November 03, 2004

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Where Zogby went wrong

A few weeks back I reported on a speech by John Zogby here in Hong Kong. Turns out he got it wrong on several counts:

  • Undecideds: turns out they probably did vote, given the rise in turnout, but they didn't break for Kerry as expected. Zogby said the candidates get 47% each just for showing up. If you take that then the undecideds broke at least 50/50 or even more for Bush. Obviously he could persuade them.
  • Tactics: Bush won Missouri 54/46, Colorado 53/47 and Arizona 55/45. Looks like Kerry got it right to give up on each of those.
  • Turnout: The conventional wisdom was a higher turnout benefits Kerry. Clearly that wasn't the case. Total votes is 115-120 million, well up on 2000, and far above Zogby's critical level of 107 million for a Kerry win. Bush is well ahead in the popular vote so clearly these extra voters broke far more for Bush than expected. The expected jump in the youth vote turned out to be a fantasy. Compensating for them in polling clearly lead to misleading poll numbers.
  • Bush's numbers: What does it say for the Democrats when Bush's job approval, country direction and deserve re-election numbers all were net negative and he still won?

He got it right on some things too:

  • Key States: New Hampshire went to Kerry; Bush is tied or ahead in Iowa. Florida wasn't as close as expected, nor was Pennsylvania...but Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin are all close.
  • The Running: The race was Kerry's to lose. And he lost. The Democrats could go one of several ways from here. If they go the Hilary for 08 route, they're stuffed. If they go the Edwards route, they'll have a shot, if Edwards can use the next 4 years to craft an effective political machine and message.
  • Nader: No impact, as expected.

Elsewhere, another look at where Zogby went wrong (via D/P).

posted by Simon on 11.03.04 at 04:22 PM in the


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Even pollsters are bias!
Zogby just got it wrong!
In this world of no absolutes, well Zobgy "absolutly" got it wrong!
Whether in the margin of error or not!
His electorial count was way of the mark!

posted by: Kris Ware on 11.17.04 at 12:10 AM [permalink]

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