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July 07, 2004
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Dreaming
The Standard reports on a poll that in the days following the July 1st march 67% of Hong Kongers want Beijing to reconsider universal suffrage in 2007/8, and 75% think HK Chief Executive should represent the city's democractic aspirations to Beijing. The democrat camp has a meeting with Tung today, as Tung finally shows some political nouce. There are several issues at play here. Firstly the 530,000 figure for marchers is rapidly becoming gospel for the media. ESWN has been tracking this issue and the true number appears to be around 220,000 (at the bottom of the post). It is still a large number of people but the organisers do not do themselves credit by over-estimating the turnout. Secondly Hong Kong's democrats are now looking for a triumph of hope over experience. Beijing will not change its mind over the 2007/8 elections. They are not in the habit of giving in to people power and aren't going to start now. Again ESWN has a great article on the issue. His basic argument is HK's democrats need to prove they are better than just rally organisers - they need to prove to Beijing they can actually govern China's richest city properly. He argues that communication directly with Beijing is the key. I'll go further. The democrats need to realise they've lost this battle if they want to win the war. It is time to accept that 2007/8 elections will not happen. What can happen is elections based on universal suffrage in 2012. It seems a long time, but the groundwork can be laid now. In politics expectations are a key part of the game, so the democrats need to start creating the expectation of direct elections in 2012. And not just with the HK public. They need to directly engage and negotiate with the Central Government. This leads to my last point. Tung Che-hwa is not Hong Kong's representative with the Beijing authorities. He is their appointee; he is their representative in Hong Kong. His mandate comes from Beijing and he is answerable to them. He can act as a conduit and is seemingly moving in that direction. But he will never be Hong Kong's champion amongst the Beijing authorities. He is and will remain the middleman. That is his role and Hong Kong should realise that. The conclusion is simple: Hong Kong can still strive for democracy. But the game of politics requires knowing when to cut your losses for the greater good. Now is that time. Start aiming at 2012 and forget about the done deal that is 2007/8. posted by Simon on 07.07.04 at 11:38 AM in the
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Comments:
Actually this isn't the time to cut your losses. The Chief Executive and Chief Secretary have both stuck to their guns that they have already effectively communicated the wishes and desires of Hong Kong's people to the leaders in Beijing. If you actually believe that, then you might also actually believe ESWN when he says he doesn't care about how many people really marched or his 220,000 number. Let's just say that growing up, if I'd tried to use physics like he does, I would have been declared a flat earther. It'd take me 30 seconds to disprove all of his calculations, but as he did with Hong Kong Reporter, he'd just dismiss them as hearsay and the work of some Maoist-style United Front or perhaps some American imperialist running dog. *titter* To paraphrase Woody Allen: As for that great article the original author takes the financial analysts fears for Hong Kong and flips them on their head to blame the democrats. If you base arguments upon false postulates, your arguments are wrong. Logic 101 Beyond that he offers this... Followed in the next graf by this... *titter* Points taken Tom, but we will have to agree to disagree. Tung again today confirmed he has no interest and Beijing have no interest in re-opening the debate on 2007/8. It's a lost cause and useless wasting more energy on it. Time to focus on 2012, and making Beijing live up to their rhetoric that says they believe in elections eventually. As for the article, I agree with the author that the democrats in HK have proved themselves good at organising marches and opposing things, but they rarely seem to be able to present themselves as a viable alternative...yet. That is something that will come in time, but they need to work on it now. posted by: Simon on 07.08.04 at 11:45 AM [permalink] |
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