November 10, 2006

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400 Million Revolutionaries?

Some of you may have seen this headline already. Simply, state agencies in China have calculated that if the country did not have a one-child policy in place, it would have had 400 million more people.

Certainly the policy has borne fruit (just not of the baby variety!). China's economic growth could arguably have the policy to thank - and that growth would never have taken root if the large 4-7 children families of the past had continued to exist. Environmentally, if nothing else, it gives the world a bit more breathing room without that added consumption.

But surely now, as China begins to face up to its ageing population, exacerbated by illegal but nevertheless widespread sex-selective abortions, it will require a re-think on this strategy. Many seem to now be debating the wisdom of such a policy with these issues, particularly now in a China that is permissive about sex (but apparently not with the consequences!).

I do not want to get into that argument now. But I would say is this: I think the reason the CCP has not moved on this policy has to do with demographics. As I believe I've mentioned once before, the baby boom generation in America were born just after World War II, and came of age in the 1960s. There was probably a substantial correlation between the youth movements and protests of that era, and the demographic bulge in the 20-something age group. Does China perhaps fear the same? That if they allowed people to have more babies, and this would cause a youth surge that could potentially doom the Communist Party?

posted by HK Dave on 11.10.06 at 02:48 PM in the China people category.




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