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May 02, 2005
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A-Bian Gets Trapped
A guest post by Kelvin, because Simon hasn't stopped the party yet. :P The Communist Party of China is an incredible entity: one moment it'd look like a bumbling buffoon, the next moment it's whipping the butt of its political opposition. Of course, the people of Hong Kong already well know how good the CCP is at making its opponents look like jerks. Now the folks in Taiwan get a glimpse of the CCP's dexterity. Consider, for example, how A-Bian and the DPP gets totally creamed by the CCP and KMT on the issue of the mainland's guided missiles: Step one: the DPP tells Lien Chan that he's not allowed to do anything serious. In the press release from the President's Office, President Chen Shui-bian wishes Lien Chan a successful trip, and reminds Lien does not have authorization from the government, and cannot legally sign any agreement with the mainland related to national sovereignty or government authorities. Chen also anticipates meeting with Lien after his return to Taiwan. Step two: the DPP admonishes Lien for, um, not doing anything serious. Hu Jintao and Lien Chan agreed to work toward resuming talks, avoiding a military confrontation, and strengthening trade and investment relations. But Joseph Wu [Minister for the Mainland Affairs Council] points out that these are empty promises, and says that Lien's visit can be said to be the “five nots”: not making mainland China recognize the truth in the existence of the “Republic of China,” not making mainland China correctly understand the value of democracy and freedom in Taiwan, not making mainland China reduce its belligerence toward Taiwan and lowering its missile threat, not giving Taiwan the freedom to participate internationally with dignity, and not making mainland China correctly understand the extreme displeasure of the people of Taiwan against the Anti-Secession Law and non-peaceful methods. Step three: the CCP releases the trap, pointing out its own generosity and that the KMT was handicapped from seizing the deal of the century. Media in Taiwan are reporting that during Lien Chan's meeting with Hu Jintao, the issue of a cross-strait “peace agreement” came up. Hu actively proposed that if both sides returned to the foundations of the “Understanding of 1992,” eliminate belligerence, and both sides sign a peace agreement, then the mainland “can naturally remove the missiles.” The KMT side, however, understanding that they do not have government authorization, did not approach or reply to the offer. End result:
EastSouthWestNorth has more on the impact of the CCP's new approach and how it's affecting Taiwanese politics. posted by Kelvin on 05.02.05 at 08:30 AM in the Blogging category.
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Comments:
Actually, I think the result is more like this... CPC: Look good to one China types and bad to Taiwanese independence types. KMT: Look good to one China types and bad to Taiwanese independence types. DPP: Look bad to one China types and good to Taiwanese independence types. Which is really not a major change from the status quo. The only major change is that the KMT is now holding hands with the CPC, realizing that the CPC is better equipped to realize the KMT's original vision: that of a unified, authoritarian China. Which the DPP doesn't like. Again, not a major change. posted by: Joe on 05.02.05 at 10:38 AM [permalink]Yah when you read the polls posted on ESWN, they're still split on partisan lines, but there's hints that independents are, at the very least, curious, and DPP supporters aren't totally dismissing the Lien visit. But this is just the first step: if you look at HK you really get the sense of what the CCP is trying to accomplish, and that is to slowly delegitimize its opponents. Pan-democrats expected big gains in the last LegCo election (gains that will overcome their inherent institutional disadvantage), but came up short. Likewise, this thing puts the brakes on pan-green momentum after the Anti-Secession Act. Remember that there were plenty of ROC flags (representing pan-blues) flying at that Taipei rally too: I doubt those faces will be as willing to play softball with A-Bian anymore. posted by: Kelvin on 05.02.05 at 11:26 AM [permalink]I agree that this has been quite a coup for the KMT, and that the DPP have come out of it looking petty. However, I really don't buy into this "Chen Shui Bian is looking increasingly isolated" idea ... from an international (or mainland Chinese) perspective, that may be true; but from an internal Taiwanese politics perspective it's not. Consider this equivalent situation: internationally GWB has looked increasingly isolated over his support for the war in Iraq. And yet he got reelected as a result of that war. (Replace GWB with John Howard, or Tony Blair in a week, and the statement is the same). It'll be interesting to see how the KMT handle the relationship with the CCP in the future. A delicate relationship, if ever i've seen one! posted by: David on 05.02.05 at 11:47 AM [permalink]Yah I can see your point about A-Bian not being isolated. But as I've said, this is a long-run thing. And the Iraq analogy is quite good, because if there is anything that the Lien visit accomplished, it's to rally the base on both sides. posted by: Kelvin on 05.02.05 at 12:26 PM [permalink] |
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