October 17, 2005
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Harold Brown talk notes
Cross-posted at Andrés Gentry
On October 6 Harold Brown, former Secretary of Defense during the Carter Administration, came to UCSD to give a talk at an IR/PS Dean's Roundtable. His topic was "Managing Change: China and the U.S. in 2025". I attended his talk and following are the notes I took. Any errors are mine alone.
1. Earlier spoke at Rand China Forum
2. Clear major new force is rise of China
3. In 2025, what will US and China look like?
4. Will pass over military balance question. Just says if US defense spending is level US will continue to be the biggest power in the world and the West Pacific
5. China’s foreign policy is global
6. China is a rising power: historically leading power/rising power changes have yielded conflicts: this isn’t encouraging
7. Energy consumption effects
9. Managing US/China relations
10. He’s fundamentally optimistic: common threats and concerns will trump genuine differences and conflicts of interest
Question and Answer Session
1. China Navy: submarine fleet? Local San Diego naval leaders worry about it
2. US Navy is smaller than before, so how to be optimistic?
3. Higher education: is it in US long-term interests to educated Chinese in US universities and thus help China to catch up to US?
4. Pros/Cons of Chinese buying US companies?
5. Chinese leadership has many scientists and engineers. What’s the effect?
6. Oil in South China Sea: is this a source of conflict in that area?
7. What will Chinese leadership look like in 2025?
8. Robert Barnett just wrote a book separating world in the connected and unconnected worlds. US trying to make an enemy of China to justify their budgets. What do you think of the book?
9. Doesn’t believe USSR is an apt comparison to China: thinks Korea is a better comparison. Big concern is their legal system and protection of intellectual property
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