March 30, 2004

You are on the invidual archive page of Switches. Click Simon World weblog for the main page.
Switches

China's going to pop an artery in response to re-elected Taiwan President Chen's comments in this article. Again Chen has stated the obvious and for his troubles he will cop it from all sides: from his opponents in Taiwan for being honest, the CCP for being honest, and the USA for disturbing the status quo. That's the problem with common sense: people don't want to hear it. What is also ridiculous with the China/Taiwan question is the ongoing diplomatic battle they wage for recognition:

Just days after Chen's narrow election to a second four-year term that faces an opposition challenge, China further isolated the island it claims as a rebel province by winning over one of Taiwan's few diplomatic allies, Dominica. Only 26 countries now recognize Taipei and not Beijing.
Holy crap, Batman, Dominica has changed to China, no doubt in return for a nice dollop of aid. Well I'd better change my position on the whole question now if Dominica has. Why these two states continue this stupid diplomatic game is beyond me - is it really worth the soft loans, the aid, the contracts in return for some tin-pot island to say they recognise you instead? Apparently so, but if I were a taxpayer of Taiwan I'd be asking the question.

As Chen points out recent events in Hong Kong also do not bode well:

Chen also chastised Beijing for blocking democratic reforms in Hong Kong, a move that he said would make Taiwan even more determined to reject unification with China, the [Washington] Post said. "Right now, the people of Hong Kong are fighting for direct elections...but the Beijing authorities are unable to consent. They even say, 'Wait another 30 years and we'll see'," he said. "I think this is very ridiculous," Chen said. "For the 23 million people of Taiwan, this is the greatest warning and also the clearest signal," he said.
The reality is despite the best efforts of Beijing to appear otherwise there is a significant amount of Taiwanese money in China. This kind of talk is great for Hong Kong, because HK acts as the conduit between the mainland and Taiwan. Statements like this and China's predictable vitriolic response* means this happy state of affairs will continue for some time yet. It also means the One Country Two Systems formula is completely dead as a solution to the Taiwan problem. The real stupidity of it all is Beijing could have conceded a limited form of democracy in HK, placated a large part of the populace, used the Basic Law as a cover and the problem would have gone away and it could have given the people of Taiwan an important signal.

Look for another big march this July in HK. The economy may be better but the politics is a lot worse.

*which will come, as night follows day, given they can publish a human rights progress report with a straight face.

(Article via Conrad)

posted by Simon on 03.30.04 at 06:13 PM in the




Trackbacks:

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://blog.mu.nu/cgi/trackback.cgi/9839


Send a manual trackback ping to this post.


Comments:

Except, what would Beijing have done when the people of, say, Shanghai or Senzhen began to as why they too shouldn't be entitled to the same democratic rights extended to their fellow Chinese in Hong Kong.

The only way the central government's actions make sense is if they are convinced that granting democracy in HK will lead to their ultimately loosing control of the mainland. I suspect that they may be right about that too.

posted by: Conrad on 03.30.04 at 06:36 PM [permalink]

I'm not sure I buy that "thin edge of the wedge" argument anymore. Hong Kong is clearly an exception with the Basic Law clearly stating a path to democracy, no matter how Beijing interprets it. Hong Kong only became a part of the Motherland in 1997 with a different set of rules to the rest of China, hense its designation as a "Special Adminstrative Region". The CCP have tinkered with democracy at a village level and in the (very) long run pressure will build on a larger scale, especially because as people get wealthier they want a greater say in protecting and increasing that wealth. It will one day even outweigh the CCP's power to control.

I see Beijing's moves in HK recently as a firm re-establishment of its authority because that's what they know. Which means HK no longer really exists as an SAR, because now twice (with right of abode and now democracy) Beijing has overriden the Basic Law. The blessing is the CCP's reaction to dissent in HK hasn't been as drastic as in 1989.

posted by: Simon on 03.30.04 at 06:47 PM [permalink]




Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember your info?










Disclaimer