January 07, 2005

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China's gender problem

Yesterday China had its 1.3 billionth baby, unsurprisingly a boy. China has 120 boys for every 100 girlsand in some provinces 130:100 - the average worldwide is 105 boys to 100 girls. Indeed the PR gurus who managed yesterday's media event were disappointed the baby was a boy, according to the SCMP. They were hoping a girl would act as another reminder of the growing gender imbalance. China has 40 million more men than women as a result of the interaction of the one child policy and cultural preferences. The Government has tightened bans against gender detection and sex-selective abortions, although policing such bans are almost impossible. One wonders why it has taken so long.

However the future isn't all gloomy. What Government policy and culture distorts can be corrected by an extremely efficient mechanism - the market. Without wanting to be too crude, the "price" of women will continue to rise in the years ahead. More men will compete for the favour of fewer women. Women can become more selective about their mates. In time the value of having a baby girl will start to outweigh the perceived negatives. But this will take decades. In the meantime you literally have an army of Chinese men who are unlikely to find wives. That's a social problem beyond even the social engineering efforts of the CCP.

posted by Simon on 01.07.05 at 01:45 PM in the




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Comments:

Wow, that's a lot of people. The whole gender imbalance would take several generations to correct

posted by: Mr. Dew on 01.07.05 at 02:41 PM [permalink]

When I was researching the Chinese gender imbalance phenomenon over a year ago I learned that it is already illegal for a doctor administering ultrasound to even reveal the sex of a fetus, this to prevent sex selective abortions. So much for Chinese law, which a propaganda tool most of the time.

posted by: Ellen on 01.09.05 at 11:06 AM [permalink]

My HSK-textbook - yes, a strange source indeed - says that the whole gender imbalance isn't a problem at all: The figures look gloomy at first, but as the mortality rate for males is much higher than for girls, the problems has basically all but vanished by the time those kiddies will start thinking about marriage.

posted by: Hinrich on 01.10.05 at 05:54 PM [permalink]




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