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March 01, 2006
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Unreliable Chinese statistics
Sure it's only about 3 weeks old, but I heartily recommend the 88s look at the (un)-reliability of Chinese statistics and follow the comments for further debate. Then recall this is the world's sixth biggest economy and most populous nation. Finally ask yourself what's more dangerous - flying a plane blind or with deliberate misinformation?
As I've discussed previously, the problem comes about because those who compile the statistical data are also measured by the results. The natural incentive is to report flattering numbers to help your career and prospects, irrespective of the truth. The simple and obvious solution is to have an independent statistics agency which collects, compiles and disseminates the data. But there's plenty of vested interests to keeping the status quo. It's a classic clash of specific vested interests overriding the broader public interest. That assumes that governments work for the public interest...
On a related theme, a pessimistic look at the durability of China's economic boom and the dark side of China's rise (via MR). And Mark Thoma notes there is a historical precedent for a Western nation maintaining a long term trade imbalance with China.posted by Simon on 03.01.06 at 10:37 AM in the China economy category.
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Just how reliable are those numbers?
Excerpt: Simon has a great post on all these economic statistics we get from Chiner...Then recall this is the world's sixth biggest economy and most populous nation. Finally ask yourself what's more dangerous - flying a plane blind or with deliberate misinforma...
Weblog: GZ Expat, Part II
Tracked: March 5, 2006 07:31 PM
Academic researchers in China seek out data from other nations. Professors at the university where I taught begged for data from Taiwan. Why? Because they know any data they get from the Chinese government is both flawed and faked.posted by: dave on 03.02.06 at 10:48 AM [permalink]