November 19, 2004

You are on the invidual archive page of Look before you leap. Click Simon World weblog for the main page.
Look before you leap

There is a gathering sense of excitement over hints of change in North Korea. It's misplaced.

Firstly the facts. North Korea is not a font of information, but here is the speculation: Kim Jong-il was said to have disappeared from public life, grieving for his wife and Bush's re-election. Some of Kim Jong-Il's portraits were removed from public places, perhaps on his own orders. Finally, the media stopped referring to him as the "Dear Leader", instead listing his myriad other titles.

Bloggers have been all over it. Roger Simon was getting excited, saying this might be the start of a freedom movement in NK. Mega Pundit calls it a North Korean revolution. Dean reports Kim may have just survived an assassination attempt and it is forcing Kim into making reforms. Alisa says this all justifies Bush's NK policy. Glenn is puzzled by what it all means. Conrad notes if it is true then Kim's second career in the PGA is set.

Predictably North Korea is calling it a Yankee plot. Joshua notes the least likely scenario is some kind of Pyongyang Spring or NK perestroika. Marmot noted the pictures have been down for some time.

Let's look at a few things. This is the most secretive Government in the world. It has been ruled by the Kims for 60 years in tyrannical fashion. The abuse of human rights, the famines, the death camps, the secret development of nukes are well known. North Korea is insular, cult-driven with a philosophy of Juche (self-reliance). You are telling me that because of Bush's re-election and some heart-ache this despot, who has been born and bred to rule, is now just quietly keeling over and giving the game away? I doubt it. When KJI first assumed the leadership there were doubts over his grip on power. That was 10 years ago. Until this week (albeit with the caveat of limited information) no-one doubted absolute control rested KJI's hands. Over that time he has cemented control by appointing loyalists into positions of power. There is and has never been anything like an effective opposition in NK. Even if the top military brass were originally wary of KJI, he has put his own generals in charge. Let me repeat that point. There is no likely source of opposition to Kim's rule. The only way KJI will lose power is if he gives it up himself. There is no coup, no opening up, no new dawn.

I do hope that these are signs that things are changing in NK. Perhaps KJI has gone through an uncharacteristic change of heart and decided to give the game way. But I fear co-incidences and rumours are being spun into something greater. People are adding one plus one and getting 78. You needcold, hard and irrefutable proof before you can get excited.

posted by Simon on 11.19.04 at 06:03 PM in the




Trackbacks:

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://blog.mu.nu/cgi/trackback.cgi/55382


Send a manual trackback ping to this post.


Comments:

Simon, I hope I did not sound as naive as you seem to have gotten the impression:-) And, of course, my justification of Bush's policy should be preceded with the words "if any of this is true". Still, there is always an opposition, at least in potential. There is always someone who feels slighted, or envious, or whatever. A dictator can never trust anyone.

Another thing I have observed while living in a totalitarian society is that specific rumors pertaining to the members of the ruling elite more often than not turn out to be true. I have no logical explanation for this - it's a hunch I have, and I could very well be wrong.

I am not at all trying to negate any of your arguments, and by no means I am ready to declare NK Spring. Furthermore, with all the sympathy I have for ordinary NKoreans, my foremost concern is the nukes, and their possible use against a country outside NK. Viewed in that light, Bush's re-election is not a negligible factor in determining KJI behavior.

posted by: Alisa on 11.21.04 at 12:12 AM [permalink]

Fair points, Alisa. I just don't see a viable potential opposition in a country that has been ruled so totally by one man and his son forso long.

posted by: Simon on 11.22.04 at 10:39 AM [permalink]




Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember your info?










Disclaimer