You're the nominal head of Government. The biggest political debate affecting the future of the entire political system is raging around you. There are daily press reports; street protests; stern words from your overlords as they take control. You've got to look like you're doing something. So you spend some time thinking about it, and come out with complete drivel.

After spending all this time, with at least theoretically some of the best minds working on it, you come up with only nine "factors" to consider, which I've paraphrased below (link here for those interested in the full thing):

1. Beijing matters most
2. This is serious, but Beijing matters most
3. The chief exec rules no matter what, unless Beijing says otherwise
4. Same as rule 3, just rewritten to look like a new one
5. Universal sufferage will come to Hong Kong, slowly (145 years is about right).
6. Public opinion matters. It just comes after the opinion of Beijing, the chief exec, the LegCo, the business cartel, the pets of the Beijing cadres, snakes, loyal members of the CCP and of course Beijing.
7. All changes have to make sure the business cartels still have a say.
8. Any changes must make sure Beijing is looked after first.
9. If changes hurt the economy, then they can't happen. If they hurt Beijing, they can't happen. If they hurt me, they can't happen. In fact, they can't happen.

If he really tried he could have come up with more.

What continues to amuse me is all of these reports, task-forces, committees and so on are trying to put a lid on the problem. But the genie is out of the bottle. As I've said before, when half a million people turn out again to march on July 1, all this paper and hot air will be worthless and Tung and Beijing will find themselves facing a bigger problem than ever. And with no way to contain it without resorting to one of two drastic measures: a) give in and allow some form of democracy or b) a show of force that would scare everyone into submission. Don't doubt option b) as a choice - a few arrests, lengthy jail terms, tear gas. Beijing, when faced with problems with no other solutions, aren't afraid to use force.

The real stupidity is they could allow some very limited form of democracy and contain the problem. People wouldn't be happy, but it would hold them for long enough. For example, give people a short list of three Chief Execs to choose from. Of course suddenly Beijing gives up some of it's leash, but it's a small price to pay compared to the alternatives.

Finally isn't it interesting that at the same time Donald Tsang's expensive task force submitted their second report on the same day? Actually not really, given it's more drivel. May as well shovel out as much of the stuff as you can all at once. What Tung needs now is another Harbour Fest so everyone can get worked up about that instead.