It's official - China's director of statistics has decreed that China will grow at 8% for the next fifteen years, thereby allowing China and its population to arrive at the middle-income rank of countries globally. His department, known esoterically as the Calculation Department of National Economy of the National Bureau of Statistics, is in charge of making important pronouncements on the state of the nation. But they have been notoriously unreliable over the years, as Simon has pointed out in these pages, and given how boldly and confidently Mr. Xu Xianchun has made his prediction, one wonders how much it is a forecast and how much a statement of intent.

As some of you may know, I was a research analyst at an investment bank in a previous career, and also made predictions for a living. I learned during my time that if you were right about 60% of the time (yes, another statistic) you could be mighty pleased with yourself (uh huh, just like the meteorologists).

I also learned that it was when people made incredibly confident predictions like: "There is no end in sight for the growth of the Internet economy" (circa 2000), "There is no conceivable way Hong Kong will ever become a considerable port of trade" (circa 1844, Montgomery Martin, HK Colonial Treasurer) or "China will grow at 8% for the next 15 years" (circa 2005) that they are most likely to end up with egg on their face.

Don't get me wrong - it could happen - and I would be as happy as anyone else to see the continued growth of China's middle class (which will result in political liberalization). But no economy of China's size has ever grown this fast, at any time in history, without some speed bumps. Woe betide the Central government if they do not prepare for that eventuality.