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July 16, 2004
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Fighting history and each other
China's decided it has to do something about its massively unbalanced sex ratio - there are currently 120 boys for every 100 girls. The average ratio is about 105:100. They're a little vague on details, mostly because it is perhaps the first time a Government has decided to fight 2,000 years of culture and history. China's traditional preference for boys and the one-child policy inevitably lead to this imbalance, despite attempts to prevent it. Sex-selective abortions are common. India, facing the same issues, banned tests to determine the sex of foetuses. However like China the economic incentives for most people, especially the rural poor, will continue to push the sex ratio towards more boys. While Government efforts can help, the only real way change will be achieved is over time. Slowly the "price" of girls (reflected in expected doweries) will rise and the incentives for having girls will balance and likely eventually surpass having boys. So in the end it is economics that will beat culture and history, not law. Score another victory for the dismal science. UPDATE: The Guardian has an article talking about the incentives being offered and the problem: "Wife-selling, baby-trafficking and prostitution are all expected to increase as the first generation born under the one-child policy hits the normal marriage age...The Chinese government is increasingly accepting free market principles in the business field, but state intervention continues to guide demographic policy. Two laws have been passed banning gynaecologists from telling pregnant women the sex of a foetus once it is confirmed by ultrasound checks. But as doctors are increasingly more dependent on private income, many accept payments to reveal the gender and find an excuse for an abortion if it is a girl." Here in Hong Kong the creative excuses department has been working overtime. The SCMP reports: Two mainland Public Security Bureau officers caught in Hong Kong with a pair of handcuffs last month were on a sightseeing trip with five staff of a rental car company, mainland officials have told Hong Kong security chiefs.Maybe it is all just a misunderstanding: they might have been looking for the sex-dens of Mongkok and ended up in a stakeout on Mount Davis Road by mistake. It does happen, you know. By the way, would you like to purchase a small share in my new bridge across (the ever-shrinking) Victoria Harbour? Lastly former Chinese President and Central Military Commission (read head of the PLA) chairman Jiang Zemin has put a deadline on Taiwan's return to the mainland: 2020. The Chinese article is here (via V-Man). The SCMP reports on the article: Central Military Commission chairman Jiang Zemin has warned that Taiwan's return to the mainland must be resolved by 2020 and that the military is capable of stopping an independence bid by the island..."The Taiwan issue cannot be indefinitely dragged on ... The Taiwan leadership is so bold as to initiate the Taiwan independence movement. Our military has the capability and strategy to defeat it."That's not as far away as you think. And China has a habit of sticking to deadlines. While most of the world is focussed on the Middle East as the world's trouble spot, it is going to be East Asia that will be the next "hot spot" with both Taiwan and the Koreas likely to develop into more serious international problems. posted by Simon on 07.16.04 at 09:32 AM in the
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