March 31, 2005
Jamestown Foundation China Brief
Each fortnight the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief has several well written, though provoking articles of interest. The most recent edition has four, all of which are great reading. I've excerpted a taste of each but read them all:
How China handles itself in its foreign relations will affect how the world views it, either as an obstacle to peace, or a status quo nation that has a vested interest in supporting international systems and global good governance. China's quest for energy to fuel its domestic economic growth is not inherently a detrimental event for other major oil importers. However, developed nations should reconcile different approaches to international partnerships and encourage China to promote transparency, good governance and responsible behavior with its partner nations. As a nation with a growing stake in globalization, China will increasingly see that its core interests extend beyond its domestic economy and are largely aligned with developed nations. As such, China's strong relationships with nations such as Iran and Sudan present an opportunity for the U.S. and Europe to work with China to bring about behavior change in difficult and marginalized nations and bring them into the world community.I couldn't agree more. That one's for you, Bill.
Taiwan, therefore, seems destined to be caught between the Sino-Japanese power struggles over Asian dominance. Strategic, historical, cultural and economic determinants make Taiwan a crucial factor in a number of contentious issues, not least of which is the future of America's role in the Asia-Pacific.People often overlook the key role Japan has to play in the Taiwan issue. Slowly Japan will take more of the "load" from America over Taiwan, perhaps as a quid pro quo for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
...these consequences have great significance for Russia, and will also undoubtedly add to the complexities of Japanese and Indian defense decision making. If Moscow loses its best source of leverage on China, how will that affect the future of Sino-Russian relations as well as the status of Russia's defense industrial complex? What will the end of the embargo mean for Indo-American, Indo-European, and Indo-Russian relations or for the future of the relationship between Taiwan and America? How will Japan react to this development? At this stage none of those questions can be answered with any reliability or certainty. But these are among the real and critical issues which will emerge once the EU makes its decision.It's an important part of the arms embargo decision that I for one hadn't given much thought to.
4. Bridging the Gap: PRC missile modernization and the changing deterrence environment. This one you need to read in its entirity.
As I said, read them all.posted by Simon on 03.31.05 at 03:52 PM in the
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“China would ultimately not be able to veto Japan's candidature outright (and publicly), but it could try to "dampen" Tokyo's regional and international ambitions by tying its endorsement to some concessions from Japan.”
Are you kidding me? This thing has totally spiraled out of the government's hands: there is no way that China can NOT veto a Japanese bid if it comes down to such action.posted by: Kelvin on 04.01.05 at 05:21 AM [permalink]
All good stuff and the last one got a "yikes!" out of me. Thanks for sharing this.posted by: Eagle! on 04.01.05 at 11:02 AM [permalink]