China has made much of its latest crackdown of gambling, especially on cadres (although it hasn't hurt Macau). But the gambling culture runs strong in China so Beijing has instead to try a new wager: the Hong Kong legal gamble. Beijing does not want to look like it is interfering in Hong Kong affairs, even though it plainly is. Having to re-interpret the Basic Law again so the replacement Chief Executive (CE) serves only the remainder of Tung Che-hwa's term instead of the 5 years the Basic Law mandates is being avoided for fear of a backlash over mainland intervention. Various heavyweight Government and legal types from Beijing have been trotted out to tell Hong Kong that it is "clear" the new CE's term should only be two years. In fact it is an amazing skill that China has prefected: being able to re-understand words and meanings to suit their cause.

China is hoping that is enough. But the door remains open to a legal challenge in Hong Kong. Should Hong Kong's highest courts rule the new CE should serve a 5 year term the situation returns to the same as in the famous "right of abode" case. Beijing will be forced into a re-interpretation of the Basic Law causing an even greater backlash. If Beijing are determined to force a 2 year term on the new CE, they should get it over and done with now. It's a bet with very poor odds and a mis-step by the usually politically astute Chinese leadership. As the saying goes, a backlash now is better than a bigger backlash later.