like regular tour groups that wonder the streets of Central. It somehow seems apt, beause these protesters have been more like tourists than anything else.

Rant begins-> An idiotic weekly men's magazine, Flash, has had the gall of saying that the value of all the land occupied by US bases in Japan would be enough to buy up New York City. It is apparently 'outraged' by Japan's blind obedience to the United States, and for allowing it 312 million square meters to be 'occupied', worth a total of more than 14 trillion yen.

The nationalism in Japan knows no bounds. I shall pass on the fact that the land grants occurred when Japan was hardly in any kind of negotiating position, and focus instead on the fact that Japan saves that much annual on defense by having America there in its place. <-Rant over.

Allow me to ask a question: of those of you who take public transport on a daily basis, particularly in Hong Kong, how many of you get up for elderly people?

I do, and do think that more people in this city should. But before you think that this is going to be a moralistic post, I must confess that there is a caveat: I won't get up for older people that dye their hair (unless they're on crutches or look like they're going to fall over).

I know it seems a bit crass, but basically I don't for two reasons: 1) they clearly want to be young, and to be regarded as young. Why offend them by offering them a seat? 2) By trying to hide their age, and pass themselves off for something they are no longer, I figure they lose their natural entitlement to my seat.

Am I a hard-hearted jerk? Or acting sensibly and fairly?

...Or has he just lost his freaking mind?

Asiapundit has stumbled on a rather startling piece of news; North Korean soldiers cross border and fire on Chinese soldiers:

It has been belatedly learned (thanks to KBS) that five North Koreans armed with rifles crossed the Tumen River into China's Yonbyon region in the early morning hours of Oct. 16 and attempted to burglarize a mountainside resort villa. The manager of the resort quietly notified the authorities, who responded by sending six of the PLA's finest to the scene. As the Chinese soldiers approached the resort, the North Koreans opened fire, killing a 19-year-old soldier by the name of Li Ryang. According to witnesses, the North Koreans were wearing KPA uniforms, and are believed to have been soldiers.

The last time I checked China was North Korea's sole remaining ally. Either Kim Jong-il has lost his mind or his troops are so desperate for food and other commodities for survival that they're now willing to bite the hand that feeds them.

• ICG discusses North East Asia's undercurrents of conflict. They've even compiled a list of recommendations for the governments of China, USA, Japan and South Koera, but curiously none for the North Koreans.
• A Catholic priest re-created a Vietnamese village in Houston but now is losing control of it.
• Via FH comes Hong Kong Wong. A good laugh.
• The Americans are challenging China's lead in the locked-up journalists' stakes.
• Western media's misreading of China.
• I know you shouldn't laugh, but...pig waste blocks Chinese town's taps.
• Zheng He - the public face of China's new navy.
• More controversy over the Korean stem cell pioneer Hwang Woo Suk.
• China's hi-tech exports are not as worrying as some fear.
• Asia's women folk need to fear: whitening masks and bacteria. Related is plastic surgery trends in China and America.
• Politics and media control in Taiwan.
• The Japanese farting wife survey.
• The politics of why Yao Ming is not a great player. And Matt Yglesias compares Yao and Ewing.

The conference must finish by then to make way for a trade show, a consumer baby products exhibition and carnival expected to attract up to 200,000 visitors. Wilkinson said many delegations have booked hotel rooms for at least some members through Wednesday, assuming last-minute talks will roll into extra hours despite official vows to end the conference on time.

Televised images make the clashes between protesters and local police appear violent and chaotic, but up close the incidents seemed controlled and almost ceremonial.

"Soft, gentle" and "a bit merciful". That was how South Korean protesters described their police rivals after two days of ferocious confrontations that saw injuries as the police used riot shields and pepper spray to keep the raucous protesters at bay.

Today's links and comments

Updated throughout the day. Keep scrolling day for the rest of today's posts.

• What do the non-Korean Asian protesters want? What are the protesting protesting, exactly? And who is Superman?
• The WTO may as well give up: the fair trade mob had a fashion show. It's enough to shake the hardiest free trader.
• ESWN reports on the progress of civilian journalists during this meeting. The SCMP's plea for citizen journalist pictures and reports doesn't seem to have lead to much.
• From the inside, a report on the maneuvering over agriculture.
• Sanity is slowly returning to Hong Kong TV: it's all English soccer this morning. And even better news: our Coke machine was refilled last night.
• It's 11:20, it's 14 degrees Celcius and for a nice change the Koreans have made way for five or six Indonesians, one of whom is not wearing a shirt and must be freezing his nipples off. I think they're protesting about the lack of police brutality, but it's hard to tell as all the media's cameras keep getting in the way.
• Pascal Lamy's blog is updated: he says the engine is starting to turn, albeit slowly. Don't take too long, the baby convention moves in Monday morning.
• I had lunch at a place not far from Tamar, and watch a group of protesters march by. By my count there were 20. The TV alternates between assorted marches in and around Victoria Park. There hasn't been any more cops vs. Korean farmers face-offs yet...maybe today is a rest day?
• Flagrant Harbour went along to today's pro-WTO/free trade rally, with pics and reports.
• There doesn't seem to have been any pepper spraying yet today. What a shame.
• For the Chicken Man and other anti-trade protesters, try this game based on the work of Bertil Ohlin. Free trade - it's child's play.
• So far there hasn't been any Korean suicides, any self-immolation, just a few cuts and bruises to the head. Is it wrong to be disappointed?
• Tom Grundy, the Chicken Man, has sent the following:

Thought I'd respond to your entry about my recent protesting in Hong Kong as I believe the 'ignorance' and 'confusion' is on your side (though I will try to be less derogatory).
Regarding the WTO being democratically elected - it is a powerful organisation which affects the lives of millions across the world, undermining the governments people elect - so we should get a say and it should be more transparent. I've lived amongst villagers in Uganda and slum-dwellers in India and have seen the effects of these trade policies. (I now live in Hong Kong, as a teacher, I'm not a random demonstrator from the UK). The WTO appears to be on its last legs anyway.

And about the UN - there's a difference between globalisation in the sense of corporate/cultural imperialism or 'coca-colonialism' and the globalisation of government. We are protesting about the collusion of government and corporations.

Though I understand the US and capitalism as a system are the underlying forces at work here, I actually believe the WTO should be reformed and either incorporated into the UN and based around the Convention on Human Rights, rather than corporate profit.

An excellent concise summary of the true nature of the WTO can be found here.

And might I add, when I 'look around Hong Kong', I don't bask in wonder of the 'widespread prosperity', I wonder at what price Hong Kongers have paid environmentally and socially, and how it affects the majority world (or '3rd world')

Tom Grundy - the "insult to chickens"

What is "cultural imperialism", anyway? People have always have a choice - if they don't want to drink Coke, watch Hollywood movies, eat Big Macs and drive Fords they don't have to. But many people, including the poor, choose to use these goods and services. Don't patronise the poor by telling them what's good for them and restricting their rights to accessing them, just as the rich world should not bar the free trade in goods and services (including labour) from the poor (or each other, for that matter).

How would basing the WTO on the Convention on Human Rights help matters? Trade is precisely about profit, from the biggest multinational to the smallest farmer...everyone gains from a bigger pie. Protecting human rights is the responsibility of national governments, and if those governments fail there is the UN. It is a seperate issue from trade. A most fundamental human right is to let people make a living in peace, without artificial barriers and constraints. Millions in China have been lifted out of poverty thanks to such basic ideas as property rights and free trade, both intra- and inter-national.

Finally, when you look around Hong Kong, you might notice a city of 7 million people, many of whom came here to escape a despotic mass-murderer who was causing economic chaos. The city is one of the richest and most prosperous in the world. Yes there has been pollution and that is now a major issue the government is being forced to address. But those 7 million people know they will have food on their plate, a roof over their heads and the freedom to make a living however they see fit. If you ask most Hong Kongers, they are happy with the "price paid" for their prosperity. Why deny that to the "majority world"?

• The bright side to Sino-Japanese ties. On the flipside, China gets snarky over Japan's defence budget.
• Are some Chinese going nuts?
• Victor Shih has thoughts on the Dongzhou massacre and rural unrest. He thinks rural areas will become more stable over time, but with bouts of violence like Dongzhou. Related, should we blame Chinese journalists for what they do and don't write, following Howard French's NYT piece disclosing names of some who didn't write about Dongzhou in his article Beijing casts net of silence over protest. Sam Crane has a go at the government over its attempt to categorise Dongzhou.
• A question on the development of neo-Confucianism.
• The scandal over falisified earthquake resistance data in Tokyo continues to unfold.
• Has the Xbox 360 been a flop in Japan? And the South Koreans are asking game makers to stop picking on the Norks.
• China's first virtual semi-celebrity blog...with a great, possibly NSFW, photo.
• Via Fons comes a paper on snakes and snakeheads (illegal Chinese immigration).
• The China "happy work" index. I imagine this slave worker wouldn't make the list.
• Thoughts on the East Asia Summit and American-less Asian future. As much as China and Malaysia can't face it, America is and will be a strong part of Asia's future for a long time to come.
• The latest in the Taiwan DPP's as the worm turns.
• CNOOC screws public (minority) shareholders and goes to mummy for help. I wonder what Unocal shareholders think?
• Mapping China's diaspora.
• Gay marriage Beijing style. And Hong Kong's deathbed marriages.
• The normalisation of Taiwan's government.
• The Chinese and Russians are considering a dam to contain the polluted Songhua River.

In many cities there are books called Entertainment Guides. These books include discount coupons at various restaurants and other places in the city. The best part is typically some of the book's proceeds go to a charity or non-profit group, and from my experience in Sydney the book quickly pays for itself in saved bills.

I'm please to say Hong Kong now has it's own version: 123 Book.

If you click that link, you'll be taken to the order page for the book and it's a simple, two step process. The proceeds if you click that link will go to my daughter's school building fund. So you can feel virtuous that you will be helping future generations learn and get cheap meals at the same time. To help convince you, here's a listing of current places offering 2 for 1 meals under the scheme. Lots of good places already signed up, and more to come. And if you have a restaurant, you should join up - I certainly know that my family will usually first look in the book for a place to go eat...and if we like we go back (sans discount).

The sooner you order, the sooner you start saving.

So what are you waiting for? Click now!

.

Update 12/15

The book arrived exactly one day after purchase. Lots of good places and good discounts on offer. Have you bought yours yet?

The WTO circus in Hong Kong made me wonder what the conservative American libertarian think-tank, the Cato Institute, had to say on MC6. I was not disappointed; there is a very interesting, thought-provoking article by Marian Tupy on why sub-Saharan Africa was failing in an age of falling tariff barriers.

Now I have always been of the opinion that the populations of many developing countries depend on agriculture for their sustenance and survival; the farm subsidies of the development world therefore seem rather unfair in that they remove even comparative (as opposed to absolute) advantage from many such countries in the one area in which they might be expected to be competitive. There are counter-examples of course, like Argentina or Brazil. But by and large, the European's CAP (or should we say CRAP) put such hopes beyond reach.

However, the author harbors no such illusions. She believes that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is in the state it's in not as passive losers in a global trade regime, but as masters of their own destruction due to highly protectionist policies (discouraging investment), trampling on property rights (discouraging saving and investment) and colossal corruption and mismanagement (again, discouraging investment). Allow me to quote her:

SSA is destined to remain poor, the conventional wisdom holds, unless the rich countries change their economic policies. African leaders are only too happy to play their part in that charade. Blaming African poverty on forces beyond the control of Africa's political elites takes the spotlight away from decades of failed economic policies, wholesale looting of Africa's wealth, and loss of countless lives to political repression and ethnic conflicts...But blaming others will do little to improve the lives of millions of poor Africans. In order to escape poverty, SSA countries must begin by liberalizing their trade with one another and with the rest of the world...Trade opening will result in welfare gains for SSA. But those welfare gains will not be on a scale that will drastically reduce African poverty. Indeed, the benefits of trade liberalization will be severely restricted unless trade opening is accompanied by far-reaching economic and political changes on the African continent.

In the otherwise boring conflab that is the East Asia Summit, a small but significant gesture could prove the start of the thawing of icy Sino-Japan relations. I'll leave it to the China Daily to describe what happened (the photo is below the jump):

...as the leaders were signing the document, Koizumi leaned over and asked to borrow Wen's pen. But Wen ignored him for several seconds until Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi intervened to repeat the request. Wen then passed the pen to Koizumi with a smile.

Meanwhile, Wen and Hu's efforts in AIDS outreach are having unintended consequences. Two AIDS patients the President shook hands with are now being ostracised in their villages. The same article reports that 60% of city dwellers are "nervous" about contact with HIV positive people. While the example of China's leadership in AIDS education is commendable, far more needs to be done to overcome the typical superstition and suscipions of people. It's the same battle the West fought 20 years ago. Perhaps Japan and Koizumi can help?

Hong Kong's democrats are set on vetoing the limited constitutional reforms proposed by Donald Tsang. However political scientist Michael DeGolyer explains why the democrats may be shooting themselves in the foot. Absolutely read the whole thing - it explains how the changes could potentially remove the pro-Government veto in Legco, and force the DAB and trade unions to move from letting business do the government's dirty work to having to do it themselves.

Hong Kong has a strange kind of democracy - here parties campaign on essentially one major issue, which is whether they are pro and anti-government. In most other places, parties campaign to form the government, based on a platform of what they intend to do.

Welcome aboard our newest co-blogger, Gordon of The Horse's Mouth.

There are no shortages of people in this world who pity themselves and seek the sympathy of their fellow man for the misfortunes that burden their lives. There are also those who find the strength to rise up and silently endure those burdens while trying to make a difference in someone else's life. However, I doubt many of them are 12 years old.

Hong Zhanhui, a 23-year-old college student, struck a chord in China with the story about his adoption of his sister and support of his troubled family...

Born to a poor peasant farmer's family at Hongzhuang, an outlying village in Xihua County, central China's Henan Province, Hong led a relatively peaceful life until an accident tore apart his five-member family 11 years ago. During one day in August 1994, Hong's father, Hong Xinqing, suddenly began smashing the furniture in their tile-roofed house. His crying mother was kicked to the ground and his one-year-old sister was grabbed by his father and lifted above his head.

"My full sister died, my dad went crazy and my mom was fractured," Hong, now 23, recalled as his eyes reddened at Huaihua Institute, a quiet university campus in central-south China's Hunan Province, where he studies. "It was such a nightmare."

His father was diagnosed with mental illness and then 12-year-old Hong felt like the sky had fallen. Deeply affected by his family's misfortune, Hong first encounter with wide-eyed Chenchen in an abandoned swaddle under a tree outside his village made him believe he was destined to adopt the child.

"You don't raise the baby, I'll take her," Hong told his mother,who considered finding another guardian for the infant. "Whatever happens, I won't leave her."

To add to his hardship, Hong's mother fled their home one day as she could no long stand the violence and pressure brought on by her mentally ill husband. The family collapsed and Hong had to bear the burden of looking after his sick father, his young brother and his new adopted sister. The nights were long as the hungry Chenchen wailed in wee hours and Hong couldn't find anything at their destitute home for her to suckle.

"All I could do is to take her in my arms, walk back and forth and rock her gently," Hong said. To keep the baby away from his insane father, Hong committed Chenchen to a relative's care after he begged nearby woman to feed her every morning before going to school. In the eyes of Hong's neighbors, he was a pathetic kid who had to bring up another one, work in the fields and earn money to buy ataractic for his sick father and support the family.

"At his age, other kids are usually naughty but Hong can handle adult problems," said Sun Liuzhuang, a village doctor and Hong's neighbor. Hong never complained to others about the pressures he endured."He rarely talked about his family and just stayed home, reading and studying," villagers said...Hong sold ball-point pens, books and tapes for learning English. "Many people looked down upon me for the peddling then," Hong recalled. "But I didn't care."

To take good care of his adopted sister, Hong first took her around with him in the county, then to his college about a thousand kilometers away from their home.

I'm sure there are more people like Hong in China, but unfortunately their stories usually take a back burner to all the reports of riots and corruption that plague the country.

Greetings. Loads of bread and bananas already stocked to keep me going through the week...I overslept so I could only do a quick run at the gym but, given the vastness of this Conference Centre, I may be able to get all the exercise I need simply by moving from meeting to meeting inside this facility.

But there have been winners as well. Hong Kong Disneyland announced its first ever sell-out and Ocean Park saw a 40% jump in attendence thanks to many schools shutting for the day. So at least Hong Kong's taxpayers will get some benefit from the conference.

Below the jump is a telling photo from today's SCMP. As I said yesterday, it seems the media and police are far outnumbering the few "militant" protesters. Can you say "manufactured for the media" and "publicity stunt"? If the most militant thing these Korean peasants can do is swim in Victoria Harbour, then full power to them.

Other links

This will be updated throughout the day. You can also follow the Curbside at WTO site for more reports.

• The Standard has an image gallery of various photos from the protests.
• A few facts and figures on the meeting. It turns out the government spent HK$250 million on the meeting, including 700 civil servants as volunteers and 9,000 cops for security.
• A report of what's happening inside the ministerial meetings.
• A brief media digest of what both Chinese and English media are reporting on the WTO.
• Here's the piece I mentioned yesterday in The Standard on the lack of local support for the anti-globalisation crowd.
• Another pro-free trade event being organised by the Lion Rock Institute. Don't let the anti crowd have all the fun!
• The Wall St Journal says Welcome to Hong Kong, again pointing out how this city is one of the best advertisements for globalisation and free trade.
• What delegates think about Hong Kong's WTO ads.
• It's 12:45 and the TV is showing the standoff between the Korean peasants and cops. Plenty of pepper spray, a bit of push and shove...and that's just the media! Best of all was a temporary truce, negotiated so one protester could retrive his shoe. This could be a game of inches...it looks like the police line has retreated exactly 3 inches since yesterday, which just leaves 20,000 more to the convention centre. The Koreans are wearing Glad Wrap over their eyes and ears to protect themselves from the pepper spray. It doesn't appear to be helping.
• Dan Drezner reveals the various types of agricultural subsidies that exist.
• Now it's almost 13:00, the Korean farmers had a go at the police line, kicking and punching, but were met with a wall of pepper spray a judicial kick in the privates. I've rung the Jockey Club but they aren't taking bets on this one, which is a shame because the cops are dominating at the moment. This is great lunchtime entertainment. And now the farmers have backed off for a smoke break. This is rioting at its most civilised. Now there's a musical interlude - guys with yellow flags in their hats are banging drums and dancing...but the cops don't seem tempted to join in. Half-time entertainment!
• What the Chinese press thinks of the Korean protesters.
• For some high-brow analysis, the Global Economy Journal has several articles dedicated to covering the Doha round. And Foreign Affairs magazine has a special WTO free trade edition (via Ben Muse).
• More proof of how civilised this protest is: the Koreans just handed over a police shield back to the cops.
• Harry Hutton notes that Columbian girl Santas are non-tradeable goods.
• Richard Welford takes issue with the reporting of the WTO protests.
• Asia Times looks at the WTO protesters and what they're on about: WTO hype and all that junk.
• It's 14:30 and looks like lunchtime is over - a group of perhaps 40 Korean protesters charged the police line, to be greeted with oodles of pepper spray (it looks just like silly string). The cops haven't budged an inch and are giving as good as they're getting. Give 'em hell, boys. That said, the media is getting desperate - they're starting to replay highlights from the morning session and one even cut across to other news.
• Josephy Stiglitz on the failure and problems with the Doha round.
• The WTO can promote both free trade and human rights.
• Pascal Lamy has updated his blog, noting the gulf between the public's perception and reality of the WTO. It's an interesting insight into to mind of a key player in these talks.
• Do these Korean farmers realise the water bottles they are using to wash the pepper spray out of their eyes is Bonaqua, owned by the Coca-Cola company?
• Here's a pro-free trade blog covering the ins and outs of the ministerial conference and negotiations. And another by a pro-trade economist.
• Huge uproar over a TV reporter who donned a helmet despite not being in danger.
• It's now 19:30, and the protesters are holding a candlelight vigil. Besides freezing their butts off, many are wearing green hats...and green hat means something quite amusing in Chinese.

• Below the jump I've posed Statfor's piece on the Shanwei shootings and China's situation, including a map of some of the major recent protests in China. Also Sam Crane on the importance of reciting names and Dongzhou. And related is the Chinese government's struggles with property rights protests.
• ESWN on bridge and ladder blogs.
• A note to China and Japan: both of you need to shut up and think.
• Sure it's history, but so what? The brothels of Lyndhurst Terrace.
• Japan's samurai robots.
• New (to me) HK blog: DGNYHK
• Businessmen being forced to choose between Tawian and China.
• What living in Beijing is really like.
• Beijing's historical fantasies and "invasion" of India.
• It's always easy to say kids in today's push-button, video-gamed, internet-addicted world are a lost cause...but behold the patience taken to make this. Apparently even some kids have too much time on their hands.
• Simon Hunt on China's changing economic priorities and what the impact will be.
• A Chinese court pardons a bra burglar.
• Waiting for Taiwan's PFP to die. And the KMT is on the move.
• 60% of Taiwanese fake orgasms...not always when men are present, either.
• The LA Times editorialises on China's PR problem.
• Japanese Kamikaze pilots vs. today's human bombs.
• A noted Beijing public interest lawyer is being shut down.
• Today's NSFW site of the day: Yenx publishes and translates fliers from Japanese call girl services (via JP). Proof you really can find anything on the interweb.
• Cool site of the day: graffiti from Pompeii (via Mutantfrog).

The Shanwei Shootings and China's Situation
By George Friedman

Last week, a group of Chinese villagers staged a demonstration against a wind-power project near Shanwei, a town in Guangdong province about 100 miles from Hong Kong. In the first incident, protesters blocked access to the site of the wind-power generation project. The next day, Dec. 6, demonstrators returned. According to Chinese official reports, they were led by three men -- Huang Xijun, Lin Hanru and Huang Xirang -- and were armed with knives, steel spears, sticks, dynamite and Molotov cocktails. Members of the local People's Armed Police fired tear gas at the crowd, hoping to break things up, but the three leaders rallied the crowd to continue what, depending on who was telling the story, was either a protest or attack. According to the description of events given by the Chinese government, the demonstrators started to throw explosives at the police as night fell. The police opened fire. Official reports said that three people were killed, eight wounded.

The protests in Shanwei had gone on for quite a while before coming to a head last week. The land for the power project was confiscated a few years ago. The farmers who worked the land were never compensated for their dislocation. They formally petitioned for their money in 2004 but were ignored. Public demonstrations began in August 2005, continuing intermittently. With no compensation forthcoming, the protests escalated and then exploded, with last week's incident marking the first reported shootings of demonstrators in China by official security forces since Tiananmen Square in 1989.

The shooting is new. The pattern is not. There has been intensifying unrest in China over the past year -- frequently, as in this case, over issues that have been simmering for years. This has been particularly true for peasants who have seen their land confiscated by the government for industrial projects. Money is issued to local officials by state-owned enterprises and other investment groups to cover the cost of the land. That money passes through the regional and local bureaucracies. By the time it should reach the owners, there often is nothing left; it has been stolen by officials at various levels. No one denies the farmers' claims to the land, but no one acts to compensate them. The laborers go from being small farmers to being destitute.

This is a critical process at the heart of Chinese industrialization. The purchase of land, including forced sale, is considered necessary for Chinese economic development. However, Chinese economic development is driven as much by corruption as by land. The government in Beijing has no particular desire to see the farmers dispossessed; on the contrary, the money is made available for delivery to the farmers. But the diversion of funds is hard-wired into the process. It is one of the primary means for capital formation in China.

One of the paths to entrepreneurship in China is to become a government official who can use one's public office for personal savings and networking -- accumulating enough money and useful contacts to move into business later. With massive expropriations of land over the past decade designed to facilitate economic growth, the opportunities -- and compulsion -- to steal money intended for farmers is powerful. In order to hold onto his job, a government official must maintain a system of relationships with superiors, colleagues and subordinates. These relationships are based on money. If the official doesn't find the money to hold his place in the bureaucracy, he will lose it. Therefore, the diversion of funds is built into the system.

The Chinese government wants it both ways. On the one hand, it does not want unrest among farmers. On the other hand, the Communist Party elite in Beijing live by patronage. They have risen through the system because of the web of relationships that makes Chinese industrialization possible. They can, in very specific cases, take action against cases of corruption. However, a systematic attack on the causes of corruption is impossible, without a systematic attack on their own infrastructure.

This is particularly true in rapidly developing provinces like Guangdong. The interface between the new economy and the old has become a battlefield. The old economy was land-based: Mao created a peasant economy that was overlaid by attempts to industrialize. The new economy regards land as an input into the industrial machine. However, given the nature of the Chinese political system, the farmers are not simply bought out -- they are forced off the land. And that can lead to social explosions.

The recent events in Shanwei are unique only in that they resulted in gunfire and death, and because they were brought to light by the anti-Communist media. After these reports were picked up and widely circulated by the international media, the government in Beijing acknowledged what had occurred, adding details that appeared to show that the demonstrators forced the police into shooting. But later, the government announced that the head of the police unit involved had been arrested -- which seems to imply that the story as originally told by the Chinese wasn't altogether accurate. Why arrest the cop if explosives were being hurled at police?

The specifics of what happened, of course, have no geopolitical consequence. What is important is that tensions in China have been rising steadily. Thousands of demonstrations (74,000, according to figures released last year by the government) have taken place -- some reportedly violent, if not fatal. In one case earlier this year, residents protesting corruption related to land seizures took control of their town, forcing the police out. The Chinese government appeared to capitulate to the demonstrators, giving into their demands -- but weeks later, those who had participated in the rising were quietly arrested. In another incident, which also turned deadly, brute squads believed to have been hired by local officials and businesses attacked protesters. There are numerous other examples to draw from.

Beneath the surface, a number of things are taking place. The Chinese economy has been growing at a frantic pace. This is not necessarily because the economy is so healthy, nor because many of these industrial projects make economic sense. In fact, the government in Beijing has been very clear that the new projects frequently don't make a great deal of economic sense, and has been trying to curb them (though it does not necessarily command obedience in every case from provincial or local governments). On the other hand, China needs to run very hard to stay in place. Within what we will call the entrepreneurial bureaucracy -- with pyramiding, undercapitalized, highly leveraged projects being piled one on top of the other -- new investment projects are needed in order to generate cash that stabilizes older, failing projects. Slowing down and consolidating is not easy when there are bank loans coming due and when money has to be spread around in order to maintain one's position in the system.

That means that aggressive economic growth is needed. It also means that massive social dislocation -- including theft of land -- is embedded in the Chinese system. The flashpoint is the interface between the rapidly spreading industrial plants and the farmers who own the land. The bureaucratic entrepreneurs need not only the land, but also the money that legally is due to the farmers.

China is a mass of dispossessed farmers, urban workers forced into unemployment by the failure of state-owned enterprises, and party officials who are urgently working to cash in on their position. It is a country where the banking system has been saved from collapse by spinning off bad debts -- at least $600 billion worth, or nearly half the GDP of China -- into holding companies. This maneuver cleaned up the banks' books and allowed Western banks to purchase shares in them, shoring them up. But it also left a huge amount of debt that is owed internally to people who will never see the funds. Imagine the U.S. savings-and-loan scandal growing to a size that was nearly half of the national GDP. As it happened, in the United States the federal government swallowed a great deal of the S&L bad loans -- but in China, these bad loans would just about wipe out the country's currency reserves, assuming that the numbers provided by the government are valid.

Under such circumstances, it is no surprise that Chinese money is leaving the country, flowing into the safe havens of U.S. T-Bills or offshore mineral deposits. Moreover, it is not clear that China's economy is continuing to grow. China's imports of oil have topped out and, by some reports, have started to decline -- yet the Chinese are continuing to report unabated growth rates. How can the economy be growing rapidly while oil imports decline? The country lacks sufficient energy reserves to fuel such growth, nor can that level of growth be coming from service industries. At any rate, growth rates do not by themselves connote economic health. The rate of return on capital is the ultimate measure of economic success. Anyone prepared to lose money can generate rapid revenue growth. And anyone facing cash-flow crises due to debt burden knows how easy it is to slip into revenue-growth obsession. The Chinese certainly have.

There is, therefore, a tremendous tension within China's new economy. The root problem is simple: Capital allocation has been driven by political and social considerations more than by economic ones. Who gets loans, and at what rates, frequently has been decided by the borrower's relation to the bureaucracy, not by the economic merits of the case. As a result, China, as a nation, has made terrible investments and is trying to make up for it with rapid growth. That is where things get difficult: As before with Japan and East Asia, the economy is thrown into a frenzy of growth in efforts to stabilize the system, but that growth throws off cash that cannot easily be capitalized and therefore is invested abroad. Meanwhile, bad debts -- stemming from continued investment into nonviable or unprofitable businesses, for social or political reasons -- surge, and the government tries to come up with ways to shuffle the debt around. In other words, the origin of the problem is simple -- but the evolution of the problem becomes dizzyingly complex.

This leads to stresses within the advanced economic sector. In China's case, these manifest as competition between different political factions for access to the funds needed to maintain their enterprises. But that is nothing compared to the tension between the new economy and farmers and the unemployed. As the system tries to stabilize itself, it seeks both to grow and to become more efficient. As it grows, the farmers are forced to give up their land. And as it seeks efficiency, industrial workers lose their jobs.

This is an explosive mix in any country, but particularly so in China, which has a tradition of revolution and unrest. The idea that the farmers will simply walk away from their land or that the unemployed will just head back to the countryside is simplistic. There are massive social movements in play that combine the two most powerful forces in China: workers and peasants. Mao did a lot of work with these two groups. Their interests are now converging. The decisions of the bureaucratic entrepreneurs are now causing serious pain, which is becoming evident in increasing social unrest. At Shanwei, that unrest broke into the open, complete with casualties.

The important thing to note is that both the quantity and intensity of these confrontations is increasing. While the Western media focus on the outer shell of China's economic growth -- the side that is visible in Western hotels throughout major cities -- the Chinese masses are experiencing simultaneously both the costs of industrialization and the costs of economic failure. The sum of this equation is unrest. The question is how far the unrest will go.

At the moment, there does not appear to be any national organization that speaks for the farmers or unemployed workers. The risings are local, driven by particular issues, and are not coordinated on any national scale. The one group that tried to create a national resistance, Falun Gong, has been marginalized by the Chinese government. China's security forces are capable, growing and effective. They have prevented the emergence of any nationalized opposition thus far.

At the same time, the growth and intensification of unrest is there for anyone to exploit. It won't go away, because the underlying economic processes cannot readily be brought under control. In China, as elsewhere, the leadership cadre of any mass movement has been made up of intellectuals. But between Tiananmen Square and jobs in Westernized industries, the Chinese intellectuals have been either cowed or hired. China is now working hard to keep these flashpoint issues local and to placate localities that reach the boiling point -- at least until later, when arrests can be made. That is what they are doing in Shanwei. The process is working. But as the economy continues to simultaneously grow and worsen, the social unrest will have to spread.

The discussion about China used to be about "hard" and "soft" landings -- terms that were confined to economics. The events in Shanwei raise the same question in another domain, the political. Police shooting down demonstrators is not an everyday event in China or anywhere else. But it has happened, and this event didn't just come from nowhere. The question of soft and hard landings now must be considered more literally than before.

And in China, hard landings over the past couple of centuries have been bloody affairs indeed.

The first day of the conference proper. Inside, the Americans have already upped the ante, saying the elimination of cotton subsidies (deemed a key project to helping developing countries) is tied to broader agricultural subsidy cuts and saying a heads of government meeting may be needed to take talks forward - that's a vieled sleight at trade ministers, saying they need their bosses to take over because they're all useless. Good luck to the city hosting that gathering!

But as usual there's far more interesting things happening outside the convention centre. The SCMP is going to town on this, with liftouts and massive coverage, including a prominent pointer to their website...which requires paid access, and a cheery "We welcome all the delegates and wish the meeting every success." That should put delegates in the right frame of mind! They even ask for "citizen journalists"...see below.

For those that are wondering what all the fuss is about, Jake van der Kamp save me from having to explain why Italian textile workers and Korean farmers are their own worst enemy in opposing free trade, stealing from the poor to give to themselves and missing the real problems of the WTO. The full article is below the jump.

Other reading

This will be updated throughout the day.

• The SCMP has thoughtfully put together a graphic and article of all the crowd control techniques to be used. See below the jump at the bottom.
• More amazingly, the SCMP is getting in on the "citizen journalist" act:

  Here is your chance to become a citizen journalist. With the WTO ministerial conference getting under way today, opportunities abound for capturing newsworthy images on your mobile phone or video camera. SCMP.com would like to highlight the very best video clips and still images produced by citizen journalists....The SCMP - and our readers - look forward to seeing your work.

  Remember, SCMP.com charges for online access. Outsourcing journalisms' moment has arrived! What if citizen journalists do a better job than the SCMP's own team? This citizen journalist thing seems to be taking off.
• A look at the precautions the press are taking in covering "the story of the year". I imagine many reporters dream of reporting from a war zone, and this is as close as most Hong Kong journalists will ever get to it. That's partly why they are talking up the chances of violence.
• That said, when the SCMP reports the Korean Peasants League considers suicides a legitimate option in protesting the WTO talks, you realise how lunny some of these people are. That said, this same group couldn't get themselves organised enough to book hotel rooms at the Metropole. Perhaps suicide is Darwin's way?
• Doug Crets at Curbside reports on the security preparations for the big event, including that hotels are spending HK$500,000 each on security.
• Lin Kui-Ming in The Standard has an excellent op-ed noting why Hong Kongers are not behind the protesters and the potential for violence is lower than in Seattle or Cancun: because Hong Kongers are pro-globalisation. Glutter explains her gut instinct is to support the principles of free trade. Also Joanthan Cheng describes why Hong Kong is a great example of the benefits of free trade.
• Immigration let in Jose Bove, well known McDonalds renovator, into Hong Kong after a slight (6 hour) delay. All these detentions at the airport are amazing - I always thought you had to be a Filippino to be stopped.
• Here's a peaceful motto for you: Derail, dismantle, destroy (via FH)
• Over at Curbside ESWN translates a Chinese blogger on the WTO in Hong Kong: My mom, or terrorist.
• Fortress Hong Kong girds for the WTO - another review of the expected chaos. With so much expectation, surely the reality can only disappoint?
• A WTO protester's diary.
• More pictures and reports of closures and disruption due to the meeting.
• Shaky's swampy count is currently at zero.
• Salon on why South Korean farmers are the WTO's most lethal enemy.
• The protest march is going on as I type this (around 14:20 HK time) - as this sorry band march through the streets of Causeway Bay, it seems there are more people watching than protesting. It appears yellow rainjackets are the clothing du jour. As a co-worker observed, there's far less people in Causeway Bay than on a typical shopping day. No Korean farmers have committed suicide....yet. They're not going to get the WTO quaking in their sweatshop sneakers with this. For a bunch of peasants, they all seem very at home protesting in the big city.
• Prominent blogger Dan Drezner is in town for the meeting. He's reporting on what's happening inside the ministerial meeting...which in short appears to be not much.
• And it's official, the protesters are nuts. They are swimming in Victoria Harbour, just outside the convention centre. Not only is the water cold, it must rate as amongst the most polluted ocean water in the universe. One guy's carrying a South Korean flag. Perhaps this is the first attempted suicide?
• The current score: Pro-WTO protesters: 1, everyone else: 0. The media's looking at a real problem: deadlines are starting to loom and nothing's really happened. Long Hair got peppered sprayed and that's about it. And there's acres of newspaper to fill? Actually, Hong Kongers are coming out winners: the traffic is great right now.
• Aren't Hong Kong's cops looking spiffy in their riot gear. Talk about money well spent. And they haven't even got it dirty or spoilt yet! At the moment (17:00 HK time) we've got the cops, media and protesters all standing on the street looking at each other and waiting for something to happen. I dare someone to scream out "Korean rice farmers suck"!
• It's been a couple of hours and the police line has held. Liberal use of pepper spray and there seems to be more spectactors than there are protesters. Dare I say this is more a "for media" production than a real protest. Long Hair seems to be receiving more than his fair share of pepper spare. Are other scores being settled?
• Irony alert: Behind the scenes at Tamar, the official protest site...is a BMW showroom!

Protesters shoot themselves in foot when they oppose free trade

"Many workers have lost their jobs and their wages have gone down in Italy. The working conditions have also become worse. Textile workers in Italy are most affected. We have come to protest against the talks and we want to tell the world that workers' rights should be respected and we should not be exploited."

Italian protester
Anti-WTO rally

Let us take it straight to the statistics. I have in front of me a United States labour department survey on production wages across the world in 2004. It puts the average wage rate in Italy at US$13.10 per hour. At current exchange rates that would be more like US$15.50 per hour.

Now let's try some comparable production wage rates in poorer Asian countries. These were not covered by the US labour department survey as they fell below its horizons but I have them from statistics published directly by these countries.

For China we shall make it US$6. This is worked out as an estimate from the official figure of 14,000 yuan a year. For Indonesia we come to about US$3.70 and for Bangladesh about US$2.40.

Oh yes, there is one thing I forget to tell you. These last three figures are for average daily wages, not hourly and I believe we are talking of more than an eight-hour workday in these countries. Let us just say that the average Italian production worker is paid somewhere between 30 and 40 times as much as the average poorer Asian one.

So are we to take it as the Italian point of view that the rights of workers mean the rights of Italian workers only and that it is the right of Italian workers to be on the winning side of this income disparity forever?

It is certainly an interesting notion. Exploitation in Italy is unfair. Exploitation in Asia, well, who cares? If textile workers in Bangladesh can compete with their Italian counterparts, then they must be cheating and not allowed to export their wares.

Here is another one from yesterday's paper, this time from a representative of a South Korean farm workers union - "Many farmers feel desperate as they can't make a living in Korea and they are deprived of their right to survival ... The WTO supports free trade, but farmers' and workers' rights are totally ignored."

Now turn to the bar chart. It shows you a comparison of retail prices for rice in US dollars per kilogram for those Asian countries that publish these figures. The rice varieties vary but I have taken the premium variety in each case.

Yes, Korean rice farmers do not gouge their customers quite as severely as Japanese ones do.

Japan is a byword in the world for inefficiently produced and costly rice.

Korean farmers do quite well for themselves, nonetheless. If they still cannot make money from rice sold to consumers at seven times the price that prevails in poorer Asian countries, then perhaps they should do a bit of research on their rice growing techniques.

Try it another way. The red line in the second chart shows you the retail price in US dollars per kilogram of locally produced beef in Korea. The blue line shows you the equivalent price in Hong Kong. We in Hong Kong pay only about 11 per cent of what Koreans pay for a cut of beef and yet we raise no cattle ourselves. Of course, Koreans also have the alternative of imported beef and it costs them only a fourth of what their local beef does. This is what upsets Korean farmers. They want beef imports, already highly restricted, banned from their market.

If you were a Korean consumer and made aware of these facts, would you really have wanted to join Sunday's protests here against free trade?

I accept that the WTO is still somewhat of a rich countries club held hostage to the self-interest of its richer members. I also accept that this results in inequities for poorer countries.

But let us make a distinction between what wealthy WTO hypocrites say and what they do. What they say is right. Free trade is a very worthwhile cause for the world's poor. It is the only way to bring fair wages to those Bangladeshi textile workers and fair prices to Korean consumers at last.

What they do is another matter but it amazes me that so many protesters fail to make this distinction and protest against their own interests when they object to free trade.

Blunt facts about mob control

As the WTO ministerial gets under way, a key issue is an extreme form of customer relationship management: crowd control. The authorities have reason to fret about how the inevitable protests unfold because major WTO events usually degenerate into riots spearheaded by anti-capitalist radicals. In fact, violence has become such a staple that Grand Theft Auto maker Rockstar Games has developed a WTO riot game called State of Emergency. No wonder police are reportedly stocking up on riot shields and rubber bullets, while the Highways Department is ensuring paving slabs are firmly in place so that protesters cannot use them as missiles.

Despite the rise of internet- and mobile-phone-enabled planning, at its core, rioting remains an enduringly primitive, almost caveman-like activity. In contrast, the technology designed to curb and prevent it has evolved dramatically.

Originally, cops around the globe relied on sticks, sorry, hardwood batons, with which they battered demonstrators into submission. Stick fighting was destined to be superseded by rubber bullets and Tazer, both of which are potentially deadly; another successor, tear gas, is relatively harmless but can drift with the wind.

Hence the emergence of an armada of hi-tech alternatives. One, the "non-lethal acoustic device" pioneered by police in America, and now deployed in Iraq, uses loud, focused sound that can travel about 2km. Commenting on its power, the head of the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department technology exploration program Commander Sid Heal reportedly said: "You don't appreciate how powerful this stuff is until you stand a mile away and can't see the transmitter - but can hear every word in a Queen song."

"At a quarter mile, it sounds as clear as a car radio; at a half a mile, you have to raise your voice to talk to the guy next to you; at three quarters of a mile, labourers raking up leaves were putting in music requests," Mr Heal said.

Up close, a blast can be disturbing enough to disperse a crowd. Closer still, the sound can be scary and painful - or worse.

Earlier this year in Jerusalem, the Israeli Army used a device dubbed "The Scream" to break up protesters. They must have scattered fast because The Scream emits noise at frequencies that affect the inner ear, inflicting dizziness and sickness, or even damaging hearing.

Another fearsome hi-tech crowd control weapon, the Active Denial System (ADS), fires a 95-gigahertz microwave beam meant to heat skin and cause pain, but no physical damage. Built by the Massachusetts-based hi-tech defence firm Raytheon, which prides itself on developing "hot technologies", the ADS is slated for deployment in Iraq by 2006.

The ADS resembles a TV dish, and rides mounted on a Humvee. Critics fear that, despite Pentagon assurances that it does no lasting damage, "Rumsfeld's ray gun" could cook victims, causing cancer, or just blinding them.

The pulsed energy projectile (PEP) built by California-based Mission Research and meant to be aimed at ringleaders, is a ray gun with a kick. The PEP fires an invisible plasma pulse that heats up the air so that it explodes and creates a "flash-bang" designed to rock and hurt, but not kill.

Nonetheless, like many non-lethal weapons, the PEP appears distinctly sadistic. The sensible solution may lie left-field. Think "calmatives" and gross, but gentle, "malodorants".

Calmative agents include a profusion of psychoactive substances whose effects range from inducing sleep to overpowering hallucinations. Some such as ketamine, which was used to treat combat casualties in Vietnam, manage both.

Malodorant agents ("stink bombs") have existed since the World War II. Blessed with names such as Who-Me?, they sound silly, but are crudely effective.

Guess which smell is most effective. Clue: in 2001, one obscure Texan biotech firm patented the smell of human faeces to secure its grasp on the ultimate malodorant, which would surely erode the will of any mob, no matter how angry.

Other offbeat options include sticky foam and super lubricants designed to cause slip-ups. To some, these innovations may seem rather slapstick and raise the spectre of the proverbial mad scientist.

However, if protesters play up here, the ideal tactic might well be to neutralise them with soft, strange weapons rather than get physical - that is, thrash and shoot them. Nobody wants to see the blood that defines a real state of emergency.

A WTO free zone...

• James J. Na reflects on blending into the American melting pot in Once was an Asian.
• The field of dreams in Jiangsu turns Running Dog from cynic to believer.
• DEBKA does China.
• What Hong Kongers earn in various jobs.
• A revolution we can all back: China's sexual revolution.
• China's most popular internet search terms.
• Chinese labour law poker cards.
• The RMB through the ages (via Danwei).
• Michael Bolton rocks Shanghai.
• Human capital and China's rising advertising and media industries.
• Looking for somewhere interesting to stay in Beijing?
• Richard notes even the CCP seems to be admitting that the Dongzhou massacre is a mess. For those looking to catch up, MeiZhongTai has a roundup of the roundups on Dongzhou.
• The great Chinese fruit sticker debacle.
• The East Asia Summit and new Asian order - it still includes the USA.
• The complex world of Japanese toilet seats.
• The Asian History Carnival is up and full of good links.
• I've got some friends about to move to Beijing, so Will's guide to things to like about Beijing's winter will come in handy.
• Stop blaming China on counterfeiting - it's North Korea.
• (13:30) The question on Chinese investing no-one asks.
• Beijing's taxi drivers are no longer political commentators.
• 50,000 corrupt Chinese officials punished in the past 2 years.
• Prosperity and the sex ratio - wealth is making things worse, not better.
• A Chinese politician's humour.
• China's international peacekeeping and relief efforts in 2005.

Somewhat amazingly, life goes on outside of the WTO conference. And today's papers contain three related but interesting reports on China's economy.

I bet you didn't know China's economy grew 20% overnight! More worryingly, China has done an economic census and discovered it has undercounted its GDP by US$300 billion! From the SCMP:

China's booming economy, already the seventh largest in the world, has been understated by as much as US$300 billion, the country's first nationwide economic census has discovered. The sum, equal to nearly 20 per cent of last year's US$1.65 trillion gross domestic product, highlights the serious understatement of data on the nation's sizzling services sector, according to mainland economists who have been briefed about the census results.

Then China's consumer prices rose only 1.3% in November, a figure lower than expected. This will give the government room to ease fuel and electricity pricing controls but has again sparked worries about deflation. But for the monetists out there, work this out. China's money supply growth is expanding rapidly, according to the SCMP:

China's money supply expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years last month, the People's Bank of China said yesterday on its website. M2, which includes cash and all deposits, grew 18.3 per cent from a year earlier after expanding 18 per cent in October, the central bank said. It was the biggest gain since March last year.

So to how explain this disconnect between roaring money supply and low inflation? There's two possible answers: one is that the money supply figures are wrong and/or meaningless, of which there's a high chance in China's rapidly changing economy. Secondly, the extra money is going into areas not measured by the inflation numbers. This has happened in many Western countries. What would be those areas? Asset markets: in China, property is the main one, although some would also go into shares and other markets.

Can you say bubble?

Update: This seems appropriate: why is Shenzhen's real estate market going crazy?

If too much WTO isn't enough, you can always trail through the WTO category posts.

My office is about 1 kilometre from the Wan Chai Convention Centre, where this week's WTO meeting is being held. Here's some observations of what life is like at the moment:

* Security is incredibly tight. Our office building foyer is swarming with security staff, who have established a single checkpoint for staff and a seperate one for visitors. Lunchtime was chaos, with multitudes of deliveries going cold as delivery people registered. Each elevator has a security guard in it, an impressive feat in a building with 8 banks of 4 lifts each. Then there's the regular patrols of security throughout the building.
* On top of that, half our staff have been moved to the contingency/backup site, just in case, to allow the smooth functioning of operations. And we had a full fire drill late last week as a pre-WTO test.
* The Coke machine won't be refilled all week.
* On the streets of Central I counted 5 sets of police patrols in the space of 10 minutes this afternoon.
* The b@st@rds at the Cheung Kong Centre have closed the small park behind their building, forcing everyone up and down Battery Path instead, and 8 guards were protecting the blocked off park. Why? Are trees anti-WTO?
* The Christmas marketplace in Chater Square is going strong.
* Many schools are closing tomorrow, including JC's - even though it's in Aberdeen, on the other side of the island. Don't ask me why.
* While yesterday was a glorious, clear and warm sunny day, today is grey, overcast and cold. This anti-WTO mob brought the gloomy weather to suit their gloomy mood.
* Hosting this thing is costing Hong Kong north of HK$150 million. There's they typical newspaper blather of what a waste and why would anyone want to hold such a meeting. Don't believe it - Hong Kong's loving this. It gives us a precursor to life when the PLA leave the barracks to suppress the pro-democracy movement.
* Here's an idea of security around the convention centre.

Feel free to add your own observations.

The WTO protesters should have no doubts as to which side of the border they ought to be on. Reports now place the death toll from the riots in Dongzhou village near Shanwei City in Guangdong Province (where local security forces opened fire against demonstrators last week) at 20 people, up from 3 when the Chinese government issued a statement last week Tuesday.

Amnesty International made a statement that the deaths from the riots were the worst inflicted by the government on its own people since Tiananmen, and the first time since that incident that security forces have actually opened fire. Of course we have no way of knowing that - maybe a few of the mine disasters were mis-reported... The area was cordoned off to visitors, and trucks in the vicinity reverted to tried-and-true CCP tactics of blaring PA announcements of "Trust the Government". According to the Taipei Times:

Yesterday, government banners hung at the entrance of Dongzhou said, "Following the law is the responsibility and obligation of the people" and "Don't listen to rumors, don't let yourself be used."

The 170 villagers involved in the protests, as our readers will know, are far from alone in making their grievances known the their governments. The Independent of Britain had this interesting factoid:

Official government figures say that 3.76m people took part in at least 74,000 protests in 2004, but many more go unrecorded.

Sunday marked the first day of WTO protests, both pro (crowd estimate: 1) and anti (crowd estimate: 4,000 - although using last week's democracy march counting estimates, this number could really be anywhere between 4 and 40,000).

Who are the real winners and losers out of the WTO talks? The losers are easy to identify: already business is down in Wan Chai, ironically hurting the myriad small businesses and migrant workers these anti-WTO types pretend to stand for. Security is noticeably tighter at office buildings and hotels across the city. The protesters are getting prepared for their "peaceful" marches, purchasing gas masks and stealing uniforms.

The winners are harder to pick. The local media are having a field day. The English language press are preparing for blanket coverage while running full page ads from protectionist groups: today's is one from US steel manufacturers with a little girl standing in front of a portrait of a steel mill and asking "What if this were the only way our kids could see a U.S. factory?" It's intended to be a rhetorical question, although I don't know there are millions of America schoolkids clambouring for an excursion to the local factory, or that it's a good excuse to subsidise and prop up "ailing" manufacturers (who are doing better than ever). Clearly the other winners are tunnel users and the vast entourages wondering around Hong Kong, and Hong Kong's luxury retailers. No one spends like a trade ministry delegation.

British activist Tom Grundy was dressed as a chicken and held a sign that said, "WTO: more dangerous than chicken flu." "We need to raise awareness of the true intention of the WTO," he said. "It's undemocratically elected. It undermines and overrides any law a country wants to bring to protect workers and the environment."

There is another irony. To some extent the protesters have valid points. World trade is unfair as it stands, with massive subsidies and market distortions making the world's poor poorer for the sake of rich French framers' vanity. Labour does get exploited. But the answer isn't to destroy the one multilateral avenue for negotiating improvements in world trade. To compound the irony, many of these same anti-globalisation protesters are fiercly pro-UN. Apparently some kinds of globalisation are OK.

When the various protesters look around Hong Kong and see widespread prosperity driven by unilateral free trade and capitalism, will it cause any of them to question their flimsy assumptions? Unlikely, because logic and rationality seldom triumph over dogma and faith.

Other links

This will be updated throughout the day.

You can follow all the events and updates via the Curbside at the WTO site, maintained by The Standard and HK University. I will be helping them out.

• A professor takes on the 3 common claims of anti-globalisers and anti-capitalists and comes to this conclusion: the anti-globalists and anti-capitalists aren't crashing the barricades on the road to prosperity, they are the barricades.
• A site of Junk WTO photos.
• A blog by some Korean anti-WTO activists here in the Big Lychee.
• First impressions from a blogger covering MC6 for Reuters.
• Unsurprisingly, Starbucks is a potential target for protesters. Couldn't they be more original and all head out to Lantau and protest about Disney. No-one's going to be inconvenienced then!
• New to me HK blogger Foxymoron says the 3,500 protesters yesterday were outnumbered by 9,000 nervous police.
• LfC says HK's Chinese language press are negative on the WTO meeting.
• Greenpeace met WTO delegates at the airport.
• In case you're looking for it, here's the website of the Hong Kong People's Alliance on WTO (although I don't recall them being democratically elected).
• Oxfam's "big noise" protest only managed somewhere between 50 and 100 people.
• Shaky's onto something: the megaphone helmet. Imagine shouting "sod off, swampy" into that!
• Details of how the HK police have prepared for this week.

Outrage strikes! Our Coke machine won't be refilled this week due to the disruption! Now they've gone too far! Let the Coke through...us greedy capitalists need it. And another point - if these gas masks were stolen to avoid tear gas, would anyone notice in Hong Kong's polluted city centre?

Revealed: one of Hong Kong police's major weapons against WTO protesters: playing at loud volumes the Christmas Carol musak that is taking over shopping malls and elevators all over the city. Film at 11.

Which of the wide variety of brainless causes does our scantily clad friend here espouse? Is she fighting for higher food prices for Korean families? Higher clothes prices for Europeans? Higher steel prices for Americans? Or is she fighting for foreign-owned factories in Southeast Asia to be shut down so the workers are thrown back into subsistence farming and have to pull their kids out of school?

The Economist covers the 12/4 Hong Kong democracy march (no sub. req'd for that one) with some interesting points along the way, including the diminishing aims of the democracy movement (from universal suffrage in '07/08 to now just a timetable), the Anson Chan factor, and the potential benefits of democracy for China as demonstrated by the success of the Kuomintang in Taiwan's recent elections. Nothing earth-shattering but it's a fair overview of the march and actual situation in Hong Kong at present. But the final paragraph is baffling:

Meanwhile, comfortingly for China, as well as for Mr Tsang, there appears to be little appetite in Hong Kong for sustained, let alone violent, protests that could threaten the territory's recent recovery from its prolonged economic malaise. China's leaders should now be clearer what Hong Kong wants, but also of the limits to which it is prepared to go to get it.

If anyone can decypher the meaning of the article's last paragraph, please explain it to me.

If you only watch thing this week, make it the way of sushi. Improve your Japanese, learn the ancient rituals involved with Japan's favourite snack food and enjoy.

Thanks to Curzon for the tip.

On a completely unrelated note, a new HK blog: Maybe HK. And the world's favourite English language Chinese blogger, ESWN is featured in Hong Kong's widely read Next magazine and LfC has translated some choice quotes. It's a just reward for the English language model worker award winner.

Back from Tokyo, where I couldn't help but wonder a couple of things:

• Jared Diamond lauds Japan's excellent forestry management (albeit while still having a dig at their outsourcing of "resource exploitation"), and yet Japan's the world's third biggest greenhouse gas producer. Does one cancel the other?
• There has been talk elsewhere that people don't often bother to vote because in economic terms the marginal value of a vote is very close to zero. The best counter to that is what's happening now in Hong Kong - many people are giving up hours of their time to march, or to organise, or to blog, or to write articles, or to lobby for democracy. Assuming pro-democracy campaigners are rational (economically, at least) there must be a value for voting that is significantly non-zero.
• While on democracy, in a way liberal democracy has basically "won" the ideology war. The proof? Even dictatorships pay lip service to it. North Korea is a "Democratic" republic; China's leadership often talks about it (even if it doesn't happen in practice). Why do they bother with lip service unless even these recalcitrants recognise that democracy is the most stable and most popular (albeit still imperfect) political model?
• Next week is WTO week here in Hong Kong. While nobody is looking forward to the dreaded chaos, I suspect (or at least hope) that it will not turn out half as bad as we all fear. Judging by the dual-layered shipping container barriers at Tamar, the anti-WTO protests could turn out to be nice cheap entertainment for the non-Disney goers amongst us.

On the subject of WTO, there is to be an anti- anti-WTO march on Sunday at Victoria Park. If you're rational, realise that free trade is a good thing and Hong Kong is a prime example of the good even unilateral zero trade barriers can be, go along. It won't be 250,000 people, but it would be good to prove the rabble-rousers and "peasant leagues" (ie professional protesters) that there are actually people that know they're wrong.

Before I get to the newest Jamestown Foundation China Brief, full service should resume Monday, WTO chaos permitting. OK, China Brief time:

1. China's countering of US influence in Asia - Willy Lam uses alphabet soup to summarise the newest version of the Great Game.
2. The costs of China's modernisation - industrialisation can be dirty, and it's now getting to the point China's environment is becoming a domestic political issue. What do you call a Chinese environmentalist? A red green? A green red?
3. Hu spurs debate on North Korean succession - maybe when Hu's finished with China (and he's come up with his obligatory theory to insert into the constitution) he can take on the Hermit Kingdom?
4. For you military nuts, there's modernising the PLA's logistics. That's the military logistics, not the PLA's corporate logistics. That's much tougher.

As we all know we will soon experience a visit from the World Trade Organization. The detentions have already started, with two members of the International League of People's Struggle and one from the May First Movement, all from the Philippines, kept back for several hours before being allowed into Hong Kong. My view is that the fact that these professional protesters are being allowed in at all is a significant concession on the part of the local authorities.

I stumbled onto a website this morning called CommonDreams.org, and had an article from a planned protest attendee about the Hong Kong Ministerial. It was a fascinating insight into the flaccid arguments of these anti-globalization protesters, who appear, at base, to be against growth in countries like China or India.

I do not think a refutation of this particular trade xenophobe's thesis is necessary, but I will quote some of the highlights:

The WTO aims to consolidate a series of policy reforms that many countries have implemented over the last 25 years, following IMF and World Bank structural adjustment programs in developing countries, and Reagan-Thatcher prescriptions in the US and Europe. Referred to as “free trade,” “ the Washington Consensus” or what we call “corporate globalization,” the policies include privatizing public services, weakening labor laws, deregulating industry, opening up to foreign investment, shrinking the non-military government, lowering of tariffs and subsidies, and focusing on exports over production for national markets.

This time period has seen a sharp decline in economic growth worldwide.

The WTO has failed to produce economic growth because this entire model is actually geared to increase the power of corporations in the governance of the global economy. Rather than governing just trade, the WTO is better understood as a global corporate power-grab, aiming to impose a one-size-fits-all set of rules on national issues of public services, intellectual property, agriculture, industrial development, and more. Under this flawed model of corporate globalization, not only is economic growth sluggish, but economic inequality has vastly increased, diminishing prospects for development and the attainment of universal economic human rights.

Land reform, food subsidies for the poor, and sustainable production are core elements of a fair and healthy food system. But the WTO rules are based on an ideology of food for export, not for eating.

Last night I had dinner with a well-known fund manager who expressed his disgust at Taiwan's parliament. Various politicians had apparently proposed a measure that would limit the spread between credit card interest rates and savings accounts to 10%. It was a populist move that the politicians had independently arrived at, irresponsibly thinking that while it would score them some points with the public, it would never actually pass. The responsible thing would have been for them to let the banks determine their own credit card APRs according to the dictates of the market. The banks of Taiwan are rather sluggish entities whose credit card businesses are their only real source of profitability.

But of course, it looks as though it will pass now, because so many politicians had already committed themselves to it. Given Taiwan's hollowing-out to China, this move to hamstring the banks, supposedly in favor of the public, will do little to improve the domestic economy (except punish delinquent payers less). My interlocutor used this opportunity to compare the stupidity of Taiwan's lawmakers with the wisdom of Beijing's technocrats, and posited that democracy has often failed [his own] Chinese race.

I found this conclusion appalling and intriguing in equal parts, and so we had a heated debate on the subject. We were able to agree that democracy can often produce inferior candidates to a benign autocracy, but that the trouble lay in when an autocracy picked a bad leader. And while China has been on a fairly good run for the last couple of decades (with some notable exceptional issues) I pointed out that the 180 years before that China had a very poor run indeed. Where do you stand?

For months and years now, we have all speculated on the incomprehensibility of Koizumi's continued visits to the Yasukuni War Shrine. He does it for domestic political reasons, we are told. And often the conversation ends there, or is resumed on some aspect of Japan's World War II past.

That is, of course, legitimate; Japan does have an historic legacy to which it has never fully faced up to, and that ignorance (whether feigned or genuine) is naturally offensive to its neighbors and is serving as a very effective vehicle for China to adopt the mantle of regional leadership in East Asia.

But as staggered as I have been by the baldness of the shrine visits from an international relations perspective, I have striven to understand the domestic pressure for Koizumi to do so. This article, and others I have read, seem to be coalescing into a pattern in my mind. It is not overly profound, and I apologise to those whom have realized this long ago. But it seems clear that the reason Japan has a desire to hearken back to its militaristic roots is precisely because China has grown far stronger in the last ten years than it has been at any time in the last 150. So if China's rise is prompting ever more hardline positions in the Japanese psyche towards its massive neighbor, and converting more of the population to the wisdom of shrine visits, China will only grow increasingly irritated and spend more on its military might as a result. Are there any 'soft-landing' scenarios for this relationship between Beijing and Tokyo, which appear to be in free fall? If there are, I'd like to hear them.

Before I begin, let me preface this rant by pointing out that although I have categorized this post under "Hong Kong people", I only refer to roaches here from a societal standpoint.

I read this article today about how two brothers running a Chinese restaurant called the Sea Palace in Somerset (in the UK) were actually fined 20,000 pounds(!) by the authorities. A roach apparently popped out, quite chipper and unhurt, from one unfortunate lady's king prawn dish. Clearly a zero tolerance policy.

Contrast this with the experience of my wife, when on lunch break at Pacific Place in Hong Kong, dining at the ZEN Cantonese restaurant. She has a roach phobia, let me say in advance. So imagine how distressed she must have become when she felt something odd crawling up her pant leg. She put a hand on the offending motion, and discovered to her horror that it felt winged and had six legs and mandibles.

She called sharply for attention from a waitress. She could not do much physically, however, other than trap the offending insect between the material of her pants and her bare skin. A waitress eventually ambled up, advised her to try to 'flush' it out, and when she was able to collect herself enough to do that (with some even more alarming misdirections) the waitress trapped it with a bowl and escorted it away.

Rather than offering her a free meal, however, they just gave an offhand apology and explained that the fumigator had been that day, causing some restlessness in the roaches' ranks.

I thought pesticide did more than that...but perhaps resturanteurs in the city have historically been more inured to pests. I don't normally cross-post, but you'll find a history of small nasties in Hong Kong here. To be fair, the incident I describe was a couple of years ago, so maybe ZEN's gotten that under control...

Well, it's been a few days since my last post, so I thought I'd weigh in with a rather topical article I read about SMS monitoring in China in the International Herald Tribune. Apparently surveillance of China's text messages will be stepped up in the wake of increasing amounts of criminal or otherwise illegal messages sent to local consumers' phones. 107,000 illegal SMSs have been found out this year, and 9,700 accounts have been shut down. 44% of the messages were banking scams (I'll be impressed if the standard Nigerian dictator letter can be composed in an SMS), with the others ads for prostitutes, porn or illegal lotteries.

The government is also considering a filtration system that would allow the government to quickly access messages with "false political rumors" or "reactionary remarks" (would that be orthodox Marxist-Leninist ideology?).

But ultimately a human being is still going to have to read suspect messages, particularly from known or suspected dissidents. And here's a hint about why the title to this post is what it is - the number of text messages sent in 2004 (when 20% less accounts were probably in existence?)? 217.8 BILLION. And no, that is not some mistake, some Chinese mislabeling of 'wan' as 'million'.

How long does it take you to read a text message? How about a hundred of 'em?

Wanted: office space for the PSB.

I will be travelling to the land of the automatic toilet warmer and bidet until Friday and will likely be out of blogging range. But fear not, I've got some activities to keep you occupied:

1. The forums are going strong. Take a look, start a topic and spark a controversy of your own.

2. I've been made a finalist of the Weblog Awards Best Asian Blog category. It is a very high calibre field and with only one exception I would feel comfotable voting for any of the finalists. But most importantly, use this opportunity to explore other blogs you may not typically read. Then even more importantly, vote for me! Once a day, every day.

Thank you already to fellow finalist Mr Miyagi, New Blog finalist Riding Sun, Top 1751-2500 finalist ZenPundit, top 1001-1750 finalist The Glittering Eye and others for their endorsements. You should vote for each of them in their respective categories, and naturally vote for Coming Anarchy for Best Blog Design.

These awards don't do much more than stroke the blogger's ego in a high-school style popularity contest; they are a desperate attempt to garner recognition and respect of peers for the insecure, self-doubting, paranoid types that run blogs. Exactly like the Oscars. So please vote for me - the alternative is therapy.

A super brief linklets today...

• China's gender imbalance and one child policy.
• Rules for Hong Kong demonstrations.
• The news Hong Kong's English media doesn't print.
• An interview with a Chinese businessman saying Western companies push for cheaper products is forcing Chinese manufacturers to cut corners and other problems with doing business with the West. Related is how not to get ripped off in Korea.
• China's economy is not ready to move smoothly up the value chain.
• Japan's non-existant foreigner crime wave.
• When you don't have elections at all, an ally winning by 91% seems normal.
• The spending habits of China's urban females.
• All Chinese mobile phone users will have to register with the government.
• Deflationary pressure in China.
• Liu Binyan, a true Chinese hero, passed away.

This won't get the publicity it should. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission says interest rate reform must come before currency reform in China. Liu Mingkang proceeds to give American politicians a lesson they should pay heed to but won't:

Liu said further reforms to the country's interest rate system would help companies better gauge currency risks, which would be crucial for introducing greater currency flexibility. "If you haven't got the full liberalization in interest rates, then you cannot give a pricing system for forwards and futures to hedge your foreign exchange risk," he said.

Is this what American politicians really want?

The Chinese are slowly taking the necessary steps to liberalise their financial markets. It could be quicker, but when you are transitioning the world's fourth biggest economy from a quasi-central planning system to something approximating an open market system, taking your time is not necessarily a bad thing.

This post is reposted at the top as it is updated. Please scroll down for other posts.

You've got to hand it to the organisers, a march in a crisp, clear and sunny winter's afternoon sure beats marching in the middle of the summer heat. With the Government and tycoons doing almost everything in their power to make people turn up for today's march (in spite of themselves), it should be a big one. The Don's real test will come in the days ahead - how will he react? Will he try and dismiss another display of people voting with their feet, or accept that even appointed governments sometimes need to listen to the people to retain legitimacy? Will he be able to prevent frothing at the mouth amongst pro-Beijingers and Beijing? And will everyone be home in time for tea?

Update 22:10

The most interesting part of the march so far is watching the media's coverage of it. In the comments Dave has told us the police estimate 40,000, which we can use as a minimum. ESWN has the "scorecard" for what each threshold crowd figure means for the democracy debate.

The score so far:

• Xinhua naturally calls it thousands and quotes the local commisar: Some bystanders told press that they support the government's constitutional development proposals and held that the most important thing for Hong Kong now is to maintain stability and keep economic growth. There's always "Beauties and their movie posters" if all this marching gets too much.
• The BBC vaguely refers to tens of thousands of marchers and was largely pre-written, and includes The BBC's Chris Hogg in Hong Kong said the march appeared to be much larger than many had predicted, with many ordinary citizens and their families taking part. Thank God I don't have to pay the licence fee.
• Reuters has decided tens of thousands means 60,000.
• Asia News says "at least 100,000" participated.
• The Financial Times ups the ante, saying hundreds of thousands and/or 250,000 marched.

ESWN is also counting the crowds via other sources. Inevitably a number will be reached and that will become the consensus. Who decides that number? The people counting on the day? No. The people who were marching? No. The papers and media spread across the world who will keep the story going for a couple of news cycles? You got it. My money is on 100,000 being the eventual number, because that makes it newsworthy enough for international reporters to push it with their editors for a while and it suits the democrats. Bear in mind this may or may not have been the real number. The point of the numbers game is all about one thing: will it be enough to force the government to ammend its constitutional reform package?

My biggest question is simple. How can crowd estimates vary from "thousands" to 250,000? Is it that easy to make that many people appear and disappear? Even for China that's a lot. Houdini would be impressed.

Update 12/5 09:04

"I am 60 years of age. I certainly want to see universal suffrage taking place in Hong Kong in my time. My feeling and my wish is the same as most other people participating in the rally today."

We've got crowd inflation, but timetable deflation!

Update 12/6

The Don is now under pressure on his reform package. His problem is simple: the democratic camp are not going to accept a sop on reducing the role of appointed district councillors, but Beijing aren't going to accept any kind of timetable towards universal suffrage. How is he going to fudge it? That's why he's the Chief. There is probably a way out: set a timetable for a timetable. No charge for the advice, Donald.

Other sites

• Glutter has plenty of photos from the day.
• LfC looks and compares the local media coverage of the march.
  *Gateway Pundit and Publius have links and pictures.
• Tom offers his thoughts and pictures from the march.
• The Useless Tree reflects on the meaning of Chinese democracy.
• (15:12) LfC quotes The Don saying participants are not just a "turnout figure", with photos to prove it!
• Beau notes the difference between the HK protest and others in America.
• ESWN has sets of numbers from different academic sources, all of which come out between 61,000 and 72,500.
• More photos from a local attendee: d.otted rhythm.
• (12/6) Asia Times looks at the rejuvinated democracy movement.
• The Frog in a Well history blog looks at provincialism and democracy in China.
• ESWN explains why he is so interested in the march numbers.
• TT wonders why the police were so unprepared this time around.

Out of the mouth of babes and all that...from The Standard article on claims HK Immigration is trying to keep anti-WTO activists out:

A senior government official said he believes the NGOs will increasingly resort to tactics of lying about harassment from police and issuing allegations of abuse at the hands of government officials for the sake of publicity.

"You're not going to get your name in the paper if you act like a flower- child," he said.

Slowly forming on the horizon is the next boondoggle, the HK-Zuhai-Macau "gamblers expressway". The latest estimate is the 29 kilometre bridge is going to cost more than HK$50 billion to construct, about $30 billion more than first thought. That's one hell of a jump in estimates. And you thought getting the home renovation quote was tricky. Only Hopewell's Gordon Wu has jumped at the chance to construct this bridge. That seems strange: under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, the builder of the bridge is able to collect tolls for a set period of time before hadning it over to the government. This typically means the operator can charge whatever they like in order to achieve their desired return on investment. The contracts are typically iron-clad and often governments are forced into making additional concessions to the operators.

For example, both the Eastern and Western harbour tunnels were built under this model. There was a massive hue and cry when tolls were raised at the Eastern Tunnel, but there isn't anything the Government can do about it. Absurdly the cheapest cross-harbour tunnel is the government owned Central tunnel, which is the most convenient geographically. But due to political pressure, the government keeps tolls at the Central tunnel artificially low, resulting in traffic chaos and huge jams at all hours (try getting through at 1am on a Saturday) while the other two tunnels are deserted.

BOT seems a great way for governments to get the private sector to build infrastructure at little or no cost to the public purse. But it is not the same a private sector road. For the gamblers' expressway the SAR government estimates traffic volumes could reach as high as 80,000 vehicles a day. I'm preapred to wager that bridge will never see that volume of traffic until China turns into a liberal democracy. Sir Gordon will get his 10% (or whatever the guaranteed return is) plus the kudos and connections with the HK, Macau and Guandong governments.

And we end up with a bridge no-one needs.

The fight for your right to form a party edition...

• Something to get the blood going: China's new East Asia co-prosperity sphere.
• The Kai Tak redevelopment mystery.
• Social darwinism in 19th century Asia.
• The White Terror in Taiwan and its modern meaning for Taiwan and China.
• The great Olympic mascot conspiracy.
• Who really won in Taiwan's weekend elections? At least they had elections.
• China blocks Blogspot...again.
• The head of China's environment protection administration resigned over the Songhua river debacle.
• When he's not busy running China, Wen Jiabao blogs.
• The oracle on the death penalty.
• The expat cost of living in Shanghai.
• Is Beijing allowing local media to get stronger to reign in provincial governments?
• Kamasutra redux: where sex is a religious quest.
• Hello Kitty in claymation. Why?
• Snickers bars with Chinese characteristics.
• Chinese economic pessimism.
• An academic discussion of Japan, China and war guilt.
• (14:45) China to develop new interpretation of Marxism: making the theory fit the facts.
• The Panda Pulitzers.
• China's efforts to become the next science superpower (via ZenPundit).

Once a year David Webb takes a break from his corporate and political governance activities and shares with the world his Christmas stock pick. He only chooses one, and inevitably the picks have given incredible returns. This time around he has recommended Fujikon. Below the fold is the share price chart of Fujikon. On Friday it closed at $1.40, before the report, today it is trading at $1.57. That's a 12% jump, or a rise in HK$63 million in the market capitalisation in the stock. You'll also notice on the graph below a marked increase in trading volume late last week - was that Mr. Webb's purchases or could word have leaked?

More importantly, for all of you students of finance, please explain to me how the efficient markets theory works again? Nothing has materially changed in this stock, except a solo operator put out an independent piece of research. He didn't discover anything new, or any non-public information.

About a month ago I noted a report that found China's estimated HIV population may be signficantly lower than the previously estimated 840,000. Now the SCMP reports on the problems officials are having with releasing that number:

Authorities are reportedly in a bind over how to announce a new and supposedly more accurate HIV estimate that is significantly lower than previous figures...Senior officials said the assessment was now being verified by the World Health Organisation and UNAids experts. However, UNAids said it was waiting for Chinese officials to finalise the assessment...

A government source also said the new assessment was significantly lower than the 2003 estimate of 840,000 HIV carriers. Although the final figure may change at the last minute, the new estimate could be up to 20 per cent lower than the original figure...

Government officials are reportedly concerned that the public would doubt the credibility of a new estimate, and question whether the difference was the result of patients dying from Aids over the years, or whether the government was playing down the gravity of the situation. Another worry is whether a lower-than-expected prevalence would dampen the enthusiasm of the central government and international agencies for injecting resources into Aids prevention and treatment.

A golden rule in customer service is to always underpromise and overdeliver, and to avoid the opposite.

So in the signs you don't expect to see in top 5 star hotels category...

It didn't work, despite repeatedly following instructions

The march on Sunday edition...

• The cultural gap between East and West in 1860. While on things historical, the latest history carnival is up.
• China's HIV fraudsters.
• Imagethief has a knowning and thoughtful reflection on the Singaporean hanging of an Australian and executions as public communication. The exact same applies to China.
• China is to ban using human organs of executed prisoners for transplants.
• Doing PR for China.
• Beijingers blindly adore reproductive organs. You mean there are people that don't?
• What must be done for positive change in China, or what will replace the CCP? This looks at some of the ideas I discussed about post-Communist China.
• Be an independent journalist in China at your own risk.
• Believe it...or not: North Korea is "happily free of AIDS".
• A digital online Buddhist library and museum.
• Taiwan's elections this weekend will have observers from Hong Kong and Macau. Are they there to observe or learn?
• (17:50) Fact of the day: it's a crime to have "sexual intercourse under pretense of marriage" in South Korea. One wonders what the alternatives are.
• Notes from a meeting with evoluntionary psychologist Robert Kurzban. Interesting and thought-provoking stuff.

The Article 45 Concern Group, a pro-democracy bunch of barristers, are turning themselves into a political party that "aspires to become Hong Kong's ruling party". What's the term for being ruled being a bunch of lawyers instead of civil servants? Is that an improvement?

Even more worryingly, those that deal with barristers on a daily basis are wholly unimpressed with them. For the third time in three months, the Court of Appeal is pissed off with slipshod lawyers appearing before them. If they can't get their briefs right how can they expect to rule the city?

So kids, if you're casting about for a profession, I can heartily recommend journalism. If you're lucky, you can follow Doug Crets and spend two days "reporting" from Laguna.

Two new posts up at the Forum:

1. Who was more influential on pop music, Dylan or Elvis?
2. The great Hong Kong retail rip-off.

And does anyone have egg tart suggestions?

• For World AIDS Day, the cover-up in Henan. As I said a couple of days ago, AIDS/HIV is the killer virus already in China. Start worrying more about that and less about bird flu. Fons reports on Shanghai's first AIDS themed restaurant.
• Does society form political systems or vice versa? The 88s asks could communism take root in America and can civil society rise again in China?
• Some great translations of Chinese intellectuals on democracy from Anti: A piece from democratic nationalist Wang Xiaodong, saying only modernised politics can save China's socialist reform; Liu Junning on taking the first steps towards democracy and Zhu Xueqin saying harmony originates from democracy.
• The quiet appreciation of the RMB and the dangerous game the PBoC is playing.
• Beijing fails to deliver on its honesty promise.
• An NPR reporter frets about the media's China coverage and rightly worries such reporting generates a self-fufilling prophecy of the China threat. (via Bingfeng)
• Sam Crane looks at the idea of a Confucian Commonwealth and finds it wanting.
• Japan's hidden arms trade.
• The Filipino diaspora.
• Japanese hybrids come to China. Another sign of growing environmental awareness in China.
• Why is saying good things about China mistaken for propoganda? It comes down to the difference between China and its government.
• America does a Pontius over Sino-Japan relations.
• Rajan on Singapore and Malaysia's mistake.
• Negotiation tips in China.
• It used to be phone books tied to phone boxes. Not any more.
• Happy first blogday to Riding Sun.
• Blogger Idler passed away. Like Mr Brown, deepest condolences.
• It's a good job the Taiwanese aren't racist.
• The controversial taking of photos in Singapore's MRT stations.
• Lessons in reading between the lines of Xinhua.
• Something for the SCMP and other newspapers to read. The future's coming, whether you like it or not. On a related note, a look at the massive potential of Scoopt for citizen photojournalism...until it's blocked.
• The end is here for the European dream: silver and gold Hello Kitty euros.

This month saw the launch of the Forums. Join in or start a topic of your own.

Thanks to the top referrers for October:

Instapundit
Rockson
Hemlock
Shaky Kaiser
Mr Brown
China Digital Times
ESWN

Thank you to everyone else who also linked and visited.

As usual, some site statistics for November:

* 25,028 unique visitors made 54,552 unique visits, reading a total of 250,786 pages,and drawing 8.36 GB of bandwidth.
* This equals 1,818 visitors per day reading 8,359 pages each day. In other words each visitor reads 4.59 pages on average. Each visitor returned on average 2.17 times during the month.
* 259 subscribe to this site's feed via Bloglines and 216 via Feedburner.
* 706% of you use IE, 16.1% Firefox, 2.9% Safari, 1.8% Mozilla, 1.2% Opera and 1% Netscape to browse this site. 87.3% of you use Windows, 4.9% Mac, 1.5% Linux.
* 29% of visits were via search engines, of which Google was 70.5% and Yahoo 22.8%. The top search phrases remained "Nancy Kissel", "Mu Mu China blog" (thank you, New York Times) and "Simon World", for which I retain my number one ranking. Phew.
* The most visited individual page was "Hong Kong's democracy timetable", thanks to an Instalanche.

Hong Kongers were outraged last night when their normally woeful TV viewing was interupted by a 5 minute pleading from Donald Tsang, Beijing's cheerleader in chief in Hong Kong, to stay at home on Sunday and to pass his electoral reforms. There was much debate whether these 5 minutes counted against the compulsory API quota for the night. And did The Don thank George W. for the idea?

A senior Tsang aide said that if the broadcast turned out to be popular with the public, it might turn out to be a regular part of Tsang's political repertory.

"We borrowed the idea from the president of the United States who appealed to the country on TV when he announced the US military invasion of Iraq," the aide said.

The biggest question was whether this plea was an own goal or a canny move by The Don to head off the expected large turn-out for Sunday's democracy march? Has The Don blundered on the one thing Beijing trusted he would sort out? Only time will tell.

As a first test of political skill, this is a big one. The Don must have a contingency plan. Ideally he would firm up his previous pledge to announce a timetable for universal suffrage during his second term, after 2007. In other words, set a timetable for a timetable. The democrats must then be prepared to accept that offer and hold him to it. Beijing has to sit back and shut up about it, trusting their man in Hong Kong to do right by both them and the people he supposedly represents. It's all long odds. But the alternative is worse - because at this stage there is none.

Full text of Tsang's speech below the jump.

Fellow Hong Kong citizens, as far as I can remember, former governors or the former chief executive had rarely spoken directly to the community on television about constitutional development issues. I have chosen to do so tonight because democratic development in Hong Kong will soon enter a defining stage in December. Will we be able to stride ahead? Or will we be left marching on the spot, going nowhere? The Legislative Council will have to make a decision in three weeks' time. At this crucial juncture, I feel that I must speak to you personally about my thoughts. Our proposed constitutional development package is a democratic package. It can enable Hong Kong to take a big step forward along the road to universal suffrage. It significantly enhances the democratic element of the method for selecting the chief executive by doubling the size of the Election Committee from 800 to 1,600. All the 400 District Council members directly elected by more than 3 million registered voters will be included in the Election Committee. For the 2008 Legco, the number of seats will increase by 10. Five will be returned through direct elections in the geographical constituencies. The other five will be elected from among the district councillors, and will likewise have an electorate base of 3 million voters.

Over the past few weeks, I have thought long and hard about whether we could develop a better and more feasible package. We all know that there are different views in Hong Kong about the pace of achieving universal suffrage. While some consider that the current pace of constitutional development as proposed in the package is not quick enough and would want to have universal suffrage for the chief executive and Legco elections as soon as possible, others are concerned that by moving too fast we may undermine the merits of the current system, which would impact negatively on balanced participation.

Our proposed package might not be all things to all people, but I believe that, after a long period of public consultation, it has given due regard to the aspirations of different sectors of the community. The proposed package has not come easily. So I personally appeal to you all: do not let the hard work and efforts of the past two years be wasted. I really cannot see any other option that can better suit Hong Kong's current circumstances, and be acceptable to all interested parties.

We are now facing a real danger of our democratic development coming to a halt. Some people insist that the government should propose a timetable for universal suffrage right now; otherwise, they will not support our reform package. Their stance puzzles me. Why should there be a conflict between supporting the government proposals - which advance democracy in Hong Kong - and wanting a road map and timetable for universal suffrage? How can the demands for a road map and timetable be served by rejecting the government proposals? What good will this do to democratic development in Hong Kong? Will this approach benefit the people of Hong Kong? Indeed, is this the wish of Hong Kong people?

Various opinion polls indicate that most Hong Kong people support our proposals. More importantly, a majority of Hong Kong people feel that the electoral arrangements for 2007 and 2008 should be handled separately from the issue of a timetable for universal suffrage. This underlines the pragmatism of Hong Kong people, who believe that constitutional development should not be hamstrung by the debate over a timetable for universal suffrage. They think we should pass the constitutional development package first so that we can move towards universal suffrage from 2007 and 2008.

To achieve the ultimate goal of universal suffrage, the first step will be for Legco to pass our proposals. As for a road map and timetable, I have pledged to discuss these matters in the Commission on Strategic Development and other channels as soon as possible. We cannot rush the matter; but we will not be playing for time either.

Fellow citizens, we are at a crossroads in our democratic development. If Legco passes our reform package, we will take a big step towards our goal of universal suffrage. With the success gained, there is a greater chance of reaching a consensus on how to achieve universal suffrage.

However, if the package were unfortunately voted down by Legco, then constitutional development for 2007 and 2008 would come to a halt. If this happens, how can we realistically expect to reach a consensus on proposals for the chief executive and Legco elections in 2012 and secure the necessary support from two-thirds of the legislators? Would rejecting our reform package bring us closer to our goal, or make it more distant?

We are one step away from advancing democracy in Hong Kong. I will do my utmost to secure legislators' support for our package. I fully support the move towards universal suffrage in accordance with the Basic Law, and there is also consensus among legislators to move towards that goal. There is no practical difference between us. The only difference is whether or not a timetable for universal suffrage should be linked to the proposals for the 2007 and 2008 elections. I hope that all legislators will cast their votes sensibly, with full regard to the overall interests and wishes of Hong Kong people.

Promoting democratic development is the common wish of the [Hong Kong] government and the Hong Kong people. It is also the established policy of the central government. Let us work together to push forward our constitutional development with a pragmatic attitude. Let's not miss this opportunity before us.

If we choose to mark time rather than stride ahead we will be further away from our goal of universal suffrage, not closer to it.