October 20, 2005

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China's economic bullet train

China's latest economic data (admittedly, take with a grain of salt):

3rd quarter GDP: +9.4% (forecast 9.2%)
Jan-Sep industrial output: +16.3% on year earlier
Jan-Sep fixed asset investment: +26.1% on year earlier
Jan-Sep urban fixed asset investment: +27.7% on year earlier
Jan-Sep retail sales: +13% on year earlier
Jan-Sep CPI: +2% on year earlier
Jan-Sep PPI: +5.4% on year ealier

Low inflationary strong growth continues. It is, quite frankly, amazing.

posted by Simon on 10.20.05 at 11:29 AM in the China economy category.


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Trawling around the internet today I came across an item on China Daily/Xinhua which I understand is used for official announcements in the PRC. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced a doubling of "Per capita GNP" for the period 2000 to 2010 - what exactly does this mean? If straight forward compound interest is used then a growth rate of 7.2% for 10 years means a doubling of GNP during that period of 10 years. If growth rates of 9.5% have been achieved for the first 5 years of the 10 year period what will be the growth rate for the last 5 years? According to my simple arithmetic this is a growth rate of less that 7% p.a.

In view of the figures you have shown
you would think that at least they would try to sing the same tune at the same time. I wonder how many different departments in Beijing are producing different statistics for different officials?


posted by: Algernon on 10.21.05 at 12:32 AM [permalink]

You've also got to allow for population growth in per capital GDP. If it's about 2% a year (a quick search should find the true figure) that's the difference. As population growth slows thanks to the one child policy, then your maths comes into play.

posted by: Simon on 10.21.05 at 10:20 AM [permalink]

Yeah, population growth dilutes national GDP growth. i think the pop growth is closer to 1% for China. (CIA said 0.58% this year)

Also, setting the target of 2x in 10 year in rough+conservative estimate.

Deng wanted 4x from 1980 to 2000. I think it was achieved at least 5 years earlier, before Deng went to see Karl Marx.

posted by: sunbin on 10.21.05 at 03:59 PM [permalink]

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