March 15, 2004

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Spain's election. The Socialists won. This has led to heated comment from various members of the blogosphere. There's a real sense of anger and disappointment from many of the sites I read regularly and respect and indeed usually agree with. And that itself is disappointing.

The outpouring from these sites supposes two things:

1. The Spanish electorate have been cowed into submission by the bombings.
2. These writers know better than the electorate itself.

Spain is a big and diverse country. The ruling Popular Party was by no means perfect. Like many countries there are local and regional issues as well as nation-wide differences. However when something as drastic as the events of last week occur it is going to profoundly affect people. Enough to change some voters' minds. But the democratic system means the majority speak via a ballot box and that result stands, respected by all. Most of the people commenting have assumed that the terrorism issue became the only one that mattered. They have no way to back that up. Like most elections, even when rocked by such an event of magnitude so close to voting day, hinge on a multitude of issues. Voters weigh up decisions and cast their ballots accordingly. Perhaps the Socialists would have won even without the bombing. We can never know. It is incumbent upon the rest of us to respect this result. You may not like what France does either but it clearly is a Government elected by its populace and doing what it thinks is best for the country on that basis. The same applies to Spain. They have made their decision. It is their decision to make. The rest of the world can be disappointed, outraged, overjoyed or not give a rat's arse, but it is only a matter for the people of Spain. The electorate know what they are doing - they are exercising their right to decide. It is, after all, their country.

The second supposition is even more apparent. The disappointment with the Spanish result is one thing. But saying it is a loss in the war on terror is a massive assumption not backed by the facts. There is never one reason why an electorate votes for (or against) a particular party. Again the bombing was a large factor, but it was not the only one. The war on terror is not over. The withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq would have happened if the Socialists had won, regardless of last week's bomb. It was part of their platform. It is rather an electorate making its decision. The rest of us need to stand by and respect that. Lecturing the Spanish on their "folly" is in itself a mistake because it is attacking the very democratic norms the war on terror is trying to defend.

I am disappointed that the Spanish chose the Socialists. But to be honest, like most people, I don't know enough about Spain to know more about which party was better for Spain. It is far too simplistic to divide parties by pro or anti war on terror and leave it at that. Part of being a responsible voter is to investigate what each party stands for and make decisions based on that. While I do not think that most of Spain did that, I imagine that the average Spanish voter would know far more about each party than I (or others commenting from outside Spain) ever would. I reserve the right to disagree with whatever the Spanish Government now does, just like I do about various other Governments. But I cannot tell the Spanish people they've made the wrong decision. Because it's their decision to make.

That's the thing with democracy: it sometimes gives results you completely oppose. But it gives you an outlet to disagree at the same time. That's worth defending. It's up to each country (at least the Western democratic ones) to decide how to defend it themselves, and then work together to form an effective alliance against the forces against us.

posted by Simon on 03.15.04 at 06:29 PM in the




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Comments:

Aznar's party was leading comfortably in the polls on Wed. The Spanish economic situation os one of the best in Europe so no complaints there. All indications are that Aznar's party was going to extend its mandate.

Then the Bombing.

Th tragedy and the bungling PC reaction by the ruling party threw the election the other way. I am not sure there is any debate here. The bombing pushed the Socialists into power.

I understand the trauma and the rationale by what happened. Unlike others I am not angry or any other negative attitude towards Spain. YOu are right, it is a democracy and they have chosen.

I am however, concerned. Clearly, AQ will believe that this action was a victory and should be repeated. It makes it that much more likely that those countries with an election coming up are major targets for this kind of action.

posted by: kennycan on 03.16.04 at 11:49 AM [permalink]

Don't agree. Firstly, it doesn't follow that the bombing pushed the Socialists into power, and if it did so it was indirectly by increasing the turnout. It could quite easily have had a different outcome. It is not unknown for elections to produce unexpected results (think the last French Presidential election or the 1992 UK general election) and Simon is right that this is part and parcel of a democratic system.

Secondly, I can't think of any other countries where something similar could happen. Not in the European countries where the ruling parties were against the war, not in the UK where the main opposition party supported the war.

Terrorists are constantly looking for ways to achieve their ends, but very often their actions have unexpected outcomes. If this was one case where they got what they wanted (which I don't believe we can say for sure) there is every chance that next time it won't. The real impact is not the possible influence on the outcome of a general election, but the fact that a terrorist group can mount such a major attack on a European capital.

My guess is that the next attack will be something totally different, both in terms of the target and the timing.

posted by: Chris on 03.16.04 at 12:30 PM [permalink]




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