Dave,

I think I'm going to go with what's behind door number 2.

The Chinese are accustomed to doing everything as a collective group. People here really aren't use to independent travel, but given the way society is changing here and the way the rich look at themselves, I'd be willing to bet that in the coming years we will see more and more independent Chinese travelers.

What do you think?

Bet a beer on it?

I think you're right, Gordon. The outbound Chinese market is mostly packaged-based at the moment, but the Chinese that have the money prefer to do things their own way. In Hong Kong, a lot of the people that sign up for 'tours' end up ditching their guides and striking off on their own.

Also, there are marked differences in how northern Chinese and southern Chinese travel. The Hong Kong Tourism Board has noted that northern Chinese tend to be more interested in history and culture, whereas the more earthy Cantonese, for instance, tend to place greater emphasis on food and shopping.

However, beyond these massive generalizations, I shall posit an even greater one - Western tourists toting Lonely Planets tend to be cynical, authenticity-craving visitors. LP's massive success over the last two decades attests to the triumph of these attitude to tourism in the West. However, Chinese tourists are still fascinating by the spectacle, the traditional dances, etc. When that will change is open to question. Is the Western mode of travel more sophisticated or advanced? Or is it just different? Many people assume the former because Western tourists thirty or fourty years ago also liked that sorts of thing, but on the whole seemed to 'grow out of it.' But whether that will also be happening in China is really anyone's guess...

Good question, Dave,
I believe if Chinese tourists could surmount certain obstacles, they would prefer the independent tour for sure. For example, they have to be able to speak or read basic english to get around. They may need an international driver license to rent a car... However, only a small percentage of Chinese tourists is confident enough to travel Brittain independently regarding their language and other surviving skills for now. I am not sure how many percentage will be added in the next 10 years. Although this trend will be positive, probably you can only partition those with some international experience already into the market for independent tourists?

By the way, forgive my ignorance, is "lucky dog" really an American slang?
Sorry, one more silly question, Anyboby use "running dog" in english?
looks like the Guardian reporter pictured Ma in his interesting article as a "running dog" or I am just too sensitive-:)

Hi Lin,

Thanks for your comments. I think you are right, many people from China will take the package tour route first until they feel comfortable enough to branch out on their own. It just seems to me though (this is an impression, not a statistic) that more wealthy Chinese speak more English than do Japanese of the equivalent income level. That may mean faster movement towards a 'comfort zone' in terms of independent travel.

"Lucky dog" is an American slang, but you generally do not use it to describe yourself. It often refers, in jest, to another person's prowess in regard to members of the opposite sex. "Running dog" means collaborator, and was a particularly popular in regard to native people that co-operated with Western colonial regimes (i.e. imperialist running dog). But it has fallen out of common usage for the time being...

My observation is that the age of the travelers tends to be the determining factor. Group travel takes care of language barrier, airport in-out procedure, local transportation, and the most important of all: food. I see few elderly Chinese that can go on a diet of western food for a week or two without complaining. The tour package operators usually arrange mainly Chinese restaurants in the itinerary with some local food eateries thrown in as a token representation. Group tour will remain popular as evident in Taiwan and HK.

There is very little independent travel guide book in Chinese. English speakers tend to take for granted the availability of information. I remember meeting some of young Japanese backpacker in youth hostels. They all have this same series of travel book similar to Lonely Planet in Japanese. I suppose that when there are more LP type guide books available in Chinese, I think we may see a few more young adventurous Chinese independent travelers.

Thank you, Dave!
Thus the girl in the Guardian's report didn't use the slang correctly, neither did I -:)
Somemtimes it's just difficult to tell those subtle differences. And your words also remind me that I might have confused or even hurt some people at some places (such as pekingduck) without knowing it. :P
I think Michael's partitioning using the age is just brilliant.
In order to dig the business out from this "new" market, look like instead of "pull", a "push" strategy has to be used, which may not be easy for a small firm?
By the way, I don't think the influence of guide books may be relavant for mainland Chinese. From my limited experience, Chinese tend to use travel forums while they are planning their independent tour. "Sina", "Ctrip" and many other onlince communities have accumulated a humongous amount of info for domestic travelers. The traveler board at "mitbbs" also has a lot of foreign traveling experiences and tips from oversea's Chinese students' prospectives. Few people use books as I know even if they understand english.